Kinda feel like that theory means more of a chance for characters that missed representation entirely due to being slightly too late to the party.
Another Sonic character? Sure, but Knuckles & Shadow's already repped, so it's more likely to be Tails or Dr. Robotnik.
Another Mario character? Always a possibility, but Waluigi is already an assist trophy and as we've already seen with Min Min getting in over Springman (because he's already a trophy) as well as Pythra (because Rex is a Mii and the real draw are the blades anyway), he's not likely to get a 'second chance' since he's already in as a trophy. We're more likely to get Kamek, Captain Toad, Toadette, or King Boo than Waluigi.
Tails and Dr. Robotnik are already Spirits though, and Tails is a Mii costume as well. Also by that logic, characters like Chun-Li wouldn't count for the theory since she's represented as a Spirit too
Now actually regarding stuff like Min Min being in over Spring Man and Rex being the Mii but not Pyra or Mythra, I actually do think perhaps there is good reason to believe Min Min and Pyra/Mythra were more of the considered fighters over Rex and Spring Man, even back when FP2 was not a thing, and that's why Rex and Spring Man got the type of content they did. Now with that being said, I think there are things separating characters like Rex and Spring Man and Waluigi and Shadow, and there are some things I would like to mention
Lots of Smash Bros. tidbits from Sakurai - DLC talk, Goku unlikely, not thinking about another ballot, more - Nintendo Everything
-Sakurai stated that DLC wasn't a thing around Jaunuary 11th of 2018 or Before, and it was planned without the developers will. by that statement, I assume most of the Base game was built around the idea of No DLC at First
-Characters like Waluigi and Shadow are Veteran Assist trophies, not brand new ones
-Why that point matters is that there is evidence to suggest FP2 might have been thought of, but wasn't a guarantee. If FP2 was always gonna be a thing, I doubt Rex would be a Bonus costume, and Nia a Base game costume, along with XB2 getting 3 music tracks
The Assist trophies that did not return for Ultimate (since not everyone did) were either already playable on the Base roster, or were characters not popular enough to keep their Assist (Magnus, Saki, Tingle, etc). Alot of the Returning Assists, and especially the New assists were popular characters in some way (I Imagine as an example, Isaac coming back as an assist was due to him being really popular)
Characters like Waluigi, Shadow, and others losing their assists would be a downgrade in representation from what they already had, and Since FP2 wasn't a sure thing, if it didn't happen those characters would be seen on the same wavelength as characters like Tingle, when that's not the case
Which is why I could see characters like Waluigi and Shadow being considered Second chance characters, despite them already having Assists.
And I think Waluigi is also interesting since Waluigi has apparently been in the Rumor mill for awhile. Now the Rumors have come from people that aren't seen as the most reliable (Paragon, and Fatmanonice), so take that as you will since I've not seen people like Iike Imran or Vergeben back those Claims
Lmao, I can stop you right here, the deconfirm for FP5 was ONLY for FP5.
I should know, I was in that Deconfirm dance, since Vergeben, and the main source we know (with that person that shall be RETRACTED) was literally the same.
Which brings me to this. I thank you for your input, now with that being said, While I do acknowledge that you were in the Deconfirm dance, there still are some things that still didn't seem right, and a part of why I made the theory
It's heavily implied that the Source did not know Byleth was fighter 5, because otherwise I don't think stuff like the situation with KOS-MOS would have happened, or some of the inaccuracies with the OLD List Vergeben had
What I could see is that the Source knew the character was a Nintendo character, but not exactly who, which I think makes some lick of sense. However there is still the problem with something Vergeben said regarding the old Inaacurate list
Vergeben said that the Old List was due to Communication issues, as explained here
HUGE UPDATE. PLEASE READ. Very important clarification about deconfirms today! - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (gamespot.com)
Source only said specific characters Vergeben listed were deconfirmed, but the Companies were still in play, but there are couple issues though
-If the Source knew the character was from Nintendo, I imagine the Companies besides Nintendo would have been able to be deconfirmed. I could see maybe that it would have caused trouble if Everyone knew the character was from Nintendo (even if not exactly who), but still
-Stuff like Microsoft characters, Assist Characters, Konami characters, and Epic Games characters were absent from the More accurate list, up until the day Byleth was revealed, which leaves inaccuracies of why exactly those Companies were on the Old Deconfirm list, but not on the New one
Pretty much the thing that is brought to question is how the Source were able to Deconfirm these characters/companies. It would seem he didn't exactly know Byleth was Fighter 5, and perhaps even unsure if it was a Nintendo character, So in order to deconfirm, he would have had to have known in some way the characters on the list were not happening
We also know that FP2 was being finalized, and perhaps was already finalized by the time the Deconfirm list was really gaining traction (since Byleth's Presentation was in November, when Sakurai said the Fighter Pass 2 was decided)
So pretty much the gist is that while the intention was really only for Fighter 5, it's possible that because FP2 was finalizing at the time, that info on that might have been caught up in the info and why perhaps trying to narrow down Fighter 5 was kind of hard and required deconfirm lists, that's the theory anyway
And how this would relate to assists, it could imply that Assist characters might be promoted in this Pass as playable, which would relate to Second Chance. However there's also the thought that Bomberman might have been what it was talking about, at least as a Premium Mii, since Konami wasn't on the new list, and Premium costumes have been heavily heard more often than regular ones (Undertale rumors, Bethesda Rumors, Cuphead), but Apparently characters like Waluigi were heavily in the rumor mill, so I'm not exactly sure. yes