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Official DLC Speculation Discussion Volume II

cashregister9

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An Apex Legends character would certainly be a pick.

Tfw no Sims tho :c
I'm quoting to use this as a segue.

I made a mockup for a Sims stage. (I made it in the Sims)



The stage would be a solid platform in the middle with a bunch of Objects from the sims scattered in the background, The clouds behind may also part to reveal a World map from a game.

Weather Patterns can also change as well as the game

 
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Pacack

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I think Rayman kinda dropped off because he's just not as active as a franchise compared to the Smash 4 days. He's not exactly dormant, seeing as he still has that mobile game, but he hasn't had a real mainline game in a while and so he's just not in the spotlight anymore.
Agreed. I'm simply noting that the drop off was quite dramatic, and the pros in his favor still exist.

First-parties in general have dropped off due to a variety of reasons. The DLC doesn't seem to favor settings with a fighter already - The sole exception thus far being Sephiroth, from an infamously poorly-repped series - And a lot of the recent Nintendo releases have been given Spirit Events. All the DLC packs have had all the content from that series all in once place, at least in terms of the pass. The one exception are the Tockle Spirits, which are a gift for getting DQXI or it's port. General agreement is that Spirits indicate that a game or series won't get a fighter; This includes New Horizons, and either way the pass was decided long before Nintendo could know about it's success.
The idea that DLC won't include characters from preexisting series is based on nothing concrete. The Spirit Boards for Min-Min, Sephiroth, and Pyra/Mythra's all included spirits that were in base game. There is no reason whatsoever to think that the same thing cannot be done for any other character.
Regarding the widened breadth of third-parties, that's largely because third-parties have been the norm throughout SSBU's DLC cycle, and also made up the majority of newcomers back in Smash 4's DLC. As such, most attention is directed towards the third-parties.

It should also be noted that we've had to adjust our priors a lot throughout the DLC cycle. Expectations were immediately blown out of the water with Joker, who only had a single Nintendo appearance to his name at that point. Smaller third-parties were dismissed until we got Terry. Everyone though FP1 would be entirely third-party up until Byleth's addition. Many doubted third-party series could get a second original fighter, and then we got Sephiroth. A lot of people have just lowered the bar in advance, because if there's any consistent pattern in Smash, it's patterns getting broken.
This is exactly what I'm criticizing. The bar being lowered is not something based on significant evidence.

While Terry's inclusion seems like an odd outlier, it's undeniable that he still carries gaming history with him; his series is long-running and one of the most popular fighting game franchises. Terry absolutely fits the criteria that Sakurai lays out in the quote I provided, and we have no reason to believe that a character who doesn't fit those criteria will be added.
I'll also say that Sakurai's comment isn't really able to determine much. "Owners must allow it" - Everyone and their mom wants their games in Smash. "Must be able to put them in Smash" - This is the guy who redid every stage in the game for Steve Minecraft. "Must have game history" - Vague and subjective. It's just too vague to take at face value.
I'm not sure that you're recognizing how incredibly bold it is to say that we shouldn't take Sakurai at his word.

"It’s not going to be anyone and everyone." "The character must carry game history with them."

Those are very plain statements. We can absolutely argue about who carries game history or who counts as anyone and everyone. However, it would be obtuse to suggest that those statements are meaningless. Yes, the statements have a level of ambiguity to them, but that does not mean we ought to disregard them entirely.
 

N3ON

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Just remember we're almost at the end of a long path that has seem many deconfirmations and few remaining fairly plausible candidates, which has resulted in people looking elsewhere to find candidates they feel have a decent chance. I think some of those ascriptions are valid, and some are definitely pushing it. But the current situation we find ourselves in where most past options seem off the table is coming to a close soon. Maybe very soon, if we get a double reveal next month.

Then, eventually, the cycle will reset, and many characters will gradually filter back into the discussion when the focus turns to the future instead of the current game. ATs, Capcom, Square, other deconfirmed favourites... they'll be back. Many of them, at least.

It's a mistake to extrapolate from the current circumstance, since so many things have transpired to shift and mold it into its current state, where several of the most discussed characters come from series of highly regional popularity, or come from fairly niche franchises. These aren't the kind of characters Smash makes a great habit to include, but it's what we seem to be left with. Maybe we're left with them... because they're the very type Smash has a penchant of excluding.

So I think we're reaching strange conclusions these days, but ones that, when you consider how few obvious frontrunners remain, and how close we are to the end of the marathon, are explainable. This is also a side-effect of the scope expanding so far as to make things seem... nebulous. The same couldn't be said for past games. The scale and span of the DLC phase for Ultimate has protracted the discourse to the point of growing strain.

But don't worry. It'll all be over soon. ;)
 

SNEKeater

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I think Rayman being barely discussed is due to multiple factors.

During Smash 4 usually the third parties that were seriously considered by speculators were series or characters with significant ties to Nintendo. That's why characters such as Bayonetta or Rayman got more attention and were seen more likely than bigger characters that also fill a similar niche to them, like Dante and Crash, to name a few examples.

Therefore, the pool of realizable third parties in eyes of the community was very small. Rayman had 2 (really good) games during that time, and if I'm not mistaken, Rayman Legends was exclusive of Wii U for some time. Those games probably did sell well on Nintendo consoles, Rayman was relevant and most of the attention probably came from Nintendo users, so considering him for Smash was a logical move.

But he didn't make it, and between the third parties we got during the DLC cycle of Smash 4 and the ones we got in Ultimate, specially during Fighter Pass 1, speculation pretty much changed a lot, as we all know. So possibilities felt endless and a lot of characters started getting more attention, attention that they never got before for different reasons.

If you take that, and then see that, unfortunately, Ubisoft hasn't made new Rayman games since Legends, and that he was a spirit in base game, which pretty much killed any speculation about 99% of spirits during Pass 1...
Not so much during Pass 2, but I think it's obvious discussion of most spirit characters hasn't changed much for multiple reasons. Even if base game promotions are now fair game, everyone realized not every DLC character left was going to be a spirit promotion.

I believe Rayman by himself isn't a small character, as some have said sometimes, but in my opinion he isn't a big one either, so between that and the big change in Ultimate's speculation, his momentum has suffered a lot.
 

Pacack

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Just remember we're almost at the end of a long path that has seem many deconfirmations and few remaining fairly plausible candidates, which has resulted in people looking elsewhere to find candidates they feel have a decent chance. I think some of those ascriptions are valid, and some are definitely pushing it. But the current situation we find ourselves in where most past options seem off the table is coming to a close soon. Maybe very soon, if we get a double reveal next month.

Then, eventually, the cycle will reset, and many characters will gradually filter back into the discussion when the focus turns to the future instead of the current game. ATs, Capcom, Square, other deconfirmed favourites... they'll be back. Many of them, at least.

It's a mistake to extrapolate from the current circumstance, since so many things have transpired to shift and mold it into its current state, where several of the most discussed characters come from series of highly regional popularity, or come from fairly niche franchises. These aren't the kind of characters Smash makes a great habit to include, but it's what we seem to be left with. Maybe we're left with them... because they're the very type Smash has a penchant of excluding.

So I think we're reaching strange conclusions these days, but ones that, when you consider how few obvious frontrunners remain, and how close we are to the end of the marathon, are explainable. This is also a side-effect of the scope expanding so far as to make things seem... nebulous. The same couldn't be said for past games. The scale and span of the DLC phase for Ultimate has protracted the discourse to the point of growing strain.

But don't worry. It'll all be over soon. ;)
Well said.
 
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Sakurai POTD.


So Greninja has died, he is but a memory in the stars. The only one left is the genetically engineered cat that, while designed to be the world's most powerful Pokemon by mafia-funded scientists, he will be enslaved by somebody with a Game Boy soon enough.

Game Time.png



A humiliating defeat.
 

SharkLord

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The idea that DLC won't include characters from preexisting series is based on nothing concrete. The Spirit Boards for Min-Min, Sephiroth, and Pyra/Mythra's all included spirits that were in base game. There is no reason whatsoever to think that the same thing cannot be done for any other character.
All the packs so far have focused on new content. Even with games like ARMS and XC2, which reused base game Spirits, those games didn't have any fighters. Most people are hesitant to buy into the popular supporting characters on the basis that DLC just hasn't favored their kind, with their games already having fighters, stages, songs, Spirits, etc.

This is exactly what I'm criticizing. The bar being lowered is not something based on significant evidence.

While Terry's inclusion seems like an odd outlier, it's undeniable that he still carries gaming history with him; his series is long-running and one of the most popular fighting game franchises. Terry absolutely fits the criteria that Sakurai lays out in the quote I provided, and we have no reason to believe that a character who doesn't fit those criteria will be added.
You brought up sales figures in relation to to the "game history" thing. Sales are a pretty good indicator, but not every game relies on raw sales; As you mentioned, SNK's games don't really have much sales figures that are recorded. Focusing solely on the sales is what I was addressing there.

I'm not sure that you're recognizing how incredibly bold it is to say that we shouldn't take Sakurai at his word.

"It’s not going to be anyone and everyone." "The character must carry game history with them."

Those are very plain statements. We can absolutely argue about who carries game history or who counts as anyone and everyone. However, it would be obtuse to suggest that those statements are meaningless. Yes, the statements have a level of ambiguity to them, but that does not mean we ought to disregard them entirely.
The thing is, it's still pretty ambiguous. "Game history" is a broad, vague, and subjective term, and it's kinda hard to make sense of it. If we apply it to our current speculation... Not much would change. Everyone has their own opinion of what "game history" means and who has more history, and those opinions won't budge that easily. Heck, that's what we've already been doing anyways.

Let's say "Touhou has game history." Now let's see how long we can debate that topic. Now let's do that basically every time Reimu is suggested as likely or unlikely to be added to Smash. Now let's swap that out with any other character; Sakura, Adol, Euden, Crash, Hayabusa (At least, before he was shot down), you name it. If we start taking that line more seriously, it won't do a thing because we've basically been keeping that idea in mind the whole time. The only thing that changes is the choice of words.
 

DarthEnderX

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MBRedboy31

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if I'm not mistaken, Rayman Legends was exclusive of Wii U for some time.
Interesting thing about that, IIRC, it was originally going to be a Wii U exclusive, but Ubisoft later went back on that and made it a multiplat, which caused the game to be significantly delayed so that all of the versions would come out at the same time. They did release the Rayman Legends Challenge App for free on at least Wii U to tide players over, though.
 

N3ON

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I agree with Pacack that Terry does seem like an outlier. But in common affair for Smash, a lot of weight has been put on an uncommon exception. Not to say there won't be more like Terry, because eventually there will be, but the series that preceded his were Persona and Dragon Quest. Those that followed were Minecraft and Final Fantasy. And then there was Banjo too, but demand is its own beast.

When you consider those franchises, it makes the claims of likelihood for what are, frankly, undeniably niche series like... Sakura Wars, Legend of Heroes/Trails, Atelier, even ones like Xenosaga and Streets of Rage, well it doesn't cast them in a light as favourable as people seem to think. Outliers happen, but they're named for being outside the norm. The norm, still, is that these series, many of which are smaller or less globally prolific than Terry's, don't make the cut. One instance to the contrary only moves the needle so much.

It's really the K. Rool effect, where one character gets in, and the main obstacle touted as prohibitive to their chances is seen as no longer being a factor instead of just being overcome by a few select examples. People think the bar is lower, but so far the evidence is just that a few have managed to vault over it.

And I know people don't like my constant negativity. I get it, but I'm just here to yin some yang.
You be negative and then I'll be the positive one. :reverse:
 

Pacack

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All the packs so far have focused on new content. Even with games like ARMS and XC2, which reused base game Spirits, those games didn't have any fighters. Most people are hesitant to buy into the popular supporting characters on the basis that DLC just hasn't favored their kind, with their games already having fighters, stages, songs, Spirits, etc.
As you noted before, patterns are broken all the time in Smash. This is nothing more than a superficial pattern, and we can't say with any degree of certainty that it has any meaning. Correlation =/= causation.

You brought up sales figures in relation to to the "game history" thing. Sales are a pretty good indicator, but not every game relies on raw sales; As you mentioned, SNK's games don't really have much sales figures that are recorded. Focusing solely on the sales is what I was addressing there.

The thing is, it's still pretty ambiguous. "Game history" is a broad, vague, and subjective term, and it's kinda hard to make sense of it. If we apply it to our current speculation... Not much would change. Everyone has their own opinion of what "game history" means and who has more history, and those opinions won't budge that easily. Heck, that's what we've already been doing anyways.

Let's say "Touhou has game history." Now let's see how long we can debate that topic. Now let's do that basically every time Reimu is suggested as likely or unlikely to be added to Smash. Now let's swap that out with any other character; Sakura, Adol, Euden, Crash, Hayabusa (At least, before he was shot down), you name it. If we start taking that line more seriously, it won't do a thing because we've basically been keeping that idea in mind the whole time. The only thing that changes is the choice of words.
I guess I just disagree that the statement is as subjective as you think it is.
I agree with Pacack that Terry does seem like an outlier. But in common affair for Smash, a lot of weight has been put on an uncommon exception. Not to say there won't be more like Terry, because eventually there will be, but the series that preceded his were Persona and Dragon Quest. Those that followed were Minecraft and Final Fantasy. And then there was Banjo too, but demand is its own beast.

When you consider those franchises, it makes the claims of likelihood for what are, frankly, undeniably niche series like... Sakura Wars, Legend of Heroes/Trails, Atelier, even ones like Xenosaga and Streets of Rage, well it doesn't cast them in a light as favourable as people seem to think. Outliers happen, but they're named for being outside the norm. The norm, still, is that these series, many of which are smaller or less globally prolific than Terry's, don't make the cut. One instance to the contrary only moves the needle so much.

It's really the K. Rool effect, where one character gets in, and the main obstacle touted as prohibitive to their chances is seen as no longer being a factor instead of just being overcome by a few select examples. People think the bar is lower, but so far the evidence is just that a few have managed to vault over it.

And I know people don't like my constant negativity. I get it, but I'm just here to yin some yang.
You be negative and then I'll be the positive one. :reverse:
N3ON here sums it up better than I can.
 
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Louie G.

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Averaging those numbers together, the average sales of third party franchises represented in Smash Bros is 67.67 million units. This implies that, while not the singular factor, sales absolutely do matter.
That was a really good writeup Pacack, and I think it's a good sort of reality check. I believe that thinking outside the box is a good thing to, but I find it's usually the most comfortable just a little bit outside that box rather than all the way on the other side of the room, yknow?

In any case, I wanted to use this part as a springboard for something else I've been thinking about - mainly how for some series, sales aren't telling the full picture. At risk of sounding like I'm trying to shift the conversation toward my MW (bear with me, it's just an example I'm particularly familiar with), one thing that particularly brought this to my attention was an interview with Puyo Puyo's producer Mizuki Hosoyamada:

https://twitter.com/gosokkyu/status/1172369224280395776?s=20

"it doesn't necessarily correlate to game sales but, according to Hosoyamada, Puyo Puyo has bigger brand awareness across more demographics/generations in Japan than any other Sega brand—like, overwhelmingly so, in the same ballpark as Sanrio, Nintendo, etc "

Meanwhile, Puyo Puyo has only about 25 million in sales, which includes Puyo Puyo Quest on mobile I believe - which puts it at Sega's second best selling series. Nothing to scoff at, but it's a far cry from the sales of Sega's obvious darling Sonic the Hedgehog. So it's a bit of a headscratcher, at first glance, how a series could underperform pretty drastically compared to Sonic and still apparently be bigger across these demographics.

Now from what I've gathered from a Japanese friend of mine, brands in Japan often rise to popularity through merchandise and general iconography. Cartoon characters, for example, make their way to Japan and will get some airtime, but will often make the biggest impact as say, a fashion statement. Like, I don't know how many people in Japan watch Spongebob, but he's still a highly marketable figure. You could probably make a similar case for Puyo's cutesy characters and the Puyo themselves: another friend of mine once brought Puyo gummies over from Japan, I'd expect a lot of that sort of thing.

And then of course you have the fact that Puyo Puyo got its greatest push in arcades, Puyo Tsu being toe to toe with Street Fighter II in Japanese arcades back in the 90s. That definitely helps spread notoriety that may not be properly reflected through sales numbers, and it seems like a good segue for exploring this for a series more familiar to Smash Bros.

---- Nerdy Puyo rambling ends here

Ryu and Mega Man are, undoubtedly, Capcom's biggest stars. That's the reason they're here. But as Pacack's sales reports show, Street Fighter's lifetime sales clock in at around 45 million and Mega Man's at 36 million. Meanwhile Monster Hunter and Resident Evil triumph over these two series, practically doubling their sales numbers... granted, I think Rathalos and Jill Valentine are plenty iconic in their own right, but it's hard to stack up to the likes of Capcom's two golden boys.

But anyway, it's really Mega Man's strong mascot marketability and Street Fighter's deep history on arcades that have propelled them to outright gaming legend status. SFII was an absolute phenomenon and it's telling that it's the game that has gotten an overwhelming amount of attention in Smash (to my chagrin - give me Third Strike content!). And Mega Man's success is fairly moderate compared to some other gaming mascots present in Smash, but as effectively Capcom's mascot he's made the rounds as quite the instantly recognizable and easily marketable figure in his own right. Despite what the sales may tell you, these two are almost certainly the characters that the most people are familiar with. Except maybe Monster Hunter nowadays, which has reached a monumental cultural status in Japan... but even so, we've got Rathalos too.

This extends toward Terry as well, but to a bit more of an extreme. Fatal Fury / King of Fighters obviously isn't as massive as the former two, but it's undoubtedly an important part of gaming / arcade history in its own right. I suppose this is an instance where Terry's history precedes him, he certainly has the merit from a legacy standpoint regardless of whether his games sold tremendously well on consoles or even whether or not he's a very recognizable character outside of a specific circle. I think Terry is a very fascinating case in general because it's kind of hard to put him on the same level as most of the others we've seen but he feels right at home regardless.

And while it's a bit of a special case, I would compare Mega Man to the likes of Kirby. Obviously different because Kirby isn't a third party, but more like... Kirby games don't really sell gangbusters or anything, but EVERYONE knows Kirby. He's probably one of the most easily marketable character designs ever, and his appeal and merchandise is what propelled him to being one of the most iconic video game characters out there. Well, that and Smash I presume, but that's another story.

Damn, sorry for the tangent. Just thought this was an interesting idea to explore. I mentioned Puyo Puyo already, but you guys think there are any other significant potential series that could join where the sales don't always tell the full picture?
 
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DevaAshera

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2B and Bomberman are now Fall Guys


(Also this is the second major collaboration with Tron, why and how?)

This is just another notch on the Nier crossover hierarchy, it's just missing Fortnite and Smash.
I'm going to continue hoping my girl makes it into Smash..
 

Pacack

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That was a really good writeup Pacack, and I think it's a good sort of reality check. I believe that thinking outside the box is a good thing to, but I find it's usually the most comfortable just a little bit outside that box rather than all the way on the other side of the room, yknow?

In any case, I wanted to use this part as a springboard for something else I've been thinking about - mainly how for some series, sales aren't telling the full picture. At risk of sounding like I'm trying to shift the conversation toward my MW (bear with me, it's just an example I'm particularly familiar with), one thing that particularly brought this to my attention was an interview with Puyo Puyo's producer Mizuki Hosoyamada:

https://twitter.com/gosokkyu/status/1172369224280395776?s=20

"it doesn't necessarily correlate to game sales but, according to Hosoyamada, Puyo Puyo has bigger brand awareness across more demographics/generations in Japan than any other Sega brand—like, overwhelmingly so, in the same ballpark as Sanrio, Nintendo, etc "

Meanwhile, Puyo Puyo has only about 25 million in sales, which includes Puyo Puyo Quest on mobile I believe - which puts it at Sega's second best selling series. Nothing to scoff at, but it's a far cry from the sales of Sega's obvious darling Sonic the Hedgehog. So it's a bit of a headscratcher, at first glance, how a series could underperform pretty drastically compared to Sonic and still apparently be bigger across these demographics.

Now from what I've gathered from a Japanese friend of mine, brands in Japan often rise to popularity through merchandise and general iconography. Cartoon characters, for example, make their way to Japan and will get some airtime, but will often make the biggest impact as say, a fashion statement. Like, I don't know how many people in Japan watch Spongebob for example, but he's still a highly marketable figure. You could probably make a similar case for Puyo's cutesy characters and the Puyo themselves: another friend of mine once brought Puyo gummies over from Japan, I'd expect a lot of that sort of thing.

And then of course you have the fact that Puyo Puyo got its greatest push in arcades, Puyo Tsu being toe to toe with Street Fighter II in Japanese arcades back in the 90s. That definitely helps spread notoriety that may not be properly reflected through sales numbers, and it seems like a good segue for exploring this for a series more familiar to Smash Bros.

---- Nerdy Puyo rambling over ends here

Ryu and Mega Man are, undoubtedly, Capcom's biggest stars. That's the reason they're here. But as Pacack's sales reports show, Street Fighter's lifetime sales clock in at around 45 million and Mega Man's at 36 million. Meanwhile Monster Hunter and Resident Evil triumph over these two series, practically doubling their sales numbers... granted, I think Rathalos and Jill Valentine are plenty iconic in their own right, but it's hard to stack up to the likes of Capcom's two golden boys.

But anyway, it's really Mega Man's strong mascot marketability and Street Fighter's deep history on arcades that have propelled them to outright gaming legend status. SFII was an absolute phenomenon and it's telling that it's the game that has gotten an overwhelming amount of attention in Smash (to my chagrin - give me Third Strike content!). And Mega Man's success is fairly moderate compared to some other gaming mascots present in Smash, but as effectively Capcom's mascot he's made the rounds as quite the instantly recognizable and easily marketable figure in his own right. Despite what the sales may tell you, these two are almost certainly the series that the most people are familiar with. Except maybe Monster Hunter nowadays, which has reached a monumental cultural status in Japan... but even so, we've got Rathalos too.

This extends toward Terry as well, but to a bit more of an extreme. Fatal Fury / King of Fighters obviously isn't as massive as the former two, but it's undoubtedly an important part of gaming / arcade history in its own right. I suppose this is an instance where Terry's history precedes him, he certainly has the merit from a legacy standpoint regardless of whether his games sold tremendously well on consoles or even whether or not he's a very recognizable character outside of a specific circle. I think Terry is a very fascinating case in general because it's kind of hard to put him on the same level as most of the others we've seen but he feels right at home regardless.

And while it's a bit of a special case, I would compare Mega Man to the likes of Kirby. Obviously different because Kirby isn't a third party, but more like... Kirby games don't really sell gangbusters or anything, but EVERYONE knows Kirby. He's probably one of the most marketable character designs ever, and his appeal and merchandise is what propelled him to being one of the most iconic video game characters out there. Well, that and Smash I presume, but that's another story.

Damn, sorry for the tangent. Just thought this was an interesting idea to explore. I mentioned Puyo Puyo already, but you guys think there are any other significant potential series that could join where the sales don't always tell the full picture?
Ditto to you on the good writeup. :)
 

SharkLord

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Don't think I got my point across as well as intended, so let's back up a bit.

Pacack's point was that people should reel it in a little, citing Sakurai's quote that the criteria is "game history," among others. Maybe I've just grown tired of debating... Okay, no, that's definitely it. I think I'm just fried from all the tireless debates now.

We've had a lot of debates like this before, I think. Arguments on what qualifies as "iconic," or "influential," or what have you. Everyone has their own distinct standards, and by now, I don't think any of their standards are gonna change. Pick an oft-discussed character, go back through the thread, count how many times your character of choice has been debated. Take a shot whenever an argument actually goes anywhere - Or don't at all, because nothing will change.

I'm just tired at this point. We've discussed and debated and argued and nothing has changed and nothing will change until we get a new character. Then everything re-solidifies after a week and we're back to square one. The way I see it, if we take that Sakurai quote into account, nothing changes because we've had talks like this before and opinions haven't budged an inch, so what makes this instance different?

I like finding new games to look into and seeing what they're about. Endless debates about likelihood and how big is too big and how small is too small, on the other hand, have grown stale. Unfortunately, it seems like it's just 90% arguments now, and it's just not fun. We've talked about this earlier today, and I can definitely see why the original poster said what they said. It's just grown stale.

I don't really care that much about who gets in at this point. Honestly, SmashBoards feels separate from the actual Smash reveals at this point, and with how big and divisive the options have grown nowadays, it's probably better if we just go "Hey, so (x) would be cool..." instead of the arguments. Or at least, that's how it feels at this point.

Sorry about the rant, but something just clicked while writing and I needed to get this out. I'm beginning to realize I'm just not a really argumentative guy. Well, maybe I was, but that side of me has had his fill. Either way, I'm thinking I should just back off of the debates. Start trying to find ways to get more casual discussion going. See if I can get that Character Exploration Thread we were discussing earlier off the ground.

Or maybe I just need some sleep. It's late where I am and me just being literally tired is entirely possible too.
 
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SharkLord

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Pangaea, 250 MYA
That was a really good writeup Pacack, and I think it's a good sort of reality check. I believe that thinking outside the box is a good thing to, but I find it's usually the most comfortable just a little bit outside that box rather than all the way on the other side of the room, yknow?

In any case, I wanted to use this part as a springboard for something else I've been thinking about - mainly how for some series, sales aren't telling the full picture. At risk of sounding like I'm trying to shift the conversation toward my MW (bear with me, it's just an example I'm particularly familiar with), one thing that particularly brought this to my attention was an interview with Puyo Puyo's producer Mizuki Hosoyamada:

https://twitter.com/gosokkyu/status/1172369224280395776?s=20

"it doesn't necessarily correlate to game sales but, according to Hosoyamada, Puyo Puyo has bigger brand awareness across more demographics/generations in Japan than any other Sega brand—like, overwhelmingly so, in the same ballpark as Sanrio, Nintendo, etc "

Meanwhile, Puyo Puyo has only about 25 million in sales, which includes Puyo Puyo Quest on mobile I believe - which puts it at Sega's second best selling series. Nothing to scoff at, but it's a far cry from the sales of Sega's obvious darling Sonic the Hedgehog. So it's a bit of a headscratcher, at first glance, how a series could underperform pretty drastically compared to Sonic and still apparently be bigger across these demographics.

Now from what I've gathered from a Japanese friend of mine, brands in Japan often rise to popularity through merchandise and general iconography. Cartoon characters, for example, make their way to Japan and will get some airtime, but will often make the biggest impact as say, a fashion statement. Like, I don't know how many people in Japan watch Spongebob, but he's still a highly marketable figure. You could probably make a similar case for Puyo's cutesy characters and the Puyo themselves: another friend of mine once brought Puyo gummies over from Japan, I'd expect a lot of that sort of thing.

And then of course you have the fact that Puyo Puyo got its greatest push in arcades, Puyo Tsu being toe to toe with Street Fighter II in Japanese arcades back in the 90s. That definitely helps spread notoriety that may not be properly reflected through sales numbers, and it seems like a good segue for exploring this for a series more familiar to Smash Bros.

---- Nerdy Puyo rambling over ends here

Ryu and Mega Man are, undoubtedly, Capcom's biggest stars. That's the reason they're here. But as Pacack's sales reports show, Street Fighter's lifetime sales clock in at around 45 million and Mega Man's at 36 million. Meanwhile Monster Hunter and Resident Evil triumph over these two series, practically doubling their sales numbers... granted, I think Rathalos and Jill Valentine are plenty iconic in their own right, but it's hard to stack up to the likes of Capcom's two golden boys.

But anyway, it's really Mega Man's strong mascot marketability and Street Fighter's deep history on arcades that have propelled them to outright gaming legend status. SFII was an absolute phenomenon and it's telling that it's the game that has gotten an overwhelming amount of attention in Smash (to my chagrin - give me Third Strike content!). And Mega Man's success is fairly moderate compared to some other gaming mascots present in Smash, but as effectively Capcom's mascot he's made the rounds as quite the instantly recognizable and easily marketable figure in his own right. Despite what the sales may tell you, these two are almost certainly the series that the most people are familiar with. Except maybe Monster Hunter nowadays, which has reached a monumental cultural status in Japan... but even so, we've got Rathalos too.

This extends toward Terry as well, but to a bit more of an extreme. Fatal Fury / King of Fighters obviously isn't as massive as the former two, but it's undoubtedly an important part of gaming / arcade history in its own right. I suppose this is an instance where Terry's history precedes him, he certainly has the merit from a legacy standpoint regardless of whether his games sold tremendously well on consoles or even whether or not he's a very recognizable character outside of a specific circle. I think Terry is a very fascinating case in general because it's kind of hard to put him on the same level as most of the others we've seen but he feels right at home regardless.

And while it's a bit of a special case, I would compare Mega Man to the likes of Kirby. Obviously different because Kirby isn't a third party, but more like... Kirby games don't really sell gangbusters or anything, but EVERYONE knows Kirby. He's probably one of the most easily marketable character designs ever, and his appeal and merchandise is what propelled him to being one of the most iconic video game characters out there. Well, that and Smash I presume, but that's another story.

Damn, sorry for the tangent. Just thought this was an interesting idea to explore. I mentioned Puyo Puyo already, but you guys think there are any other significant potential series that could join where the sales don't always tell the full picture?
I... kinda want to say Touhou, but given what happens whenever "Touhou" and "likely/unlikely" get mentioned around here I'm a bit worried...

Well, that and I've already talked about how Touhou's run by fanworks and osmisis rather than sales a fair bit before, and I don't want to start sounding like a broken record.

Aside from that, maybe League of Legends? I'm pretty sure we have records of the total downloads and people who log on per day, but as a free-to-play game it's not going to have any actual sales in the traditional "I paid for this copy of the game" sense.
 

Cutie Gwen

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Yeah I don't agree with gaming history being a major deal when Sakurai's included recent third parties primarily because they're cool as hell, especially as like others have said, it's hella subjective. Some people may consider Guilty Gear to not be significant to gaming history, others will think it's a big part of what shaped fighting games, some people will look at Touhou being one of the earliest indie games and point that as Reimu having gaming history, others will dismiss any and all indie characters
 

Pacack

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Yeah I don't agree with gaming history being a major deal when Sakurai's included recent third parties primarily because they're cool as hell, especially as like others have said, it's hella subjective. Some people may consider Guilty Gear to not be significant to gaming history, others will think it's a big part of what shaped fighting games, some people will look at Touhou being one of the earliest indie games and point that as Reimu having gaming history, others will dismiss any and all indie characters
I apologize for being blunt, but if you decide not to interpret Sakurai's words plainly and literally, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.
 

Cutie Gwen

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I apologize for being blunt, but if you decide not to interpret Sakurai's words plainly and literally, you're setting yourself up for disappointment.
Then please tell me the significant gaming history that were used when taking Persona and Bayonetta into account, or why Geno was considered by Sakurai despite Geno himself not having anything beyond popularity. As long as the characters are cool, I'm ok with them, so I fail to see why I'd be disappointed. Also, wasn't the quote you used from the Brawl days? Who knows, Sakurai's gotten significantly loser since then as he's changed his mind on pacifist characters, characters with guns, specific portrayals of characters, etc.
 

Pacack

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Then please tell me the significant gaming history that were used when taking Persona and Bayonetta into account, or why Geno was considered by Sakurai despite Geno himself not having anything beyond popularity. As long as the characters are cool, I'm ok with them, so I fail to see why I'd be disappointed. Also, wasn't the quote you used from the Brawl days? Who knows, Sakurai's gotten significantly loser since then as he's changed his mind on pacifist characters, characters with guns, specific portrayals of characters, etc.
I'm not going to argue this with you. I'm just saying that Sakurai means what he says.
 

Cutie Gwen

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I'm not going to argue this with you. I'm just saying that Sakurai means what he says.
Bro there's already evidence he's changed his mindset on that after a literal decade, people change like how Sakurai's changed his mindset multiple times, your username is just more evidence of Sakurai changing his mind on things
 

Louie G.

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I'm not going to argue this with you. I'm just saying that Sakurai means what he says.
Bro there's already evidence he's changed his mindset on that after a literal decade, people change like how Sakurai's changed his mindset multiple times, your username is just more evidence of Sakurai changing his mind on things
I think there's a kernel of truth to both of these perspectives - Sakurai is susceptible to changing his view on how characters are chosen, especially with third parties being so commonplace now, but it's good to look back on word of god to inform our speculation a little bit. I for one think Joker is a pretty significant outlier since he's just so new compared to most of the others, and Bayonetta already exists, so there's always gonna be exceptions regardless.

Fortunately "gaming history" is pretty loose anyway. Under the right context you can make a case for just about anything even if we were going to take that statement as gospel, lmao.
 
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GoodGrief741

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Terry Bogard and Fatal Fury/King of Fighters only seem like outliers in a pattern if you judge their success in terms of copies sold. But we're talking about a franchise and a developer that thrived in the arcades, and died out around the same time as they did. You won't find sales numbers for any SNK franchise (trust me; I have searched sales data for literally every SNK game and come up with nothing) because that wasn't how SNK themselves measured their success.

The rule remains that third-party franchises have a certain commercial threshold, which is pretty high and shouldn't be dismissed; not just in for the sheer dichotomy of successful or not, but also the many perks that correlate with success.

Most people are hesitant to buy into the popular supporting characters on the basis that DLC just hasn't favored their kind
Uhhh except this pass has been 4/5ths popular supporting characters so far?

Then please tell me the significant gaming history that were used when taking Persona and Bayonetta into account, or why Geno was considered by Sakurai despite Geno himself not having anything beyond popularity. As long as the characters are cool, I'm ok with them, so I fail to see why I'd be disappointed. Also, wasn't the quote you used from the Brawl days? Who knows, Sakurai's gotten significantly loser since then as he's changed his mind on pacifist characters, characters with guns, specific portrayals of characters, etc.
Pacack specifically singled out Bayonetta as an anomaly that can very well be explained through its status as a Nintendo-funded franchise. The discussion is also on a franchise level so I don't think you'll get anywhere arguing that Geno isn't from a historically important franchise (and a first party one at that).
 

Cutie Gwen

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Fortunately "gaming history" is pretty loose anyway. Under the right context you can make a case for just about anything, lmao.
This is what I mean, you can make a case for characters using context, but others can say it doesn't count meaning that gaming history becomes entirely subjective and we've seen countless times that Sakurai doesn't consider it an end all be all. Like, Tower of Druaga, why does that not have it's protagonist Gil playable? Massively beloved in Japan, and without it, we'd have never gotten The Legend of Zelda on the NES.
Pacack specifically singled out Bayonetta as an anomaly that can very well be explained through its status as a Nintendo-funded franchise. The discussion is also on a franchise level so I don't think you'll get anywhere arguing that Geno isn't from a historically important franchise (and a first party one at that).
I just do not agree with saying "Oh that's an exception they don't count" as it implies they'll be the only exception until Sakurai proves us wrong, then Joker becomes the exception, then Terry gets counted as the exception, etc.

I can see what you mean with Geno but I personally disagree, he'd be included solely on his fan demand, not because he's a Mario character riding on Mario's eternal success
 

GoodGrief741

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I just do not agree with saying "Oh that's an exception they don't count" as it implies they'll be the only exception until Sakurai proves us wrong, then Joker becomes the exception, then Terry gets counted as the exception, etc.
Pointing out something is an exception doesn't imply that it won't happen again. It implies that it's less likely to happen. It isn't very reasonable to expect anomalies in equal amount to the norm. Especially when those anomalies are few (in our case, there's two at best in all of Smash history) and easily explained away.

We also tried to use those exceptions to attempt to predict future characters. Bayonetta's (games that Nintendo funds) has led us to a ludicrous amount of franchises that ended up disconfirmed (NMH, TWEWY, Bravely, etc). And I think it's widely accepted that the circumstances that led to Banjo-Kazooie have not yet been replicated. We did the smart thing, we tried new stuff, and it didn't work out this time. It's a bummer but what is there to do?
 
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Cosmic77

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I think everyone is taking this more seriously than Sakurai himself does.

Sakurai doesn't seem to have a hard definition for many of the terms he uses. Does he consider Geno to be historically significant to gaming? Maybe, but considering how this is the same guy that's given us Ice Climbers, Wii Fit Trainer, and Piranha Plant, I think the easiest and most straightforward answer is that he considered Geno at one point simply because he thought it might be cool. I'd imagine that applies to a lot of characters, both those who are on the roster and those who aren't.

Plus, you gotta remember, how likely is it for Sakurai to downplay or belittle any of these characters? Can you honestly see him saying, "I personally don't think this character is historically significant."
 
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GoodGrief741

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Plus, you gotta remember, how likely is it for Sakurai to downplay or belittle any of these characters? Can you honestly see him saying, "I personally don't think this character is historically significant."
That's... kind of the point. If he thinks a character isn't from a historically significant franchise then he won't add them to Smash and we'll probably never hear his opinion of them.
 
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osby

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That's... kind of the point. If he thinks a character isn't from a historically significant franchise then he won't add them to Smash and we'll probably never hear his opinion of them.
I mean, Sakurai is more than the guy who just makes Smash. He routinely writes about the games he plays in his Famitsu cloumn and a lot of them has nothing to do with the games he directs.
 
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Koopaul

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Sakurai is likely to put in fighters based on a variety of different reasons. But Nintendo are the ones deciding the DLC. And I would suspect that for most of them there are ulterior reasons for these picks. Either to strengthen bonds with 3rd parties or to promote a game on the Switch.
 

GoodGrief741

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I mean, Sakurai is more than the guy who just makes Smash. He routinely writes about the games he plays in his Famitsu cloumn and a lot of them has nothing to do with the games he directs.
Still, professional courtesy and cultural mores will probably prevent him from ever saying anything too negative about any game. He's a developer, not a critic or journalist. It's on us to try and guess what games Sakurai might consider significant.
 

N3ON

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Sakurai is likely to put in fighters based on a variety of different reasons. But Nintendo are the ones deciding the DLC. And I would suspect that for most of them there are ulterior reasons for these picks. Either to strengthen bonds with 3rd parties or to promote a game on the Switch.
"Nothing for you KT, you're already under our thumb"
 

Evil Trapezium

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Everyone seems to be dead right now so I'm gonna repost this because I think I did a pretty good job with it. Once you're all awake, come join in and post content of your most wanted character because I have a slight suspicion that E3 is where it's all going to end.

Cortez fighter pack small 2.png


Classic mode

Cortez
Route: Time to Split
Description: Mostly free-for-all matches with opponents that come from different time periods.

Round 1
Stage: Hyrule Castle
Music: Chinese
Cortez fights against Nintendo characters on Hyrule Castle, a stage from the past

Round 2
Stage: Dr Wily's Castle
Music: Anaconda
Cortez fights against Third Party characters on a stage from the future

Round 3
Stage: Luigi's Mansion
Music: Mansion
Cortez fights against 10 Male Wii Fit Trainers who act as Zombies to reference their occurrence in the series

Round 4
Stage: Kalos Pokemon League
Music: Scotland the Brave - Tank Boss
Cortez fights a Giant R.O.B, much like his fight against a giant robot in the later parts of TimeSplitters Future Perfect

Round 5
Stage: Gerudo Valley
Music: Mexican Mission
Cortez now fights against opponents who can also travel through time

Round 6
Stage: Space Station
Music: Space Station
Cortez fights multiple versions of himself referring to the Time paradoxes he creates in the third game

Boss round
Stage: Galleom's Room
Music: TimeSplitters 2 - Main Theme
Cortez fights against Galleom who references Jacob Crow in his final form
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Spirits
If the pictures for the spirits are too small for you, allow me to explain.

Monkey
Character: White Diddy Kong
Minions: White Diddy Kong (x3) (Other Monkeys)
Type: Support
Music: Disco-A-Gogo
Stage: Kongo Falls
Battle standards: Enemy prefers Down Specials, Uncontrollable speeds
Spirit ability: Trade-off Speed ↑
Cores required: 1

Captain Ash
Character: Yellow Dr. Mario
Minions: None
Type: Grab
Music: Scotland the Brave - Tank Boss
Stage: Castle Siege
Battle standards: Only shooting and explosive items will appear, Bob-ombs will rain down, Enemy has increased explosive resistance
Spirit Ability: None
Core Slots: 3

Harry Tipper
Character: Blue Captain Falcon
Minions: Jeff (Assist Trophy)
Type: Shield
Music: Disco-a-Gogo
Stage: Spirit Tracks
Battle Standards: Hostile Assist Trophies will appear, Enemy likes to taunt
Spirit Ability:
Core Slots: 1

Jo-Beth Casey
Character: Red Daisy
Minions: Green Wii Fit Trainer (x3) (Zombies)
Type: Support
Music: Mansion
Stage: Luigi's Mansion
Battle Standards: Reinforcements will appear, defeat the main fighter to win
Spirit Ability: Increased battering damage ↑
Cores Required: 1

Amy Chen
Character: Black Zero Suit Samus
Minions: None
Type: Support
Music: Chinese
Stage: Wrecking Crew
Battle Standards: The enemy occasionally becomes invisible, Only shooting and explosive items will appear
Spirit Ability: Increased Air Dodging time ↑
Cores Required: 1

R-110
Character: Green Samus
Minions: Kappn' (Assist Trophy) Mini Green R.O.B (x3) (Robots)
Type: Neutral
Music: Scrapyard
Stage: Shadow Moses Island
Battle Standards: Hostile Assist Trophies will appear, Reinforcements will appear
Spirit Ability: Metal and Giant
Core Slots: None

Corporal Hart
Character: Red Lucina
Minions: Default Cortez
Type: Attack
Music: SpaceStation
Stage: SpaceStation
Battle Standards: Defeat the main fighter to win, enemy has increased defense, you have decreased defense
Spirit Ability: None
Core Slots: 2

TimeSplitters
Character: Purple Ridley holding a Pokeball containing Tapu Koko (Reaper Splitter)
Minions: White Bowser (Drone Splitter), Purple Dark Samus (Scourge Splitter), Purple Incineroar (Berserker Splitter)
Type: Support
Music: TimeSplitters 2 - Main Theme
Stage: SpaceStation
Battle Standards: The enemy occasionally becomes invisible, you have increased Electricity vulnerability, Only certain Pokemon will appear
Spirit Ability: First-Strike Invisibility (Attack the opponent first to become invisible)
Cores required: 2
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 

Rie Sonomura

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Pointing out something is an exception doesn't imply that it won't happen again. It implies that it's less likely to happen. It isn't very reasonable to expect anomalies in equal amount to the norm. Especially when those anomalies are few (in our case, there's two at best in all of Smash history) and easily explained away.

We also tried to use those exceptions to attempt to predict future characters. Bayonetta's (games that Nintendo funds) has led us to a ludicrous amount of franchises that ended up disconfirmed (NMH, TWEWY, Bravely, etc). And I think it's widely accepted that the circumstances that led to Banjo-Kazooie have not yet been replicated. We did the smart thing, we tried new stuff, and it didn't work out this time. It's a bummer but what is there to do?
TWEWY hasn’t actually been deconfirmed yet tho? No Mii or Spirit Event yet
 

Gnateb

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Dark Souls is pretty iconic, and marketable, but not for it's characters. The name "Dark Souls" is everywhere, to the point where any difficult video games will inevitably have comparisons drawn (hence, the "this is like the Dark Souls of _______" meme). Difficulty in video games and Dark Souls are pretty closely linked, now, at least in discussion.

I'm not sure if that's enough to make up for it's ~28 million series sales, but I hope so. I'm afraid that if a DS character does get in, they'll fall prey to the "people don't play Dark Souls for Chosen Undead!" argument, like Steve.
 
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Gazorpazorpfield

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Dark Souls is pretty iconic, and marketable, but not for it's characters. The name "Dark Souls" is everywhere, to the point where any difficult video games will inevitably have comparisons drawn (hence, the "this is like the Dark Souls of _______" meme). Difficulty in video games and Dark Souls are pretty closely linked, now, at least in discussion.

I'm not sure if that's enough to make up for it's ~28 million series sales, but I hope so. I'm afraid that if a DS character does get in, they'll fall prey to the "people don't play Dark Souls for Chosen Undead!" argument, like Steve.
As long as a character can be used as a proxy for a series' gameplay, they're probably fine IMO. Villager, Game & Watch and Steve are mostly there to do that, aren't they?
 
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