I wrote up my answer lol, let me know what yall think.
Chance: 70%
Pros:
- Xenoblade X’s timing makes it a prime target for representation, launching in april 2015 in Japan whereas the roster was likely finalized around summer 2016, A year and a half off from the release of the next game in the series, Xenoblade Chronicles 2.
- Extremely large and unique moveset potential, with dual swords and dual guns at her disposal, a variety of unique arts, a variety of "gimmick" options if Sakurai wanted due to the games depth of combat, and animations that could practically be copied and pasted from X, it’s RIDICULOUSLY easy to see how she’d fit into Smash and her potential is clear.
- Represents a different part of the Xenoblade franchise which I’m positive will be revisited in the future given the game’s cliffhanger ending. Compare this to Xenoblade 2 which sticks heavily to the original game’s theming instead.
- Not a major point or anything but a point anyway, Sakurai bought a toy mech with a rifle attached to use as a reference for a new project, may not be related to her but the figure greatly resembles the skells used in Xenoblade X and there aren’t many characters who it could be related to (People have brought up ray from custom robo but he’s so irrelevant that I can’t see it happening, others brought up mach rider…idk anything about mach rider so…). It could also mean nothing but it's fun to bring up.
Cons:
- Xenoblade 2 existing creates a potential problem as Sakurai and Monolithsoft may opt for including a character from the more recent game like Rex. However characters being selected before their game actually releases has only happened twice in the past, with Roy who was a last minute clone, and Greninja, but Pokemon could be a special case considering they practically become irrelevant as new games come out, the same could apply here with a new Xenoblade game out I suppose, but Elma isn’t irrelevant in the same way an old pokemon will be since her game is still a standalone product, not a continuous series where characters are added on top of one another by the hundreds.
- Elma isn't technically the "main" character of her game, Cross would be, but Cross is barely a character, barely has a definitive design and has so many customization options that the only way to go about including them would be using the default version, using the 'Drifter' class, using a knife and an assault rifle, FAR less interesting than Elma's potential moveset however.
Want: 100%
Elma is my most wanted character currently, I bought Xenoblade Chronicles X on a whim despite not really being a fan of RPG's or open world games all that much and not knowing anything about the franchise outside of Shulk in smash. I instantly fell in love with the game and played it practically non-stop when I first got it (until I got stuck on the last boss and left it for months, I really sucked and had no idea what I was doing lol). As such I fell in love with Elma, her amazing design and seeing her brought up in smash speculation around the time of X's release was probably a major factor in me wanting to play X. Elma may not be the most developed character around (like literally all the characters in X lol) but I still really enjoyed her as a character regardless (the powerful, badass female character is appealing I guess) and she would fit into smash almost too well, offering a unique moveset in the process, and there are a lot of different playstyles she could encompass and be built around due to the depth of her home games combat.
