I'm going to hold onto my big Deluxe post until that thread exists. This is gonna be a doozy.
Also people aren't bringing up preparation. Someone else on this thread just brought it up, myabe it was
pupNapoleon
? It's clear that Sakurai negotiated for characters to show up in Ultimate from Smash 4 ahead of time, so why wouldn't he just do the same here?
If Deluxe really is a thing, it has to be approved of already. This means that for each character negotiation, you would have to also agree for them to be in the next game. I would think Sakurai would get that out of the way now rather than have to go back later and change things.
This means that Deluxe really wouldn't have to worry about the money for these characters as it's already been spent.
It was probably me- I've suggested this for a long time.
The successor to Ultiimate has only 3 options.
1- deluxe cut (everything and more, it cannot be the 'next game' strictly from marketing, but also because even a new game bringing everything back woul need to use all assetts and have little time). I think Ultimate taking the top dog fighting spot from Street Fighter 2 is actually on par with the fact that Ultimate will continually be released in this way (HA! Imagine a collection in the future with Smash 64, Melee, and Ultimate vers 4)
2- A complete reboot, with deeper mechanics, a full story mode (perhaps), and other huge changes
3- Spinoffs
Compare this to power creep in an anime- escalation cannot continually happen, eventually a story has to get iterative.
But to get back to the beginning, yes- obviously they knew about Sm6sh when Sm4sh DLC was happening, and there is no part of me that believes they negotiated CLOUD twice. Nintendo does do one thing consistently- play the long game. If the Switch Pro/Switch 2 has been in development for some time, which we know from developers having 4K models, then ... yeah.
Smash Ultimate DX (again, I think it will be called something in relation to the fans, but this is irrelevant; or perhaps Smash Ultimate Special & Smash Special Ultimate) will likely come out to sell the new system; that is a WINNING strategy. So... holiday 2023 or 2024.
I was hoping Smash Ultimate would be a platform title, and just get content for years. Instead, I am thinking the strategy is going to be to continually update the game with new iterations of Ultimate; the total DLC will likely never end up costing more than the base game itself, and this keeps the rounds of speculation tighter, with more excitement when it does come back each time. It also gives Sakurai a break.
________
On a slightly different note, I know the statements about getting third party characters are generally, "WOW, Nintendo must have paid a lot." I'm not entirely sure about this. It is perhaps even more valuable for third parties to get into Smash, than it is for Smash to get those characters. This may not be universally true, but it is definitely very relevant in most cases. Honestly, there could even be instances where it would make more sense for a third party to pay Nintendo to get their character in Smash (not that I believe this happens). Either way, just getting sales off the DLC might be all the third parties get. The publicity cannot be topped (which is the singular biggest reason I think we will get more from Smash- Smash news is FREE MARKETING and INTENSE HYPE in entertainment news, beyond just the gaming sphere).
With Ultimate, we have had dozens of companies and gaming industry leads come out to say they want their character in Smash. Back in Melee, this is all it took to get a character in the next game. While the size of Smash HAS grown, I can see this truly being a way to leverage third party relationships (which was rumored back to Sm4sh, dating back with Rayman). Not to mention, from a perspective of Sakurai- a lover of video games- there is no better opportunity to work with beloved icons than Smash; he could actually request any character in gaming and get a chance to be the developer.