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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

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Evil Trapezium

Smash Master
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May 16, 2019
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GuyManRunnin
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SW-2246-2414-0334

Adrianette Bromide

Smash Lord
Joined
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Location
Beeland Capital
I'm beyond excited.
More than Half of my life, dreaming as a kid that a character, that I saw as a friend as a kid and have a personal emotional attach to, will join the fray in my favorite series of game?
I still think I'm ****ing dreaming, this can't be true lmao. Ain't believing it until I turn the game on and don't see Cinderace or Jonesy
What you do if you wake up in an AU where Mario went to grab that small fireball and Cinderace jumped down and punted it in his face killing Mario yet again.
cue SwSh music
CINDERACE KICKS IN!
Sakurai: "What? Can you believe it? Cinderace from Pokemon Sword and Shield. So, what is Pokemon? proceeds to explain Pokemon's deep history"
 

Cap'n Jack

Smash Lord
Joined
Apr 23, 2015
Messages
1,345
What you do if you wake up in an AU where Mario went to grab that small fireball and Cinderace jumped down and punted it in his face killing Mario yet again.
cue SwSh music
CINDERACE KICKS IN!
Sakurai: "What? Can you believe it? Cinderace from Pokemon Sword and Shield. So, what is Pokemon? proceeds to explain Pokemon's deep history"
I honestly thought it was about to be Cinderace for a moment
 

Professor Pumpkaboo

Lady Layton| Trap Queen♥
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80,066
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Switch FC
SW: 5586-2837-4585
What you do if you wake up in an AU where Mario went to grab that small fireball and Cinderace jumped down and punted it in his face killing Mario yet again.
cue SwSh music
CINDERACE KICKS IN!
Sakurai: "What? Can you believe it? Cinderace from Pokemon Sword and Shield. So, what is Pokemon? proceeds to explain Pokemon's deep history"
At first, I thought it was that stupid ass rabbit so I ignored the stream until I saw they mickey keychain
 

DarthEnderX

Smash Hero
Joined
Nov 10, 2014
Messages
7,792
I guess I have a hard time relating to the NSO being high. I understand intellectually why it is high, but it ends up being less than five dollars a month for games that I would have to purchase for more than five dollars at a vintage gaming store, paid more than five dollars back on the Wii VC days or would have to get an unofficial or illegal fan made port that just isn’t the same.
Yeah but in those instances you A. Get to PICK what game you're getting, and B. Get to KEEP the game once you've paid for it.

If you don't KEEP paying for NSO, you lose all those games, and also they can just choose to release games you don't want.
 
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Cap'n Jack

Smash Lord
Joined
Apr 23, 2015
Messages
1,345
Yeah but in those instances you A. Get to PICK what game you're getting, and B. Get to KEEP the game once you've paid for it.

If you don't KEEP paying for NSO, you lose all those games, and also they can just choose to release games you don't want.
I certainly understand the concept of ownership vs streaming. Again all points are valid to find the new service overpriced. I just personally don’t see it super high when priced in my monthly budget. But I also don’t have other gaming services
 

Cap'n Jack

Smash Lord
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Apr 23, 2015
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1,345
Wonder how much we’ll see Sora online in after month of release. Characters like Banjo and Steve got loads of hype, but they are not common to come across online, meanwhile Pyra/Mythra and Byleth were both received far leas hype, but they are amongst the most common characters I see online.

I think the only character that got both hype and is a fairly popular pick is King K Rool. I see that ******* every night.
 

Adrianette Bromide

Smash Lord
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Dec 22, 2020
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Beeland Capital
How do you think a character like Ruby Heart or... AMINGO would be handled if they were in Smash? 50% of their crossover game series is based in video games but another half is based in comics. Like imagine having Captain America's Theme as a song you can play in Smash would definitely be... rule breaking.
 

3BitSaurus

Smash Master
Joined
May 6, 2019
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4,298
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Nowhere (no, not the Islands)
How do you think a character like Ruby Heart or... AMINGO would be handled if they were in Smash? 50% of their crossover game series is based in video games but another half is based in comics. Like imagine having Captain America's Theme as a song you can play in Smash would definitely be... rule breaking.
I guess they could just handle it as "the Capcom Vs. series" and include only the original compositions. Pretty much all of the OST for MvC2 is original, if I remember correctly. So are several songs from other Vs. games, like CvS.

Though it's hard to tell how many "branches" of the Vs. series we'd get with a character like Ruby Heart or Amingo, who belong exclusively to one specific part of the series.
 

Shroob

Sup?
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Sep 26, 2013
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40,628
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Washington
Wonder how much we’ll see Sora online in after month of release. Characters like Banjo and Steve got loads of hype, but they are not common to come across online, meanwhile Pyra/Mythra and Byleth were both received far leas hype, but they are amongst the most common characters I see online.

I think the only character that got both hype and is a fairly popular pick is King K Rool. I see that ******* every night.
tbh, I wouldn't want to play someone like Steve with Nintendo's online.
 

Ivander

Smash Legend
Joined
Dec 1, 2014
Messages
10,353
How do you think a character like Ruby Heart or... AMINGO would be handled if they were in Smash? 50% of their crossover game series is based in video games but another half is based in comics. Like imagine having Captain America's Theme as a song you can play in Smash would definitely be... rule breaking.
I curiously wonder what the situation would be with the Marvel songs if a rep with "Vs. Capcom" content got in. Cause....the songs did originate from video games, although would Disney be the copyright holders to those? Or Capcom? Like, I can understand some of the songs like "Take you for a Ride" or the Character Select screens or even the Stage themes throughout the games, like the TvC or MvC2/MvC3 Stage themes, being Capcoms. But not so sure about the songs made for the Marvel characters, like Spiderman's Theme or Captain America's theme.
 

7NATOR

Smash Master
Joined
Feb 13, 2016
Messages
4,085
Looks like I won't be able to beat Kingdom Hearts 2 before Sora comes out haha. (I had less time this week than I expected; I only managed to beat Timeless River and the first part of Port Royal) Still, I'll play what I can of the game today and tomorrow morning.

I'm surprised that Sora isn't going to have many spirit battles - I get that 13's a recurring number in the Kingdom Hearts franchise (between the five fighter spirits and the eight battles on the spirit board), but unless Riku (or Terra? I haven't played Birth By Sleep, but I'm aware that something similar happens to him) can be enhanced, I'm surprised that there aren't any Xehanort spirits, and no Organization XIII spirits beyond Roxas, Xion, and Axel.
It feels a little weird to say this when we haven't even gotten Sora released yet, but

It's possible they saving those Spirits or characters for Smash 6, when they add in another KH Character. Kingdom Hearts is about the Light and the Darkness. We got the Light (Sora), so what about the Darkness?
 

DaybreakHorizon

The guy who predicted Sora as Fighter 11
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Yeah, I first encountered you postings after that post of mine on the Rapper Mario leak. I've been reading through your essays one by one in some of my downtime. You're definitely very thorough in your writings.

Since you're the most seasoned speculator here, constructive criticism? How would you rate my first at bat?
I certainly wouldn't call myself the MOST seasoned speculator here lmao. That title is definitely in contention with multiple users here ( Scoliosis Jones Scoliosis Jones and ChronoBound ChronoBound immediately come to mind, and more recently there's SharkLord SharkLord and Speed Weed Speed Weed when he's serious), and I wouldn't even venture to call myself one of the best. I'm simply an essay hobbyist looking to put my philosophy minor to work. On the way I made some right calls, and I made some not so right calls (RIP Lloyd Irving–didn't survive the slaughter :(). Ultimately, I just so happened to swing decently this cycle. Nothing more and nothing less.

That being said, I do love giving feedback, so before this thread dies here's what I have to say in regard to the two posts you made:
  • I think your biggest problem is that you make too many leaps in logic. It's a common mistake, but you should always consider Occam's Razor (how logically simple is your argument) and whether what you're saying holds up to it.
    • On your post about "information poisoning" as you call it, you make a huge leap in logic by assuming that Nintendo honestly cares what we think. Smash is a game that reaches a far wider audience than fringe speculation sites like here, so why would Nintendo care what we think? How does that harm their internal operations? Answer: it doesn't. We are nothing more than an infinitesimal spec to Nintendo, and they could care less what our community thinks unless we band together en masse through official channels (see: the Smash Ballot)
      • You seem to be on the right track, but automatically assume you're right when there's no evidence to back up your points on this one. Speculation should always be based on evidence; the burden of proof is always on you to back up your claims. If you can't that's okay (we don't have all of the facts and we never will), but you should make it clear that you're making assumptions instead of trying to claim they're fact.
      • There's also the point that leak bait was a known concept long before you posted about it...yet you touted it as a new revolutionary breakthrough. Always make sure that you're the first one to introduce a term before you act like you're the one who introduced it.
    • Your Senran Kagura post is interesting to say the least. You claim that Asuka could be brought in because the creator of her series would ask Sakurai for it, but you never make any sort of statement as to how the creator of Senran Kagura and Sakurai are related. You don't provide any evidence for the core of your argument, and as such it falls apart in the face of any counterargument.
      • It's clear you make more of an effort to use evidence, which is good! However, the evidence you use is outdated or weak, and as such your sources aren't the sinkers you think they are.
        • Sakurai and Kojima's original talk to get Snake in Brawl took place in 2008. It was clearly a special circumstance for a really good friend of Sakurai's, and there have been no reported cases of such a thing happening again. Unless Sakurai and the creator of Senran Kagura have been besties for years (which you don't prove), this claim falls apart entirely.
        • The tweets you use also don't prove anything besides that the creator of Senran Kagura is a fan of Smash...which a lot of game series creators are. What makes this case different? Your evidence proves support, but it doesn't prove likelihood.
        • The points about Sakurai and CERO and Nintendo's recent attempts to appeal to mature audiences are valid, but you also have cases of Sakurai bowing to CERO and the ESRB in Smash Ultimate (see: Mythra's Spirit Battle), and a clear avoidance of risque themes in the game. Nintendo's attempts to appeal to mature audiences in a sexual way have also been halfhearted at best, as besides the examples you provided there haven't been any in recent times. The precedent kind of sides in your favor, but it could go either way.
        • The points Playstation are wholly unnecessary, and serve only as fluff to lengthen the piece. Playstation's policies have no bearing on Nintendo's, and while a shift in corporate culture is interesting, it could be indicative of many things and not just Smash. It's a weak point that does nothing to strengthen your argument, and could be removed entirely to no significant effect.
        • Finally: Don't. ever. use. fan. theories. for. serious. speculation. Fan theories have always been incredibly flimsy at best, and more often than not are completely fake or meaningless (or both). I guess it's neat that Asuka would've fit within such an arbitrary set of criterion, but that's all a fan theory is: an arbitrary set of criteria created by a fan without all of the facts, often requiring some set of mental gymnastics to justify. It's not a strong point by any means.
        • As a side note, I wouldn't recommend going all-in ever unless it's for a funny bet. If you stake your reputation on what you think to be foregone conclusions, your credibility is probably going to take a swirl down the drain (which I don't think you want).
You're certainly on the right track, but I'd recommend some classes or reading up on argumentative writing and logic if you want to be a really good speculator like you seem to want to be. Good thing is you'll have plenty of time before the next cycle really starts up, so there's time for you to refine your skills. Best of luck!
 
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SharkLord

Smash Hero
Joined
Jun 20, 2020
Messages
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Pangaea, 250 MYA
I certainly wouldn't call myself the MOST seasoned speculator here lmao. That title is definitely in contention with multiple users here ( Scoliosis Jones Scoliosis Jones and ChronoBound ChronoBound immediately come to mind, and more recently there's SharkLord SharkLord and Speed Weed Speed Weed when he's serious), and I wouldn't even venture to call myself one of the best. I'm simply an essay hobbyist looking to put my philosophy minor to work. On the way I made some right calls, and I made some not so right calls (RIP Lloyd Irving–didn't survive the slaughter :(). Ultimately, I just so happened to swing decently this cycle. Nothing more and nothing less.
Huh, I didn't really expect to be held up as a major speculator. I mean, yeah, I did try to spin some theories and I used to put out some essays, but I kinda dropped off somewhere between Sephiroth and Kazuya. I was one of the more active members back then, but now I've kinda just fizzled out. Even back then I didn't really think of myself as all that prolific, aside from being the guy who talks about Touhou and Ys a lot. Heck, Pyra was the only character I ever got right, and that's just by proxy of Rex being the Plan A. I was just some dude with a lot of time on his hands from the pandemic and nothing better to do apparently; I'm honored to be considered among the most seasoned speculators around these parts, but it's also kind of a weird feeling because that's not something I really saw coming.
 
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kirbstr

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Aug 11, 2017
Messages
178
Location
Planet Popstar
Wonder how much we’ll see Sora online in after month of release. Characters like Banjo and Steve got loads of hype, but they are not common to come across online, meanwhile Pyra/Mythra and Byleth were both received far leas hype, but they are amongst the most common characters I see online.

I think the only character that got both hype and is a fairly popular pick is King K Rool. I see that ******* every night.
Because there is only one rule that has stayed consistent throughout every iteration of smash: people don't give a **** who or what the character is as long as they are fun to play. That goes the other way as well. People can want a character in the game because of the connection they have to them, but that doesn't always mean they'll want to play as that character once they finally get in. Similarly, people can dislike the inclusion of a character, but love playing as them.

This is nothing really new, it's happened countless times before. Captain Falcon and Marth were the OGs. Then Pit, ROB, ZSS, Corrin, Incineroar ect.

No one liked Brawl Sonic despite him being possibly the most requested character of all time prior to that. The reason you see so many K Rools, Clouds, Jokers, and Sephiroths is because everyone likes playing as them AND they were highly popular character requests.
 

SKX31

Smash Master
Joined
Feb 22, 2019
Messages
3,463
Location
Sweden
Wonder how much we’ll see Sora online in after month of release. Characters like Banjo and Steve got loads of hype, but they are not common to come across online, meanwhile Pyra/Mythra and Byleth were both received far leas hype, but they are amongst the most common characters I see online.

I think the only character that got both hype and is a fairly popular pick is King K Rool. I see that ******* every night.
It does feel like a coin toss, but I feel kinda yes because he checks most of the "online" boxes:

1. Is this character simple / does the character have some form of obvious reward? :ultkrool: is a great example since he's one of the game's easiest characters to pick up and a casual player can rely on some really simple stuff (Cannonball / Crown + just throwing attacks around). Also, while he's hindered a bit by the online (his confirms in particular) Rool doesn't have to worry about the "Heavy Tax" or players exploiting say the air speed as much. Especially not casually.

Sora to me looks like a "Probably" since he'll have magic to help zone, Sonic Blade's going to be less punishable online (and a lot of people might not know how to) and he does have some long-lingering attacks - which also survives online pretty well. Not entirely sure about whether people will generally like his damage output on singular hits, but still.

2. Is the character forgiving when it comes to inevitable mistakes? The online and the buffer can together conspire to produce some of the most awkward SDs. And we all know the stereotypical :ultmario: / :ultdk: player who will often go for that crazy off stage F-Air spike only to be no where near the opponent's ZIP code. Now K Rool can do that with ease thanks to the Up B (the only caveat is the huge ending lag he has on the aerials) and the traditional method of intercepting the propeller - from the side - is more difficult.

Sora... yeah, Sakurai showed off how forgiving he is off stage. To the point where a missed D-Air (from high enough) or whatever is not going to be a big issue since he has a Ness double jump, Up B and Side B to help recover. The weight could render him vurnerable to early kills, but those have to make sure he's 100 % done.
3. How is the character nerfed by the online - and how much? Every character's nerfed by the online, but :ultchrom: 's a standout example of a character that does not like the online. AT ALL. Okay, this might not be much of an issue casually, but Chrom's damage output is heavily centered around fastfall confirms / combos. That gets much more difficult to pull off online, needless to say. While he has an amazing air speed and an Up B that can straight up pull edgeguarding opponents to their doom, his double jump is one of the lowest and his fall speed ensues his disadvantage problems are exasperated.

Sora doesn't seem to have many problems here either. The main issue online might have on him might be landing or accidentally buffering a button, but he's not going to be nerfed by the online in many other regards. In fact, the increased difficulties of landing subsuquent hits may help a floaty character like him. See :ultness: .

So yeah, Sora looks to be in safe territory. I could be wrong, but still.

How do you think a character like Ruby Heart or... AMINGO would be handled if they were in Smash? 50% of their crossover game series is based in video games but another half is based in comics. Like imagine having Captain America's Theme as a song you can play in Smash would definitely be... rule breaking.
Difficult to say, but Nintendo would probably opt for negotiating with both Marvel and Capcom (akin to Sora) just to be on the safe side of things. The Marvel side of things may not be represented (much) for to the same licensing cost reasons as Disney, but might get quite a few shoutouts (especially in the Presents). If either are included - no matter which form, playable or not - they're probably going to represent MvC or Capcom Vs. as a general format with the other related stuff coming from the Vs. games.

The copyrights are going to be especially difficult as Ivander Ivander said, and might relate not just to the character(s) but also stage and music. So in the end it's going to be very difficult to say what kind of stage or music would be included assuming they'd work out Ruby Heart / Amingo.
 
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AinsOoalGown

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 14, 2019
Messages
130
I honestly thought it was about to be Cinderace for a moment
Never made sense to me to assume that from the fire. Pokemon are at the end of the day funny creatures that battle. Greninja just joined some field battle going on, Incineroar joined a stadium to fit the pro-wrestling theme. But they just battle, you dont make a trailer for a pokemon where they must save the Toy-Trophy-People universe from being frozen into the Void.
 

DaybreakHorizon

The guy who predicted Sora as Fighter 11
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Huh, I didn't really expect to be held up as a major speculator. I mean, yeah, I did try to spin some theories and I used to put out some essays, but I kinda dropped off somewhere between Sephiroth and Kazuya. I was one of the more active members back then, but now I've kinda just fizzled out. Even back then I didn't really think of myself as all that prolific, aside from being the guy who talks about Touhou and Ys a lot. Heck, Pyra was the only character I ever got right, and that's just by proxy of Rex being the Plan A. I was just some dude with a lot of time on his hands from the pandemic and nothing better to do apparently; I'm honored to be considered among the most seasoned speculators around these parts, but it's also kind of a weird feeling because that's not something I really saw coming.
Bro do you think I saw it coming? No. I just wrote essays on funny party fighting game and now I'm some weird C-list speculator in the core Smash community.

I fizzled out around Sephiroth and Kazuya too, but you made some solid write-ups regardless so I'd definitely consider you a prominent speculator.
 
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Speed Weed

Smash Master
Joined
May 16, 2020
Messages
3,616
Location
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I certainly wouldn't call myself the MOST seasoned speculator here lmao. That title is definitely in contention with multiple users here ( Scoliosis Jones Scoliosis Jones and ChronoBound ChronoBound immediately come to mind, and more recently there's SharkLord SharkLord and Speed Weed Speed Weed when he's serious), and I wouldn't even venture to call myself one of the best. I'm simply an essay hobbyist looking to put my philosophy minor to work. On the way I made some right calls, and I made some not so right calls (RIP Lloyd Irving–didn't survive the slaughter :(). Ultimately, I just so happened to swing decently this cycle. Nothing more and nothing less.

That being said, I do love giving feedback, so before this thread dies here's what I have to say in regard to the two posts you made:
  • I think your biggest problem is that you make too many leaps in logic. It's a common mistake, but you should always consider Occam's Razor (how logically simple is your argument) and whether what you're saying holds up to it.
    • On your post about "information poisoning" as you call it, you make a huge leap in logic by assuming that Nintendo honestly cares what we think. Smash is a game that reaches a far wider audience than fringe speculation sites like here, so why would Nintendo care what we think? How does that harm their internal operations? Answer: it doesn't. We are nothing more than an infinitesimal spec to Nintendo, and they could care less what our community thinks unless we band together en masse through official channels (see: the Smash Ballot)
      • You seem to be on the right track, but automatically assume you're right when there's no evidence to back up your points on this one. Speculation should always be based on evidence; the burden of proof is always on you to back up your claims. If you can't that's okay (we don't have all of the facts and we never will), but you should make it clear that you're making assumptions instead of trying to claim they're fact.
      • There's also the point that leak bait was a known concept long before you posted about it...yet you touted it as a new revolutionary breakthrough. Always make sure that you're the first one to introduce a term before you act like you're the one who introduced it.
    • Your Senran Kagura post is interesting to say the least. You claim that Asuka could be brought in because the creator of her series would ask Sakurai for it, but you never make any sort of statement as to how the creator of Senran Kagura and Sakurai are related.You don't provide any evidence for the core of your argument, and as such it falls apart in the face of any counterargument.
      • It's clear you make more of an effort to use evidence, which is good! However, the evidence you use is outdated or weak, and as such your sources aren't the sinkers you think they are.
        • Sakurai and Kojima's original talk to get Snake in Brawl took place in 2008. It was clearly a special circumstance for a really good friend of Sakurai's, and there have been no reported cases of such a thing happening again. Unless Sakurai and the creator of Senran Kagura have been besties for years (which you don't prove), this claim falls apart entirely.
        • The tweets you use also don't prove anything besides that the creator of Senran Kagura is a fan of Smash...which a lot of game series creators are. What makes this case different? Your evidence proves support, but it doesn't prove likelihood.
        • The points about Sakurai and CERO and Nintendo's recent attempts to appeal to mature audiences are valid, but you also have cases of Sakurai bowing to CERO and the ESRB in Smash Ultimate (see: Mythra's Spirit Battle), and a clear avoidance of risque themes in the game. Nintendo's attempts to appeal to mature audiences in a sexual way have also been halfhearted at best, as besides the examples you provided there haven't been any in recent times. The precedent kind of sides in your favor, but it could go either way.
        • The points Playstation are wholly unnecessary, and serve only as fluff to lengthen the piece. Playstation's policies have no bearing on Nintendo's, and while a shift in corporate culture is interesting, it could be indicative of many things and not just Smash. It's a weak point that does nothing to strengthen your argument, and could be removed entirely to no significant effect.
        • Finally: Don't. ever. use. fan. theories. for. serious. speculation. Fan theories have always been incredibly flimsy at best, and more often than not are completely fake or meaningless (or both). I guess it's neat that Asuka would've fit within such an arbitrary set of criterion, but that's all a fan theory is: an arbitrary set of criteria created by a fan without all of the facts, often requiring some set of mental gymnastics to justify. It's not a strong point by any means.
        • As a side note, I wouldn't recommend going all-in ever unless it's for a funny bet. If you stake your reputation on what you think to be foregone conclusions, your credibility is probably going to take a swirl down the drain (which I don't think you want).
You're certainly on the right track, but I'd recommend some classes or reading up on argumentative writing and logic if you want to be a really good speculator like you seem to want to be. Good thing is you'll have plenty of time before the next cycle really starts up, so there's time for you to refine your skills. Best of luck!
Woah, I'm curious, what makes me a seasoned speculator in your eyes
 
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