Now that the 2022 meta has come to a conclusion, and now that the first month of 2023 has concluded with two large events (LMBM and Genesis), I want to fire up some discussion on some thoughts on several characters, how they fit in the meta and their overall standing relative to the cast.
Feel free to add-on or talk more about the characters below, since the point about this post is to instigate more discussion about specific characters, since I feel that the thread is overall too reliant on talking about what happens during each weekend major event to instigate discussion.
Avoid talking more about Pikachu though, since enough has been said about this character by now for this thread. lol
2022 hasn't boosted the meta perception of anyone more than Steve, a character that started off as an upper mid/lower high tier at launch, but developed into a serious best character contender thanks to 2022's developments. The character has by far the largest amount of players at high level than anyone else, with only characters like Palutena, Aegis, ROB, and Snake coming close. Interestingly, this is largely from United States representation alone, as the character doesn't have that much high level representation outside of USA.
That being said, his meta has weirdly stabilized? It is quite clear now that acola is head-over-heels way above every other Steve player (and most players in general given how well he plays other characters too). Onin, despite his incredible placements mid-2022, kinda hit a speed bump towards the end of 2022. The other Steve players like Jake and Quandale continues to place well, but whether or not they place past top 12 and sometimes top 32 is very much a toss-up. With acola's losses at Genesis, and Steve players mostly focusing on his incredible normals and stable playstyle, instead of focusing on newly found extremely niche tech, his incredible meta progression of 2022 seems to have slowed down significantly going into the new year. The character, which seemed to go in a pace that would make him seem unstoppable, now has clear holes in his gameplay, matchups, and overall progression. He is still an incredible character, but it seems that the game continues to have an unclear view on who is the undisputed best.
Remember when this character was considered borderline low tier all throughout the first year of Ultimate? Interesting times those were.
Thanks to the incredible results of Sonix, as well as being pushed thanks to the pure theory of his gameplan (even though he had said gameplan since Brawl), perception on this character is on all time high. Many are projecting him to be a potential top 10, even top 5 character, which would make him higher in tier placing (relative to the cast) than his SSB4 counterpart, despite being overall nerfed from that game.
Personally not quite sure if I completely buy this prospect considering that it is mainly only Sonix that is pushing the character this far (KEN also does, but not quite at the same level, plus he co-mains him now with Sephiroth), but it is interesting to see how far this character has gone since the early days.
Wolf is in a bit of a bizarre state in the current meta. He is once again a character that sees high levels of representation in especially the mid-to-low levels. However, in comparison to Steve, ROB, Palutena, and Snake, all characters that are popular in all levels of play with their best players (acola/Onin, Zomba/Anathema/BigBoss, Chag, ApolloKage) obtaining amazing consistent high level success, Wolf's success in the highest levels of play is fairly inconsistent in comparison.
We have Ouch!? and Jakal as the main high level representatives of the character. While these two players have occasionally performed excellent in tournaments with upsets to boot, whether this happens is fairly inconsistent and these two don't always participate that often. In tournaments where these two don't participate in and/or don't do their sicko tournament runs, Wolf doesn't really have much in terms of notable success at high level. There is Oryon and Atelier (the latter of which co-mains him with PkMn Trainer), but it all still falls noticeably behind the other above-mentioned characters.
In other words, while Wolf continues to obtain great success in all levels of play, he is not really a character anymore that you point out all the time as an incredibly consistent high level placer.
is kind of in the same boat as Wolf, but in an even more awkward state. Still a very good character.
Both Pikachu and Shulk, very popular perception-wise pre-quarantine thanks to the vast potential of these characters, have unfortunately taken a significant fall in both tournament presence and overall perception going into the 2022 meta.
For Pikachu, after ESAM's incredible victory at Glitch 8.5 in the second-half of 2021, Pikachu has taken a large back seat throughout the rest of the post-quarantine era. ESAM himself has unfortunately not performed all that great in most major tournaments. His transition to using the BOX controller scheme and picking up Mii Brawler as a secondary, has unfortunately not paided off so far, although it may potentially change in the future if he continues to dedicate his time into these changes. As of right now, ShinyMark, followed by closely Neeroz, are the current champions of the character. ShinyMark's tournament performance at Smash Factor 9 is particularly impressive. However, their placements are still rather inconsistent and not that numerous outside of their own region (also, still falling much behind relative to other top 20/25 characters).
The general meta as a whole has became less kind to the character as well, as the extremely inconsistent explosiveness of the character is falling behind in favor of characters with easier access to their explosiveness, better ranged gameplay, and less need to play perfectly to gain access to their win conditions.
For Shulk, it is a more unfortunate case, as Shulk during quarantine and at the start of post-quarantine very good with Kome getting consistent top placings in high level Japanese tournaments. Unfortunately going into a lot of 2022, Kome's results started to trail off, getting major Japanese top 8s less consistently. His results are still good mind you, but it isn't that great when considering that he is pretty much main herald of Shulk results now with Nicko now being semi-active. jaredisking1 has put on quite a show lately, which is pretty cool for the character. However overall, the character both results and meta-wise has fallen behind in comparison to characters within the top 20/25, to the point where a lot of players considers him high tier now.
The current Ultimate environment is in no shortage of powerful sword characters, with Roy and Lucina remaining great, Aegis being introduced as a versatile sword character, and the rise of Cloud in all levels of play. Shulk with his poor frame data, approach, and disadvantage (if Shield Art is on cooldown) is a character that is overall too reliant on keeping the opponent in disadvantage, where he truly shines.
These two stalwarts from Fighter's Pass 1 are both in a rather uncomfortable position in the current metagame. These two, especially Byleth, has obtained incredible results thanks to MkLeo and Riddles, respectively, but both are very reliant on these players for essentially 95% of their relevant results.
For Byleth, MkLeo is recently starting to shift back to his old main in Joker, with Aegis to cover his problematic matchups. While this development is incredible for Joker's meta, and we are already seeing the fruits of this in his recent major placings, this is unfortunately really bad for Byleth's meta. While Leo did briefly use Byleth for MuteAce at the start of their sets, it didn't really work and Joker was used to ultimately beat him in grand finals. Outside of Leo, Byleth has a low overall playerbase, especially at high levels of play. If MkLeo is truly focusing away from Byleth going into the rest of 2023, then that will definitely be a huge blow to Byleth's meta and overall results.
Terry is another character that sees very little representation outside of his best player, as there are barely any high level representatives of the character and they don't perform to anywhere close what Riddles has done with the character in the past. As such, Riddles' focus to primarily Kazuya ever since his incredible win at The Big House has been quite a huge blow to Terry's metagame.
Sheik is also at a weird spot where her overall theory is definitely higher perception-wise than her current results and representation. The overall theory is that she is potentially an upper high tier, even top tier character thanks to her incredible neutral game, which she will always have thanks to her overall toolkit and attributes. However, she is weird in the fact that most of her results are international results, primarily from Japan. Eim is the character's current champion, with Mr.R's recent focus on primarily Sheik aiding him quite a bit in catching up. However even with the international contributions, the character is definitely still not performing at the heights of what her theory suggests.
That being said, with low overall results in both major and North American events, it is hard to gauge how good she is relative to other high tiers like Sephiroth, Shotos, Falco, Bayo, etc.
While there are some very notable Luigi players stepping up to the plate, rising up in results, and hold up the green plumber's overall placing the meta, such players being the likes of Luugi and WaKa to name the main two, the character definitely took a serious blow after Elegant's ban, who provided incredible results for the character with a series of top 6 placings at a few majors in a row late 2021. Even back in SSB4, Elegant carried the entire character's meta behind him, so without him, the character will suffer as a result.
Still considered pretty good, especially thanks to the aforementioned rise of the other players, but with the rise of characters like Corrin, Bayo, Mega Man, and Sora, characters also usually put in the borderline tier area, Luigi's meta prospects will look worse no matter which way you look at it.
Rosalina is a weird one. With incredible amounts of tech and Dabuz getting a large amount of notable wins for the character, the character has quite a bit going for her. However, Dabuz is not a solo Rosalina player, such a tri-main with her alongside Min Min and Olimar. Outside of him, there is also extremally minimal Rosalina representation, especially at high level. Homika does decently well, but that is it. The influx of great Japanese Rosalinas have also taken a hit, with Kirihara dropping her for Sheik and yuzu now dual-maining her with Min Min.
As such, I honestly have no idea idea how good Rosalina is.
Minor thing, but I do like to point out that in the UltRank 2022 has three Young Link players in it, but none is ranked within the top 60. In the meantime, Sigma's Toon Link placed 44th in the rankings, outplacing them all considerably. Not really huge in terms of their overall tier or meta placement, but it does show that Young Link's result have stabilized considerably.
MK is another odd one when looking at the UltRank 2022, as there has two notable representatives of the character in Abadango and Yei, at 49th and 85th, respectively. However, Meta Knight is only one of many characters they use in their roster, with Abadango is noted to use Palutena, Samus, and Pikachu, while Yei is noted to use Palutena, Byleth, and Sephiroth. Abadango as of late is primiarly using Palutena and Samus in his tournament runs as well. In other words: what tier is this character is exactly? He feels like both mid and low tier at the same time.
Hero, after reaching an all-time high in terms of high levels results in late 2021, thanks to Akakikusu, has taken a bit of a back seat in 2022. Similar to Shulk, the Japanese sensational is Hero's only real source of high level results, as the character's representation and results are very lacking outside of him. Unfortunately for the character, Akakikusu's is unable to replicate his late 2021 success throughout 2022, with major results as inconsistent as the character he plays, and generally unable to reach his earlier peaks. Sadly since he, again, is Hero's only real source of high level results, Hero's overall presence on the meta takes a notable blow for this as a result, which is combined with other mid tiers beginning to advance past him.
Akakikusu still places fairly well, but Hero's entire metagame continues to ride on the back of him alone. Hero in the end isn't really designed with being a competitive metagame stalwart in mind, perhaps for the better.
Poor Link is all I have to say. While fellow early meta top tier Ike took the blow of the meta's new harshness earlier in the post-quarantine era, Link definitely felt these effects all throughout 2022. T transitioning to perform only in smaller scale tournaments, and not doing too well in the major tournaments he does go in, hurts Link's results and overall metagame perception significantly. RaZe is arguably the character's best placing player right now, but even then, it is not great enough to stop the character's metagame from hitting the lowest he has been since the game came out.
Still a very solid character, but with the significant drop in his metagame presence and the advancements of other characters, some of which where formerly mid tier, regaining high tier status has became a goal further and further out of reach for Link as time goes on.
What happened to this character? Wii Fit Trainer was performing decently well throughout the earlier to even mid portions of the post-quarantine era. Even if the results is reminiscent of a mid tier character, she was still showing some good promise. Then suddenly, she just kinda vanished. Her best players have started to participate a bit less often and started to perform worse in major tournaments.
In my eyes, Wii Fit Trainer HATES the current meta trends. She is always a character with a fundamentally flawed moveset with some of the most awkward hitboxes known to mankind, a lot of them requiring to be virtually inside of the opponent to land. They are hitboxes that enables unique gimmicks, but it ultimately hurts her in comparison to a normal character. She hates that spacing characters (such as swordies) or zone-breaking characters have become more popular in the metagame, and hates that prominence of stronger set-up characters such as Steve or Pac-Man in the metagame as well.
Here it is: the most awkward group of characters in the current metagame. These are the ones that rose a lot in metagame presence in 2022, but is largely carried by one single player.
Sora, the character you are still likely in disbelief that he came out at the after the rest of FP2's metagame monsters, is really enjoying the incredible placements Kameme is showing with the character. Sora is the most interesting one of the group in that he is clearly better than the other three listed (even before Kameme), but still falls in the same category. Kameme showed amazing proficiency in utilizing all of Sora's tools to fight against in each matchup thrown against him, even the ones seen as tough for Sora (well except for Light's Fox lol). However, as I eluded to in an earlier post:
Kameme is singlehandely carrying the character's results, with his other players not being very numerous, as well as not performing all that great in tournaments (especially major ones). The above chart from OrionRank shows that Sora has the second-highest gap between the #1 and #2 best player. This suggests that while maybe the character is initially underestimated (since the character was initially seen as mid tier-at-best), it can be largely attributed to Kameme being an amazing player and not Sora being some hidden top tier/upper end of high tier (afterall, he is the man who got 2nd at EVO 2016 with solo SSB4 Mega Man), at least as of right now. Kameme continues to perform excellently in tournaments with solo Sora (most of the time), but time will tell if others can catch up or the character remains a one-man crew.
While Big D's Ice Climbers has been known for a while in 2022, he popped off in results for the character during the second-half of 2022. Ice Climbers is a unique case in the fact that the character does actually have a decent amount reps in Japan, although their results there are only decent-at-best. At the end, Big D still singlehandely holds most of Ice Climber's competitive success, especially at high level. However, the character is also infamous for not only being an uncommon character that can malfunction at any second, but also being the game's ultimate matchup check character. It is hard to prepare for good Ice Climbers, and even so, you only really have Big D to worry about in bracket. But if you are unprepared when you do run into Big D, he will win, simple as that (unless the matchup is really that bad for ICs).
Both Incineroar and Jigglypuff are both old news at this point: Skyjay and BassMage are amazing players that has spearheaded the metagame of otherwise very mediocre characters. That being said, which these two still performs very well at even high level events, their explosive results have somewhat calmed down as of late. Skyjay doesn't go to many major events anymore, largely performing at regional Mexico events, while BassMage is now one of the most prolific major tournament players. However the story is similar: both, especially BassMage, are running into very difficult walls in bracket regardless of skill difference, and thus isn't performing as high as their skillset otherwise would say. This is definitely making myself leaning towards them being amazing players with lesser used characters, than the strength of the characters themselves. Even with Skyjay and BassMage pouring results into the character, it still remains very low relative to most of the cast, especially in Puff's case, so the situation is still iffy for the both of them.
K. Rool and Gunner are in similar boats as the above group, but even with their amazing best player carrying the boatload of the results, that being KirbyKid and Capitancito respectively, their overall results are still pretty low with inconsistent placings at larger events. Similar to Big D and BassMage, KirbyKid still ends up losing certain sets despite his overall skill level, due to the glaring weaknesses of K. Rool. In the meantime for Gunner, the character narrowly beats out Sora for the highest gap between the #1 and #2 player, but even with the gap, the overall results put together is still very low.
In other words even when pushed to their seemingly peak limit, both of these characters still run into glaring problems in bracket. K. Rool is the amalgamation of all the issues super-heavies typically suffer from, while also having poor mobility. Gunner is strong when it meets its win condition (ledgetrapping), but when not ledgetrapping, Gunner is a slow sack of bricks with poor frame data and falls completely apart when pressured.
That is all the characters I want to talk about for now. Feel free to reply and lend your thoughts about the characters discussed above (or any character for that matter). Again, the purpose of this post is to fire up some character discussion and provide an analysis on how the 2022 meta has affected them. This post mostly covers characters that have sort of stabilized, in a weird state, or has fallen off in the meta from 2022, but I am willing to talk about the huge winners of 2022, such as Cloud, Mario, Kazuya, Samus, Bayonetta, Corrin, etc.