Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[SharkLord]

Tinfoil hat conspiracy time.

Sakurai's POTD was this

pic.twitter.com/nT1H5QYvBX

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) January 11, 2021

And some people have been comparing it to this

Spoiler: Large image

View attachment 298894

So the theory is that Sakurai's making a DMC5 reference to allude to Dante getting in, like the POTD of the clocks alluding to Crash Bandicoot. No I don't believe this but I thought on bringing it up anyway.

We'll
Be
Right
Back

 

[Garteam]

Tinfoil hat conspiracy time.

Sakurai's POTD was this

pic.twitter.com/nT1H5QYvBX

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) January 11, 2021

And some people have been comparing it to this

Spoiler: Large image

View attachment 298894

So the theory is that Sakurai's making a DMC5 reference to allude to Dante getting in, like the POTD of the clocks alluding to Crash Bandicoot. No I don't believe this but I thought on bringing it up anyway.

This would be fine if Sakurai didn't shoot down this theory multiple times.

 

[SharkLord]

It would certainly feel awkward to many casual users, especially since there's a risk of accidental SD on most stages. Depending on how much the character moves it might be awkward for many pros, even if they generally have played the game so much they have a much easier time with precise movements.

I do think that the Neutral Special should not force movement either - it should be possible to stand and shoot. Now, there could be some other limitation (like low knockback growth or whatever) on the guns, especially since some guns like the Spread would be able to cover a lot of options.

Yeah, it might throw people off. Though, running and gunning seems to be a big part of Contra too. Maybe make it a mobile jab like with Mega Man so you can still fire while stationary, and maybe introduce a new mechanic where shielding while firing locks you in place so you can aim without needing to move?

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Correlation =\= Causation
Sure those Yellow and Purple chairs all the way back in the Belmont Direct match Galeem and Dharkon, but does that mean those were purposely put there despite sworn secrecy?
Sakurai and Nintendo have spent so long making these deals with all these other companies. They aren’t gonna post an obvious reference to these characters if they actively have them planned.

 

[JOJONumber691]

I feel as though if we had a new Smash Ballot made right now then Crash, Dante, Sora and either Master Chief or Doomguy would be the most requested.

I guarantee we would get an Undertale Character from a Second Ballot imo.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I'm gonna switch gears to another leak that's probably fake but has been piquing my interest the more it's gotten things right. It's that giant 4chan list that claims to know the list of 40 characters that were given to Sakurai. Is know Sakurai has stated multiple times (especially with Steve) that Nintendo has sent him personal fighter requests and not a general list.

Let's say the next 3 fighters are on that list and there's a chance that the post is actually correct (because with the amount of characters it guessed, it coul honestly not even be real and just guess by dumb luck), I was just thinking maybe it's another game of broken telephone and it's true there was a list among to decide a fighter from but it was only created by Nintendo executives for themselves which they'd decide from and then go to Sakurai and tell him to make the fighters they chose.

The only way I think that list is real though is if some or all of the next 3 fighters are some of the less obvious picks from that list rather than popular characters anyone could have guessed.

I think that the list is a bit fishy. There's a lot of choice that make sense, but some others are kind of weird. Especially Porky, even if Nintendo want more first party, I don't understand why they would recommend Porky to Sakurai. For me it seems that the list is just 40 discussed characters, and Porky is just there because he was discussed a bit for his lack of spirit. Assuming the list is true, I'm actually surprised that Arle wasn't even consider, especially because they consider SMT and Persona characters from Sega and Puyo puyo is pretty big and have a strong presence on Nintendo console.

Did Celeste release in Japan? Because I've been thinking we might get an indie character and Celeste feels like a real contender since it was a game of the year nominee.

Although i have no idea what Madeline can do besides wall jumps and air dashes

They did a Japan exclusive physical edition of the game, so I guess there was some success there. At the very least, yes it did release there. I'm not sure how much chance she really have, I think there's some more popular indie game that could be in before her. Right now I think people are sleeping on Cadence from Crypt of the Necrodancer. Some games had Nintendo exclusive content, but never a indie game push it as far as having a full crossover with one of Nintendo biggest ip with Cadence of Hyrule. Nintendo probably have a lot of respect to the Crypt of the necrodancer developpers to let them use their ip in that way. I couldn't find sales figures, but I'm pretty sure that both games did fairly well.

 

[SharkLord]

I guarantee we would get an Undertale Character from a Second Ballot imo.

Yeah, the ballot was around 2015, right? There had to be a large influx of SANS UNDERTALE joke ballots for %$#@s and giggles that Nintendo ignored because they weren't attainable.

Except SANS UNDERTALE is no longer unattainable

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Yeah, it might throw people off. Though, running and gunning seems to be a big part of Contra too. Maybe make it a mobile jab like with Mega Man so you can still fire while stationary, and maybe introduce a new mechanic where shielding while firing locks you in place so you can aim without needing to move?

So like, when firing, you can move, but pressing the shield button while firing makes you stop moving instead of actually shielding? That sounds like a pretty inelegant fix to the issue. So long as whatever shooting move counts as a Special Move (it could be like Min Min's Punch in that it can be done with Normal Move inputs) and you shield if you're holding the button and stop firing, I think it would feel really intuitive.

 

[cothero]

Tinfoil hat conspiracy time.

Sakurai's POTD was this

pic.twitter.com/nT1H5QYvBX

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) January 11, 2021

And some people have been comparing it to this

Spoiler: Large image

View attachment 298894

So the theory is that Sakurai's making a DMC5 reference to allude to Dante getting in, like the POTD of the clocks alluding to Crash Bandicoot. No I don't believe this but I thought on bringing it up anyway.

LOL, Sakurai likes to play with his fandom. Remember Arle Nadja and Golden Sun references?

 

[Guynamednelson]

There had to be a large influx of SANS UNDERTALE joke ballots

Not really. Undertale released near the end of the ballot, when most people already voted for whoever they wanted.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

Correlation =\= Causation
Sure those Yellow and Purple chairs all the way back in the Belmont Direct match Galeem and Dharkon, but does that mean those were purposely put there despite sworn secrecy?
Sakurai and Nintendo have spent so long making these deals with all these other companies. They aren’t gonna post an obvious reference to these characters if they actively have them planned.

Nah they mean Galeem will be a secret fighter 12 w/ a Dharkon echo fighter. The stage will be the final battle from World of Light where you just keep climbing that hellhole up and up trying to avoid their attacks.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

Undertale seems to have gone from a joke pick to an actual want for a lot of people, and I am all for it. Frisk or Flowey would be nice inclusions, or Sans if next game. A traveling stage going through the Ruins, Snowdin, Waterfall, Hot Land, and ending in the Judgment Hall would be really cool.
Though I would be entirely satisfied with just more music.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

Undertale seems to have gone from a joke pick to an actual want for a lot of people, and I am all for it. Frisk or Flowey would be nice inclusions, or Sans if next game. A traveling stage going through the Ruins, Snowdin, Waterfall, Hot Land, and ending in the Judgment Hall would be really cool.
Though I would be entirely satisfied with just more music.

Undertale totally did go from a joke pick didn't it. It feels weird to think back to pre-Ultimate days but I remember vaguely Sans was seen as a mostly gross meme popular game pick but somehow during Ultimate's lifespan I think the Undertale fandom started taking it back a bit and the game was appreciated a lot more instead of being disliked for being the hip new recent thing.

 

[SharkLord]

Undertale seems to have gone from a joke pick to an actual want for a lot of people, and I am all for it. Frisk or Flowey would be nice inclusions, or Sans if next game. A traveling stage going through the Ruins, Snowdin, Waterfall, Hot Land, and ending in the Judgment Hall would be really cool.
Though I would be entirely satisfied with just more music.

It's been said before but oftentimes demand is proportional to perceived likelihood. For example, Isaac's popularity surged in the base game because a lot of things seemed to point to him, but petered off after he got an Assist Trophy, which was widely regarded as a deconfirmation. Similarly, Geno's support died down around Smash 4 until his Mii Costume showed Sakurai still cared about him, after which his support surged until he got Mii'd again. And then there's all the characters to cropped up around Ultimate who were deemed impossible before, like Dante.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Tinfoil hat conspiracy time.

Sakurai's POTD was this

pic.twitter.com/nT1H5QYvBX

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) January 11, 2021

And some people have been comparing it to this

Spoiler: Large image

View attachment 298894

So the theory is that Sakurai's making a DMC5 reference to allude to Dante getting in, like the POTD of the clocks alluding to Crash Bandicoot. No I don't believe this but I thought on bringing it up anyway.

I think what we can take from a lot of the posts that Sakurai does like this is that, even if they ARE a reference towards a series (like this one may be), it doesn’t mean it’s a hint towards a character from there getting in.

 

[DarthEnderX]

PapaGenos really isn't helping either with his conspiracy theories about it.

Just because he doesn't believe in said theories doesn't mean no one will if he talks about them, so he's harming speculation without realizing it.

Cacomallow supporters are the Qanon of Smash speculation?

People always bring up Hayabusa as the last NES icon

FOOLS! All of them!

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I feel another NES character is likely, in which case it’d probably be Ryu Hayabusa. I see Contra being mentioned but Konami getting Bomber Man kinda makes me doubt that.

This one gets brought up as times now that you mention NES characters.

Billy & Jimmy Lee.

Thoughts on their chances?

Our two last missing costumes are a Capcom and a Namco costumes, something Chun-Li and Yuri could come with for example.

What I honestly expect.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

This one gets brought up as times now that you mention NES characters.

Billy & Jimmy Lee.

Thoughts on their chances?

What I honestly expect.

ArcSys had a River City spirit even but that's about it. I think it's something interesting to note that Nintendo has collaborated with them for Smash but just on something small. Could be a prelude for greater things to come or just what it is at face value?

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

This one gets brought up as times now that you mention NES characters.

Billy & Jimmy Lee.

Thoughts on their chances?

What I honestly expect.

Not entirely out of question, but they have competition with Arcsys other characters. They aren’t necessarily the most asked for icons either. Still, they have a chance.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

ArcSys had a River City spirit even but that's about it. I think it's something interesting to note that Nintendo has collaborated with them for Smash but just on something small. Could be a prelude for greater things to come or just what it is at face value?

I personally think it’s the latter. They wouldn’t spoil the company’s presence before they get a playable character if they do, IMO.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

It sucks that they didn't included a Big Boss costume for Snake in Ultimate like the team behind Project M did. MGS3 is one of the greatest games i've ever played, it's on my top 5 list. It's that important to me.

Although we play as Solid Snake in smash, his model has Big Boss's beard, which is quite strange since Solid Snake never used a full beard. To be honest, i was never a big fan of Solid Snake.

With their models so similar, it would be pretty dope for him to have a Big Boss suit as an alt. Such a wasted opportunity.

View attachment 298892

Big Boss could’ve been a super easy Echo as well, even with just slight visual differences. Little things like having a Law for his F-smash instead of an RPG, a Fulton instead of a cypher for up-b TNT instead of C4 which could be set off by damage, a straight missile instead of the Nikita, and even a claymore if they wanted a more visual indicator at the point they brought back the old down smash. It really is a missed opportunity.

Raiden on the other hand is just fully unique and could be crazy as hell. Looking at PSASBR is evidence enough for that. Metal Gear Rising was bat-****.

Edit: man I always forget how much I would love another MGS character in until someone else brings it up.

 

[SharkLord]

This one gets brought up as times now that you mention NES characters.

Billy & Jimmy Lee.

Thoughts on their chances?

The main thing I know about Double Dragon is the Bimmy and Jimmy typo

 

[DanganZilla5]

This one gets brought up as times now that you mention NES characters.

Billy & Jimmy Lee.

Thoughts on their chances?

What I honestly expect.

I think they have a decent chance. Double Dragon is certainly a notable beat em up and I'm sure it inspired future beat em ups. They are owned by Arc System Works who got some attention in speculation due to them getting spirits. I think they got a good chance with them still being relevant and appearing in a **** ton of stuff but not much points toward them too. Plus Sol Badguy is an obstacle for them.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

ArcSys had a River City spirit even but that's about it. I think it's something interesting to note that Nintendo has collaborated with them for Smash but just on something small. Could be a prelude for greater things to come or just what it is at face value?

Not entirely out of question, but they have competition with Arcsys other characters. They aren’t necessarily the most asked for icons either. Still, they have a chance.

That said they're characters I don't want exactly but imagine would still be fun additions especially how they would play.

Them and Sol Badguy.

 

[Eldrake]

It's also possible that the list could be true but that more names were added on between Pass 1 and Pass 2.

Speaking as someone who don't put any stock in monkey on a typewriter text posts like that, it amazes me that people who peddle that text post around never believe that most names could possibly be added on a hypothetical list, even going as far as to say that Min Min is an exception.

As for the POTD, probably just a coincidence. If Sakurai wanted to reference the DMC5 scene, I think he'd be using a sword fighter as a Vergil stand-in instead of Bowser.

 

[DarthEnderX]

This one gets brought up as times now that you mention NES characters.

Billy & Jimmy Lee.

Thoughts on their chances?

I think it's possible, but I'd be legit pissed if they got in over Kunio & Riki.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

Just an observation. Usually on the Smash Bros. website, every DLC character including Plant has a small link that says "Appears in:" followed by the game or general series they appear in. Byleth's link takes you to the Fire Emblem: Three Houses page and Plant's link takes you the general Mario page.

The only two exceptions so far are Banjo & Kazooie which obviously don't appear on the Switch and Joker. Now Persona 5: Strikers (or Scramble in Japan) is already out in Japan so I checked the Japanese website and there's no link to P5S that says Joker appears in that game. I also used the WayBack Machine to see Plant's page and they also didn't have the link they do now (which was updated once the Mario Anniversary happened and the Mario page was created). Maybe it's because P5S is a sequel to Persona 5 and the status of Persona on Nintendo is a bit of a weird one but it's confirmed they can and have updated the DLC fighter pages in the past.

I'm not really getting anywhere with this, just a neat observation. Makes me wonder if anything with Banjo & Kazooie will be done on the Switch that will make them want to advertise it on Banjo's Smash page hmMmmMmmMmmM!?

 

[clearandsweet]

Correlation =\= Causation
Sure those Yellow and Purple chairs all the way back in the Belmont Direct match Galeem and Dharkon, but does that mean those were purposely put there despite sworn secrecy?
Sakurai and Nintendo have spent so long making these deals with all these other companies. They aren’t gonna post an obvious reference to these characters if they actively have them planned.

I'm so effing sick of this being brought up as the counterfactual to this hint.

The next character show was Incineroar. From Pokemon Sun and Moon. Gold and Purple. The chairs WERE a hint, we just got the hint wrong. Sakurai has absolutely teased many characters well before their release. The barrel, bloody eyes, pac-man in the clouds, ect, ect.

 

[Mamboo07]

Really, Bill Rizer would be a great choice. People always bring up Hayabusa as the last NES icon, but what about Contra? It's a classic, iconic series with strong Nintendo ties and has zero representation. Right now I'm working on a paper dedicated to talking about Contra's history, its merits, and the positives and negatives that it has going for it in speculation.

Don't forget the Battletoads, as well Billy and Jimmy from Double Dragon, Excitebiker, Bub and Bob, Mach Rider and others too.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Just an observation. Usually on the Smash Bros. website, every DLC character including Plant has a small link that says "Appears in:" followed by the game or general series they appear in. Byleth's link takes you to the Fire Emblem: Three Houses page and Plant's link takes you the general Mario page.

The only two exceptions so far are Banjo & Kazooie which obviously don't appear on the Switch and Joker. Now Persona 5: Strikers (or Scramble in Japan) is already out in Japan so I checked the Japanese website and there's no link to P5S that says Joker appears in that game. I also used the WayBack Machine to see Plant's page and they also didn't have the link they do now (which was updated once the Mario Anniversary happened and the Mario page was created). Maybe it's because P5S is a sequel to Persona 5 and the status of Persona on Nintendo is a bit of a weird one but it's confirmed they can and have updated the DLC fighter pages in the past.

I'm not really getting anywhere with this, just a neat observation. Makes me wonder if anything with Banjo & Kazooie will be done on the Switch that will make them want to advertise it on Banjo's Smash page hmMmmMmmMmmM!?

Banjo's clearly advertising the Japanese Wii U Virtual Console smh

 

[DarthEnderX]

The next character show was Incineroar. From Pokemon Sun and Moon. Gold and Purple. The chairs WERE a hint, we just got the hint wrong.

Exactly!

Oh...no, wait...that's just confirmation bias.

 

[Eldrake]

Even if it turned out Sakurai hinted at Dante at some point, this wouldn't be the one because Bowser isn't even carrying a sword item.

 

[JOJONumber691]

Don't forget the Battletoads, as well Billy and Jimmy from Double Dragon, Excitebiker, Bub and Bob, Mach Rider and others too.


Chrono Trigger whe-Oh wait! Wrong Generation lol.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

Banjo's clearly advertising the Japanese Wii U Virtual Console smh

LOL! That was a funny moment. I'd really love to see Banjo-Kazooie get a proper treatment one day. They really got handed the short end of the stick from the buyout. Perfect Dark, a Rare property, is being revived right? Ah all I can do is hope.

 

[SharkLord]

Even if it turned out Sakurai hinted at Dante at some point, this wouldn't be the one because Bowser isn't even carrying a sword item.

I mean I suppose you could interpret Giga Bowser as a Devil Trigger if you stretch it enough

 

[clearandsweet]

Exactly!

Oh...no, wait...that's just confirmation bias.

Right, just like the barrel was confirmation bias, just like Sakurai mentioning Final Fantasy in Steve's presentation was confirmation bias, just like all the other hints that have made sense in retrospect are confirmation bias.

Just a long string of repeated confirmation biases that in no way were deliberate by Sakurai.

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

I'm gonna switch gears to another leak that's probably fake but has been piquing my interest the more it's gotten things right. It's that giant 4chan list that claims to know the list of 40 characters that were given to Sakurai. Is know Sakurai has stated multiple times (especially with Steve) that Nintendo has sent him personal fighter requests and not a general list.

Let's say the next 3 fighters are on that list and there's a chance that the post is actually correct (because with the amount of characters it guessed, it coul honestly not even be real and just guess by dumb luck), I was just thinking maybe it's another game of broken telephone and it's true there was a list among to decide a fighter from but it was only created by Nintendo executives for themselves which they'd decide from and then go to Sakurai and tell him to make the fighters they chose.

The only way I think that list is real though is if some or all of the next 3 fighters are some of the less obvious picks from that list rather than popular characters anyone could have guessed.

ASSUMING "The List" is real at all, this is my general belief for how this could fit together:

1. Nintendo executives or whatever team is involved, get together and go "We're gonna make Smash DLC fighters, what are some ideas you barnyard animals have?" and they hold a meeting.

2. In this meeting, Nintendo people toss around names, not terribly unlike what we do in speculation but in an official capacity. They lift names from several categories. "Which would promote new and upcoming games?" "Which would be fan favorites?" "Which third parties would we like to build relationships with?" etcetera etcetera etcetera. At this point, they haven't made any phone calls to anybody or any studio, they are literally just throwing names around the room and putting them on a whiteboard per se.

3. They wind up with around 40 names or so and then they go "OK OK you barnyard animals made quite a lot of noise. Good job, boiiiiiiiiiiiz meeting adjourned, now GET OUTTA HERE!"

4. The BIGGEST Nintendo executives take this list of names as far backstage as they can take it. At THIS POINT, we're talking producers, we're talking THE BIG BOYS! The people who "peer over their glasses" while asking Sakurai to add a character. It is at THIS point where the ACTUAL characters are chosen from the pool of 40 or so names, with a backup or so in case negotiations don't work (such as with the Sora situation). The guy who posted the 40 names on 4chan wouldn't have known which characters were ACTUALLY chosen because he's not part of this super secret group, he was just part of the group throwing names at the wall in parts 1 and 2.

5. Those Nintendo producers have ideas of their own, such as Min Min possibly being a specific request from the producer of ARMS. There could well be another character like this too, a "Nintendo producer said you HAVE to include THIS character, no ifs ands or buts", irrespective of whether they were on the list or not.

6. At last, the decisions are made, they meet with Sakurai, peer over their glasses, make some phone calls and meet for negotiations and all that stuff. After all is said and done, they never walk they never run, THEY'RE A WINNER! They make the characters and related content and then we argue about it.

 

[JOJONumber691]

ASSUMING "The List" is real at all, this is my general belief for how this could fit together:

1. Nintendo executives or whatever team is involved, get together and go "We're gonna make Smash DLC fighters, what are some ideas you barnyard animals have?" and they hold a meeting.

2. In this meeting, Nintendo people toss around names, not terribly unlike what we do in speculation but in an official capacity. They lift names from several categories. "Which would promote new and upcoming games?" "Which would be fan favorites?" "Which third parties would we like to build relationships with?" etcetera etcetera etcetera. At this point, they haven't made any phone calls to anybody or any studio, they are literally just throwing names around the room and putting them on a whiteboard per se.

3. They wind up with around 40 names or so and then they go "OK OK you barnyard animals made quite a lot of noise. Good job, boiiiiiiiiiiiz meeting adjourned, now GET OUTTA HERE!"

4. The BIGGEST Nintendo executives take this list of names as far backstage as they can take it. At THIS POINT, we're talking producers, we're talking THE BIG BOYS! The people who "peer over their glasses" while asking Sakurai to add a character. It is at THIS point where the ACTUAL characters are chosen from the pool of 40 or so names, with a backup or so in case negotiations don't work (such as with the Sora situation). The guy who posted the 40 names on 4chan wouldn't have known which characters were ACTUALLY chosen because he's not part of this super secret group, he was just part of the group throwing names at the wall in parts 1 and 2.

5. Those Nintendo producers have ideas of their own, such as Min Min possibly being a specific request from the producer of ARMS. There could well be another character like this too, a "Nintendo producer said you HAVE to include THIS character, no ifs ands or buts", irrespective of whether they were on the list or not.

6. At last, the decisions are made, they meet with Sakurai, peer over their glasses, make some phone calls and meet for negotiations and all that stuff. After all is said and done, they never walk they never run, THEY'RE A WINNER! They make the characters and related content and then we argue about it.

I couldn't have explained it any better myself.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

I'm so effing sick of this being brought up as the counterfactual to this hint.

The next character show was Incineroar. From Pokemon Sun and Moon. Gold and Purple. The chairs WERE a hint, we just got the hint wrong. Sakurai has absolutely teased many characters well before their release. The barrel, bloody eyes, pac-man in the clouds, ect, ect.

The next character shown was Isabelle, not Incineroar.
You could stretch so much into 2 colors. Skull Kid, Waluigi. Purple and gold symbolizes wealth and Royalty, does that mean they were actually teasing K Rool? And no, I refuse to believe Nintendo would show their hand with K Rool with a barrel. This is by all means just looking so far into things that something always comes out of it. Rayman in the ice come to mind? Rayman in the clouds come to mind? A broken clock is right twice a day. The only time it felt like there was a legitimate hint was with Sakurais mention of red eyes, and even that I see as reading too far into it.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

ASSUMING "The List" is real at all, this is my general belief for how this could fit together:

1. Nintendo executives or whatever team is involved, get together and go "We're gonna make Smash DLC fighters, what are some ideas you barnyard animals have?" and they hold a meeting.

2. In this meeting, Nintendo people toss around names, not terribly unlike what we do in speculation but in an official capacity. They lift names from several categories. "Which would promote new and upcoming games?" "Which would be fan favorites?" "Which third parties would we like to build relationships with?" etcetera etcetera etcetera. At this point, they haven't made any phone calls to anybody or any studio, they are literally just throwing names around the room and putting them on a whiteboard per se.

3. They wind up with around 40 names or so and then they go "OK OK you barnyard animals made quite a lot of noise. Good job, boiiiiiiiiiiiz meeting adjourned, now GET OUTTA HERE!"

4. The BIGGEST Nintendo executives take this list of names as far backstage as they can take it. At THIS POINT, we're talking producers, we're talking THE BIG BOYS! The people who "peer over their glasses" while asking Sakurai to add a character. It is at THIS point where the ACTUAL characters are chosen from the pool of 40 or so names, with a backup or so in case negotiations don't work (such as with the Sora situation). The guy who posted the 40 names on 4chan wouldn't have known which characters were ACTUALLY chosen because he's not part of this super secret group, he was just part of the group throwing names at the wall in parts 1 and 2.

5. Those Nintendo producers have ideas of their own, such as Min Min possibly being a specific request from the producer of ARMS. There could well be another character like this too, a "Nintendo producer said you HAVE to include THIS character, no ifs ands or buts", irrespective of whether they were on the list or not.

6. At last, the decisions are made, they meet with Sakurai, peer over their glasses, make some phone calls and meet for negotiations and all that stuff. After all is said and done, they never walk they never run, THEY'RE A WINNER! They make the characters and related content and then we argue about it.

It honestly makes more sense for Nintendo to be in charge of a list like this from a business perspective. I'm sure Sakurai understands business but he probably has some personal bias that might pick characters that wouldn't sell as well. It seems when he's working on the base game, there's more to Ultimate than just newcomers so he can partake in the character suggestions but the DLC is Nintendo's chance to make a lot of money and all they have to work off is just the character and the character has to be strong enough to sell the pass on their own.