Some additional Best/Worst matchup thoughts:
My girl/alien in power armor
definitely have a high tier matchup spread. She/It beats the tar out of many characters, but she loses to several key, popular ones. It also takes a long time to get good with her brawling mix of options. Specifically in ultimate the raw might of charge shot, which is quite literally "analog-dial-a-knockback-value-to-combo" takes a lot of practice.
So you can certainly play a decent Samus with a moderate time investment, having an Mkleo-level Samus to counterpick Sonic on wifi like we saw recently (being the best player in the world helps too...), however playing an excellent one at the level of Joker/Quik/YB who can take on and flip the harder matchups to even or favorable takes serious time commitment.
If you join Samus cord and you start saying "Samus is a projectile zoner" the smackdown will come pretty fast and hard. Samus is NOT a true zoner, not in the way Duck-Hunt, Rob or even Belmonts are. To understand her matchup spread, Samus actually has a fairly bad neutral for a projectile user. Because her projectiles are slow on startup, and long on endlag, as well as having quirky interactions with other projectiles/hitboxes. For most matchups her projectile neutral is not the determining factor. You're not going to out-neutral most characters, she has to scrap, often up close and personal, and scrap quite a lot, taking punishment as she goes. She's designed with a fast mixup heavy jab, excellent get-off-me out-of-shield up-B, fast aerials and reasonably fast tilts. So you will often hear her described as a "mid-range brawler" on discord, and it's the most apt description. It's only a dozen or so matchups where the characters are slow, or have worst options, that Samus' projectile zoning neutral is potent. And for those dozen or so matchups where the neutral is strong, it's hell for them, because if they get through the basic zoning there's a scrappy combo oriented character that still needs to be dealt with.
Best matchup is likely
, it's borderline unfair. I can count on one hand the number of times I've lost online to Incin in the past 6 months, it's that bad. CS, missiles, bomb, SM combo/mixup into grab, so there's often no hope to benefit from his main mechanic.
Next would be
. The ape has nothing in the matchup. His shield gets dented by anything at all and up-air will shield poke him, true combo for 40% every single stock and he just cannot land versus grab, CS and up-air. His recovery gets blasted, dunked, z-aired, you name it. If he makes it to ledge then can't even roll past a strategically placed bomb his frame is so large.
Although Samus is arguably the worst or one of the worst matchups for many other characters (
) I have to settle on
and
as my top 2 punching bags.
Worst matchup is
. No matter how much you grind this matchup, it's always bad. In the end it's not just the reflector, because there are plenty of those. It's not the frame data, because there are plenty of fast frame data characters Samus does reasonably well against, like Shiek or Ken. It's not even the playstyle, because rushdown is not Fox specific, captain falcon is not a problem (even post buffs). It's the subtle hitbox/hurtbox interactions. When
and
interact, even if
is not perfect in his alignment,
wins. Take landing on Fox with a nair as he dash attacks. You could guess that kicking Fox in the head with nair would work, just looking at the animations. But it doesn't. 99% of the time fox's foot hits Samus' dangling back leg hurtbox and he just simply wins. After hundreds (thousands?) of matches, that's the conclusion. You integrate all possible interactions at all possible angles and
WINS. He just does. Many Samus mains consider Wolf even. Pre-buff Larry Lurr had Falco at even.
is 6-4, equal skill. Perhaps more.
2nd worst matchup is
. This character is still busted, and I don't care what the stats say. Character is busted. Ruins so much of our gameplan with reflector+counter, mid-range giant balls of combo fire, outright invincible (safe!) moves that just don't trade. Nerf this. Expert
is painful and frankly painful for too many characters. This top tier remains, frankly, too easy to play and win with. Nerf this.
The expert Samus community cannot agree upon the next worst, we're unanimous in agreement about
as hell. It's either a combination of space animals, true zoners or akward matchup. If you check matchup charts you'll often find
but the variance is pretty strong.
I have for instance a theory that
beats anything with a sword. Literally any character in the game from
to
that uses a significant fraction of their gameplay revolves around spacing with a basic disjoint. Not destroy, but just wins, 55/45. We've seen sets of Spargo, Rivers, and many other top sword users drop to expert Samus mains in the past and so there's some proof of that. Interestingly in the big matchup plot of a week ago
clearly losing to
at smash gg play level. My main training partner is a sword user expert, he's been playing them for 2 decades, and I've been playing Samus for 2 decades. He feels Samus has the edge in Ultimate, and I agree, this engine is very good on the power armor girl.