Why do you think Geno, Lloyd and Hayabusa have more chance if there's a third pass? And why do you thin Geno have any chances in the first place?
I'll try to answer this simply.
Anyone who says Geno is deconfirmed is applying fan rules pushed by the community that have been destroyed since Pre-Brawl Era. Costumes do not deconfirm and neither does Sephiroth because implying Square Enix (or any other company) can only get one character a pass is simply a fan rule based on past precedent and nothing else...just like all the others to get destroyed.
The only way for people who aren't really open-minded enough to accept this is if a third pass is announced, just like how spirits never deconfirmed but most people didn't accept it until Min Min happened. This is because people are convinced that the words of the lead director can't change from one moment to the next when Nintendo is the one who decides if DLC continues and they have made massive money from these two passes, and if Sakurai said 'these are the last DLC characters' then it has to be true and thus we only have three slots left then a character from the same company or your character as a costume means death...even though it's much more likely it will continue on form here with at least one more pass.
So, in other words, both of these fan rules (one of which is merely a small step away from 'Spirits Deconfirm') hinge on the fact that Sakurai said Pass 2 was the end, although in reality this isn't true at all even without a second pass, but the announcement of a third would kill it.
If there is a third pass, obviously more characters means more chances, provided none of the first three character get in beforehand. However, there has been rumors and actual information floating around about the latter three I mentioned which suggests they are of a more concrete nature: in other words, you couldn't blame someone if they said 'This character is a lock'.
If we get a third pass, I think that the latter characters I mentioned are more liking to appear there due to timing, however if we DON'T get a third pass I still think they are very likely than thus they would take up the last three slots of FP2. Thus, based on all this, it's much better for the former three characters if a third pass is announced, regardless if you believe in fan rules, don't believe them, or just generally.
I...I think I failed to do it simply. Sorry. This is my third rewrite, so I'm just leaving it like this.
