Before I get into the set, some background on Leo vs. sparg0: since Mainstage 2021, Leo has only beaten sparg0 when sparg0 didn't anticipate Leo's character choice in advance. Sets Leo has won since then:
- SWT 2021 - Leo used Aegis, which sparg0 was very underprepared for (see also his loss to Cosmos)
- RETA -- used Corrin for the first time and beat sparg0. Note that Gluto also lost to Leo's Corrin here, but Leo never used Corrin against Gluto again because they played friendlies after the tournament and Leo thought the matchup was "impossible" once Gluto learned it
- Genesis 8 -- Leo used Byleth, after making sparg0 expect the Corrin
- Major Upset -- Leo used Aegis unexpectedly, but sparg0 learned the MU and won it in Grands.
- Crown the Third -- Leo used Joker unexpectedly
Sets sparg0 won since then:
- Mainstage first set - expected the Byleth.
- Summit 4 - expected the Byleth
- Collision - expected the Byleth
- Major Upset - after adjusting to the Aegis
- Smash Factor X - expected the Joker
So to really understand Leo vs. sparg0, you have to understand that sparg0 is just fundamentally better at studying their games than Leo, and always has extra adaptation reserved in the tank for mid-set compared to Leo.
We'll have to take a look at the Crown set and then dive into their Smash Factor set to really understand how that prep and adaptation came into play.
Here's the link to their Crown set.
Looking at their Crown set, games 3-4, let's go over what won Leo the games vs. Cloud. Of course, you have the two surface-level observations that everyone makes, the edgeguarding on Cloud's high recovery and the Rebel's Guard held firmly in front of sparg0's aggression, but let's go a bit deeper. These are the three things that I saw win the set:
1. Short hop Gun. The first thing you'll notice is that sparg0 is trying to whiff punish Leo's approaches with pivot Cross Slash, as well as space b-airs on Joker's shield. Neither of these tactics work very well. The reason is pretty much Gun. The Gun mixup at 7:58 is the first crack in this strategy, and it proves effective for the duration of the two games. Gun interrupts Cloud during both his jump and Cross Slash animations, and leaves Joker in an advantaged position. At 8:01, it leads to Leo getting a free n-air that almost costs sparg0 the stock from dragdown f-air1 f-smash. At 10:05 you'll see another example of Gun interrupting sparg0's chosen strategy.
2. Joker's insane hurtbox, allowing for precise whiff punishes on Cloud f-air such as 9:15. Joker tucks his legs behind him when he jumps -- with non-retreating jumps, his hurtbox is like a tiny Kirby-sized ball, so he can cleanly whiff punish huge sword aerials with a f-air1 and find kills. Joker's hurtbox also allows Leo to go for plays like the one at 9:23, where he n-airs in response to Cross Slash, lands, shields, and grabs on reaction to the spotdodge.
3. Cloud's difficulty landing against Joker. sparg0 is used to drifting in toward the middle of the stage in most matchups, especially on PS2, but in this MU it's very hard. Regardless of Cloud's aerial mobility, his big lingering hitboxes in up-air and d-air are very vulnerable to Rebel's Guard, so he has to be careful when drifting down. You can see how Leo gets the kill soon after 9:23, abusing this difficulty with quick Joker up-airs and the wait on the platform to Rebel's Guard the Cloud up-air and finish sparg0.
Now let's take a look at their Smash Factor set with these few things in mind.
In game 1, you'll notice a major change in sparg0's gameplay in that he uses more shield; he up-bs Joker n-airs on reaction so that Leo is encouraged to use Joker's dash grab, and then punishes whiffed grabs using Cross Slash or b-air. This overall strategy works pretty well compared to the last attempt. Joker has a hard time punishing up-b out of shield. Even though Leo consistently SDIs the up-b to get out of it, Joker can't land in time to reversal sparg0 because Joker doesn't have the hitboxes that you have with Corrin or Byleth. sparg0 realized this from the last set and so you'll see him mix in quite a bit of shield. In fact, that is his overarching strategy in the set, to dash in and shield against Joker aerials.
But actually, it works even better than it should because of what Leo himself is doing. In game 1, as well as the whole set, Leo is doing something highly unusual, both for the matchup and for the situations they find themselves in: he's using a lot of dash attacks and d-tilts. Right at the beginning of the match, at 0:24, Leo runs in to dash attack a shielding sparg0. This decision is quite strange. Here, Leo might not have expected shield, but even if he didn't, this was a weird moment to dash attack and try to whiff punish a Cloud b-air. sparg0 showed absolutely no indication of vulnerability and the spacing was not quite right for it. Leo seems to be trying to whiff punish Cloud more actively than in the last set as a sort of preemptive counter-adaptation, and to play faster in general, but it has mixed results and clearly loses him the first game. At 3:50, game 1 ends the same way it began -- an overzealous dash attack into a shield.
sparg0's use of shield coupled with Leo's failed, aggressive attempts to whiff punish are costing him the set.
sparg0 maintains his strategy in game 2. At the start, 4:46, Leo starts his short hop Gun strat, but sparg0 doesn't give up the jump and doesn't enter into any Cross Slash animations like he did at the Crown set. Instead, sparg0 patiently waits, charges Limit, and dashes in to shield. Leo once again tries to aerial Cloud's shield, but it doesn't matter how safe Joker's aerials are, Cloud up-b is still quite strong against them. So Leo gets up-b'd and starts off on the back foot yet again.
The overzealous dash attacking into shields is still happening, as you can see at 5:21. You have to use deep sinking, delayed b-airs to really even hope to do something here, and mix in tomahawks, and even then you might get up-bed. If Leo doesn't start mixing up his aerials with other options, he's toast.
You'll also notice sparg0's increased use of up-b in general. He uses it to get to ledge from high since Joker has trouble punishing it, he uses it to interrupt Joker's strings (at 7:08, for example), and he uses it in several scramble situations. This is his answer to Joker's hurtbox. Cloud up-b is quite big, and Joker's hitboxes are quite small.
As we see at 7:40, Joker's hurtbox is still as strong as ever though and combined with some smooth movement it does allow Leo to get the second stock (cool clip).
In this game 2, Leo does some interesting ledge trump into no followup to condition sparg0 into a neutral getup that allows Leo to finish the game using Arsense d-smash, but it isn't particularly noteworthy since it only happens in this one game and doesn't have any conditioning followups in games 3 and 4. It doesn't seem like Leo thought through this particular conditioning situation in advance. It probably happened on the fly and then didn't lead to anything after this game.
The overall pattern of the set continues. sparg0 uses a lot of shield, and Leo uses a lot of d-tilt and dash attack. Leo never really finds a conditioning game though for these two moves to give him a consistent edge. sparg0 has realized that Joker can't punish certain spacings of b-air no matter what, so sparg0 just inputs an option immediately after every b-air in a compromising position based on what Leo is most likely to go for. For example, at 9:57, Leo gets a parry on the b-air and tries to follow it up with dash grab (frame 8), but sparg0 spotdodges immediately and punishes instead.
The main adaptation as the set goes on comes from sparg0 rather than Leo. Once Leo sees that burst options aren't working and that sparg0 isn't jumping, he tries fadebacks with Gun, but sparg0 starts dash attacking, and that basically seals the set. For example, the dash attack kill at 10:13 is in response to Leo trying to keep sparg0 cornered with Gun. It's a reversal out of corner disadvantage that leads to the stock, and its foundation was laid in the beginning with sparg0's use of shield conditioning defensive play from Leo. sparg0 is clearly the one with the conditioning gameplan here, and Leo has nothing.
It's pretty much a wash, even if individual games looked close at times. Leo had no clear answer to sparg0's shielding and was overly reliant on dash attack and d-tilt, and once sparg0 mixed up the shield with burst dash attacks to seal stocks, the set was decided. Incredibly one-sided.
