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- Thread starter Tom
- Start date
Trust me. Not much to read LOL
go online chaco
Lmfao. Poor Iggy.Go town
You guys really shouldn't talk about ongoing games in here. Especially if you're playing in them.
He's right, you know.
Dammit, I was counting on law of averages to say I could trust Iggy for once next time, and BIM had to go and ruin that.
law of averages = way to say it in a good light
gamblers fallacy = what it really is
gamblers fallacy = what it really is
Well, it's one thing to say "I doubt they'd be mafia 2/3 times in a row", but it's another to say "I doubt they'd be antitown...." what is it now? Six times in a row?
It's not like I'd rule him out entirely.
It's not like I'd rule him out entirely.
i dont really see how the two are different :[
Omis
my friends were skinny
Darn it I missed Bad Idea. I had been looking forward to that for a month or so now. I am just so unlucky.
Jesus christ I can't believe I have to go this far just to explain myself for a joke.
EDIT: Omis's Unlucky 1?
When something has a slim chance of happening, then happens, then happens again, then again, etc, the odds become stamped down lower and lower so yeah there's a pretty big gap of likelihood between the second time and the sixth or seventh.
EDIT: Omis's Unlucky 1?
Are you saying that if Ignatius is non-town, non-town, non-town, non-town, and non-town, then the next game he plays, he has increased chances of being town?
I wanna be in the next mafia game that starts up in here :X
It's like flipping a coin and getting Heads 10 times in a row. The chances of getting heads on the 11th flip is still 50% no matter what the previous outcomes were.
Since landing any role in any Mafia game should be completely random it's impossible for pass results to influence potential future results.
And yet again I'd like to point to the blatant brevity in the original post that started this discussion before continuing.
Past events don't influence future events in random settings, but the probability of something occuring consecutively still diminishes the more it happens, especially since it's not a coinflip at all. This is high school consumer math.
Past events don't influence future events in random settings, but the probability of something occuring consecutively still diminishes the more it happens, especially since it's not a coinflip at all. This is high school consumer math.
That game show with 3 curtains and a car behind one. And you pick one curtain, and the host tells removes a curtain that the car isn't behind.. blah blah
I'm pretty sure that mathematical riddle has something to do with this conversation.
Probably not tho
I'm pretty sure that mathematical riddle has something to do with this conversation.
Probably not tho
Kirbyoshi
Smash Apprentice
While that may be true, getting heads on one isolated flip is 50%, but getting heads on two flips consecutively is 25%, odds of three heads-es consecutively is 12.5%, four is 6.25%, etc.Omni said:
Right, but that doesn't change the fact that after four heads in a row, the odds that the fifth flip will be heads is still 50%. And if you're playing the fifth mafia game and want to know whether Iggy's scum the odds of that happening are still (# of scum)/(# of players).
Somewhere in there I went from coins to mafia, but I trust you can connect the dots.
Somewhere in there I went from coins to mafia, but I trust you can connect the dots.
i understand that you just said it in passing but i thought it was wrong so i commented on it
and i still think its wrong. the probability of it happening consecutively doesnt matter because previous roles had already been dealt... they have no influence over whether or not he will be town or mafia this time. your math is right, and our math is right, as they are two different but similar situations, but your math isn't the right math for this situation...
right, but it doesn't change the fact that the odds of his getting them consecutively has no affect on the odds of him getting them this game. the odds are against him getting it over and over again, but if he HAS gotten it over and over again, it doesnt change anything about the odds of whether or not he will get it now.
so i guess i will ask my previous question that got skirted: Are you saying that if Ignatius is non-town, non-town, non-town, non-town, and non-town, then the next game he plays, he has increased chances of being town?
because if you are, you're wrong...
edit: you really confused me with the 'consecutive' thing, because while that math is right it doesn't have any affect over whether or not iggy will be mafia or town next game. so its still gamblers fallacy...
10/ 10
Yeah but chill with it.
Nicholas1024
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Mar 14, 2009
- Messages
- 1,075
Heh, you're assuming that it's a fair coin...
EE and PKoH are both right, but they're arguing based on different theoretical context.
As has been stated, independant events performed in succession will have no effect on their own outcomes. It's the definition of an independent event. So debating what the chances of someone being town were having already observed the sequence of events leading up to the event in question, places the debater in a context where Gambler's Fallacy applies. If you already know the past results and are simply discussing the probability of an individual event, then any probabilities associated with it will be the same as if it were performed out of a sequence.
However, if somone were to be predicting what someone's role would be in a sequence of X amount of games played, then what EE says is true. Without knowing what the outcomes of any of the events will be, postulating that it is unlikely for someone to be one alignment 5 times in a row and then switch on the 6th event is accurate.
So yeah, it just depends what you're assuming about one's knowledge of the situation, or what specific probability is being discussed.
As has been stated, independant events performed in succession will have no effect on their own outcomes. It's the definition of an independent event. So debating what the chances of someone being town were having already observed the sequence of events leading up to the event in question, places the debater in a context where Gambler's Fallacy applies. If you already know the past results and are simply discussing the probability of an individual event, then any probabilities associated with it will be the same as if it were performed out of a sequence.
However, if somone were to be predicting what someone's role would be in a sequence of X amount of games played, then what EE says is true. Without knowing what the outcomes of any of the events will be, postulating that it is unlikely for someone to be one alignment 5 times in a row and then switch on the 6th event is accurate.
So yeah, it just depends what you're assuming about one's knowledge of the situation, or what specific probability is being discussed.
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Nicholas1024
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Mar 14, 2009
- Messages
- 1,075
So, what's the decision? Does it work well?
it looks cool but not cool enough to warrant a global switch :[
more aimchat mafia plox
and tom, i think the font is pretty ill.
too big tho, which could make yu come off as obnoxious
and tom, i think the font is pretty ill.
too big tho, which could make yu come off as obnoxious
chaco aim
Kirbyoshi
Smash Apprentice
Needs Comic Sans MS imo.
Aimchat Mafia = amazing.
Man shut the **** up.
You have no idea the grievous punishments you'll receive for suggesting anything other then verdana.
So dar we have accomplished very little today we need to go and scumhunt.
Okay guys, if we ever want to play AIM mafia with us, just join AIM chat SWFmafia. we might be in there playing, or at least, when we play, we are going to play in that room now.
yea and its an infinite times better than epic mafia. since its not just massclaim and see what happens. good games today
Nicholas1024
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Mar 14, 2009
- Messages
- 1,075
I wonder if anyone would be able to start diplomacy back up. I looked up the rules, and it looks interesting...