So I've been collecting data by recording end times of tournament matches. They've all basically been about the same.
Here's the latest tournament results from whatever tournament dabuz just won where will got second:
Their 2 stock 6 minute matches took on average 2.7 minutes. That's 1.35 minutes per stock. 3 stock 8 minute matches collected in my data take on average 1.4 minutes per stock. That is a .05 difference. My other 2 stock recordings also took around 1.4 min per stock. For those who don't want to do math, It's 81 seconds (2 stock games at latest tournament) vs 84 seconds (3 stock games from others) per stock. With 6 and 8 minute timers.
The data set is pretty limited on both and both have outliers, but ~1.4 minutes per stock is the average. 4.5 minutes is enough to finish the majority of games with an 8 minute timer.
Of the last custom tournament I saw (dabuz won, will second), 3 games on stream were at or above the 4.5 minutes spent mark within their 6 minute timer:
Olimar vs. Diddy
Villager vs Diddy
Villager vs Diddy
Sheik vs. Olimar was close, as was another Diddy vs. Villager.
This is obviously matchup and player dependent, especially since the villager, olimar, and two diddys were played by a total of 4 players. >_>
The fastest common time people lose a stock is .75 minutes per stock (1.5 min for whole 2 stock game). There is a linear trend going up from this point and only 5 of the 50 matches were finished below that time.
With the 1.4 min per stock average, one game hit 2.8 on the button. 21 were above that time, 29 were below.
For 2 stock matches, after the linear trend starts upwards it continues steadily until you hit around 5 minutes. As expected, once there is a minute left on the clock time is increased dramatically -- everyone camps with 1:00 left on the clock. That's the magic number.
For 3 stock matches 8 minute matches, 1:00 left on the clock is STILL the magic number. This makes sense, as at this point both players still likely have one stock so it is basically the same situation as 2 stock games. You can't suddenly start camping earlier with more stock and time.
What does this mean?
First of all, run 3 stock 8 minutes. Seriously, the worst case scenario is it adds 6 minutes per wave. If every single game went to time per wave, the guy waiting in grand finals of a 5 wave bracket (standard 32 man) has added a grand total of 36 minutes to his set. That is the *worst case scenario*. This does not happen ever.
Given the average 1.35 per stock, if the 2 stock with customs event happened with 3 stock and we added 1.35 seconds per stock, it would have added a grand total of about an hour for the 50 streamed matches. An -hour-, for the entire tournament.
Second, knowing that 1 minute left on the clock is the time when people suddenly start camping... if we had a 5 minute timer a total of 3 matches simply would have been timeouts and 5 would have been in that danger zone +/- 10 seconds. Another 6 would have been within 30 seconds of the zone.
With a 5 minute timer, we should see a 15% increase of games that either time out or go to time.
But seriously, do 3 stock. Virtually every 2 stock game goes to last stock for both players and the winner is determined by whoever took the first stock unless the advantage player loses his high % stock within 15 seconds.
TL;DR:
It takes 1.4 min per stock on average. A 2 stock match takes 2.8 min, 3 stock match takes 3.6 min. A full tournament adds about an hour in length for 3 stock 8 minutes. Most 2 stock games go to last stock and whoever takes the first stock wins, unless they lose their stock within 15 seconds of taking their opponents first stock.