Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

[Ivander]

Does anyone know when the man of the hour is gonna drop?

So... when does Kazuya drop?

Supposedly, 6 PM EST. That's what I've seen a couple people say, so I don't know for sure.

Edit: Nevermind then.

 

[Perkilator]

So... when does Kazuya drop?

Here are the times:

If you're wondering about the release time for Kazuya in Smash here's some time conversions for multiple countries :)

This is the time pretty much all of the DLC characters have dropped so it'll most likely be the same again pic.twitter.com/N2JvKw47L1

— Aero (@ActualAero) June 29, 2021

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Looks like there's fun to be had with Miis after all.

Match of the Millennium pic.twitter.com/mTW3Hrrvd8

— Jon Cartwright (@JonComms) June 29, 2021

 

[True Blue Warrior]

= Goku
= Vegeta
= Shrek

A true revelation indeed.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

= Goku
= Vegeta
= Shrek

A true revelation indeed.

Don't forget

= Shaggy

 

[Technomage]

Don't forget

= Shaggy

Also:

Metal Box + = Pepsiman

 

[Momotsuki]

Spoiler: Medium-sized image embed

Decided to get a head start on making a skin mod for the new main - by doing up the render edit for the UI (resized here to not inconvenience data users)! His clothes and shoes will have major shininess effects as reflected here (pun not intended). I was an idiot and started doing the Switch equivalent of mashing F5 fifteen minutes ago. Wrong timezone!

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

I do think it’s strange that this pass, including Kazuya, has followed the second chance occurrence to a tee.

Arms barely missed it because of how close it was to it’s release.

Steve took 5 years to negotiate.

Sephiroth is the outlier here but even then there were rumors behind him and the lack of FF7 stuff inbase was suspicious in hindsight.

Xenoblade Chronicles 2 for the same reason as Arms.

And finally a Tekken character was considered for Smash 4 and maybe even early Smash Ultimate.

I have to wonder who else could follow that second chance pattern if it continues to the very last one. Dixie? Chorus Kids? …Hayabusa?

Then again this whole thing could just be a big coincidence.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I do think it’s strange that this pass, including Kazuya, has followed the second chance occurrence to a tee.

Arms barely missed it because of how close it was to it’s release.

Steve took 5 years to negotiate.

Sephiroth is the outlier here but even then there were rumors behind him and the lack of FF7 stuff inbase was suspicious in hindsight.

Xenoblade Chronicles 2 for the same reason as Arms.

And finally a Tekken character was considered for Smash 4 and maybe even early Smash Ultimate.

I have to wonder who else could follow that second chance pattern if it continues to the very last one. Dixie? Chorus Kids? …Hayabusa?

Then again this whole thing could just be a big coincidence.

It's funny, because they seem to focus a lot on the fact that Volume 2 has 1 extra fighter. So either this will be yet another character who got a "second chance" or... this is the time where the theory will be broken, because this is the one fighter that wasn't considered originally. We've got no real way to know.

 

[Perkilator]

I do think it’s strange that this pass, including Kazuya, has followed the second chance occurrence to a tee.

Arms barely missed it because of how close it was to it’s release.

Steve took 5 years to negotiate.

Sephiroth is the outlier here but even then there were rumors behind him and the lack of FF7 stuff inbase was suspicious in hindsight.

Xenoblade Chronicles 2 for the same reason as Arms.

And finally a Tekken character was considered for Smash 4 and maybe even early Smash Ultimate.

I have to wonder who else could follow that second chance pattern if it continues to the very last one. Dixie? Chorus Kids? …Hayabusa?

Then again this whole thing could just be a big coincidence.

Maybe Sonic? Shadow missed the boat to be an Echo fighter, so maybe we could make up for it by having Eggman be the last fighter?

 

[Peripuff]

Also:

Metal Box + = Pepsiman

= Android 17

 

[DanganZilla5]

I'm not sure if anyone brought this up yet but there is now a pattern with the Mii costumes.

We now have 3 costumes with a song, and all of those costumes are indies. They skipped over Travis, Geno, Dante, Dragonborn, etc. when it comes to the song department. So it seems like that only the indie costumes will get a song, probably because it's cheaper to acquire a song from an indie dev. It's still a dam shame though. The music selection is already huge so maybe I shouldn't complain but we could have had songs like Beware the Forest's Mushrooms and No More Heroes' main theme be in Smash. It would give Ultimate's soundtrack that extra push to be truly considered "ultimate".

 

[Idon]

I do think it’s strange that this pass, including Kazuya, has followed the second chance occurrence to a tee.

Arms barely missed it because of how close it was to it’s release.

Steve took 5 years to negotiate.

Sephiroth is the outlier here but even then there were rumors behind him and the lack of FF7 stuff inbase was suspicious in hindsight.

Xenoblade Chronicles 2 for the same reason as Arms.

And finally a Tekken character was considered for Smash 4 and maybe even early Smash Ultimate.

I have to wonder who else could follow that second chance pattern if it continues to the very last one. Dixie? Chorus Kids? …Hayabusa?

Then again this whole thing could just be a big coincidence.

hmm... maybe...?

 

[Guynamednelson]

I have to wonder who else could follow that second chance pattern if it continues to the very last one. Dixie? Chorus Kids?

Krystal would kind of be funny to see as the last character in a pass full of second chances, because choosing Wolf over her in Brawl, and her over any other video game character as CP11 would be for the exact same reason: Needing to reuse assets.

 

[Inferno7]

I do think it’s strange that this pass, including Kazuya, has followed the second chance occurrence to a tee.

Arms barely missed it because of how close it was to it’s release.

Steve took 5 years to negotiate.

Sephiroth is the outlier here but even then there were rumors behind him and the lack of FF7 stuff inbase was suspicious in hindsight.

Xenoblade Chronicles 2 for the same reason as Arms.

And finally a Tekken character was considered for Smash 4 and maybe even early Smash Ultimate.

I have to wonder who else could follow that second chance pattern if it continues to the very last one. Dixie? Chorus Kids? …Hayabusa?

Then again this whole thing could just be a big coincidence.

Either this is a case of the last character being completely unrelated to this theory, or it will keep the trend going. And honestly, I could see the former happening since I looked up who else was scrapped and the only realizable choices (that wouldn't include double dipping) were among a Rhythm Heaven rep and Ayumi which imo are very, very low-key, at least for the general audience. Anything else just dives way deep into speculative ground.

I want it to be Sonic though, Shadow got done dirty in base game (ad nauseam I know) and Sakurai won't have to bother with the AT precedent breaking the internet since this is the last one. It could also be Waluigi though but he'd have a harder time coming up with spirits I imagine.
I do expect RE or something of the like, or a moderately big franchise at least, but not necessarily a big character associated with the Smash bubble a lot.

 

[Guynamednelson]

low-key

don't make me say it

 

[DittoInDisguise]

Either this is a case of the last character being completely unrelated to this theory, or it will keep the trend going. And honestly, I could see the former happening since I looked up who else was scrapped and the only realizable choices (that wouldn't include double dipping) were among a Rhythm Heaven rep and Ayumi which imo are very, very low-key, at least for the general audience. Anything else just dives way deep into speculative ground.

I want it to be Sonic though, Shadow got done dirty in base game (ad nauseam I know) and Sakurai won't have to bother with the AT precedent breaking the internet since this is the last one. It could also be Waluigi though but he'd have a harder time coming up with spirits I imagine.
I do expect RE or something of the like, or a moderately big franchise at least, but not necessarily a big character associated with the Smash bubble a lot.

i don't think waluigi would have much trouble with spirits. Bk came with only 7 and there are already 3 waluigi spirits in the game. You can easily throw in karts from mario kart, items from mario party, and variations of existing character spirits (for ex. Mario Gulf super rush King Bob-omb). He's pretty much the face of spin offs and they have like 20+ yrs of mario spin offs to pull from.

I'm also leaning towards 1st party as the last character, fits with what they've done in the past and having one of their one properties as the "one more fighter" they end things on makes sense to me. Probably Ayumi.

 

[CureParfait]

What do you think Kazuya's DLC Tournament is gonna be based around, since that is also coming today when he releases?

Probably a tournament with characters who have two forms.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Probably a tournament with characters who have two forms.

Wasn't that already Pyra's tournament?

 

[Inferno7]

i don't think waluigi would have much trouble with spirits. Bk came with only 7 and there are already 3 waluigi spirits in the game. You can easily throw in karts from mario kart, items from mario party, and variations of existing character spirits (for ex. Mario Gulf super rush King Bob-omb). He's pretty much the face of spin offs and they have like 20+ yrs of mario spin offs to pull from.

It would be incredibly bizarre from a DLC standpoint though, and spin-offs are very well represented as far as spirits are concerned so they would have to reuse a lot of them I imagine
Not gatekeeping the choice but I feel like it's worth pointing out

don't make me say it

say what?

 

[Neverx]

【トーナメントイベント】
7/2(金)から3日間、「対決！ 2010年代生まれ」を開催！ 2010～2019年に誕生したファイター/ステージでのトーナメントです。 勝ち進むほど、豪華なスピリッツが手に入ります。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/tVyTcSoO0l

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) June 29, 2021

2010s tourney outta nowhere.

 

[chocolatejr9]

One of the cards in the game.

— Obscure Nintendo Character of the Day Descriptions (@oncotd_guide) June 29, 2021

Permission to make a joke about Don-chan being first party?

 

[GilTheGreat19]

2010s tourney confirmed!

So a chance our final fighter didn't originate from the 2010s..
Vice versa is also true, tbf

 

[DittoInDisguise]

It would be incredibly bizarre from a DLC standpoint though, and spin-offs are very well represented as far as spirits are concerned so they would have to reuse a lot of them I imagine
Not gatekeeping the choice but I feel like it's worth pointing out

Maybe, but a cursory glance at the smash wiki suggests we only have 2 spirits from mario tennis (mario and luigi) and one from mario golf. Those two series alone have enough objects and characters to fill waluigi's spirit board quite nicely.

 

[Guynamednelson]

【トーナメントイベント】
7/2(金)から3日間、「対決！ 2010年代生まれ」を開催！ 2010～2019年に誕生したファイター/ステージでのトーナメントです。 勝ち進むほど、豪華なスピリッツが手に入ります。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/tVyTcSoO0l

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) June 29, 2021

2010s tourney outta no where.

2010s tourney confirmed!

So a chance our final fighter didn't originate from the 2010s..
Vice versa is also true, tbf

I think the most interesting thing about this is that Kazuya debuted in the 90s, so he can't participate in this tournament.

"Tournaments right after a new fighter releases are connected to the latest one" theory debunked.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

"Tournaments right after a new fighter releases are connected to the latest one" theory debunked.

It's the last tourney BEFORE Kazuya released, though.

Let's wait and see what the first one AFTER he releases is.

 

[Inferno7]

【トーナメントイベント】
7/2(金)から3日間、「対決！ 2010年代生まれ」を開催！ 2010～2019年に誕生したファイター/ステージでのトーナメントです。 勝ち進むほど、豪華なスピリッツが手に入ります。#スマブラSP pic.twitter.com/tVyTcSoO0l

— 大乱闘スマッシュブラザーズ【スマブラ公式】 (@SmashBrosJP) June 29, 2021

2010s tourney outta nowhere.

It's been a long time since the last one
Well, perhaps now we should be inclined to believe a post 2010 fighter wouldn't be that likely anymore? There seems to be a lot of people talking about the SMTV guy so just curious

 

[Technomage]

Maybe Sonic? Shadow missed the boat to be an Echo fighter, so maybe we could make up for it by having Eggman be the last fighter?

Maybe, though Sonic Forces especially would fit the Second Chance theory.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Wasn't that already Pyra's tournament?

Pyra/Mythra's tourney seems to be "characters with significant Alternate Costumes".

 

[Shroob]

Well, there's the 2010's tournament that people were freaking out about.


Glad we can put that one to bed finally.

 

[Inferno7]

Maybe, though Sonic Forces especially would fit the Second Chance theory.

inb4 Infinite

 

[Guynamednelson]

Maybe, though Sonic Forces especially would fit the Second Chance theory.

Eh I still think "We could get another sonic rep because second chance" is more "i want one so sakurai does too" than anything else. You may not like Sonic's music/spirit selection, but it's still not as abysmal as FFVII in base's.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Maybe, though Sonic Forces especially would fit the Second Chance theory.

lol can you imagine if they added the Rookie?

The salt would be real.

 

[Technomage]

Eh I still think "We could get another sonic rep because second chance" is more "i want one so sakurai does too" than anything else. You may not like Sonic's music/spirit selection, but it's still not as abysmal as FFVII in base's.

That's true. And yeah, Sonic had always got nothing on Final Fantasy in terms of base game scarcity.

 

[GilTheGreat19]

Ya know
Someone else said it before as well
CP11 could be the one fighter that doesn't fit 2nd chance theory.

Despite that, it could ALSO be a series/character that we have NO idea actually fits the theory
I'll make up an example

Ubisoft
Nintendo wanted Ubisoft to get a fighter (say base game (not as much FP1)... Ubisoft themselves wanted Rayman, Nintendo wanted someone else (say. Ezio); no negotiation could be made.
However, Nintendo tries again with Ubisoft, and Ubisoft reluctantly agrees to work with Nintendo on Ezio

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I think some people misunderstand the "second chance theory". The theory is about fighter who were considered for base game or past game but didn't make the cut. The theory isn't about missing content like Mario spin off spirits or some Sonic music. That doesn't mean that those characters have 0% chance, our last fighter doesn't need to follow the theory, but there was never any evidence that Shadow was planned for base game and got cut, or Waluigi.

 

[SharkLord]

I saw people discussing whether or not Heihachi was really ditched for the lack of Devil Gene, and I've been thinking about that a little. I'm still taking Sakurai's words at face value here; From the looks of it, he probably saw them as roughly equal in prominence and felt Kazuya could do most of what Heihachi could on top of the Devil Gene flair, and so he just opted for Kazuya over Heihachi based on that.

I do think it’s strange that this pass, including Kazuya, has followed the second chance occurrence to a tee.

Arms barely missed it because of how close it was to it’s release.

Steve took 5 years to negotiate.

Sephiroth is the outlier here but even then there were rumors behind him and the lack of FF7 stuff inbase was suspicious in hindsight.

Xenoblade Chronicles 2 for the same reason as Arms.

And finally a Tekken character was considered for Smash 4 and maybe even early Smash Ultimate.

I have to wonder who else could follow that second chance pattern if it continues to the very last one. Dixie? Chorus Kids? …Hayabusa?

Then again this whole thing could just be a big coincidence.

To be fair Kazuya isn't exactly in the same spot as the others. ARMS, XC2, and presumably Steve were planned for the base game (Granted, the given timeframe for when the talks started was around the end of SSB4's cycle, but I doubt they actually started going anywhere until a decent amount of time later). Heihachi was all the way back in Smash 4's base game, much earlier than the previous characters that fit Second Chance theory. Chances are the next fighter was someone considered for Smash 64 all this time and we never knew about it.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

You know

despite him being Mii’d twice, I don’t think there’s ever been a Gil (Tower of Druaga) thread

anyone wanna make one? Feels bad he doesn’t have one

 

[Inferno7]

Ya know
Someone else said it before as well
CP11 could be the one fighter that doesn't fit 2nd chance theory.

Despite that, it could ALSO be a series/character that we have NO idea actually fits the theory
I'll make up an example

Ubisoft
Nintendo wanted Ubisoft to get a fighter... Ubisoft themselves wanted Rayman, Nintendo wanted someone else (say. Ezio); no negotiation could be made.
However, Nintendo tries again with Ubisoft, and Ubisoft reluctantly agrees to work with Nintendo on Ezio

Considering there was no actual way to know Steve was planned, I've considered this outcome as well.

There's also the slight possibility it's an unrelated fanservicey character that got picked at the very end, but I'm not holding my breath,

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I think also announcing the 2010s tourney makes sense now

cause the last fighter will come with the Ultimate Newcomers Tourney