Official Competitive Character Impressions 2.0

[Hydreigonfan01]

My comment was meant in jest, though you raise some interesting questions about why and how the dev team determines balance adjustments. In the case of Rob, I definitely agree that the character is very good, though I'm curious how many major tournaments he's won.

AFAIK the only supermajor ROB has won was The Big House 9. If we go to the A tiers then that counts EGS Cup 3. Both were from Zackray.

 

[Thinkaman]

My comment was meant in jest, though you raise some interesting questions about why and how the dev team determines balance adjustments. In the case of Rob, I definitely agree that the character is very good, though I'm curious how many major tournaments he's won. I see him doing consistently well overall, but he's never made headlines in the same way Joker, Pikachu and the Aegis have. That's not to say that he's inferior to them per se, but ROB has managed to slip under the radar a bit better them. Could that be a reason why he hasn't seen any nerfs? So far, the only characters to really get meaningful nerfs have been the ones that have demonstrated heavy dominance. Min Min and Joker are two of the most obvious examples. If you look at the online winrates, just about every character is leveling close to 50%, hence why the balance patches have become increasingly hands off. It just makes me wonder exactly how the dev team is deciding balances. Is it online results with the occasional pro tournament nod, or is it something more or less arbitrary?

The balance has been pretty heavily top-heavy.

The initial set of 5 characters nerfed in mid-2019 were 5-for-5 the top 5 of Reddit's community tier list at the time. They have shown a willingness to nerf characters like Peach, ZSS, and Wario who only really thrive in top 100 play and perform almost poorly according to more general metrics.

I think it was the Min Min patch that had 20 buffed characters, with a 95% overlap with underused-with-lowest-tournament-results. I posted a chart showing the overlap.

Sonic and Ness are clear exceptions-that-prove-the-rule. Both have always been extremely overused at lower levels/online (two of the highest usage characters) and exhibit infamously poor win-rates despite being great at top level. They both got a jumble of casual-focused buffs (Ness u-throw anyone?) as if the balance team was playing a game of Operation to see how much they could buff a character without helping Gackt or KEN.


If this game was being balanced based on 90th percentile play, you'd see Bowser/Ness/DK nerfs and Peach/Olimar/Joker buffs.

If this game was being balanced based on 99th percentile play, you'd see Snake/DDD/Terry nerfs and Chrom/MK/DH buffs.

In either case, you are more likely to see Aegis buffed than nerfed, and Banjo nerfed than buffed. Puff would be more likely to be nerfed than Pikachu or Shulk, and Yoshi over G&W. ZSS and Wario would never have been nerfed, and probably not Joker.

The only thing all these upper levels more or less agree on is that Palu and ROB are amazing, and maybe Min Min. No idea how far down you'd have to go before they start to fall off.

 

[Firox]

The balance has been pretty heavily top-heavy.

The initial set of 5 characters nerfed in mid-2019 were 5-for-5 the top 5 of Reddit's community tier list at the time. They have shown a willingness to nerf characters like Peach, ZSS, and Wario who only really thrive in top 100 play and perform almost poorly according to more general metrics.

I think it was the Min Min patch that had 20 buffed characters, with a 95% overlap with underused-with-lowest-tournament-results. I posted a chart showing the overlap.

Sonic and Ness are clear exceptions-that-prove-the-rule. Both have always been extremely overused at lower levels/online (two of the highest usage characters) and exhibit infamously poor win-rates despite being great at top level. They both got a jumble of casual-focused buffs (Ness u-throw anyone?) as if the balance team was playing a game of Operation to see how much they could buff a character without helping Gackt or KEN.


If this game was being balanced based on 90th percentile play, you'd see Bowser/Ness/DK nerfs and Peach/Olimar/Joker buffs.

If this game was being balanced based on 99th percentile play, you'd see Snake/DDD/Terry nerfs and Chrom/MK/DH buffs.

In either case, you are more likely to see Aegis buffed than nerfed, and Banjo nerfed than buffed. Puff would be more likely to be nerfed than Pikachu or Shulk, and Yoshi over G&W. ZSS and Wario would never have been nerfed, and probably not Joker.

The only thing all these upper levels more or less agree on is that Palu and ROB are amazing, and maybe Min Min. No idea how far down you'd have to go before they start to fall off.

Hmmmm, this leads me to believe that my hunch was correct. That is, aside from extremely high visibility pro tournaments, a lot of the adjustments are pretty much arbitrary on the part of the devs. Or rather, they pick and choose from a combination of competitive perception and statistical outliers without any defined parameters for either.

 

[Minordeth]

Hmmmm, this leads me to believe that my hunch was correct. That is, aside from extremely high visibility pro tournaments, a lot of the adjustments are pretty much arbitrary on the part of the devs. Or rather, they pick and choose from a combination of competitive perception and statistical outliers without any defined parameters for either.

I'm... legitimately surprised you got this from Thinkaman's post.

Because this:

The initial set of 5 characters nerfed in mid-2019 were 5-for-5 the top 5 of Reddit's community tier list at the time. They have shown a willingness to nerf characters like Peach, ZSS, and Wario who only really thrive in top 100 play and perform almost poorly according to more general metrics.

I think it was the Min Min patch that had 20 buffed characters, with a 95% overlap with underused-with-lowest-tournament-results. I posted a chart showing the overlap.

all but spells out that there are "defined parameters," even if they aren't explicitly giving us a tour behind the curtain.

---

On a partially related note, as I just watched Skyjay vs Esam, but Thinkaman , how could Incineroar be tweaked without making him oppressive?

I mentally place him into a spot similar to Ridley - on that thin line between regionally competitive and nationally competitive. Ridley, perhaps, has enjoyed more prominence with Nair's set off Spargo's Aegis and Mezcaul taking out Larry Lurr, Istudying, and Sisqui at Temple. Without a judicious balance team, Ridley could easily (and accidentally) be made into an actual final boss.

Looking at Skyjay's set with Esam, in game 1, Skyjay was actually up three stocks to Esam's one. Esam managed to get an early KO on Skyjay due to the latter's decision to jump from ledge rather than roll on. My guess it that he wanted jump dair to threaten Esam's recovery. I wonder how much closer it would have been had the player-skill gap not been quite as large.

 

[Firox]

I'm... legitimately surprised you got this from Thinkaman's post.

Because this:

all but spells out that there are "defined parameters," even if they aren't explicitly giving us a tour behind the curtain.

Your concept of "defined parameters" based on one set of perceived top tiers getting nerfed is an assumption. True, there have been a couple instances of tournament winning characters getting nerfed, and this coincides with my point that the devs DO pay some attention to that, however, there have also been several instances of lower tier characters getting nerfed and upper tier characters getting inexplicably buffed that makes it dubious to claim the parameters are cut and dry. Regardless of a tour behind the curtain, who's to say that their parameters aren't exactly what I said: a combination of competitive perception and statistical outliers with a little bit of personal whim in between. I'm not saying there AREN'T parameters, but if you also noticed in Thinkaman's post,

If this game was being balanced based on 90th percentile play, you'd see Bowser/Ness/DK nerfs and Peach/Olimar/Joker buffs.

If this game was being balanced based on 99th percentile play, you'd see Snake/DDD/Terry nerfs and Chrom/MK/DH buffs.

In either case, you are more likely to see Aegis buffed than nerfed, and Banjo nerfed than buffed. Puff would be more likely to be nerfed than Pikachu or Shulk, and Yoshi over G&W. ZSS and Wario would never have been nerfed, and probably not Joker.

Meaning that some balance changes make zero sense from a competitive standpoint, while the example of the earlier patches does. There's no definitive pattern, hence the parameters show no proof of being defined.

 

[Rizen]

That is kinda deceptive, because as you said, Leo only used them as a secondary. He only really used them once or twice per tournament (in the case for Riptide, he only used them at pools), while his Byleth was front-and-center almost the entire time.

It is mainly Sparg0 and Cosmos that is pushing their top level results, and even then, it can get a bit dicey in terms of consistency. This can be seen with Riptide where Cosmos fell very early, while Sparg0 is the main force of the Aegis that tourney but he also used quite a bit of Cloud as well.

There's nothing deceptive about what I said; Leo used them as secondaries. That's how Orion rank counts them. And that was only two tournaments. Leo got 2nd at Summit with them and has won other tournaments:

Add getting 2nd in Proving Grounds with partial Pyra/Mythra to the growing list of their accomplishments in this short time. Tell me if I missed any. So far we've got MKLeo getting 2nd at the Mexican Regional Qualifiers with partial PM and first going all them for frame perfect series. Spargo going full PM to win a Juice box, partial PM to win another and Collision and Shuton using mostly them to get 5th at the Japan online qualifier. They also have reps in Void and Cosmos, who I've yet to see enter a tournament with them.

Leo's been a big factor in pushing their results. You're missing the forest for the trees. They have great results including solo results.

In terms of consistency in top 8, they've been very consistent between Leo, Spargo and Cosmos. You want to cherry pick that Cosmos got 49th at Riptide? That same tournament MKLeo got 1st, although with them as secondaries, and Spargo got 3rd co-maining them. Then even though Spargo didn't attend there still were 2 in top 8 at Glitch because Cosmos got 7th. Even if you just look at Cosmos results alone he's still done great with them solo. 7th at glitch 8.5, 1st at Mega Smash Mondays 240- which was a huge tournament because it's prize included the last slot for summit, 49th at Riptide and 2nd at the comeback, losing to Tweek is not a bad record at all.

Frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see Leo use them more after Byleth and Joker fell short at Glitch.

 

[Thinkaman]

Hmmmm, this leads me to believe that my hunch was correct. That is, aside from extremely high visibility pro tournaments, a lot of the adjustments are pretty much arbitrary on the part of the devs. Or rather, they pick and choose from a combination of competitive perception and statistical outliers without any defined parameters for either.

visibleconfusion.jpg

The correlation is extremely strong, particularly once you filter in certain rules they seem to follow like "avoid changing a character in consecutive patches" and "ignore the Miis (only balance their individual specials)."

I just ran the numbers through Excel. The correlation between just OrionRank Phase 2 and the raw number of 3.0.0-12.0.0 patches a character has been buffed or nerfed by is 85.6%. (For non stats people, 0% would mean "unrelated" and negative would be backwards.)

If you take out Terry and Banjo's data as incomplete, and the Miis who I don't normally count buffs for, the correlation is 87.0%.

And this is comparing all patches to a single data period, even if was over a year outdated by the time the patches came out or already reflecting successful changes from 3.0.0 and 3.1.0. (So parts of it shouldn't match!) For example, to hit "100%" you would have to have severely nerfed Pokemon Trainer, and not buffed Captain Falcon or Ken.

On a partially related note, as I just watched Skyjay vs Esam, but Thinkaman , how could Incineroar be tweaked without making him oppressive?

I wanted big Revenge buffs, which I got and was very happy with. Beyond that? I think Incineroar is a surprisingly easy character to buff, super unusual for a slow character but that's Revenge for ya. Small adjustments to almost anything would have a meaningful impact. D-tilt? Nair? Really, just name anything.

(Contrast with Mac, who is very sensitive to which changes would or wouldn't matter, and Ganon, where it's very difficult to find anything that helps in a healthy way.)

Ever since the second Revenge buffs I've always felt bullish on Incineroar, and would be happy to see buffs strictly out of selfishness.

 

[Firox]

The correlation is extremely strong, particularly once you filter in certain rules they seem to follow like "avoid changing a character in consecutive patches" and "ignore the Miis (only balance their individual specials)."

I just ran the numbers through Excel. The correlation between just OrionRank Phase 2 and the raw number of 3.0.0-12.0.0 patches a character has been buffed or nerfed by is 85.6%. (For non stats people, 0% would mean "unrelated" and negative would be backwards.)

If you take out Terry and Banjo's data as incomplete, and the Miis who I don't normally count buffs for, the correlation is 87.0%.

And this is comparing all patches to a single data period, even if was over a year outdated by the time the patches came out or already reflecting successful changes from 3.0.0 and 3.1.0. (So parts of it shouldn't match!) For example, to hit "100%" you would have to have severely nerfed Pokemon Trainer, and not buffed Captain Falcon or Ken.

Okie doke. In God we trust, all others must bring data. The visual aid really helps.

 

[Kokiden]

if Leo wants to not be rusty with Joker anymore he can stop whooping everybody's asses with a mid tier.

That's actually what I'm saying...

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

New Tweek Talks

 

[KirbySquad101]

Low Tide City initial seedings and brackets are up! Low Tide City 2021 | Brackets (smash.gg)

Top 64 seeding:

1. MKLeo |
2. Tweek |
3. Marss
4. Maister
5. Kola
6. WaDi |
7. Elegant
8. Dabuz
9. Epic_Gabriel
10. Cosmos
11. Goblin
12. Lui$ |
13. Kobe
14. Dark Wizzy
15. Aaron
16. LingLing
17. Anathema
18. Chag
19. Ned |
20. Fatality
21. Stroder Ame
22. MVD
23. MuteAce |
24. BigBoss
25. Scend |
26. yonni
27. TonyZTank
28. SKITTLES!!!
29. KirbyKid
30. varun
31. sebayee
32. Ronnichu
33. Zie
34. Skyjay
35. ApolloKage
36. Suarez
37. Lima
38. BluStriker
39. ven
40. Sonido
41. Shadow_PR
42. Peabnut
43. BassMage
44. Grayson
45. Niko
46. Javi
47. Dakpo |
48. Orex
49. Kota
50. Mystearica
51. Ismon
52. 8BitMan
53. Luma
54. SHADIC
55. Yez
56. Brr
57. Sytonix
58. Rickles
59. Kreeg
60. Kazma
61. Skar
62. VaLoR
63. omega
64. Hakii

Do with this knowledge as you pleeeeeaaassseeeee.

 

[Nobie]

I wanted big Revenge buffs, which I got and was very happy with. Beyond that? I think Incineroar is a surprisingly easy character to buff, super unusual for a slow character but that's Revenge for ya. Small adjustments to almost anything would have a meaningful impact. D-tilt? Nair? Really, just name anything.

(Contrast with Mac, who is very sensitive to which changes would or wouldn't matter, and Ganon, where it's very difficult to find anything that helps in a healthy way.)

Ever since the second Revenge buffs I've always felt bullish on Incineroar, and would be happy to see buffs strictly out of selfishness.

I think a buff to Incineroar that would greatly improve the character without making it too obnoxious would be to just knock down the endlag on Side B a bit. All too often, the problem with slower characters is just a lack of decent burst movement that doesn't just put them in jeopardy, and we've seen via Falco how much of a difference it can make. The key timing would be to still make stuffing Alolan Whip valuable counterplay, but to actually make it a tool for Incineroar to get in on opponents even if it whiffs.

As for Little Mac, I've actually been thinking about something for a while: What if Mac could act out of his Up B? It keeps the “not an air fighter” thing because his aerials would still not be great, but it would give Mac both a way to mix up his recoveries and the ability to anti-air/attack platforms at less risk.

 

[Hippieslayer]

There are some easy ways to buff Ganon without breaking him. For one his down-b is very meh for no apparent reason. It should be a better burst option than it is.

 

[The_Bookworm]

I am personally not sure on why people are afraid of accidentally breaking .

I mean, how are we sure that this character is easy to break? This character has never seen the light of true metagame relevancy except for some stages in the Melee meta, and today is niche-at-best.

I guess I can kinda see it in a low/casual level, but that already applies to heavies in any Smash game. I don't really see it ever in a high or even mid level.

 

[Thinkaman]

I think a buff to Incineroar that would greatly improve the character without making it too obnoxious would be to just knock down the endlag on Side B a bit. All too often, the problem with slower characters is just a lack of decent burst movement that doesn't just put them in jeopardy, and we've seen via Falco how much of a difference it can make. The key timing would be to still make stuffing Alolan Whip valuable counterplay, but to actually make it a tool for Incineroar to get in on opponents even if it whiffs.

I like this at high level play, but not at lower. With suboptimal punishes (but still able to pass the input), whip is one of the best risk-reward moves in the entire game. (Even without revenge) The casual Incineroars I've seen spam this move to no end, and their opponents--clearly--aren't punishing them proportionally for it.

As for Little Mac, I've actually been thinking about something for a while: What if Mac could act out of his Up B? It keeps the “not an air fighter” thing because his aerials would still not be great, but it would give Mac both a way to mix up his recoveries and the ability to anti-air/attack platforms at less risk.

I've had similar thoughts for Ganondorf, who is the most starved for recovery mixups in the game. Giving him a poor man's Kazuya up-b addresses that without giving him any power elsewhere.

For Mac, it is less about that (unless the FAF is such that he can get a full MegaMan/Sonic/Banjo air dodge out of it, but I don't think that's what you meant) and more about the freedom to use his f1 invincible up-b more freely.

Mac has a lot of 50:50s using up-b as both a combo escape tool and an aerial kill move, but the risk of getting that 50:50 wrong is... very high, frequently death. Even with a generous FAF, letting him side-b, air-dodge, or counter before hitting the ground would shift the calculus a great deal.

There are some easy ways to buff Ganon without breaking him. For one his down-b is very meh for no apparent reason. It should be a better burst option than it is.

Improving down-b is imo the best place to add power to Ganon. In BBrawl, we gave it not just higher damage but specifically enough to trample most projectiles--they added this in Smash 4 patch 1.1.5 and it exists in Ultimate today. We also made it invincible, which at that point really only affected transcendent projectiles and tether grabs. I believe it would be fine to put more even power on the move, up to pretty scary levels, without breaking anything.

If I were making a new Smash, I'd make Wizkick reflect. (As well as Falcon Punch)

I am personally not sure on why people are afraid of accidentally breaking .

I mean, how are we sure that this character is easy to break? This character has never seen the light of true metagame relevancy except for some stages in the Melee meta, and today is niche-at-best.

I guess I can kinda see it in a low/casual level, but that already applies to heavies in any Smash game. I don't really see it ever in a high or even mid level.

Ganon has always had a strong presence at lower levels of play, for one of the most generous definitions of "lower."

Broader 1v1 data (beyond say OrionStats level) is rare and less accurate, but Ganon consistently does well. (So do most heavies.) PGStats 9.0.0-11.0.1 bracket-wide data puts him just above the median/mean in usage and use below the median/mean for win-rate. At just the top eighth of bracket, his usage has gone down slightly but his win-rate has jumped up! When you consider that Ganon is obviously not doing well in the top 1/32nd of bracket, this suggests his performance between the 88th and 97th percentile of tournament play is exceptionally strong, comparable to someone like Falco, Richter, or Ken.

In other words, if you are in a 1024-man bracket and playing to enter top 64 (and this is the typical peak of your abilities), according to this PG Stats data you are much more likely to lose to a random Ganon you've never heard of than a random [most characters] you've never heard of. (In the same way that a "random Ice Climbers you've never heard of" is the absolute worst thing that could happen to you.)

Note that this is mostly true for DDD too, but he has far more players making this far and more capacity for his best players to go the distance. Other heavies may have more players (Bowser, DK) or may not (K. Rool), and all have best representatives perfoming stronger; but only DDD perfoms so intensely well at this band of play.

Now, all that said, that's just 1v1.

It's often said without evidence that Ganon is better in teams and especially FFAs, but I think the assertion is correct. In my experience, he also benefits from items--he is slow, but items play tends to distract from and "override" the usual neutral and recovery game that he is weakest at. He is probably neutral on Final Smashes for similar reasons (his is okay but he isn't hurting for kill power), and prefers a large number of non-traditional stages to the ones we use. (Again, recovery and neutral disruption favors him)

Contrast with Mac, who has very mixed feelings about items, dislikes Final Smashes, and isn't a fan of FFAs on standard-size stages.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

DDee, one of the best Steve's that's been really tearing it up in Georgia, has posted a tier list.

Tier list before the next DLC
-roughly ordered in each tier
-discuss plz pic.twitter.com/3ylEC5U8sk

— SS | DDee! (@ddee_ssbu) October 2, 2021

Edit: Big upset at Low Tide City
Lavish 2-0 Kola

 

[KirbySquad101]

List of Riptide upsets so far:

https://www.reddit.com/r/smashbros/comments/q018wz
Some preeetttyy crazy upsets already in addition to the Lavish 2-0 against Kola.

 

[Thinkaman]

As usual, a good day for Bayo and bad day for ROB are the same day.

 

[Game7a1]

Top 32 of Low Tide City, starting with Winner's Side:
MKLeo vs Anathema
Scend vs Brr
Maister vs Fatality
Lima vs Lui$
Tweek vs Chag
Elegant vs Cosmos
Marss vs Dark Wizzy
Dabuz vs MVD

Loser's Side:
BigBoss vs WaDi
ArmyOil vs Shadow_PR
Luma vs SKITTLES
Niko vs Kola
Peabnut vs Aaron
Gidy vs MuteAce
varun vs BassMage
TonyZTank vs Goblin

We've got some fresh faces and characters in top 32 of a big tournament this time around, and as usual, a bunch of ROBs.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Top 32 of Low Tide City, starting with Winner's Side:
MKLeo vs Anathema
Scend vs Brr
Maister vs Fatality
Lima vs Lui$
Tweek vs Chag
Elegant vs Cosmos
Marss vs Dark Wizzy
Dabuz vs MVD

Loser's Side:
BigBoss vs WaDi
ArmyOil vs Shadow_PR
Luma vs SKITTLES
Niko vs Kola
Peabnut vs Aaron
Gidy vs MuteAce
varun vs BassMage
TonyZTank vs Goblin

We've got some fresh faces and characters in top 32 of a big tournament this time around, and as usual, a bunch of ROBs.

I for one welcome our new robotic overlords.
Edit: On the topic of ROB, Larry Lurr did a video on what characters need minor nerfs the most and he put ROB as his 1 choice, above or .

Interestingly he also puts on this list.

 

[Hippieslayer]

I wouldn't call the nerfs Larry suggested for Rob or the other characters all that minor. Making side-b cause Rob to go into freefall is not a super nerf but its not a minor one either. I think he's assuming a lot about how the meta will develop and basing the nerfs he wants to see for the supposedly final patch on that. I dunno man, if the next one is gonna be the last I don't really think such drastic changes are warranted based on speculation.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

So Kota released his / matchup chart a while ago, but I never found it until now.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

As an Aegis main I'm posting my personal thoughts

• Lucas is too high. I get that Kota mains him, so he's a bit biased but I can't really see Lucas doing any better in this matchup then Ness other then PK Freeze edgeguards, which makes me think it should be volatile +1.
• I think is even, just based on Sparg0 vs Zackray/Sparg0 vs MkLeo. Like Leo won but Leo's the better player and it was still close, which makes me think the matchup is even.
• could be one of Aegis's losing matchups though Tweek and Leo think it's even. That said, Tweek also has an advantage over Leo and Sparg0's Aegis, notably beating Sparg0 3-1 twice in a row with the matchup.
• I personally agree with Pyra/Mythra beating most zoners at least +1 with the exception of Min Min.
• Speaking of , I don't think she loses the Aegis matchup. I think Min Min either wins or it's even, though there are some tricks Mythra can do such as Foresighting the arms to punish Min Min for attacking from half of FD's distance. After Sparg0 played the matchup against Dabuz and Min Main he believed it was even too, though he hasn't fought Pink Fresh or Proto yet.

 

[Sucumbio]

I see brr's 3'd a bayo, wow. Gonna have to watch the set to see if shadow just didn't know the mu but that's impressive imho.

 

[KirbySquad101]

Speak of the devil (haha) and he shall arrive, for Brr has just 3-2'd Scend after going for a risky, but successful edgeguard against Ness' Up B! Just one more game win from Brr from either the Winner's or Loser's bracket earns him a spot into Top 8 at a supermajor, a first for Kazuya (and pretty quick considering his status as the latest current DLC character).

 

[blackghost]

As usual, a good day for Bayo and bad day for ROB are the same day.

it blows my mind when people act like this mu is either even or in ROBS favor.

also NOTE some of these players better learn the kazuya MU there are some game losing mistake happening in those matches.

 

[The_Bookworm]

Speak of the devil (haha) and he shall arrive, for Brr has just 3-2'd Scend after going for a risky, but successful edgeguard against Ness' Up B! Just one more game win from Brr from either the Winner's or Loser's bracket earns him a spot into Top 8 at a supermajor, a first for Kazuya (and pretty quick considering his status as the latest current DLC character).

Speaking of which, Scend got reverse 3-0'd by BassMage in loser's to be out at 17th.

Losing to Kazuya and then immediately lose to Jigglypuff may feel rough for him, as both characters very uncommon in tournaments.
Scend also had some Puff problems in the form of Captain L towards the end of SSB4, which I find kinda funny.

(and pretty quick considering his status as the latest current DLC character).

It is not really that quick.
That being said, it is hard to believe that it has already been over 3 months since the character came out. Time sure flies. We are only a few days away for him to lose that title of "latest DLC character" as well.

 

[blackghost]

at this point i gotta admit I was wrong on sepiroth.
the character has a similiar issues that marth has. Requires heavy precision and his hit boxes on moves that are used the most

 

[NairWizard]

Holy moly, I hate Luigi, but I love Luigi.

 

[The_Bookworm]

Elegant takes revenge over Tweek over their set at Riptide, and beats him 3-2. He moves on to winner's top 8 to fight vs Dabuz, which may be a quite a challenge to get past Rosalina or Min Min. I remember how terrible Rosa vs Luigi was in SSB4.

Also, Goblin 3-1 BassMage to eliminate him at 13th. Still, this is by far the best placement of a Puff player in Ultimate's history.

 

[KirbySquad101]

Tweek's panic switching was bound to come out after the loss against Elegant, especially considering the set count of who he was up against next, but that's how you know Ultimate offline is back lol.

Goblin 3-1's Tweek to eliminate him at 9th place.

That makes our Top 8:

Winner's Side:
MKLeo vs. Maister
Elegant vs. Dabuz

Loser's Side:
Cosmos vs. Lui$
Goblin vs. Marss

 

[SapphSabre777]

The top 8 has been set with a big upset.

Goblin 3 - 1 Tweek

Tweek was definitely shook after his loss to Elegant, and he fell back on safety and camping too much. Roy just eats that sort of safe-move punish style alive with how explosive and fast he is, along with his range. His switch to Wolf was good for a brief moment, but the safe-move style was still shown, and the Wario got outdone at the end. Playing safe, campy neutral kind of gets murdered by characters that can be straight up ignorant (said in the most happy way, I love Roy) with it like Roy.

As for Top 8, it will be a sure-watch. Dabuz with his first good shot in a major in quite a bit, Elegant staring at the looking glass, and some returning faces with Goblin, Lui$ with Palu, Cosmos, and Marss on the other end. Lots of narratives and a really entertaining Top 8 before the denouement of the DLC.

 

[Cheryl~]

This top 8 is going to be very interesting. If Leo beats Maister as per usual he'll have to face two players he hasn't fought in a tournament setting since pre-quarantine. Elegant, who may seem like the underdog with Leo's love for sword characters, but we've seen how he can push through just about any matchup that seems tough for Luigi to deal with. And Dabuz, who Leo has beaten pretty confidently in all their sets before, but that was before the release of Min Min. The character who Leo seems to never want to pull his trusty Byleth out against (reasonably because that matchup is horrid for Byleth), and has come close to losing to multiple times in the past. And heck, Maister brought him to game 5 last time they played! We also have the shark pool of losers side with some great opponents who could go far past 7th and 5th like Marss and Lui$. I could be wrong and Leo takes this tournament easily, but I definitely think he's gonna have a challenge or two awaiting him.

EDIT: Well **** I was right about the Min Min LOL

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Man the amount of spagethi in that Marss vs Elegant MU would be enough to Supply an Olive Garden for months lol.

Maraa suicide dairs that closed the first two games..the second one for Elegant. Luigi Up-B oos punishes to take stocks at 30% Cyclones stuffing out everything. Marss playing ZSS like she suddenly grew turned blue and grew quills .and wait ZSS, bair can kill at 90% at the ledge..its that strong?

But yeah Marrs campy play really began to wear on Elegant by game 4 .. He kept rolling into Marrs down smashes again and again.

But in all seriousness Elegant definetly leveled up during the pandemic. Its like seeing him at his peak in Smash 4

 

[The_Bookworm]

Low Tide City (1101 Entrants)

1st: MkLeo
2nd: Dabuz
3rd: Marss
4th: Elegant
5th: Maister
5th: Cosmos
7th: Goblin
7th: Lui$

Spoiler: Top 12 - Top 32

9th: Tweek
9th: MVD
9th: Brr
9th: Aaron

13th: Dark Wizzy
13th: Chag
13th: BassMage
13th: Fatality

17th: BigBoss
17th: ArmyOli
17th: Kola
17th: SKITTLES!!
17th: Anathema
17th: Lima
17th: MuteAce
17th: Scend

25th: Luma
25th: WaDi
25th: Niko
25th: Shadow_PR
25th: Peabnut
25th: Gidy
25th: varun
25th: TonyZTank

Spoiler: Top 48

33rd: Kazma
33rd: Stroder
33rd: KirbyKid
33rd: Kobe
33rd: Ned
33rd: Riku
33rd: _trey5
33rd: Javi
33rd: yonni
33rd: omega
33rd: Skyjay
33rd: Rocke
33rd: Deathspade
33rd: NWA Danbi
33rd: Ronnichu
33rd: LingLing

Spoiler: Top 64

49th: 8BitMan
49th: Skar
49th: Grayson
49th: Lavish
49th: zael
49th: RuskiNurd
49th: Vapor
49th: SHADIC
49th: Shoe
49th: RJ
49th: Tenni
49th: Gaarc
49th: Orex
49th: Hakii
49th: Epic_Gabriel
49th: Sonido

For Leo's neutral special, he wields a Gun.

.... no seriously. Gun completely destroyed Dabuz in the process of that 6-0. Min Min's sluggish air mobility and limited distance on up B really got eaten up by the gun.

 

[Ziodyne 21]

Low Tide City (1101 Entrants)

1st: MkLeo
2nd: Dabuz
3rd: Marss
4th: Elegant
5th: Maister
5th: Cosmos
7th: Goblin
7th: Lui$

Spoiler: Top 12 - Top 32

9th: Tweek
9th: MVD
9th: Brr
9th: Aaron

13th: Dark Wizzy
13th: Chag
13th: BassMage
13th: Fatality

17th: BigBoss
17th: ArmyOli
17th: Kola
17th: SKITTLES!!
17th: Anathema
17th: Lima
17th: MuteAce
17th: Scend

25th: Luma
25th: WaDi
25th: Niko
25th: Shadow_PR
25th: Peabnut
25th: Gidy
25th: varun
25th: TonyZTank

Spoiler: Top 48

33rd: Kazma
33rd: Stroder
33rd: KirbyKid
33rd: Kobe
33rd: Ned
33rd: Riku
33rd: _trey5
33rd: Javi
33rd: yonni
33rd: omega
33rd: Skyjay
33rd: Rocke
33rd: Deathspade
33rd: NWA Danbi
33rd: Ronnichu
33rd: LingLing

Spoiler: Top 64

49th: 8BitMan
49th: Skar
49th: Grayson
49th: Lavish
49th: zael
49th: RuskiNurd
49th: Vapor
49th: SHADIC
49th: Shoe
49th: RJ
49th: Tenni
49th: Gaarc
49th: Orex
49th: Hakii
49th: Epic_Gabriel
49th: Sonido

For Leo's neutral special, he wields a Gun.

.... no seriously. Gun completely destroyed Dabuz in the process of that 6-0. Min Min's sluggish air mobility and limited distance on up B really got eaten up by the gun.

Yeah Joker seems like a rough MU for Min-Min .as we say MKLeo shake the reaming dust of his Joker. Aside from guns wrecking her recovery Joker has the mobility to rush Min-Min down. . Min -Min cannot get too predictable throwing-out her Arms because Joker can Rebel Guard to give get a big chunk of ArsenevMeter.

MKLeo kinda threw Game 4 of the WF set of Dabuz by going Agies His Joker was not doing too badly and his Agies was not as solid as his Joker or Byleth

 

[KirbySquad101]

Some standard, and not so standard things to look over:

- This was a... very tropey tournament to say the least lol. The return of Tweek's "character crisis", MKLeo vs. Maister, and Dabuz sitting in Grands only to get double eliminated. This tournament definitely had a classic feeling to it, and the return of Dabuz and Marss after a few rocky placmements really is a clear indicator the mold is starting to wear off these Top 10/15 players, not to mention a much scarier depiction of MKLeo's Joker than what was shown at Glitch. That said, we did get a fair share of surprises.

- 8 ROBs were in the Top 64 of the tournament, and yet, once more, not a single one managed to make Top 8. Either this tournament reinforces your thoughts that ROB is a top 3/5 threat because of his widespread presence, or reinforces your belief he's overrated because a character with this level of presence has yet to reach the same level of peaks as other, less represented characters have. In other words, the number of reps vs. peak placements war rages on lol. One thing to keep in mind is that some ROBs failing to place as far they did was a result of friendly fire - most notably in the case of BigBoss, who defeated both Epic_Gabriel and WaDi in his loser's run.

- Elegant has gotten - not one - but two back to back Top 4 placements at major events. This player has gone from hell to back to find the best use for Luigi's tools (particularily the wall of FAirs and the infamous "refresh" Tornado), the most unorthodox combo routes, and the trickiest ways of recovering on a character that's often associated with having a fairly linear recovery. Elegant has always stated that Luigi is a Top 15/20 threat, and while two tournaments isn't enough to cement that opinion, it's clear there's more to the character beyond our base-level assumptions of the character, and I think it's time to reassess such viewpoints (not neccessarily view him in a better light, but rather dig deeper than what we currently think).

- Other notable runs with "hidden boss characters" include BassMage's Top 16 placement with , KirbyKid's Top 48 with , and Skyjay's Top 48 with . Skyjay and KirbyKid's runs went as they were expected to seeding-wise, but BassMage's trek is one of the most impressive in Smash history considering how early he was upsetted in pools. After that loss where he accumulated 8 wins in a row, most notable of which includes Scend , varun and Javi .

- Brr's 9th placement withis tricky to assess in that it's hard to pick apart which parts are innate strengths with the character, and what are "noob" trappings that playes don't quite have experience with yet (most notable of which, but I saw very few players DI against his EWGF combos, but I could be misremembering). Regardless, it's nice to see Riddles have renewed faith in the character, though players losing faith in their character and proceeding to regain it only a few days/hours later seems to be a popular trend lately lol.

- Haven't really done the math in my head in terms of how much point accumulation this tourney does for each character, but judging off of looks alone, ROB is the expected prime beneficiary from this tournament with how much players he has. Aside from the obvious however, are benefitting well from having 3 players in Top 48 each, and multiple reps placing high bodes well for despite Tweek's and Kola's underperformance relative to their seeding overall.

 

[Gearkeeper-8a]

Its pretty funny how zackray said that joker loses -1 against minmin, but now that mkleo wins against dabuz minmin overrides that.

it think that mkleo learned the basics of them minmin matchup with joker, adapted to dabuz playstyle conditioned him to no use minmin bigger strengths like grab, and dabuz couldn't adapt back.

I dont have enough data to tell you who character wins/loses right now only that mkleo figured dabuz minmin out, like how he figured Marss ZSS and tweeks diddy.

 

[Kokiden]

Its pretty funny how zackray said that joker loses -1 against minmin, but now that mkleo wins against dabuz minmin overrides that.

Not necessarily.

I'd say that's more player skill, than the character itself for today's GF.

Leo is the best player in the world after all, and if he can win tournaments with Ike and Byleth, then that lends more credence to how he can make some things/characters work, while other players can never hope to replicate the same results.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Ned posted some of his thoughts on Sephiroth (I linked this because of swearing)

 

[ARISTOS]

Ned posted some of his thoughts on Sephiroth (I linked this because of swearing)

Nah Sephiroth is not hard. In fact outside of Aegis he's probably the most standard to play in FP2 (irrespective of what comes out tomorrow lol) and probably third behind Aegis/Byleth. Sephiroth seems to do fine in the 95-99% range (to borrow Thinkaman's terminology) but falls off at the 99%.

He does lack a good mash button, in that I mean both his OOS and ability to engage shields in close quarters is really bad, which limits him in a way that Byleth/Min Min are not as limited. If someone hits your shield and you can't grab them, you likely aren't punishing them at all - really bad when top players are spacing very well and these scramble options often lead to early kills. Outside of nair there's nothing strong at close range either so there's no threat to just getting in and forcing the scramble, because if you do it's >>>>> in your favor - and nair is pretty slow with a smallish hitbox.

Additionally, (and primarily) Sephiroth is prime parry bait. The timing of everything is just slow enough yet precise that once you're aware of the MU and keyed into the spacing you can begin to parry things on reaction (because he has to stand in the same spots a lot of the time). This is super scary because a parried fair/bair makes Sephiroth a sitting duck, you have all day to punish. Byleth suffers a bit from this as well but nair forces some pause.

In a game with more nuanced movement he'd probably be better but others could also space around his moves more easily ehh kinda a wash