Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[ChunkySlugger72]

Has the smash 4 ballot being used for Ultimate base game been confirmed anywhere? Or are we just assuming that because the characters that got in are the characters we think would have done well in the ballot?

While the article is mostly about Banjo-Kazooie, It also mentions Ridley and King K. Rool too.

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate creator Masahiro Sakurai says Banjo-Kazooie were 'incredibly requested' even after King K. Rool and Ridley made the cut

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

And we're back.

As far as future Smash Ballots, I'm curious if Nintendo would also put out more questions in it just to better gauge what sort of general content people would want in any additional sequels.

 

[DanganZilla5]

I'm bringing up my own theory that honestly might not mean much and I don't have a name for it yet. Basically, we had Banjo and Hero in Sephiroths trailer. That makes sense since we just got a Microsoft character and we got Sephiroth in this trailer. Now I have to wonder, does Nintendo have to pay money to third party companies to include their characters in CGI reveal trailers? Or trailers in general? If yes, then that is interesting because in this same trailer we saw Richter and Sonic. This would imply that we are getting another Konami and Sega character. as otherwise, why would they pay to have those two specific characters there? What's also interesting is that in Steve's trailer Cloud and Sonic appeared too. The only hole with this thinking is that Terry appeared in that trailer too and I'm not confident we are getting another SNK character. But I think this is notable because in all the other DLC reveal trailers, we did not have situations like this where third party characters are in a trailer for a character from a different third party company. But what do you all think?

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

I feel as though if we had a new Smash Ballot made right now then Crash, Dante, Sora and either Master Chief or Doomguy would be the most requested.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I feel as though if we had a new Smash Ballot made right now then Crash, Dante, Sora and either Master Chief or Doomguy would be the most requested.

Also Waluigi, Isaac, and Shadow.

I'm bringing up my own theory that honestly might not mean much and I don't have a name for it yet. Basically, we had Banjo and Hero in Sephiroths trailer. That makes sense since we just got a Microsoft character and we got Sephiroth in this trailer. Now I have to wonder, does Nintendo have to pay money to third party companies to include their characters in CGI reveal trailers? Or trailers in general? If yes, then that is interesting because in this same trailer we saw Richter and Sonic. This would imply that we are getting another Konami and Sega character. as otherwise, why would they pay to have those two specific characters there? What's also interesting is that in Steve's trailer Cloud and Sonic appeared too. The only hole with this thinking is that Terry appeared in that trailer too and I'm not confident we are getting another SNK character. But I think this is notable because in all the other DLC reveal trailers, we did not have situations like this where third party characters are in a trailer for a character from a different third party company. But what do you all think?

Konami and Sega character eh?

Puts on tinfoil hat

Arle or Eggman
Bill Rizer

 

[Rie Sonomura]

so Smashboards been down for several hours, wonder what that was all about

 

[Cutie Gwen]

We won't get another ballot until Smash fans stop pretending Nintendo lied about their intentions or whatnot when they clearly stated it'd influence Smash 4 and future titles, which it did. This gaslighting that they never made that clear is bull****

 

[cothero]

Guys, what if the CacoMallow leak was made by the smash team to piggyback people about leaks? People haven't moded

I'm bringing up my own theory that honestly might not mean much and I don't have a name for it yet. Basically, we had Banjo and Hero in Sephiroths trailer. That makes sense since we just got a Microsoft character and we got Sephiroth in this trailer. Now I have to wonder, does Nintendo have to pay money to third party companies to include their characters in CGI reveal trailers? Or trailers in general? If yes, then that is interesting because in this same trailer we saw Richter and Sonic. This would imply that we are getting another Konami and Sega character. as otherwise, why would they pay to have those two specific characters there? What's also interesting is that in Steve's trailer Cloud and Sonic appeared too. The only hole with this thinking is that Terry appeared in that trailer too and I'm not confident we are getting another SNK character. But I think this is notable because in all the other DLC reveal trailers, we did not have situations like this where third party characters are in a trailer for a character from a different third party company. But what do you all think?

That has already been discussed here. Personally, i don't think that mean much, but the lack of Capcom characters in every DLC trailer until now is quite strange, nonetheless.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Now I have to wonder, does Nintendo have to pay money to third party companies to include their characters in CGI reveal trailers? Or trailers in general?

I'm gonna assume it might depend on the third party. Some might be open to doing it for free since they already got the money from having that character added in the same Smash game as that trailer.

The only hole with this thinking is that Terry appeared in that trailer too and I'm not confident we are getting another SNK character.

SNK might be one of those companies open to do it for no extra cost. I mean, they gave the okay for 50 goddamn tracks and for Terry to bring not just Fatal Fury, but the entire company's intelluectual properties. That should have been a licensing nightmare due to the sheer amount of IPs involved, yet it seems to have gone very smoothly based on the amount of content Terry brought.

It's very obvious that SNK is just being very generous and passionate about the idea of being involved in Smash in some way, which is fitting since they have their own company-wide crossover with King of Fighters.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Me when CacoMallow is brought up.

 

[CannonStreak]

We still talking about Cacomallow? That thing should be dead by now. Why won’t some people stop believing in it?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Me when CacoMallow is brought up.

PapaGenos really isn't helping either with his conspiracy theories about it.

Just because he doesn't believe in said theories doesn't mean no one will if he talks about them, so he's harming speculation without realizing it.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

Guys, what if the CacoMallow leak was made by the smash team to piggyback people about leaks? People haven't moded

You know what, that would be funny. The Nintendo higher ups tell one of the modelling team guys to quickly throw people off. I can't say I know if that's a precedented thing but it's just funny to think about.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

You know what, that would be funny. The Nintendo higher ups tell one of the modelling team guys to quickly throw people off. I can't say I know if that's a precedented thing but it's just funny to think about.

Sakurai out here playing 5D chess with leakers Kappa

 

[Michael the Spikester]

PapaGenos really isn't helping either with his conspiracy theories about it.

Just because he doesn't believe in said theories doesn't mean no one will if he talks about them, so he's harming speculation without realizing it.

Even the Grinch Leak stayed dead and wasn't this persistent.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

You know what, that would be funny. The Nintendo higher ups tell one of the modelling team guys to quickly throw people off. I can't say I know if that's a precedented thing but it's just funny to think about.

It would be a complete waste of time and resources when they already have less of those for DLC than base game.

I think that's probably too risky of a move to do just for the sake of throwing off a very, very small fraction of a fraction of Ultimate's 20+ million playerbase.

I'd rather see them work to improve on the online than just troll less than a percent of a percent of their audience.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

We still talking about Cacomallow? That thing should be dead by now. Why won’t some people stop believing in it?

Most of the time its not even people who do believe in it or even Geno fans that bring it up here. Its a lot of message board equivalents to "Get a load of those CacoMallow believers huh?" which then gets people talking about it again, even when it wasn't even relevant to anything being talked about.

 

[CannonStreak]

Most of the time its not even people who do believe in it or even Geno fans that bring it up here. Its a lot of message board equivalents to "Get a load of those CacoMallow believers huh?" which then gets people talking about it again, even when it wasn't even relevant to anything being talked about.

Oh brother, it just never ends, huh?

 

[cothero]

You know what, that would be funny. The Nintendo higher ups tell one of the modelling team guys to quickly throw people off. I can't say I know if that's a precedented thing but it's just funny to think about.

Sorry, i was going to finish that sentence, but i completely forgot to. The thing is, we now know that moders can add hats to the game (Geno Deluxe costume), but that wasn't possible back in 2019 when the CacoMallow leak has surfaced.

It was most likely done by moders, but it would be funny if the team behind smash made and leaked that on purpose to troll smash fans. LOL.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Oh brother, it just never ends, huh?

Being fair, the stubborness of Geno fans didn't help for that one.

They were so strict on what was "required" in order to prove it was moddable that it was frankly ridiculous while also completely ignoring that NDAs exist.

The latter should've been a dead giveaway that it was fake, especially after it wasn't taken down when it got traction, only to last for over a goddamn year before being confirmed fake by Sephiroth's Mii wave having Geno but no Mallow.

 

[CannonStreak]

Being fair, the stubborness of Geno fans didn't help for that one.

They were so strict on what was "required" in order to prove it was moddable that it was frankly ridiculous while also completely ignoring that NDAs exist.

The latter should've been a dead giveaway that it was fake, especially after it wasn't taken down when it got traction, only to last for over a goddamn year before being confirmed fake by Sephiroth's Mii wave having Geno but no Mallow.

I understand what you mean. Apparently, some people just never learn.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

I'm gonna switch gears to another leak that's probably fake but has been piquing my interest the more it's gotten things right. It's that giant 4chan list that claims to know the list of 40 characters that were given to Sakurai. Is know Sakurai has stated multiple times (especially with Steve) that Nintendo has sent him personal fighter requests and not a general list.

Let's say the next 3 fighters are on that list and there's a chance that the post is actually correct (because with the amount of characters it guessed, it coul honestly not even be real and just guess by dumb luck), I was just thinking maybe it's another game of broken telephone and it's true there was a list among to decide a fighter from but it was only created by Nintendo executives for themselves which they'd decide from and then go to Sakurai and tell him to make the fighters they chose.

The only way I think that list is real though is if some or all of the next 3 fighters are some of the less obvious picks from that list rather than popular characters anyone could have guessed.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I'm gonna switch gears to another leak that's probably fake but has been piquing my interest the more it's gotten things right. It's that giant 4chan list that claims to know the list of 40 characters that were given to Sakurai. Is know Sakurai has stated multiple times (especially with Steve) that Nintendo has sent him personal fighter requests and not a general list.

Let's say the next 3 fighters are on that list and there's a chance that the post is actually correct (because with the amount of characters it guessed, it coul honestly not even be real and just guess by dumb luck), I was just thinking maybe it's another game of broken telephone and it's true there was a list among to decide a fighter from but it was only created by Nintendo executives for themselves which they'd decide from and then go to Sakurai and tell him to make the fighters they chose.

The only way I think that list is real though is if some or all of the next 3 fighters are some of the less obvious picks from that list rather than popular characters anyone could have guessed.

It's also possible that the list could be true but that more names were added on between Pass 1 and Pass 2.

Assuming it is real, we already have a first-party example of that with Min Min. Any Bamco rep also could slip by and ignore the list entirely due to the company directly helping Sakurai with Ultimate, making negotiations easier to set up.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Really, Bill Rizer would be a great choice. People always bring up Hayabusa as the last NES icon, but what about Contra? It's a classic, iconic series with strong Nintendo ties and has zero representation. Right now I'm working on a paper dedicated to talking about Contra's history, its merits, and the positives and negatives that it has going for it in speculation.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Really, Bill Rizer would be a great choice. People always bring up Hayabusa as the last NES icon, but what about Contra? It's a classic, iconic series with strong Nintendo ties and has zero representation.

I feel like you’ve brought this up before

I wouldn’t really know or care either way as I don’t really care about either character and don’t believe so much in filling arbitrary “quotas” like NES stars or something

again tho that’s prolly cause I grew up in the SNES/N64/PS1 and GC/PS2 era so I prefer those generations more for the most part

 

[cothero]

I'm gonna switch gears to another leak that's probably fake but has been piquing my interest the more it's gotten things right. It's that giant 4chan list that claims to know the list of 40 characters that were given to Sakurai. Is know Sakurai has stated multiple times (especially with Steve) that Nintendo has sent him personal fighter requests and not a general list.

Let's say the next 3 fighters are on that list and there's a chance that the post is actually correct (because with the amount of characters it guessed, it coul honestly not even be real and just guess by dumb luck), I was just thinking maybe it's another game of broken telephone and it's true there was a list among to decide a fighter from but it was only created by Nintendo executives for themselves which they'd decide from and then go to Sakurai and tell him to make the fighters they chose.

The only way I think that list is real though is if some or all of the next 3 fighters are some of the less obvious picks from that list rather than popular characters anyone could have guessed.

That's the only leak by now i'm pretty neutral about. For me, the strangest thing about that leak is that Terry Bogard is in. I mean, c'mon, anyone who would try to make a fake leak would add obvious picks like Dante, and he isn't on that list. Terry is a pretty obscure character to be on a fake leak before he was even announced, if you think about it.

Also, as PapaGenos said himself, that 40 names leak also includes characters from that japanese "leak" posted by Ayumi Tachibana here on SmashBoards, which says that Chun-Li was replaced by Ken, Sephiroth was in and and Yuri/Lloyd were also in development. That's something interesting to keep in mind.

That "leak" about Min Min/Ninjara, Steve, Sephiroth, Ray Man, Ryu Hayabusa and Doomguy isn't really a leak but a prediction post, so i wouldn't count that on.

 

[DanganZilla5]

I feel like you’ve brought this up before

I wouldn’t really know or care either way as I don’t really care about either character and don’t believe so much in filling arbitrary “quotas” like NES stars or something

again tho that’s prolly cause I grew up in the SNES/N64/PS1 and GC/PS2 era so I prefer those generations more for the most part

I have before, but not for a while. And I still see people sleeping on the series. Also, it's not about filling in arbitrary quotas, it's about looking at the series' merits. I do keep bringing it up because I want to convince people that Bill Rizer has a good chance. You didn't see it since I edited it in my comment until a couple minutes ago, but right now I'm working on a paper arguing in Contra's favor.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

That's the only leak by now i'm pretty neutral about. For me, the strangest thing about that leak is that Terry Bogard is in. I mean, c'mon, anyone who would try to make a fake leak would add obvious picks like Dante, and he isn't on that list. Terry is a pretty obscure character to be on a fake leak before he was even announced, if you think about it.

Also, as PapaGenos said himself, that 40 names leaks also included characters from that japanese "leak" posted by Ayumi Tachibana here on SmashBoards, which says that Chun-Li was replaced by Ken, Sephiroth was in and and Yuri/Lloyd were also in development. That's something interesting to keep in mind.

That "leak" about Min Min/Ninjara, Steve, Sephiroth, Ray Man, Ryu Hayabusa and Doomguy isn't really a leak but a prediction post, so i wouldn't count that on.

I thought Rayman/Doom Slayer/Hayabusa/Ninjara was more a wishlist?

I guess the only one that could still happen is the KOS-MOS/Crash/Reimu one and Crash wouldn’t be a solid point in its favor just like Sephiroth wasn’t. Reimu or KOS-MOS, however...

and if THAT’S fake, the Falcom and League ones are worth considering until proven otherwise (I.e. pass ends and no Hollow Knight costume for the latter)

I have before, but not for a while. And I still see people sleeping on the series. Also, it's not about filling in arbitrary quotas, it's about looking at the series' merits. I do keep bringing it up because I want to convince people that Bill Rizer has a good chance. You didn't see it since I edited it in my comment until a couple minutes ago, but right now I'm working on a paper arguing in Contra's favor.

Do link the paper when it’s done. I’d like to read it

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I have before, but not for a while. And I still see people sleeping on the series. Also, it's not about filling in arbitrary quotas, it's about looking at the series' merits. I do keep bringing it up because I want to convince people that Bill Rizer has a good chance. You didn't see it since I edited it in my comment until a couple minutes ago, but right now I'm working on a paper arguing in Contra's favor.

All tilts are just Bill shooting in a different direction, including diagonal tilts

I joke, but that actually would be a pretty unique mechanic and reference Contra's gameplay too

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Konami is an interesting company in that it both has a lot of options and at the same doesn't.

-Bomberman's essentially got his upgrade via the Mii Costume
-In terms of notable characters Metal Gear basically has Raiden left (with Big Boss likely considered too similar to Snake).
-Silent Hill is possible though it may simply be too dark given its content, with Pyramid Head would feel pretty morbid as a Smash character.
-Old stuff like Sparkster is fairly obscure among the a lot of the audience.
-Suikoden has potential but isn't in big demand
-Contra could work though the gun focus could mean some necessary reworking

Another Castlevania rep would not feel surprising especially given the later GBA/DS games getting more of a focus via the character.

 

[Adrianette Bromide]

It's also possible that the list could be true but that more names were added on between Pass 1 and Pass 2.

Assuming it is real, we already have a first-party example of that with Min Min.

That list, the Chun-Leak and all the smaller details adding up makes me start to genuinely think that maybe 2 of the next 3 fighters might honestly be Chun-Li and either Lloyd or Yuri.

Our two last missing costumes are a Capcom and a Namco costumes, something Chun-Li and Yuri could come with for example.

The list mentions several Square names which adds up with the several Square names that were heard (and Geno not being on it makes sense as the 5chan leaks talks about his character specifically being a confusing character for their owners to handle.)

There is a lack of a lot of Street Fighter content that isn't from 2 as well as a Chun-Li theme remix which you would think would be one of the next songs to be remixed for SF because she's such an iconic character. The Namco roulette also even manages to include a Heihachi sprite but no Lloyd sprite despite both characters being Namco costumes in the last game (a bit of a stretch).

If this is true that they were characters put on the backburner for DLC, I think that makes sense. You'd get more money split from DLC sales whereas you couldn't really gauge a solid profit from your character's inclusion in the base game hence why there was only one third-party in the launch version of the game.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

All tilts are just Bill shooting in a different direction, including diagonal tilts

I joke, but that actually would be a pretty unique mechanic and reference Contra's gameplay too

I don't think they'd do it quite like that just because 8-directional aiming + forced movement while shooting just feels bad. Perhaps they'd wrap it up into a Neutral Special instead?

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

There is a lack of a lot of Street Fighter content that isn't from 2

That argument kinda tires me. Yeah, there's not a lot of stuff from games other than II, but you don't see people complaining about the fact that Fatal Fury has very little content due to most of the spirits and songs being from other SNK IPs, do you?

Or the lack of a Rock Howard spirit despite the fact that he's a very popular character in the SNK fanbase, to the point where people outright popped off when he was announced as DLC for KoF XIV. Or Nakoruru not having a cameo on the KoF stage despite being playable in a KoF game and arguably the second company mascot alongside Terry.

And those are just examples from Terry, showing that even though he brought a lot, there's still some glaring omissions. I could also talk about how Persona 5 could've had more songs, or Dragon Quest only having MIDIs, or Sonic not having any remixes beyond that one Angel Island remix from Brawl. And so on...

Third-parties will sometimes have weird things about their representation, it's not exclusive to Street Fighter. So why aren't other series getting focus?

Heck, not a lot of people speculated a Final Fantasy character despite the franchise's absolutely abysmal content because of the self-assumed notion that "Square stingy", so people zeroing their sights on Street Fighter kinda annoys me because it really feels like they only think about it because a stranger of 5chan mentionned the series.

I literally never saw that argument of SF having lacking content until Sephiroth was revealed, and I doubt the timing of this argument showing up is a coincidence, because the Chun-Leak got traction some time after that.

as well as a Chun-Li theme remix which you would think would be one of the next songs to be remixed for SF because she's such an iconic character.

They did Guile's Theme tho, which is such a meme move that I don't even mind no Chun-Li remix lmao

The Namco roulette also even manages to include a Heihachi sprite but no Lloyd sprite despite both characters being Namco costumes in the last game (a bit of a stretch).

A stretch indeed because I could use that same argument for Nightmare, a character who hasn't popped up in those leaks.

 

[SpecterFlower]

yayy it's back!!!

 

[cothero]

-In terms of notable characters Metal Gear basically has Raiden left (with Big Boss likely considered too similar to Snake).

It sucks that they didn't included a Big Boss costume for Snake in Ultimate like the team behind Project M did. MGS3 is one of the greatest games i've ever played, it's on my top 5 list. It's that important to me.

Although we play as Solid Snake in smash, his model has Big Boss's beard, which is quite strange since Solid Snake never used a full beard. To be honest, i was never a big fan of Solid Snake.

With their models so similar, it would be pretty dope for him to have a Big Boss suit as an alt. Such a wasted opportunity.

 

[SharkLord]

Did Celeste release in Japan? Because I've been thinking we might get an indie character and Celeste feels like a real contender since it was a game of the year nominee.

Although i have no idea what Madeline can do besides wall jumps and air dashes

I think Madeline would be more like Villager in that she'd make use of her game's setpieces to fill in the gaps. Flying berries, springboards, spikes, etc. She'd basically be Celeste itself in Smash.

Also there's Badeline, who starts out as an enemy but makes up with her at the end. Since she's a reflection of Madeline's struggles, I was thinking we could pretty much make her into Madeline's [ENEMY STAND], where Madeline herself only has a couple attacks and Badeline does most of the punching.

 

[ROBnWatch]

Did Celeste release in Japan? Because I've been thinking we might get an indie character and Celeste feels like a real contender since it was a game of the year nominee.

Although i have no idea what Madeline can do besides wall jumps and air dashes

I think Madeline would be more like Villager in that she'd make use of her game's setpieces to fill in the gaps. Flying berries, springboards, spikes, etc. She'd basically be Celeste itself in Smash.

Also there's Badeline, who starts out as an enemy but makes up with her at the end. Since she's a reflection of Madeline's struggles, I was thinking we could pretty much make her into Madeline's [ENEMY STAND], where Madeline herself only has a couple attacks and Badeline does most of the punching.

There’s this video that made a moveset for her. Maybe not the best, but Celeste is a game that does a lot with a little, so making a fully fleshed out moveset is a bit of a challenge.

The video does include some spoilers for the game though, so I recommend finishing the game first.

 

[Þe 1 → Way]

I feel another NES character is likely, in which case it’d probably be Ryu Hayabusa. I see Contra being mentioned but Konami getting Bomber Man kinda makes me doubt that.

 

[SKX31]

All tilts are just Bill shooting in a different direction, including diagonal tilts

I joke, but that actually would be a pretty unique mechanic and reference Contra's gameplay too

I don't think they'd do it quite like that just because 8-directional aiming + forced movement while shooting just feels bad. Perhaps they'd wrap it up into a Neutral Special instead?

It would certainly feel awkward to many casual users, especially since there's a risk of accidental SD on most stages. Depending on how much the character moves it might be awkward for many pros, even if they generally have played the game so much they have a much easier time with precise movements.

I do think that the Neutral Special should not force movement either - it should be possible to stand and shoot. Now, there could be some other limitation (like low knockback growth or whatever) on the guns, especially since some guns like the Spread would be able to cover a lot of options.

Also, on a completely different note:

Tencent has shipped 1 million units of the Nintendo Switch (China ver.) in Mainland China as of the end of 2020.

The console officially launched in China on Dec 10, 2019. Good news for Nintendo.

I was quoted in this @Reuters article on the topic:https://t.co/dVuj7zZGuS

— Daniel Ahmad (@ZhugeEX) January 11, 2021

The official release of Ring Fit there did a lot to improve the Switch's standing. The total - including Chinese people importing JP / NA / other Switches via China's grey market - is estimated by Zhuge and his firm Niko Partners to be ca. 4 million. Not as large as say Japan's Switch playerbase, but it's a major increase from past Nintendo consoles - the GBA apparently managed an official 500K there, but that's the highest it's gotten until now.

Edit: While we have to see if regions that are growth targets for Nintendo impact Smash negotiations or not (I can't fully commit to that idea since there's no precedent), I feel this is worth noting regardless partly since Nintendo's been trying to gain an official foothold there for a while.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Tinfoil hat conspiracy time.

Sakurai's POTD was this

pic.twitter.com/nT1H5QYvBX

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) January 11, 2021

And some people have been comparing it to this

Spoiler: Large image

So the theory is that Sakurai's making a DMC5 reference to allude to Dante getting in, like the POTD of the clocks alluding to Crash Bandicoot. No I don't believe this but I thought on bringing it up anyway.