Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Doc Monocle]

Kiddy Kong has an atrocious design. I hope he never gets in. I’d rather they figure out a way to have Cranky alongside Dixie.

I agree that almost every other Kong would be preferable to have in Smash Bros., but even I would admit that there are some possibilities that are interesting. For example, in BirthNote 's support thread for Dixie, the original post contains a particularly clever implementation of Kiddy Kong in Arcadenik 's moveset. He does not appear by 'wasting' a newcomer slot, is given a chance for recognition, and makes for a new tag-team character.

 

[CroonerMike]

So today I was thinking about the characters we have in Fighter Pass 2, I think lineup we have now is very interesting to say the least

Min Min, Steve, Sephiroth, Pyra/Mythra

However I want to pay attention to Steve. I think of all the characters in FP2, I think Steve went to perhaps the most interesting Arc. I remember when Steve was considered a Meme character back in Smash 4, since I know the Hardcore Speculation community did not take him seriously at all. The Casuals loved Steve, but not the Hardcore

With Ultimate though, Steve did start getting more traction and serious talks in the Hardcore speculation community, especially after Vergeben was mentioning some type of Minecraft content in the game, however I would say during the late stages of Base game speculation as well as Early FP1 speuclation, Steve was seen as a Villain, because he was preventing Banjo from getting in

But Banjo did get in, and it did turn out that Steve and Minecraft were the reason Banjo got in. however from this point Steve then lost alot of his favor and perceived likeihood. even with FP2 being announced, people were paying more attention to Master Chief (I was in this boat as well)

Steve had "a Revelation" that made him seem more unlikely to get in, and while he still had people who thought he can get in, a good amount I would say, he still got very overshadowed by Master Chief and stuff

So him getting in, Against the odds was a very exciting conclusion to the Saga, even If I'm not too attached to Steve much. Despite being considered old new in Speculation, and despite some doubt about his Implementation, he still got in. with this in mind, We have learned some valuable lessons from his Inclusion


Except...We might not have learned a valuable lesson from his Inclusion

Because what if I told you there is another character that is in a Similar situation to Steve, that Very FEW People are actually paying attention to. There is a character that I think should have gotten more spotlight after Steve got revealed, because the scenarios, while not one to one, are very similar to Steve in terms of the "Obstacles" they have to face despite the characters having all the merits to be included in Smash.

A Character where not Just Steve, but also Sephiroth, Min Min, and even some Mii costumes support the chance of their inclusion.

Today I Present

Smash Analysis: Shadow is in a Similar situation to Steve in Speculation.

When Steve got into Smash, I couldn't pinpoint why I thought his Inclusion meant good chances for the chance that Shadow was chosen for FP2, just that I knew that it helped, but then I was thinking about it and I might have an answer

Shadow and Steve are/were in Similar situations in terms of Speculation

-Both are characters that were very popular requests amongst the Casual Smash audience, however they had alot of pushback in the Hardcore Smash audience

-Both are characters that got more popularity in the Hardcore fandom overtime during Ultimate's Speculation cycle

-Both are characters that frequently have had/has alot of doubt about their implementation as a full fighter (that Steve couldn't fully work as a fighter, and that Shadow could only work as echo, or was only destined to be echo)

-Both had a revelation that made them seem more unlikely when they were considered very likely before (Shadow with the Assist Trophy, Steve with Banjo getting in)

-Both have/has been overshadowed by other characters from either the Same Franchise or Company (Eggman/Tails, and even Arle at times for Shadow, Master Chief for Steve)

-Both have had some inside info that may point to their inclusion (the Vergeben thing with Minecraft, and Papagenos Info that points to something regarding Legacy X, though I know people don't take Papa as very credible. yes)

-Both have the merits to be Full Fighter (Recognizability, Popularity, Relevance, Moveset potential, Ease of access regarding Rights, though Steve was said to be hard to Implement as a fighter in terms of the amount of work to do. Shadow probably wouldn't be that hard to Implement)

These are the Similarities. Of course the Situations are not 1 to 1, but there is some similarities here between these 2 characters, and with Steve getting in, I think these should be taken into account when Speculating Shadow

With the Avenue of Sephiroth getting in, as well as Pyra/Mythra, we see that New Franchises aren't as Prioritized as they were in FP1, so I think that Extremely helps Shadow.

Now yeah, I do understand if people think Eggman or Tails has a higher chance than Shadow does, but I think it's wrong to say that Shadow has no chance to playable, even with counting in the Assist Trophy

Shadow does have reasons to be in over Eggman or Tails. He's still a heavily recognizable character, so even if you want to argue Eggman and Tails are more recognizable, it's not to the point where the Gap would give them that big of an edge. Shadow I would also say was more popular of a request (Which goes along with him being the 2nd most popular in the Sonic fandom), and keep in mind that alot of the time he was requested, he was already in NPC Position. Eggman especially was never this popular of a Request as he is now. It's very recent

I think you may be grasping at any chance to figure out a way to will shadow into existence in the game. Not trying to be rude here, but it’s reaaaaally pushing it with some of your points.

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

TO BE FAIR, if they did decide to add Shadow as DLC, they could double back and just kinda go

"Uhhhh yeah the Assist Trophy? That's actually a Shadow ANDROID! Yeah, those guys. Why does it have Chaos powers? Uhhhhh I dunno, fake Chaos Emerald or Phantom Ruby or some bull like that. A FAKE CHAOS EMERALD HAS THE SAME PROPERTIES AS A REAL ONE.... which... would basically make it real? I dunno, I don't write these stories I just make DLC characters based on them."

 

[Otoad64]

TO BE FAIR, if they did decide to add Shadow as DLC, they could double back and just kinda go

"Uhhhh yeah the Assist Trophy? That's actually a Shadow ANDROID! Yeah, those guys. Why does it have Chaos powers? Uhhhhh I dunno, fake Chaos Emerald or Phantom Ruby or some bull like that. A FAKE CHAOS EMERALD HAS THE SAME PROPERTIES AS A REAL ONE.... which... would basically make it real? I dunno, I don't write these stories I just make DLC characters based on them."
View attachment 308003

honestly I actually would like that if they made it yellow and called it a Shadow Android

 

[7NATOR]

Interesting points, though I gotta say that even if the no AT promotions thing were to be true, Shadow could still get in as a playable fighter if they were to add his Boom incarnation.

That, or if they really wanted to, they could add in Shadow android, or retcon the Assist to be the Shadow android this whole time, but Adding Boom Shadow would really be adding in Vegeta the Hedgehog (from the Sayian/Frieza Saga)

You are REALLY determined to convince us Shadow still has a chance, aren't you?

I'm just trying to say my piece, because if Shadow does get in, I don't want to hear no one say that he was completely unexpected (Granted I won't care, because I'd be too hyped for Shadow being in the game)

Personally, I've felt that there's always been an agenda against Shadow the Hedgehog in this Speculation Community.

-People only saying he can be an Echo Fighter, when he has all the merits to be his Own character, and Alot of unique moves and properties he can bring

-People not even giving Shadow the time of day when listing realistic Assist Promotion characters, but will list Shovel Knight, Isaac, and Alucard, when Shadow can be argued to be more recognizable than even Sephiroth, and is very popular character

-Saying there's no reason to have Shadow over Tails or Eggman, when even people that have worked with Sonic (Aaron Webber being an example) saying that Shadow & Knuckles make sense as the 2nd character


It's just been infatuating to deal with. I've heard it from Here, Gamefaqs, Discord, etc. I've heard it from Papagenos, Fatmanonice.

I'm fine if you expect other characters, or if you expect Eggman or Tails over Shadow, since there is good reasons why they could get in over Shadow and such, and with hundreds of characters with their own merits, It's hard to just settle on just 2 characters. but I think it's the fact that make it seem that there's no reason he has to be added, or that he'd never be added on his own merits


Some of the same people that don't believe that Assists deconfirm, will tell me that Shadow is very unlikely, but they have only gave reasons that are able to be counter argued with some Logical Explanations. I've done this in the past in my Essay as an example, which you can read in the Sig

You can't argue that Shadow is unlikely from a Character merit standpoint. Shadow is

-Recognizable
-Very Popular, in terms of requests and in the Sonic fanbase itself
-Relevant
-Has Unique moveset potential, not just from Sonic, but from the rest of the Smash cast
-Should be able to be implemented in Smash
-Ease of Access, thanks to Sega and how they like Licensing out Sonic

I've countered the Assist Argument, I've countered the "Only as an Echo arguement", and Comparisons to Eggman and Tails is up to Interpretation of which one you feel is likely, but there is real evidence that Shadow should at least be in the discussion

I will acknowledge though that some of the theories I've made are "Off the wall", but that shouldn't subtract for the stuff that Shadow does have in his favor that's factual. that's just my Piece

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

honestly I actually would like that if they made it yellow and called it a Shadow Android

I mean, they changed the entire animation of the Final Smash of one of Cloud's alts, even though they really didn't have to, just because Sephiroth, so like... it's POSSIBLE.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I mean, they changed the entire animation of the Final Smash of one of Cloud's alts, even though they really didn't have to, just because Sephiroth, so like... it's POSSIBLE.

I still can't believe they went through the effort of editing every single fighter, stage, menu, spirit battle, item, Poke Ball, Assist Trophy, text string, song, voice clip, and even the intro just so Advent Children Cloud could have his own Final Smash.

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

I still can't believe they went through the effort of editing every single fighter, stage, menu, spirit battle, item, Poke Ball, Assist Trophy, text string, song, voice clip, and even the intro just so Advent Children Cloud could have his own Final Smash.

Did they really update ALL that? What did they change about Pokeballs?

 

[Megadoomer]

Personally, I've felt that there's always been an agenda against Shadow the Hedgehog in this Speculation Community.

-People only saying he can be an Echo Fighter, when he has all the merits to be his Own character, and Alot of unique moves and properties he can bring

-People not even giving Shadow the time of day when listing realistic Assist Promotion characters, but will list Shovel Knight, Isaac, and Alucard, when Shadow can be argued to be more recognizable than even Sephiroth, and is very popular character

-Saying there's no reason to have Shadow over Tails or Eggman, when even people that have worked with Sonic (Aaron Webber being an example) saying that Shadow & Knuckles make sense as the 2nd character
[...]

I've countered the Assist Argument, I've countered the "Only as an Echo arguement", and Comparisons to Eggman and Tails is up to Interpretation of which one you feel is likely, but there is real evidence that Shadow should at least be in the discussion

You didn't really address the assist trophy argument, though. Assist trophies, much like DLC Mii costumes (at least for characters who aren't already playable) have consistently been treated like consolation prizes since they were first introduced. (which, in the case of assist trophies, was over a decade ago - the picture's not from when assist trophies were introduced, but it helps to show that being an assist trophy means that a character won't be playable in the same game)

There's no guarantee that we'll even get an assist trophy promoted to playable through DLC, and the fact that we got Min Min over Spring Man (much like Pyra/Mythra over Rex) seems to be a sign that it might not be happening. (I'm sure the argument could be made that ARMS's producer said "everyone's a protagonist", but Spring Man being the face of ARMS, an assist trophy in Smash, and not even being considered for a playable role in Smash's DLC seems pretty damning from my perspective - from what Sakurai said, the choice was between Min Min and Ninjara)

 

[Guynamednelson]

Did they really update ALL that? What did they change about Pokeballs?

Nah, they didn't. I'm just making fun of the notion that disabling an AT when a certain fighter's around is a lot of work.

 

[Cosmic77]

Getting a Sonic character is a hurdle by itself. Getting Knuckles and Shadow specifically is an even bigger hurdle considering how there's two equally popular and important characters (Tails and Eggman) without an AT, one of which doesn't have any representation aside from a Spirit.

I think it's just too tempting for Sakurai to add a character who can blend in the easiest with existing content.

 

[Guynamednelson]

the choice was between Min Min and Ninjara

I still think it's a moveset thing. And never will stop thinking this unless Felix gets in without Isaac.

 

[Technomage]

There's no guarantee that we'll even get an assist trophy promoted to playable through DLC, and the fact that we got Min Min over Spring Man (much like Pyra/Mythra over Rex) seems to be a sign that it might not be happening. (I'm sure the argument could be made that ARMS's producer said "everyone's a protagonist", but Spring Man being the face of ARMS, an assist trophy in Smash, and not even being considered for a playable role in Smash's DLC seems pretty damning from my perspective - from what Sakurai said, the choice was between Min Min and Ninjara)

Plus, you can prove your point even more with this: They could have had AT Spring Man replaced with Springtron whenever fighter Spring Man is in the battle, but they didn't; that, in my opinion, makes it even more likely that ATs really do deconfirm (though I still personally wouldn't call it a 100% thing).

 

[Guynamednelson]

Plus, you can prove your point even more with this: They could have AT Spring Man replaced with Springtron whenever fighter Spring Man is in the battle, but they didn't; that, in my opinion, makes it even more likely that ATs really do deconfirm (though I still personally wouldn't call it a 100% thing).

Yabuki didn't randomly decide to become a Min Min fanboy just so Smash could get an ARMS fighter that wasn't an assist.

 

[SharkLord]

I don't want to get into yet another AT debate - We've made our points quite clear by now - But I will say that ATs can just be disabled if they're made playable. They do that with stage cameos, and ATs are already turned off on certain stages, where their respective mechanics would interfere with each other.

 

[Wunderwaft]

I wonder if we'll get a good fake leak again, it's been a while since we got one. Though part of me does think that if we do get one it might be when we're speculating about who the final character is. I dunno I feel like speculation gets crazier when we're at the final stretch.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I don't want to get into yet another AT debate - We've made our points quite clear by now - But I will say that ATs can just be disabled if they're made playable. They do that with stage cameos, and ATs are already turned off on certain stages, where their respective mechanics would interfere with each other.

At this point we'll still be debating about it even if the last two fighters are ATs.

 

[Shroob]

I wonder if we'll get a good fake leak again, it's been a while since we got one. Though part of me does think that if we do get one it might be when we're speculating about who the final character is. I dunno I feel like speculation gets crazier when we're at the final stretch.

They'll start crawling out of the woodwork closer to June.


Unless Nintendo suddenly goes "NEW SAKURAI PRESENTS" in the near future, most people will just wait until the e xpected June Direct announcement.

 

[Louie G.]

Personally, I've felt that there's always been an agenda against Shadow the Hedgehog in this Speculation Community.

I refute this because Shadow was a clear favorite all throughout base game speculation, many people pretty much considering him a lock as an echo fighter.

Perhaps you interpreted people’s expectations being regulated to echo fighter as an “agenda” against him, but you have to remember what the situation was at the time. There was no precedent for adding fully unique second “reps” from third parties with a character already in the game. We got Richter though, which got people thinking about other third parties - namely Ken and Shadow.

Like it or not, Shadow fits an echo role pretty well at face value. Maybe he could get a new Up B like Chrom and a new Final Smash, but otherwise Shadow is a literal clone of Sonic and is capable of pretty much everything he can do. I personally think Shadow ought to be a Luigi or Wolf esque derivative if anything, but you can’t blame people for trying to be realistic. It was really the only chance he had.

And then most people just take Assist Trophies at face value and believe those characters are out of the running until next time. You really can’t fault people for that, it’s very much an “I’ll believe it when I see it” deal where there’s zero precedent to expect AT promotions right now and no clear reason to pick Shadow specifically.

 

[SharkLord]

I wonder if we'll get a good fake leak again, it's been a while since we got one. Though part of me does think that if we do get one it might be when we're speculating about who the final character is. I dunno I feel like speculation gets crazier when we're at the final stretch.

Geno's spontaneous puppet combustion was the replacement for the major fake leaks for 2020. 2018 had the Grinch Leaks, 2019 had Cacomallow. 2020 had no major fake leak because those need Geno, and Geno committed Genot that year.

Unless, of course, we're basing this off of passes and not years, in which we're gonna get a big one at some point pretty soon.

 

[Shroob]

I refute this because Shadow was a clear favorite all throughout base game speculation, many people pretty much considering him a lock as an echo fighter.

Perhaps you interpreted people’s expectations being regulated to echo fighter as an “agenda” against him, but you have to remember what the situation was at the time. There was no precedent for adding fully unique second “reps” from third parties with a character already in the game. We got Richter though, which got people thinking about other third parties - namely Ken and Shadow.

Like it or not, Shadow fits an echo role pretty well at face value. Maybe he could get a new Up B like Chrom and a new Final Smash, but otherwise Shadow is a literal clone of Sonic and is capable of pretty much everything he can do. I personally think Shadow ought to be a Luigi or Wolf esque derivative if anything, but you can’t blame people for trying to be realistic. It was really the only chance he had.

Yeah, saying there's an "agenda" of all things against Shadow is kinda laughable.


He was arguably one of "the" most talked about characters after the August 2018 Direct, and the fact that he was front and center in Le Grinch Leak kinda reflects how obvious he would have been had he been made playable. Kinda silly to say people have an "Agenda" against Shadow when he used to be the most discussed Echo aside from Ken is silly.

 

[Wunderwaft]

They'll start crawling out of the woodwork closer to June.


Unless Nintendo suddenly goes "NEW SAKURAI PRESENTS" in the near future, most people will just wait until the e xpected June Direct announcement.

You think so? I imagine we might see it a month or two after the June presentation rather than close to it. Either way I feel like enough time passed for a well done fake leak. Whether it's extra well done is yet to be seen

 

[Shroob]

You think so? I imagine we might see it a month or two after the June presentation rather than close to it. Either way I feel like enough time passed for a well done fake leak. Whether it's extra well done is yet to be seen

People will be chasing that sweet clout of who gets to leak Nintendo's "E3" showing first. I don't think so, I know so.

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

Why do we wanna see FAKE leaks beyond "it gives me stuff to talk about with my friends like "HEY I THINK THAT RAT'S GETTIN BIG!" " ?


We SHOULD be trading Burger King Whoppers and coupons for Pizza Hut for REAL leaks. A fair trade, I'd say. You get a Whopper and fries, even a drink. We get a Smash character leak. You benefit from this deal because you get THREE things when we only get one.

 

[SharkLord]

You think so? I imagine we might see it a month or two after the June presentation rather than close to it. Either way I feel like enough time passed for a well done fake leak. Whether it's extra well done is yet to be seen

Plot twist: The leak is quite literally just a well-done steak as a fighter. That's it, that's the leak.

 

[Shroob]

Plot twist: The leak is quite literally just a well-done steak as a fighter. That's it, that's the leak.

Steak
Turns up the heat!

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

Plot twist: The leak is quite literally just a well-done steak as a fighter. That's it, that's the leak.

Steak? Makes me think of Prime Rib... watch out, you're gonna bring back that Retro Studios... whatever... that had to do with Prime Ribs or something. I honestly forgot what it was truly.

 

[Technomage]

Plot twist: The leak is quite literally just a well-done steak as a fighter. That's it, that's the leak.

That gonna be the new design for Super Meat Boy? Then that confirms it: Super Meat Boy for CP 10/11.

 

[Wunderwaft]

People will be chasing that sweet clout of who gets to leak Nintendo's "E3" showing first. I don't think so, I know so.

Hmm but another point arises which is who might be the character chosen for the leak? It's well known that leaks only gain notice if it's someone really popular with this fandom, it's the most surefire way to get attention for your leak. I'm thinking Crash might be it, but who else might fit the bill?

 

[Shroob]

Hmm but another point arises which is who might be the character chosen for the leak? It's well known that leaks only gain notice if it's someone really popular with this fandom, it's the most surefire way to get attention for your leak. I'm thinking Crash might be it, but who else might fit the bill?

Crash
Master Chief
Hayabusa


Pick one of the three speculation darlings and spin the wheel of ****.

 

[SharkLord]

Crash
Master Chief
Hayabusa


Pick one of the three speculation darlings and spin the wheel of ****.

Huh, never really thought of Master Chief as one of the speculation darlings, at least not around here. He gets brought up as a possibility since the one-per-company thing was just a pattern and not a rule, but Crash and Hayabusa are the only ones who are considered the absolute 100% safest picks. MH was getting there, misconceptions and Byleth and the monsters aside, but then the Miis happened.

 

[Shroob]

Huh, never really thought of Master Chief as one of the speculation darlings, at least not around here. He gets brought up as a possibility since the one-per-company thing was just a pattern and not a rule, but Crash and Hayabusa are the only ones who are considered the absolute 100% safest picks. MH was getting there, misconceptions and Byleth and the monsters aside, but then the Miis happened.

MC's been gaining ground because of the "E3 is Microsoft territory" theory getting pushed by YouTubers. Idk if it's gained a lot of ground here per se, but I've seen a lot of "So Banjo was at E3 and Steve probably would have been too, so... Chief next?!"

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

Huh, never really thought of Master Chief as one of the speculation darlings, at least not around here. He gets brought up as a possibility since the one-per-company thing was just a pattern and not a rule, but Crash and Hayabusa are the only ones who are considered the absolute 100% safest picks. MH was getting there, misconceptions and Byleth and the monsters aside, but then the Miis happened.

People really thought Chiefster was comin until Steve took the Microsoft slot in FP2

 

[Guynamednelson]

MC's been gaining ground because of the "E3 is Microsoft territory" theory getting pushed by YouTubers. Idk if it's gained a lot of ground here per se, but I've seen a lot of "So Banjo was at E3 and Steve probably would have been too, so... Chief next?!"

Seems like a lucky coincidence. They weren't chosen to be shown at E3 because of Microsoft, it's because they would make people want to buy the pass.

 

[SharkLord]

MC's been gaining ground because of the "E3 is Microsoft territory" theory getting pushed by YouTubers. Idk if it's gained a lot of ground here per se, but I've seen a lot of "So Banjo was at E3 and Steve probably would have been too, so... Chief next?!"

Ah, that makes sense.

...

Wait we've been taking Microsoft E3 seriously

 

[Shroob]

Seems like a lucky coincidence. They weren't chosen to be shown at E3 because of Microsoft, it's because they would make people want to buy the pass.

Hey, I didn't make the theory, that's just what's spreading like a disease off-site.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Oh and another thing I've noticed. Ultimate modding has progressed real well lately and we even have people making unique mods for characters like Akuma and Goku. With how modding has become better, I wonder if someone might create a mod and parade it as a leak for the next character.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I wonder if someone might create a mod and parade it as a leak for the next character.

I'm sure someone's already done something like that. Involving Mii costumes for...who was it again? Booster and Lost Soul?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I'm sure someone's already done something like that. Involving Mii costumes for...who was it again? Booster and Lost Soul?

Don’t speak of that or we will have another five pages talking about you know what. We already talked on ATs I don’t wanna beat another dead horse lolz

 

[Shroob]

Don’t speak of that or we will have another five pages talking about you know what. We already talked on ATs I don’t wanna beat another dead horse lolz

Oh c'mon, it's not like the angry spirit of the leak is gonna rise from the grave and grab us if we speak its name, watch, I'll do it.


Cacomallow!
Cacomallow!
Cacom----



Cacamallow is real! can be heard in the distance