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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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Adrianette Bromide

Smash Lord
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In any case it would be Nintendo not being interested in adding an ArcSys character rather than ArcSys not wanting to put their characters in Smash. I seriously doubt they would refuse, and I don't think they would be very demanding in negotiations. So maybe they wouldn't be as cheap as SNK, but definitely not expensive.
Yeah no way ArcSys would refuse. Fighting games are niche as it is and the one on Switch has rollback netcode even (albeit being an older version). Plus Strive comes out soon, they've honestly got a lot to gain from a Smash inclusion. Never forget when I say that Smash is a marketing demon.
 
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Yeah no way ArcSys would refuse. Fighting games are niche as it is and the one on Switch has rollback netcode even (albeit being an older version). Plus Strive comes out soon, they've honestly got a lot to gain from a Smash inclusion. Never forget when I say that Smash is a marketing demon.
Did they actually add rollback to the Switch version of Accent Core? I thought they were only applying it to the Steam version.
 

Adrianette Bromide

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Did they actually add rollback to the Switch version of Accent Core? I thought they were only applying it to the Steam version.
Oh really? Mega butts :( I mean not like you'd really be doing yourself a favour buying it on Switch where there's a smaller install base but my point about how ArcSys could gain a lot from it still stands.
 

SNEKeater

Smash Master
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Yeah no way ArcSys would refuse. Fighting games are niche as it is and the one on Switch has rollback netcode even (albeit being an older version). Plus Strive comes out soon, they've honestly got a lot to gain from a Smash inclusion. Never forget when I say that Smash is a marketing demon.
To clarify, Guilty Gear XX Accent Core Plus R (yeah, that's the official name, we Kingdom Hearts now), which is the one available on Switch, doesn't have rollback netcode. The Steam version of the game is the one with rollback netcode.

But basically yeah, I don't see why Arc Sys or almost any company for that matter would refuse add their characters to Smash. Obviously that doesn't mean they will put their IPs for free, and depending on the company or the IP it will be more expensive or more cheap. But that and not wanting their characters in Smash is a completely different thing.

And now that you mention Strive, the new game isn't coming to Switch and I guess the game would be hard to port to the console, but I don't get why ArcSys hasn't ported Guilty Gear Xrd yet, the previous entry. The Switch could handle that one for sure... I think. lol
 

SharkLord

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Really? We must have been in different places because I saw tons more Elma support after Rex was shot down.
Spirits deconfirming was always a touchy subject about whether it meant anything, we know now it didn’t but then it felt like a 50/50 in terms of people’s feelings.
And while it is true Nintendo is the one picking characters. Sakurai said he gets a list from Nintendo that he personally picks from, so if Elma was on that list it’s entirely possible he picked her.
Granted I haven't been deep in speculation until around Min Min so who am I to say :drshrug: . Though, a source on that resurgence would be nice. Can't really buy those claims unless there's something to back it up.

Even if you didn't think Spirits were a death sentence, with each passing third-party I'd imagine speculation would shift more and more towards them. Seeing as X was still stuck on the Wii U, I'd imagine someone like Elma wouldn't be showing up on many predictions.

That doesn't seem to be how it goes, not according to a later interview.
Masahiro Sakurai Reminds Us That He Doesn’t Choose the Fighters for Super Smash Bros. - Siliconera
1611719187207.png

There was a problem fetching the tweet
Same interview, different source
1611719304968.png


Min Min and Steve support this, with Nintendo requesting them (Or an ARMS rep in general, for the former). Even then, I haven't seen anything that implies he's interested in XCX. Why would Rex being out of the way make him move on to Elma? That'd just make her, what, a poor man's substitute? I don't really see it.
 
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And now that you mention Strive, the new game isn't coming to Switch and I guess the game would be hard to port to the console, but I don't get why ArcSys hasn't ported Guilty Gear Xrd yet, the previous entry. The Switch could handle that one for sure... I think. lol
I'm pretty sure it could run Xrd, too, but it would take work, and my guess is that they just aren't interested in doing the work to make it happen. It took a jillion people begging for Fighterz for them to buckle down and make that port happen. And that's probably their best selling game.
 

Adrianette Bromide

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I want to just let my thoughts out that I don't think a character necessarily has to "shill" something on Switch. Hero definitely had some blatant heavy handed cross-promotion with Dragon Quest 11 and Byleth and Min Min are obviously Nintendo characters, a lot of the Smash clout probably extends to other systems as well. I highly doubt Joker was added to solely promote some lower end 3DS spin-off and for all the P5 fan stereotypes out there, it definitely worked to bring in more Persona fans. Terry has legacy games on the Switch but he still gets modern entries, Minecraft literally is always relevant and was just having one of its largest updates ever announced and FF7R was also just a thing. Banjo is the only outlier.

This is pretty obvious of course but I think the DLC characters show a pattern that the character choice is usually big enough to make some good sales for Nintendo and let Smash fans know the characters and their games exist. I wouldn't have been batting an eye at KoF 15 (and gotten upset at its terrible first gameplay trailer lol) if Terry didn't introduce me to KoF. I'm probably not going to buy it but I bet you there are people who've actually maybe gotten intrigued enough to hop into the traditional FGC with this new game in the horizon.

This is basically my giant essay to justify Sol Badguy and his rocking array of music lol but yeah, I think even though Strive isn't on Switch, getting people in the know about the greater FGC with Guilty Gear might be part of the deal that ArcSys hypothetically might want from adding Guilty Gear x Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.

Smash is a marketing demon, never underestimate its ability to breathe some life into whatever it cross-promotes with.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Alright, my newest moveset thingy is done! Now with some slightly odd choices done to avoid adding spoilers to a 13 year old game! This one's for Chell.

Chell is one of the poor test subjects at Aperture Laboratories. She was given a Portal Gun, and asked to go through a series of dangerous puzzle rooms called test chambers. She spends Portal making her way through these chambers, and the inner workings of the facility, trying to make her escape, culminating in a fight between her and her captor, GLaDOS, ending in GLaDOS exploding.

While this did bring the two of them to the surface, Chell was unable to escape due to recently having been next to an explosion, and facility robots dragging her back inside to put her in stasis. Another personality core, Wheatley eventually finds her there, and another escape attempt is made, kicking off the story of Portal 2.

In Super Smash Bros., Chell wields an upgraded version of the Portal Gun, which can throw objects, create portals on any type of surface, and even emit electricity for attacks. She’ll put these portals and other testing objects to use, making it much harder for opponents to attack her.

Chell’s Neutral Special is the Portal Gun. By holding the Special Attack button down, she will aim her shot. Releasing the button will cause her to fire the shot creating a portal where it lands. The first portal does nothing until the second portal is created, which creates a hole in the surfaces they appear on. They’re big enough for even the tallest characters to walk through them (I had originally advocated for smaller portals, but now I realize that they kinda have to be large enough for characters like Ridley and Sephiroth to fit through them), and they allow you to fall in one hole, and come out the other.

The portals are color coded based on which player slot Chell is on. Player 1 has blue and orange portals, Player 2 has cyan and dark indigo portals, Player 3 has dark yellow and light green portals, Player 4 has green and lavender portals, Player 5 has yellow and brick red portals, Player 6 has white and dark blue portals, Player 7 has pink and red portals, and Player 8 has purple and black portals. Since players need to know where all portals lead rather than just their own, computer opponents will also adhere to these rules instead of getting grey ones.

The shots fired by the Portal Gun can hit opponents, but it doesn’t do any damage or create a portal there. Portals also can’t be created on grated surfaces (the shot goes through them), non-flat surfaces, moving surfaces, surfaces smaller than the portals, or too close to other portals when both are going onto the floor. Exceptions to these rules are where the main platform has these characteristics, so you can place portals on Lylat Cruise even though the entire stage is constantly moving, Mario Galaxy even though the entire stage is round, and so on. If a portal is placed on something that is later destroyed or begins to move, the portal will vanish. Portals can be placed on the bottom of semi-solid platforms (and the glow from them will extend so as to remain visible), and doing so does not cause players that drop through them to go through them.

Nearly everything that moves is able to go through portals. This includes players, projectiles, items, and certain stage elements (though these are almost exclusive to the Test Chamber S and Stage Builder stages). Any momentum is preserved through the portals, but the trajectory is changed depending on which way the exit portal is facing (which is always the opposite direction of the terrain the portal is on). For example, if Fox shoots a laser into a portal on the wall that has an exit portal on the floor, it will come out of the exit portal going straight up, and the same will happen if Fox runs in.

As stated before, portals act as holes that allow you to go in one side and out the other, which means that you can stand in two places at once. For example, if Bowser was to stand in between portals, he can clearly be seen both where he’s entering and where he’s exiting the portal, and he can be hit in both locations as well.

Depending on how entry and exit portals are situated, a characters and items may come out upside down or sideways. If this happens to a character (this includes Assist Trophies), they will quickly flip right side up, and any attacks they were doing will launch in the direction relative to their orientation as they do so. If a character is doing a downward charging move, the move will immediately end as they flip. This includes stall and fall Down Aerials, Down Specials like Yoshi Bomber, Up Specials like Climhazard (when going down), and other special moves like Backslash. Certain other Special Moves will end as well if the orientation change would mess them up.

As stated before, momentum is preserved upon going through a portal, which means that the faster you go into a portal, the faster you will come out of one. This is important to note, because you do not go faster when you come out of a portal, you can go faster than normal in a given direction depending on how you enter it. For example, if Fox fast falls into a portal on the ground, he will come out the portal on the wall at a rate faster than his normal air speed.

One last thing to note is that Chell will fire the portals in a pattern of the first one, then the second one, and then back to the first. If the player wishes to skip one in this pattern, then they can hold the shield button as they aim the Portal Gun.
After Portal Gun, Chell’s most important Special Move is her Down Special: Weighted Cube. She will press a Pedestal Button, and a Cube will pop out of a dispenser on the ground. This can be a Weighted Storage Cube, Weighted Companion Cube, Discouragement Redirection Cube, or a Frankenturret. None of these cubes have any mechanical differences, and Chell can only have one of them on-screen at a time (different cube types all count as one cube).

These cubes act like unbreakable Crates. They can be picked up by players, but they are heavy, and will weigh down anyone that isn’t Chell. Since Chell doesn’t use any sort of strength to pick up items (the Portal Gun grabs it for her), heavy items can be picked up without impeding her movement. She can also throw the cube forward or straight up or down, causing it to damage opponents based on its trajectory, and how fast it’s going. When dropped, it will build up speed as it falls (there is a cap on how fast it can go, but it is quite fast). You can throw the cube at Portals in order to try and mix up your opponents, or cover more options. One classic thing to do is to place a portal on the floor and the ceiling, and have the cube fall endlessly between them. Do note though, that Chell can get hit by her own cubes, even if she’s the one that threw them.

When summoning the cube, the cube is launched in the air slightly, dealing damage to those it hits. This move cannot be used in the air, or too close to a ledge.

Chell has one more item in her Side Special: Sentry Turret. Chell summons a Sentry Turret in a similar manner to how she summons a Weighted Cube, and with the same restrictions, but the Turret pops up more slowly, and doesn’t do damage upon appearing. A Sentry Turret will shoot at all players, including the one that summoned it, that appear in its line of sight which is a cone in front of it that goes out a small ways. The bullets deal a little bit of damage, and can lock opponents in hitstun until they escape similar to Bowser’s Fire Breath. Remember that the turrets must have line of sight, so any terrain between the turret and the fighters will block the turret’s vision.

Turrets are immune to damage from physical attacks, but they can be knocked over if the attack does enough damage. A turret does not do enough damage to knock over another turret, but reflecting a turret’s shots will be enough. Attacks with more special effects like electric, flame, darkness, and magic effects can damage and destroy turrets outright.

If a turret is knocked over, it will freak out, and fire bullets sporadically for a short period before deactivating, and disappearing. Turrets can be picked up like normal items (though you might want to approach one from behind). If you drop them, they will land on their feet unless the terrain is sloped, but if thrown, they will freak out as they tilt in the air and start shooting before they land. They will not deactivate until they have been freaking out on the ground for a bit (about a second). Just like with the cubes, Chell can only have one turret out at a time.

Chell’s last Special Move is her Up Special: Aerial Faith Plate. An Aerial Faith Plate is built underneath her, and promptly flicks her into the air up, and forwards. Players can influence where they end up by pressing left or right on the control stick. This attack has no hitbox, but when it’s used on the ground, the move can be canceled by jumping or shielding, and Aerial Faith Plate will stick around for a second regardless, allowing you to instead launch a Weighted Cube or Turret.
Chell isn’t much of a fighter, so her normal attacks are fairly underwhelming, with most of them being mostly there to set up her assault with turrets, portals, and cubes. Her Neutral Attack is a thrust of the Portal Gun, which emits a burst of electricity. It acts as a decent poke with its slight disjoint, but it is fairly slow for a Neutral Attack. Her Forward Tilt is also fairly slow, and this time it doesn’t have any disjoint, as it is just a forward kick. It does cover more ground than the Neutral Attack though.

Her Up Tilt is an uppercut. It is one of her quicker attacks, but the hitbox is quite small, so it isn’t all that great an attack. Her Down Tilt is much better; a quick kick that is her best poke, and can combo into Weighted Cube at low percents. Chell’s Dash Attack is a simple shoulder tackle. It’s not a bad attack, but there isn’t much to write home about it either.

Chell’s Forward Smash has her fire a High Energy Pellet from the Portal Gun. This is a projectile attack that fizzles out quite quickly. While it can help rack up damage, it doesn’t normally K.O. for quite a while, and the attack itself is pretty slow. It’s damage and K.O. power increase drastically if you hit the sweetspot, that being the moment the projectile fizzles out on its own.

Chell’s Down Smash is a bit stronger than the Forward Smash on average, but weaker than the sweet spot of the move, but a bit faster. It’s a kick in front, and then a kick behind; similar to Snake’s Down Smash.

Chell’s best K.O. move on the ground is her Up Smash, where she holds the Portal Gun up as it crackles with electricity. This has some decent cooldown though, so she can be rendered pretty vulnerable afterward.
Chell’s Neutral Aerial consists of two kicks, much like with Captain Falcon, though the kicks are made a bit more awkwardly than with other attacks of this ilk. This is Chell’s best combo tool, comboing into her Forward Aerial, her tilts if you don’t hit the second hit, and possibly itself at lower percents. There is a slight bit of end lag to it though, so she can’t spam it. Her Forward Aerial is a swipe with the Portal Gun as it emits electricity. There isn’t much to it, but it does decent enough damage.

Chell’s Up Aerial is also kind of eh. She thrusts the Portal Gun above her head and it bursts with electricity. It doesn’t really lead to any juggling or anything. Her Down Aerial is much more useful. It’s a double foot stomp that spikes at the start, and sends her down. It’s not the greatest for landing, but she can use it over a portal to launch herself out of the exit portal much faster than she could when fast falling or running through.

Chell’s Back Aerial is her best K.O. option outside of launching boxes at high speeds. It is similar to the Inkling’s Back Aerial, where she swings the Portal Gun behind her as it releases a burst of electricity. It is a bit slower than Inkling’s Back Aerial, so she can’t spam this move either.
Because she already does a lot with the Portal Gun, Chell grabs opponents with her left arm to keep the animations from overlaping. It’s pretty standard as grabs go. Her throws all use the Portal Gun to throw the opponent in the given direction. Most of them are just for stage control, but her Down Throw does combo into things at low percents, and can drop people off ledges (including through portals), though it’s about the weakest Meteor Smash in the game.
Chell, and nearby opponents are launched by a large panel. If this panel doesn’t hit any other opponents, Chell is simply launched forward and upward like with the Aerial Faith Plate, but if it does hit, then it starts a cinematic.

In the cinematic, Chell and the others land on a platform surrounded by crushers. In front of them, GLaDOS appears on the monitor, and states that this is the part where she K.O.’s you. Chell uses the Portal Gun to escape as the Crushers all slam into the platform. Any players with 100% or higher are immediately K.O.’ed. After the Cinematic, Chell appears out of a portal where she started the cinematic ignoring how portals can’t appear in the air for this one instance.

*If they allow the word “kill” to be used in this context, then this is what will be used instead.
Chell is similar to Hero in that her normal attacks are somewhat unremarkable for the most part, and her focus is on the Special Moves. She can control a large amount of the stage with her Portals and her Sentry Turrets, and make really cool item plays with the aforementioned objects and her Weighted Cubes. Her biggest weakness is her disadvantage, as while she can get out of being juggled well enough, her Up Special has no hitbox on it, and can be challenged quite easily. Not really a balance point, but she’s also one of those characters who relies on galaxy brain plays like PAC-Man.

This is a large stage like Temple, allowing Chell to play with portals a lot more freely than on most stages. On top of this, the layout is semi random, adding variety to each time you play on it. Because of the random layouts, I won’t be explaining them in excruciating detail, but I will explain the objects that can appear on them:

  • Dark Grey Terrain: Portals cannot be placed on this, but it otherwise doesn’t have any unique properties.
  • Goo: It can appear at the bottom of the stage. It acts like water, but if you get in, you will continually take a non-trivial amount of damage, and will drown much faster.
  • Heavy Duty Super-Colliding Super Button: When a character stands on it or a heavy object is placed on it, they will activate certain mechanisms.
  • High Energy Pellet: This is emitted by a High Energy Pellet Launcher that is mounted on a wall or ceiling. If the projectile hits a High Energy Pellet catcher, it will briefly activate certain mechanisms.
  • Unstationary Scaffold: Literally just a moving platform that moves side to side. Can operate from the get go, or can require activation.
  • Victory Lift: A lift that goes up when activated, and down when deactivated.
  • Vital Apparatus Vent: A tube that can dispense Weighted Cubes or Gels when activated. Gels will only come from these. Sometimes they’re always active.
  • Sentry Turret: They work the same as Chell’s Sentry Turret item, but once they’re gone, they’re gone.
  • Aerial Faith Plate: Launches anyone that stands on them.
  • Excursion Funnel: An energy cyclone that can go vertically or horizontally. Anyone who jumps into it will be carried away from its emitter, and it can even catch players that are launched into it. If this object is activated, it will instead suck players in.
  • Hard Light Bridge: A semi-solid platform that will extend through portals.
  • Conversion Gel: A white liquid. Anything it covers will allow portals to be made on their surface.
  • Propulsion Gel: An orange liquid. Gradually increases the speed characters walking or running on it.
  • Repulsion Gel: A blue liquid. Increases the jump height on characters that jump on it, and characters and objects will bounce on it upon landing unless they hold down.
The stage guest stars GLaDOS, Wheatley, or Cave Johnson randomly. If Wheatley is chosen, then he will show up in the room, and commentate on the match. If GLaDOS is chosen, she will make comment on the match, as well as on the characters and items in it. Cave Johnson’s messages are pre-recorded, so they won’t quite line up with what’s going on. Cave Johnson is much rarer than the other two since he has fewer lines. Alternatively, they could pull him from the Perpetual Testing Initiative, which is an alternate reality where he didn’t die, and could make direct comments about the action. Either could be entertaining.

  • Chell (Portal 2): She wears a cropped tank top with Aperture Laboratories’s logo on it with a blue tank top underneath. Well…it’s either a tank top or a leotard, I’m not quite sure if the grey part of her outfit is a pair of short shorts or part of a leotard. She also wears an orange jumpsuit as pants; the top part of it is tied at her waist. She also has brown hair, wears a white wristband, and a pair of white Long Fall Boots.
  • Chell (Portal): She wears the orange jumpsuit in full, and is barefoot, wearing the Advanced Knee Replacements instead of the Long Fall Boots.
  • Grey: Chell’s jumpsuit becomes a slate color, and her tank top is now grey as well. Her blue tank top becomes red. This is based off of the Defective Turrets.
  • White: Chell’s jumpsuit becomes white. This is based off the fact that pretty much all of the characters in this series are primarily white.
  • Beige: Chell’s jumpsuit is now red, the blue undershirt is now burgundy, and her hair is now blonde. This is based off of Cave Johnson’s color pallet as seen in the paintings of him.
  • Red: Chell’s jumpsuit is now red. This isn’t really based off of anything. If you want to stretch things you could say it’s based off of the red team in Team Fortress 2 but, eeeeh.
  • Green: Chell’s jumpsuit is now green with a camo pattern, and her undershirt is green too. This isn’t based off of anything.
  • Blue: Chell’s jumpsuit is now blue. This isn’t really based off of anything. If you want to stretch things you could say it’s based off of the blue team in Team Fortress 2 but, eeeeh.
  • Mii Gunner
  • Bowser Jr.
  • Snake
  • Mewtwo
  • Mega Man
  • R.O.B.
  • Bonus
  • Galleom
This has the theme of rival technologies to Aperture Laboratories, and all of the battles except Galleom take place on Test Chamber S.
A lot of the OST blends in with the atmosphere, so I wasn’t expecting to find this many usable tracks. I do think Chell should come with some other Valve tracks, but I wouldn’t really know what to look for there so I’ll just stick with Portal.

  • Still Alive(Remix)
    • There’s no way this wouldn’t be here. It is a bit soft for a battle theme though so they’ll probably remix it.
  • Want You Gone
    • The second GLaDOS song who’s lyrics are even more confusing out of context. I don’t think this one would need a remix, though they might give it one while they’re at it if one of the composers had the inspiration to do so.
  • Cara Mia Addio(Remix)
    • Also known as The Turret Opera, this song is another kind of unfitting one, but I think they could come up with something kind of beautiful with it.
  • 4000 Degrees Kelvin/You’re Not a Good Person(Remix)
    • I could see a remix like this being added. These two songs play in particularly dangerous parts of the game: The part where “you get cake”, and the second Sentry Turret ambush.
  • You Can’t Escape, You Know(Remix)
    • Iirc this is the boss fight theme for GLaDOS. It’s mostly just rhythm, but I think it could work.
  • The Courtesy Call(Remix)
    • This is the theme for when you meet Wheatley, and he moves you through the facility. It could either be a remix, or they might could just cut out the first minute of the track.
  • I Saw a Deer Today
    • One of the faster tempoed songs from Portal 2.
  • You Will Be Perfect
    • A rare song that’s actually perfect for the game as is.
  • Robots FTW
    • This one’s kind of a bop. May or may not get a remix.
I’m not including it because it’s just ambiance, but I wanted to point out that there is a track called Procedural Jiggle Bone…I’m sorry, what?
  • Space Core (Novice)
    • Spirit Battle: You battle a yellow Kirby on Mario Galaxy that just jumps around aimlessly. You Will Be Perfect is the music for this battle.
    • Effect: Grants Floaty Jumps.
  • Wheatley (Novice)
    • Spirit Battle: You battle a blue Kirby in Test Chamber S. The Kirby is distracted by the many Bob-ombs that appear, but only after they start to walk. The courtesy call is the music for this battle.
    • Effect: Primary Spirit. Is balance type, and has 1 slot.
  • Defective Turret (Novice)
    • Spirit Battle: You battle a 3 R.O.B.s on Frigate Orpheon that have no charge on their Neutral Special, but spam it anyway. I Saw a Deer Today is the music for this battle.
    • Effect: Grants Ammoless, which causes all attacks that would require ammo (blasters, guns, bows, etc.) to not work.
  • Weighted Companion Cube (Advanced)
    • Spirit Battle: You battle a pink R.O.B. that does literally nothing on Norfair in a stamina match. The lava is permanently at the bottom of the stage. Cara Mia Addio is the music for this battle.
    • Effect: Grants Item Gravitation.
  • Atlas & P-Body (Advanced)
    • Spirit Battle: You battle Chell, and a blue Chell on Test Chamber S with no special effects. Team attack is on. Robots FTW is the song that plays for this battle.
    • Effect: Primary Spirit. Is Shield type, and has 2 slots.
  • Sentry Turret (Advanced)
    • Spirit Battle: You battle 3 R.O.B.s on Test Chamber S have a full charge on their Neutral Special, and spam it. 4000 Degrees Kelvin/You’re Not a Good Person is the music for this battle.
    • Effect: Primary Spirit. Is Attack Type, and has 2 slots.
  • Cave Johnson (Ace)
    • Spirit Battle: You battle Snake on Shadow Moses Island as the two of you are pestered by yellow Kirbys. Snake will be more interested in attacking the Kirbys than you, and you must defeat Snake to win. Want You Gone is the music for this battle.
    • Effect: Grants Shooting Attack Up.
  • GLaDOS (Legend)
    • You battle an invincible R.O.B. accompanied by purple, orange, blue, and red Kirbys that avoid conflict. You must beat the Kirbys to win. Still Alive is the music for this battle.
    • Effect: Grants Persistant Ramblin’ Evil Mushroom, which causes you to start with a Ramblin’ Evil Mushroom, and another to spawn next to you whenever you that one goes away for whatever reason after a cooldown time.
 

Þe 1 → Way

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Wouldn’t You Like To Know?
Granted I haven't been deep in speculation until around Min Min so who am I to say :drshrug: . Though, a source on that resurgence would be nice. Can't really buy those claims unless there's something to back it up.

Even if you didn't think Spirits were a death sentence, with each passing third-party I'd imagine speculation would shift more and more towards them. Seeing as X was still stuck on the Wii U, I'd imagine someone like Elma wouldn't be showing up on many predictions.

That doesn't seem to be how it goes, not according to a later interview.
Masahiro Sakurai Reminds Us That He Doesn’t Choose the Fighters for Super Smash Bros. - Siliconera
View attachment 300705
There was a problem fetching the tweet
Same interview, different source
View attachment 300706

Min Min and Steve support this, with Nintendo requesting them (Or an ARMS rep in general, for the former). Even then, I haven't seen anything that implies he's interested in XCX. Why would Rex being out of the way make him move on to Elma? That'd just make her, what, a poor man's substitute? I don't really see it.
Huh, thats strange. Articles like this tell the opposite. Nintendo Makes a List, Sakurai Picks.
I always saw Min Min and Steve as exceptions, like something Nintendo really wants and keeps asking Sakurai for till he caves.

I don’t really have any sources for Elma though. I’m not particularly interested in her so I wasn’t compiling much; her resurgence is only something I remember happening so I could be wrong and its just in my head.

I don’t think he’d see it as a poor mans substitute; rather just him realizing how much people want her once she becomes more likely. And thus reconsidering. That would also explain her appearance in Pass 2, as Pass 1 would’ve already been decided by the time of this hypothetical realization.
 

SharkLord

Smash Hero
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Huh, thats strange. Articles like this tell the opposite. Nintendo Makes a List, Sakurai Picks.
I always saw Min Min and Steve as exceptions, like something Nintendo really wants and keeps asking Sakurai for till he caves.

I don’t really have any sources for Elma though. I’m not particularly interested in her so I wasn’t compiling much; her resurgence is only something I remember happening so I could be wrong and its just in my head.

I don’t think he’d see it as a poor mans substitute; rather just him realizing how much people want her once she becomes more likely. And thus reconsidering. That would also explain her appearance in Pass 2, as Pass 1 would’ve already been decided by the time of this hypothetical realization.
I'm going off the mindset of "Most recent takes priority." He stated Nintendo was choosing the characters after Byleth, and the circumstances surrounding Min Min and Steve supported it. Until further notice, I think the process is mostly helmed by Nintendo.

Every character swells when they seem more likely and dip when things start looking grim. Case in point, Geno. Laid low during SSB4, had a surge of support after his Mii proved they were aware of him, persisted throughout SSBU, and went silent after his Mii came back. Even then, Rex still has a lot of popularity himself. Seeing as his teammate Nia was also in the base game, and the fact that his Mii is a free bonus to go with FP1 that was available from the games launch, I'd say he's up for grabs again. Unless there's a lot of credible polls or whatnot that we can use to gauge their popularity to the best of our abilities, Elma's popularity doesn't seem that much notable than most other candidates.
 

ForsakenM

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I think you may be oversimplifying the reasons why people think a costume makes a character unlikely.

Having a character as both a fighter and a costume as paid DLC doesn't make much business sense. They are two products that are going to cannibalize each other (mostly the fighter would cannibalize the costume's profits) and both will have licensing costs. Basically, Nintendo would be cutting its profits by making a character both things instead of just making a new mii costume.

If we were talking about an unpaid costume, I'd agree with you. It wouldn't affect anything. But the costume is paid, so it's a separate product.

I'm not saying to give up hope, just that there's a reason behind the sentiment besides just seeing patterns.
This really isn't a situation of cannibalizing your own sales, and the whole reason is due to timing. In fact, cannibalizing sales goes against the argument for Geno's costume coming with or after the character himself, as people would buy the character instead. Releasing the costume first allows them to maximize sales of recycled content from those who think this is all they will get as well as those who always buy all their content. By letting that rest for an amount of time (minimum a few months if Geno were hypothetically CP9) or much later (like if a FP3 was announced) gives plenty of time to get the max sales they likely would anyway before dropping the character later to make even more money.

Nintendo's fanbase is rather loyal and tends to kinda just hand them money, so a $.75 costume reaching close to it's max potential in sales in a short amount of time is very likely, with bundles later on being the best way to capitalize on those you missed the first time around...you know, like Smash 4. Also, you guys keep forgetting that this is basically free money: it's completely recycled assets with the most minor of changes made, not some brand new costume or even worse a Deluxe one. Acting as if recycling assets for a quick buck (not even a whole buck) screws a character's chances is absolutely ridiculous.

just because a dumb fanrule was broken doesn't mean a fanrule that actually makes sense will be broken.

also they aren't "generalizations with little to no actual research"
do you know what saying geno won't get in because of a paid mii costume is? common sense!


look sometimes you just have to move on instead of saying "oh there are two microsoft reps so that means geno still has a shot!"
What about saying mii costumes kills a character is common sense? None of it, because ACTUAL research would suggest that something that minor wouldn't get in the way of prior or future negotiation. Proof that all but three costumes have been returned shows they planned on all of them coming back since far back in development. Why would you let something so trivial made earlier in development prevent negotiations for the future, especially low effort cash grabs? We already have evidence that neither PNGs nor ATs are a big concern when it comes to negotiations, so why is a mii costume so different? It isn't.

This is simply more proof that the Smash fandom has little experience with games outside of Smash or how Nintendo does things, as they would know things like this happen in other games all the time. I can't tell you how many times a character in a fighting game has a color swap or a costume that references another character that isn't even in the game, only to have that character be DLC later.
 

Otoad64

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What about saying mii costumes kills a character is common sense? None of it, because ACTUAL research would suggest that something that minor wouldn't get in the way of prior or future negotiation. Proof that all but three costumes have been returned shows they planned on all of them coming back since far back in development. Why would you let something so trivial made earlier in development prevent negotiations for the future, especially low effort cash grabs? We already have evidence that neither PNGs nor ATs are a big concern when it comes to negotiations, so why is a mii costume so different? It isn't.
ACTUAL reseach would tell you that a mii costume doesn't get in the way of future negotiations, because the characters are all decided BEFORE the mii costumes. They don't add content in the order it was revealed, they chose all the characters, then chose all the mii costumes.
 

Þe 1 → Way

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I'm going off the mindset of "Most recent takes priority." He stated Nintendo was choosing the characters after Byleth, and the circumstances surrounding Min Min and Steve supported it. Until further notice, I think the process is mostly helmed by Nintendo.

Every character swells when they seem more likely and dip when things start looking grim. Case in point, Geno. Laid low during SSB4, had a surge of support after his Mii proved they were aware of him, persisted throughout SSBU, and went silent after his Mii came back. Even then, Rex still has a lot of popularity himself. Seeing as his teammate Nia was also in the base game, and the fact that his Mii is a free bonus to go with FP1 that was available from the games launch, I'd say he's up for grabs again. Unless there's a lot of credible polls or whatnot that we can use to gauge their popularity to the best of our abilities, Elma's popularity doesn't seem that much notable than most other candidates.
Didn't he say the same at around the release date of Ultimate? I'm pretty sure hes always said that Nintendo picks the DLC. It just seems he gets final say of who gets in. I agree that Nintendo makes the big decisions.

Doesn't each character swelling when becoming more likely help corroborate my point that she had a resurgence?

I feel like the closest thing I can give you for Elma is her support thread. That thing seems to be swelling like crazy as of late. I wish I could give you more. Elma is one of the few characters thats existed since the base game and made it this far. Only other one I have off the top of my head being BWD.

At the end of the day, I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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What about saying mii costumes kills a character is common sense? None of it, because ACTUAL research would suggest that something that minor wouldn't get in the way of prior or future negotiation. Proof that all but three costumes have been returned shows they planned on all of them coming back since far back in development. Why would you let something so trivial made earlier in development prevent negotiations for the future, especially low effort cash grabs? We already have evidence that neither PNGs nor ATs are a big concern when it comes to negotiations, so why is a mii costume so different? It isn't.
The argument is the other way around though: Characters are chosen Mii Costumes instead of fighters rather than existing Mii Costumes preventing characters from becoming fighters. Is it plausible that a Pass 1 costume gets a character? Yes. A Pass 2 costume? Not so much. Geno's only saving grace here is that his costume isn't new (EDIT: Like, it's already made so why not sell it again?), and there is some sense to selling it before the character since people probably aren't going to buy both once both are out.

Still though, all signs point to "no" on that front.

I can't tell you how many times a character in a fighting game has a color swap or a costume that references another character that isn't even in the game, only to have that character be DLC later.
Have any of these instances been a paid DLC costume followed up by a paid DLC fighter shortly thereafter? The only thing I can think of that's in any way similar are the games where every character gets a little chibi avatar for the lobby, but even then those get added simultaneously, and I don't believe you pay for the avatars.
 
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Aboyd

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I guess I missed the Prediction talk, but I'll still post my Predictions anyway

Scorpion
Elma
Shadow the Hedgehog

Probably in that order as well. I also predict the Spirit event today won't be anything special unfortunately, but still be interesting to see what it is
What made you change your mind about the order (I believe previously you said Elma would be last)
 

ForsakenM

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ACTUAL reseach would tell you that a mii costume doesn't get in the way of future negotiations, because the characters are all decided BEFORE the mii costumes. They don't add content in the order it was revealed, they chose all the characters, then chose all the mii costumes.
And Geno's costume was likely negotiated for Ultimate before it even released in Smash 4, so what's the actual argument here?

Have any of these instances been a paid DLC costume followed up by a paid DLC fighter shortly thereafter? The only thing I can think of that's in any way similar are the games where every character gets a little chibi avatar for the lobby, but even then those get added simultaneously, and I don't believe you pay for the avatars.
There have been a few but I don't know them offhand. I will have to do some digging and get back to you with that information.

Also, it's your opinion that a character is chosen as a costume because they can't be a fighter, and I actually agree with that. I think that heavily applies to Cuphead, Sans, Vault Boy and Bomberman. I also believe it applies to a lesser extend to Travis, my suggestion to Travis fans being to not give up and root for a third pass. However, Geno isn't a brand-new costume: it's completely recycled content, as you mentioned yourself as well as what I have said countless times.

It's funny that you say the 'signs point to no' when actually, the signs point in favor of him still happening. You even just listed one yourself, btu then say the signs are against him. I think you guys are up for another rule break, and I expect the next fan rule will be 'Well, this ONLY applies to returning costumes, not new ones!' The cycle will surely continue.
 

SharkLord

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Didn't he say the same at around the release date of Ultimate? I'm pretty sure hes always said that Nintendo picks the DLC. It just seems he gets final say of who gets in. I agree that Nintendo makes the big decisions.

Doesn't each character swelling when becoming more likely help corroborate my point that she had a resurgence?

I feel like the closest thing I can give you for Elma is her support thread. That thing seems to be swelling like crazy as of late. I wish I could give you more. Elma is one of the few characters thats existed since the base game and made it this far. Only other one I have off the top of my head being BWD.

At the end of the day, I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree.
He did say that after Joker... But he also seems to have gone back on that from Byleth onwards. From what we can gather, he doesn't have much input on the matter unless Nintendo just wants a general rep from a game. Either way, "Sakurai Picks" in general tend to be inconclusive what-ifs, and we can't really draw any conclusions from them.

It does, but it means her resurgence isn't anything special.

On a side note, I checked by the SourceGaming polls to see how the two stacked up. It'd obviously not conclusive, but it's wide-reaching and I think it's one of the best we've got. If anyone else has some accurate polls to share, feel free to.

Source Gaming’s Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Fighter Pass Poll Results – Source Gaming
This was for FP1, before E3. Rex was ninth place, with 363 votes, while Elma was down in 32nd, with a flat 100.
Mega Smash Poll Ultimate: The characters YOU want for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Fighter Pass 2! – Source Gaming
This one's for FP2, held before the ARMS guessing game. Rex was in 18th place with 307 votes, and Elma was 44th, with 110 votes.

Probably not exact, but that seems to be around where they are. Going off of that, Rex is by far the more popular Xenoblade character, even with the apparent resurgence. It's also possible that said resurgence peaked shortly after Rex's deconfirmation, then quickly petered out. That's how the Spirit hype felt after Min Min, though SmashBoards obviously isn't representative of the entire fandom.
 

Cutie Gwen

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Sakurai should honestly repeatedly say things to this effect at every Mii costume reveal.
View attachment 300703View attachment 300704
Clearly it's something that's a bit hard to grasp when applied to other characters.
Ok but you see, this one character's my favourite, so it doesn't actually apply to them because I want them and I cannot accept a reality where I don't get exactly what I want, disagreeing with me is a fanrule
 

7NATOR

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What made you change your mind about the order (I believe previously you said Elma would be last)
Pretty much

There was a Amiibo restock leak back then that had Amiibo like Mario series, Zelda Series, and also the Smash Cloud Amiibo. Coincidently, The Mario anniversary, Age of Calimity, and Sephiroth in Smash were things that happened to be announced late last year

Well on that same leak, there were also restock of Splatoon Amiibos, and the Smash Ryu Amiibo. Splatoon has been rumored to be getting some form of New content, and I believe one of the official twitter accounteds tweeted "2020" perhaps for an announcement, but it must have gotten delayed

Which leaves Ryu's Smash amiibo. If the Cloud amiibo was pointing towards Sephiroth, than Ryu might point to something in Smash as well, whether it be Chun-Li, Capcom character, or another Fighting game character

Since I'm predicting Scorpion, I imagine it be tied to him, because I know Mortal Kombat vs Street Fighter will be a selling point that would be used, as Ed has been trying to get this crossover to reality for years now. because it was in the leak back then, I'm thinking he's next in line

So if Scorpion is in March, I also imagine that in the June direct, it's a possibility of 2 Revealed characters this time. Elma and Shadow would fit this. I do know that Shadow definitly has to be somehwere in June because of the anniversary, but I also think he would be last because I imagineif both were revealed at the same time, It would go Elma, then Shadow, instead of the other way around

however if we just get 1 reveal in June, then I imagine it to be just Shadow, but I'm banking on double reveal in June
 

Þe 1 → Way

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And Geno's costume was likely negotiated for Ultimate before it even released in Smash 4, so what's the actual argument here?
You think Nintendo negotiated for a Mii Costume they wouldn't release till half a decade later? I'm sorry, Likely is not the word to use here.
He did say that after Joker... But he also seems to have gone back on that from Byleth onwards. From what we can gather, he doesn't have much input on the matter unless Nintendo just wants a general rep from a game. Either way, "Sakurai Picks" in general tend to be inconclusive what-ifs, and we can't really draw any conclusions from them.

It does, but it means her resurgence isn't anything special.

On a side note, I checked by the SourceGaming polls to see how the two stacked up. It'd obviously not conclusive, but it's wide-reaching and I think it's one of the best we've got. If anyone else has some accurate polls to share, feel free to.

Source Gaming’s Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Fighter Pass Poll Results – Source Gaming
This was for FP1, before E3. Rex was ninth place, with 363 votes, while Elma was down in 32nd, with a flat 100.
Mega Smash Poll Ultimate: The characters YOU want for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Fighter Pass 2! – Source Gaming
This one's for FP2, held before the ARMS guessing game. Rex was in 18th place with 307 votes, and Elma was 44th, with 110 votes.

Probably not exact, but that seems to be around where they are. Going off of that, Rex is by far the more popular Xenoblade character, even with the apparent resurgence. It's also possible that said resurgence peaked shortly after Rex's deconfirmation, then quickly petered out. That's how the Spirit hype felt after Min Min, though SmashBoards obviously isn't representative of the entire fandom.
Oh, cool. Thanks for all the information. I might need to reevaluate my predictions.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Also, it's your opinion that a character is chosen as a costume because they can't be a fighter, and I actually agree with that.
Not can't, just weren't. Might have been what you meant but I feel the distinction is important.

It's funny that you say the 'signs point to no' when actually, the signs point in favor of him still happening. You even just listed one yourself, btu then say the signs are against him.
It's not a sign in his favor though. It's just one that means he's not 100% off the table, just 99%.

Really his chances were always a million to one, I guess in that sense there's no change there.
 

Will

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I've been saying the Rex dream has been dead for ages. :jojo: My statements are sound enough on its own, the only thing we have is time now.
 

Idon

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Speaking of color alts, remember when they cut out Ike's Chrom color and Samus's Dark Samus colors which hinted that those characters were coming later?
1611724434601.png

I perhaps wonder if this level of foresight was extended to Mii costumes and characters in the same DLC pass.

PS: Bring back this color, it was my favorite
 
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Cosmic77

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Regardless of how much support Elma has, she makes very little sense at this point. There's little reason why Nintendo would want Sakurai to revisit a six year-old game that's honestly not all that popular in Japan.

Even in a best-case scenario where a XCX port is announced in the immediate future, I doubt she'll get in. Ports rarely do anything, if the three or so ports we've gotten in the past year weren't already an indication of that.
 

Will

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Speaking of color alts, remember when they cut out Ike's Chrom color and Samus's Dark Samus colors which hinted that those characters were coming later?
View attachment 300716
I perhaps wonder if this level of foresight was extended to Mii costumes and characters in the same DLC pass.

PS: Bring back this color, it was my favorite
We need lots of colors back. Luigi's old Fire Alt from 64/Melee is the most underrated costume imo.

Untitled (3).png
 

7NATOR

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Yeah if Geno's Mii Costume was negotiated for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate alongside Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3Ds/Wii U, then it would have been in base considering Geno is a Spirit in base.

Though since it wasn't that might point to Spirits being that much easier to obtain either financially or rights-wise.
All of the 3rd party costumes were DLC. None of them were in Base game, so it wouldn't matter if Geno's costume was negotiated at the same time or not
 

Captain Shwampy

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Yeah. Both are fan favorites actually, as Sephiroth was a Japanese Fan Favorite after Cloud, it's just that the Japanese Fanbase in it's entirety don't give a crap about Sonic The Hedgehog.
Most of sonic's popularity in japan stems from wanting sonic and shadow to sleep together
SA2 is still the most beloved sonic game in japan.

Already better than the western fanbase
 

Þe 1 → Way

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All of the 3rd party costumes were DLC. None of them were in Base game, so it wouldn't matter if Geno's costume was negotiated at the same time or not
But it took it all the way till halfway into the 2nd fighters pass to appear? I don't buy that for a second.
The odds are infinitesimally small that it would have been held off so damn long. Its so much more likely that it was simply renegotiated for Sephiroth. Maybe even Hero if we push it.
I refuse to believe Nintendo would spend as much time negotiating for a dead characters mii costume as they did on ******* Minecraft.

Sorry if I sound so aggressive, my head is killing me and that logic just doesn't flow with me.
 
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7NATOR

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Most of sonic's popularity in japan stems from wanting sonic and shadow to sleep together
SA2 is still the most beloved sonic game in japan.


Already better than the western fanbase
And this is how Shadow wins again. I'm gonna add this to the list of reasons why Shadow over Eggman, Tails, &v Knuckles. If people want to see Sonic and Shadow Smash in Japan, and that's good

But it took it all the way till halfway into the 2nd fighters pass to appear? I don't buy that for a second.
It seems infinitesimally small that it would have been held off so damn long. Its so much more likely that it was simply renegotiated for Sephiroth. Maybe even Hero if we push it.
I refuse to believe Nintendo would spend as much time negotiating for a dead characters mii costume as they did on ******* Minecraft.

Sorry if I sound so aggressive, my head is killing me and that logic just doesn't flow with me.
Oh don't get it twisted, I don't think Geno's costume was negotiated at the same time for Smash 4 and Ultimate. I'm just saying that even if it was or not, that it wouldn't be in base game because All 3rd party DLC Costumes were DLC
 

Þe 1 → Way

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Oh don't get it twisted, I don't think Geno's costume was negotiated at the same time for Smash 4 and Ultimate. I'm just saying that even if it was or not, that it wouldn't be in base game because All 3rd party DLC Costumes were DLC
Oh, my bad.

To move back to greener pastures. Who does everyone want the next fully unique secondary 3rd party character to be, like Sephiroth was to Cloud?
Though hes an assist, I'd love for Alucard to make his debut as full fighter. I think hes actually got a great shot in Smash 6 if Konami returns.
 
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Mamboo07

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Oh, my bad.

To move back to greener pastures. Who does everyone want the next fully unique secondary 3rd party character to be, like Sephiroth was to Cloud?
Though hes an assist, I'd love for Alucard to make his debut as full fighter. I think hes actually got a great shot in Smash 6 if Konami returns.
Dr. Eggman.
 

Otoad64

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Oh, my bad.

To move back to greener pastures. Who does everyone want the next fully unique secondary 3rd party character to be, like Sephiroth was to Cloud?
Though hes an assist, I'd love for Alucard to make his debut as full fighter. I think hes actually got a great shot in Smash 6 if Konami returns.
Tails, as he's my most wanted 3rd party in general
 

DarthEnderX

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Yeah if Geno's Mii Costume was negotiated for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate alongside Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3Ds/Wii U, then it would have been in base considering Geno is a Spirit in base.
I don't think that's the case. I think they always intended to spread the Smash 4 Miis out as much as possible, and I'm pretty sure they renewed the rights to the Geno and Chocobo costumes at the same time they renewed all of Cloud's content.

But it took it all the way till halfway into the 2nd fighters pass to appear? I don't buy that for a second.
Why not? What makes Geno different from Gil or Heihachi?
 
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ForsakenM

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no, it wasn't
And...you would know that how?

You DO know that early Ultimate development started in late 2015, right? And that Cloud was revealed and released with the Chocobo and Geno costumes in late 2015? This would mean that Sakurai already knew he was working on the next Smash game when negotiations happened for these characters.

Even if you disagree, they next time would be during Ultimate's base development, because we got PNGs of both Geno and Mallow as well as Plant having SMRPG enemy references in their Palutena's Guidance. This means that Geno's costume would have been negotiated to return at this time as well, way before DLC was a thought which was most likely sometime in March of 2018.

Considering how Hero was supposed to be base game (supposedly) and how Geno didn't come with Hero even when it was pushed back to Pass 1, this proves that Geno was negotiated to come with Sephiroth from a very early period, giving more credence to the theory that Sephiroth may have been intended for FP1 originally but got pushed back because Hero got pushed back. This would also be in Geno's favor since it would mean that his costume would have been a whole pass ago and make him completely possible without any of this silly backlash for Pass 2.
 
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7NATOR

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Oh, my bad.

To move back to greener pastures. Who does everyone want the next fully unique secondary 3rd party character to be, like Sephiroth was to Cloud?
Though hes an assist, I'd love for Alucard to make his debut as full fighter. I think hes actually got a great shot in Smash 6 if Konami returns.
Well I would want Shadow, but I think alot of people here already know that.

So beyond that, Here are other characters I would be cool with or want, but honestly aren't likely. The ones in Bold are the ones I would really want of the list, but Honestly as long as Shadow gets in, I'm done having a Most wanted character, especially since he's the Character I want the most

-Vergil, Nero, Nelo Angelo (If not included with Vergil) (if Dante was ever added),
-Akuma (Regular, Shin, and/or Oni), Gill, Seth, Juri, Evil Ryu, Violent Ken, Dudley, Makoto, Q, Sakura, Maybe M.Bison. Not really Chun-Li, and I like Chun-Li, but I'm not interested in her being in Smash
-Kazuya (Normal and Devil), Jin (Normal and Devil), Jun (Normal and Unknown) (If Heihachi got in first, but I don't really want Heihachi)
-Vegeta, Broly, Goku Black, Hit, Gogeta (Of course of Goku were ever added)
-Noob, Rain, Smoke (if Scorpion were ever added). Sub would be cool as well, especially if he has noobish techniques in his moveset
-Iori, Kyo, Orochi, Rugal, Igniz, alot of the KOF Bosses actually, but Not Geese (Geese is fine, but not feeling it that much)
-Zero, Bass, Proto Man
-Venom (if Spider Man were ever added)
-Silver, Metal Sonic, Infinite, Mephilies, Chaos 0, Blaze, Omega, & Knuckles
-Henry Cooldown, Shinbou, Skelter Helter, Erman Palmer (If Travis ever got in)
-Sakyua Izayoi (If Reimu got in)
-Springtrap, Golden Freddy (if for some reason Freddy came alone, or these Two weren't alts)
-Alucard (Not into Castlevania, but Alucard seems cool from what I've seen)
-Patrick, Squidward, Mr.Krabs, Sandy, Plankton (if Spongebob ever got in)
-Riku, Roxas, Axel, Mickey Mouse, Xemnas, (if Sora ever got in)
 
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