Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Theguy123]

Frankly, even though Layton sells more, I'd argue Ace Attorney is the bigger IP purely because of how Capcom runs it.

Capcom's made a movie and anime out of the IP and has managed to make the series grow with well timed and paced releases and collections.

Meanwhile Level-5, bizarrely aren't doing a ton with Layton and I believe the franchise is shrinking in size. I don't really hear people talk about new Layton stuff anymore and I used to quite a bit.

It's a shame too. The Layton formula is unlike any out there.

i wouldn’t say it’s shrinking, more or less that level 5 are in a bad situation. They’re starting to do well but most of the fanbase for the Layton franchise is outside of Japan.

The 2nd trilogy was awfully marketed and still made over a million in each game apart from azran legacy. Games were releasing years before in certain countries rather than at the same time which was bad marketing.

it helps that the fanbase is quite big though in Japan still. The Layton anime currently on over there was a big success apparently.

Layton 8 is rumoured to be in development but nothing concrete, they’ve been marketing the deluxe version of Layton 7 over there quite a lot recently probably due to the anime’s success. If they could open up to the rest of the world again then that would be great for the franchise.

the best way they could get back into the rest of the world would be one by one releasing the original 3 games on the switch separately with some decent marketing. Could make 4/5 mill and maybe more with each of the games.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Hold up

“Spackle” theory?

what is it this time?

 

[Gengar84]

I wish Sony and Level 5 never abandoned Dark Cloud and Rogue Galaxy. I loved those games and they were the only games from Level 5 I ever played. It’s sad that Sony seems to be distancing themselves from Japanese games in general these days so we may never get another game from those series.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

I wish Sony and Level 5 never abandoned Dark Cloud and Rogue Galaxy. I loved those games and they were the only games from Level 5 I ever played. It’s sad that Sony seems to be distancing themselves from Japanese games in general these days so we may never get another game from those series.

If they abandoned them, then I'm assuming the games flopped hard.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Hold up

“Spackle” theory?

what is it this time?

Spackle Theory is just Second Chances theory but more aimed towards the idea that DLC is chosen to fix up weak spots of the roster, like Sepiroth to fix up FF7 content and Aegis and Min Min were added to make the roster age better.

 

[CommanderZaktan]

I could write a whole giga post about it, but this video is a good summary about most of my points about what this Pass has been and how it'll play out:

Basically a lot of people forget that decisions are made really far in advance regarding Smash Ultimate and people don't realize that what people should be looking at is what was expectations back on 2018 and earlier. Most fan supports from Ultimate only picked up strong steam in 2019 and later, both inside and outside of the community.

And that's why I believe that Rayman might be the final character from this video. Rayman, including Globox and Barbara, were trophies in Smash 4 modeled by Ubisoft themselves. In Ultimate however, Rayman is the only spirit from his series, excluding the Rabbids from Mario + Rabbids.

 

[DarthEnderX]

I would argue a SMT is the most likely character for the final one

You certainly COULD argue that.

...I dunno why you would. But you could do it.

 

[Jondolio]

But in all seriousness, if the last fighter is not a Pokémon I'll record my cover of The DK rap and post it online. I'm very confident in that prediction.

Hold up

“Spackle” theory?

what is it this time?

People seem to have noticed a pattern where each newcomer in Fighters Pass 2 fills up holes in the game.
Min Min and Pythra = Characters that didn't make it in time for the base game
Steve and Kazuya = Characters Nintendo/Sakurai wanted to put in Smash since Sm4sh but couldn't for one reason or another
Sephiroth - Brings actual Final Fantasy 7 content with him
I personally can't help but think this is all just a big coincidence.
Edit: 'd

 

[DarthEnderX]

People seem to have noticed a pattern where each newcomer in Fighters Pass 2 fills up holes in the game.
Min Min and Pythra = Characters that didn't make it in time for the base game
Steve and Kazuya = Characters Nintendo/Sakurai wanted to put in Smash since Sm4sh but couldn't for one reason or another
Sephiroth - Brings actual Final Fantasy 7 content with him
I personally can't help but think this is all just a big coincidence.

So...5 characters, 3 different reasons. Seems like a fancy way of saying there's not a pattern at all...

 

[MattX20]

Hold up

“Spackle” theory?

what is it this time?

It comes from this video specifically https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auJkLVRymvs

 

[Jondolio]

So...5 characters, 3 different reasons. Seems like a fancy way of saying there's not a pattern at all...

I don't know, I can see it.
I just don't think it necessarily means anything.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

I'm conflicted on that. On one hand, we've talked about Heihachi plenty before the costume's return, and, well, he has a costume. On the other fighter representation is more attractive than anyone else.

Still, that's only...2/5 of FP2 that can very definitely attract a new audience. 1 wasn't really better in that regard considering it had Banjo and Byleth take 2 of its slots.

I think that games like XC2 definitely have the potential to bring in a new audience as XC2 itself managed to bring a new audience to Xenoblade and therefore can contribute to reaching out to newer people. The same could go for really Three Houses or even FF7 with the added context of new players from the Remake. There's a bit more fluidity to how fan bases interact and someone who might not have cared for past inclusions in say Fire Emblem may have loved Three Houses and became far more attached in a way they weren't previously to FE characters.

Another thing the Smash fandom could stand to really recognize is just how incredibly fluid most wanted characters and potential crossovers fan communities are. That sort of thing is always changing and different characters contribute in different ways.

 

[Jondolio]

You know, Byleth's reveal made me put 3H higher on my priority list of games to play. 3 months later, I played it for... a while. It might be my most played Switch game, lol.

 

[RileyXY1]

And that's why I believe that Rayman might be the final character from this video. Rayman, including Globox and Barbara, were trophies in Smash 4 modeled by Ubisoft themselves. In Ultimate however, Rayman is the only spirit from his series, excluding the Rabbids from Mario + Rabbids.

Rayman is a flop in Japan so he's unlikely.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

And that's why I believe that Rayman might be the final character from this video. Rayman, including Globox and Barbara, were trophies in Smash 4 modeled by Ubisoft themselves. In Ultimate however, Rayman is the only spirit from his series, excluding the Rabbids from Mario + Rabbids.

Plus Rayman wears purple. Yes Purple Theory got debunked but given the following matching colors of the fighters on the Smash site I don't see it being any other color tbh. Even Sephiroth is a greyish green.

Rayman also fits second chance/fix theory.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Ray-Man feels like the new Lloyd where it’s just weird that he isn’t a Mii Costume. I can see Pack 11’s Mii Wave being another “Here’s some of the most popular characters” wave that includes Ray-Man, but otherwise I’m chalking his absence up to playability.

 

[Jondolio]

Ray-Man feels like the new Lloyd where it’s just weird that he isn’t a Mii Costume. I can see Pack 11’s Mii Wave being another “Here’s some of the most popular characters” wave that includes Ray-Man, but otherwise I’m chalking his absence up to playability.

I mean, how would you make a costume based on a character who doesn't have limbs? For the record, I'd really like to see Rayman in the game, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's not a mii costume because he just can't work as one.

 

[FreeFox]

I've found a number of similarities between Ultimate's production and Melee's production and results. It's actually quite fascinating, and it strengthens my claim massively as Melee was also incredibly rushed.

It could have been EVEN BETTER!

I just want to address this. Whether the game was rushed or wasnt, whether the game could have been better, whether things could have been different doesnt matter that much. Because the hypothetical scenario you are painting doesnt truly exist. We got the game that we got and we have to see it for what it is rather than what it could have been. Worrying about the past and wishing to be able to change it is not healthy because we are who we are thanks to the past.

Life is full of circumstances out of our control and we just have to live with it. Being stuck in the past and thinking about all this "awesome past possibilities" traps you in a stasis where you cant move forward from the regrets/disappointments created by it. The past is better used to learn about ourselves and our reality and how to strive for a better future. I think it will benefit you to just take what you can get from this game and just judge it for what it is and what it has done for the series. Afterall, the point of playing videogames is to have fun.

With this, I am not saying you cant complain for disliking something. Just my advice to not let past possibilities kept from seeing what is there. This path clouds judgment and can easily lead to madness. Its fine to speculate on possibilities as long as they dont become arguments against the reality we got because reality is never going to be able to match all our expectations, no matter what we do.

Nah, it was pretty clear that would a dumb thing to do. The smartest thing is to gut buy what your interested in and not buy a blind pack

I always buy the DLC blindly to have all characters together for when my friends come around the house so I think it would be better to say that each to ther own.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I mean, how would you make a costume based on a character who doesn't have limbs? For the record, I'd really like to see Rayman in the game, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's not a mii costume because he just can't work as one.

I’d say Creeper or Pig Brawler costumes show that it’s not impossible to add costumes with unconventional limb structures. To a lesser extent, isn’t the Akira costume completely pixelated?

 

[MrJudd]

I’d say Creeper or Pig Brawler costumes show that it’s not impossible to add costumes with unconventional limb structures. To a lesser extent, isn’t the Akira costume completely pixelated?

The Akira costume is low poly, to look more closer to the 3D models from the original games.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

The Akira costume is low poly, to look more closer to the 3D models from the original games.

Brainfart with the exact term aside, that still works with my point.

 

[Curious Villager]

Frankly, even though Layton sells more, I'd argue Ace Attorney is the bigger IP purely because of how Capcom runs it.

Capcom's made a movie and anime out of the IP and has managed to make the series grow with well timed and paced releases and collections.

Meanwhile Level-5, bizarrely aren't doing a ton with Layton and I believe the franchise is shrinking in size. I don't really hear people talk about new Layton stuff anymore and I used to quite a bit.

It's a shame too. The Layton formula is unlike any out there.

I'd say the fanbase is more in a lull right now more than anything, since they don't really have much reason to as L5 currently hasn't done much with the series outside of some HD ports they barely marketed, it will probably revitalize itself again if they announce a brand new title for the series.
Which is how most dormant franchises and their fanbases get revitalized and breathed new life into, being fair.

That said, from what I've heard, the anime has done pretty well in Japan to the point L5 decided to give it a second run and even include the voice cast into the Switch port.

Personally, I'm giving the series until the end of next year to see what its current status is, since that's when the series 15th anniversary is and I doubt that L5 would just up and ignore such a milestone of one their major flagship IP's without much fanfare...
And with rumours floating around of Layton 8 being in development plus a rerun of the anime and new official merch coming out of nowhere, hopefully its a good sign of things to come..

 

[Guynamednelson]

I think that games like XC2 definitely have the potential to bring in a new audience as XC2 itself managed to bring a new audience to Xenoblade and therefore can contribute to reaching out to newer people. The same could go for really Three Houses or even FF7 with the added context of new players from the Remake. There's a bit more fluidity to how fan bases interact and someone who might not have cared for past inclusions in say Fire Emblem may have loved Three Houses and became far more attached in a way they weren't previously to FE characters.

Another thing the Smash fandom could stand to really recognize is just how incredibly fluid most wanted characters and potential crossovers fan communities are. That sort of thing is always changing and different characters contribute in different ways.

Still it's not as sellout-y as speculation based on bringing in new audiences is. XC2 bringing in a new audience to Xenoblade is partially due to Shulk in Smash for one thing. It's not even a game that's sold over 2 million.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

I feel like Rayman would be the Ubisoft Character Ubisoft themselves would want
While Nintendo would want someone bigger like Ezio

Just a gut feeling. Also, I feel like the fact that Ezio's games are big af worldwide and the fact that he's the most popular AC Assassin in Japan does boost him up a bit.

 

[Jondolio]

I feel like Rayman would be the Ubisoft Character Ubisoft themselves would want

I remember reading something about a Ubisoft exec saying making new Rayman games isn't a priority for them, so I doubt it.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

I feel like Rayman would be the Ubisoft Character Ubisoft themselves would want
While Nintendo would want someone bigger like Ezio

Just a gut feeling. Also, I feel like the fact that Ezio's games are big af worldwide and the fact that he's the most popular AC Assassin in Japan does boost him up a bit.

Wouldn’t surprise me if the Mii Costume negotiations for Byleth were also a starting convo with Ubisoft about Fighters Pass 2.

 

[Jondolio]

Rayman as the final character would really excite me, and it does seem weird that Ubisoft is the only AAA company with multiple spirits in the base game and two DLC Mii costumes but no character.
...but I still think it's gonna be a Pokémon.

 

[osby]

Brainfart with the exact term aside, that still works with my point.

Not sure if I disagree. Unconventional limbs and straight-up lack of limbs are two different things.

 

[MrMcNuts]

I’d say Creeper or Pig Brawler costumes show that it’s not impossible to add costumes with unconventional limb structures. To a lesser extent, isn’t the Akira costume completely pixelated?

If Rayman isn't the final fighter, I feel like part of the reason he wasn't even a mii either depsite being a huge request like some other miis is that the Mii brawler has some knee attacks (from what I've been told I don't play the miis) so it would be hard to translate that when he only has feet. Even the Minecraft mii's feet sections stretch up into knees somewhat

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Remember the Ubisoft chat bot that used to mention Rayman for Smash but one day stopped?

not that I think that means anything one way or the other, but it’s something to think about ig

 

[FreeFox]

Remember the Ubisoft chat bot that used to mention Rayman for Smash but one day stopped?

not that I think that means anything one way or the other, but it’s something to think about ig

When did this happen? Any extra details would be greatly appreciated.

 

[CommanderZaktan]

Here's other fighters that could fit the second chance theory aside from Rayman.
Ryu Hayabusa since Yuri from Fatal Frame is an assist trophy and have post game spirits like Age of Calamity and Sophia.
Decidueye who was going to be in Smash, but Sakurai chose Incineroar instead. Plus it could bring Legends: Arceus spirit board since Rowlet is one of the 3 starters to choose from.
Dr Eggman or any Sonic character aside from Knuckles and Shadow since Sonic really needs a rep from his series.
Porky/Pokey since he was completely absent from Earthbound's spirit list

I could bring up Monther Hunter, but their chances are dead since not only they bring back the mii costumes from 4 but also had a spirit event from Rise.

Antone else I'm missing aside from assists and post game spirits?

 

[Jondolio]

Here's other fighters that could fit the second chance theory aside from Rayman.
Ryu Hayabusa since Yuri from Fatal Frame is an assist trophy and have post game spirits like Age of Calamity and Sophia.
Decidueye who was going to be in Smash, but Sakurai chose Incineroar instead. Plus it could bring Legends: Arceus spirit board since Rowlet is one of the 3 starters to choose from.
Dr Eggman or any Sonic character aside from Knuckles and Shadow since Sonic really needs a rep from his series.

I could bring up Monther Hunter, but their chances are dead since not only they bring back the mii costumes from 4 but also had a spirit event from Rise.

Yuri is co-owned by Nintendo if I'm not mistaken, and I don't think "reps" are a guiding principal of Sakurai when adding new characters. Sonic has plenty of representation in the spirits and songs department unlike FF7.
I would kill for Decidueye but I think his chances are dead in the water. He had his chance in the base game, and he was passed over. I've accepted it and moved on. Kinda.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Remember the Ubisoft chat bot that used to mention Rayman for Smash but one day stopped?

not that I think that means anything one way or the other, but it’s something to think about ig

Wasn't it called Sam or something?
I remember they changed their answer when people asked if Rayman would show up in Smash and that stirred up quite a bit of conversation.

 

[Jondolio]

Decidueye feels like the type of character that would appeal to me and literally only me.
Which is another reason why I don't think he's gonna be the final character.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Still it's not as sellout-y as speculation based on bringing in new audiences is. XC2 bringing in a new audience to Xenoblade is partially due to Shulk in Smash for one thing. It's not even a game that's sold over 2 million.

I mean, the point still stands that XC2 also has a chance of bringing people to Smash and Smash fans also have a bad tendency to overvalue their influence on things at times and in the process inadvertently deny the actual work done to bring people to new series like XC and Fire Emblem have done in the past. I won't deny the existence of a Smash bump, but I definitely think series develop a whole lot more independently outside of the Smash bubble than people give them credit for.

But beyond that, I don't see their decision making as selling out because that's just dumb. They're making crazy crossovers happen that tend to excite people more than it disappoints them. A profit motive does not fundamentally change if a fan is excited for a character outside of very particular people on this site. People who wanted Hero don't care in the least bit that there was a profit motive to him being added, same for Steve, etc. We can talk about various evils of a capitalism all you want, but characters in Smash isn't really one of them.

 

[UltimateCyborgOverlord]

Overall, we're possibly at the last week of Smash Speculation: based on how Nintendo does their marketing, Sep 1st should be the date of the Direct since next week is empty, Wario Ware overview trailer dropped as intended for a smaller release (2 weeks) and the week after is Wario Ware reviews + release.

Yeah, I'll bet my Burger King on it: September 1st, like one week from now we'll be watching the Fall Direct. To quote 1986 Transformers the Movie: "I JUST have this feeling"

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Decidueye who was going to be in Smash, but Sakurai chose Incineroar instead.

Minor correction: Decidueye, Incineroar, and presumably Primarina were considered at the same time, so the only one who was going to be in the game was the one that Sakurai picked; Incineroar.

Decidueye feels like the type of character that would appeal to me and literally only me.
Which is another reason why I don't think he's gonna be the final character.

Not only you. Most people here wanted Decidueye instead of Incineroar. It's definitely not going to be the final character, but there is a group of people that would be happy that the Pokémon eventually got in (even if most people would just be disappointed that the final fighter was a Pokémon).

 

[Guynamednelson]

I mean, the point still stands that XC2 also has a chance of bringing people to Smash and Smash fans also have a bad tendency to overvalue their influence on things at times and in the process inadvertently deny the actual work done to bring people to new series like XC and Fire Emblem have done in the past. I won't deny the existence of a Smash bump, but I definitely think series develop a whole lot more independently outside of the Smash bubble than people give them credit for.

But beyond that, I don't see their decision making as selling out because that's just dumb. They're making crazy crossovers happen that tend to excite people more than it disappoints them. A profit motive does not fundamentally change if a fan is excited for a character outside of very particular people on this site. People who wanted Hero don't care in the least bit that there was a profit motive to him being added, same for Steve, etc. We can talk about various evils of a capitalism all you want, but characters in Smash isn't really one of them.

But when speculation focuses on expanding Smash's audience, it thinks bigger than Xenoblade. Way bigger. And not having any sort of representation in Smash already.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Rayman as the final character would really excite me, and it does seem weird that Ubisoft is the only AAA company with multiple spirits in the base game and two DLC Mii costumes but no character.
...but I still think it's gonna be a Pokémon.

Watch as the final character ends up being Rowlet