Well, this is a weird turn of events. If Vergeben's source is accurate, then basically 99% of available options are (temporarily) out of the running. Who would even be left? An indie character who isn't a spirit yet, like Quote or the Knight?
That said, he's had faulty sources a few times in the past, so this may be another example. Back before the February Direct he said the long-rumored Star Fox: Grand Prix was going to show up, and it never did. I don't think he'd deliberately try to troll anyone, but it's possible he's mistaken or even been deceived.
That's another possiblity: the source could've been mistaken about which company a certain IP belonged to. For example, if Fighter #5 is, say, Euden from Dragalia Lost, they might've believed it was a Cygames franchise when it's actually a Nintendo-owned one they collaborated
with Cygames to make.
Has anyone notable expressed skepticism toward it, or is it just community members in general? The latter tells us nothing, but the former might.
Meanwhile, this whole situation might've just become even
more complicated:
There was a problem fetching the tweet
Fighter #5 might not show up at The Game Awards at all. Well, if that does come to pass and we're left waiting for a January Direct or something, that'd at least raise the chances of them ending with another under-the-radar pick.