So Akashic recently posted some of his thoughts on froggo.
The rest of his thoughts are on the twitter thread if anyone wants to read them, he concludes that Greninja is high tier but not viable as a solo main and benefits from a sword secondary. Venia then gave a slew of responses basically debunking all the bad MUs Akashic had mentioned.
I can see where Akashic is coming from. My concern for Greninja is that whilst he has a lot of buffed tools for offense/pressure, he’s still not throwing massive safe hitboxes which the opponent is forced to respect. This results in him relying on bait and punish strats, which are fine, except he doesn’t have the range to consistently punish stupidly safe buttons like Ike/ROB/Ridley Nair without overcommitting, leading to him having to respect to the opponent’s buttons in several MUs more than the top tiers who can throw equally stupid buttons themselves.
More importantly, bait and punish relies on the opponent messing up. This is
huge, and gets more and more important the higher the level of play. This is why even S4 Greninja was able to body bad players(/characters) like a top tier yet faltered at high level.
The most direct comparison I can make to Greninja’s play style is Smash 4 ZSS, who could throw good hitboxes and punish opponents hard but really wasn’t an oppressor. Greninja’s Fair for example has a similar front hitbox, similar frame data and operates in almost exactly the same way as S4 ZSS Nair (right down to comboing at low percent and killing at high percent; ZSS had to combo Nair to flip kick and Gren Fair kills by itself but w/e).
Greninja may very well be the best bait and punish character in the game. Actually, with Sonic nerfed, he almost certainly is. No other b&p character is as fast or clinical with such a diverse (true) combo tree, high damage output, decent kill power and ruthless edgeguarding. The question is - does this playstyle cut the mustard at top level Ultimate?
Right now, I’m skeptical. As others have been discussing lately, Ultimate’s neutral favours characters who are able to throw out massive lagless hitboxes (usually aerials) and oppress the opponent to death. Who out of the top tiers doesn’t fit this description? This of course encompasses swordies with good frame data but also includes characters like Wolf (Nair, Bair) Inkling (Fair) and Peach (-
insertletterofyourchoice-air) who have incredibly good buttons with great range in the context of not having swords. The thunder rats have bad range but their attack safety and mobility allows them to oppress in the same way.
Greninja can be oppressive against mid tiers and below (save for random anomalies like Ridley and Sheik who can still outbutton him but they still lose solidly to his b&p style overall) hence I can see him acting as a gatekeeper of sorts, however I fear that he’s forced onto the back foot against the top tiers capable of pressuring him to death and essentially ignoring his pressure options whilst remaining safe enough to avoid his punishes. Going back to Akashic’s tweet and in terms of MU specifics, Pichu and Shulk are great examples of characters that can do this, albeit in slightly different ways. A lot of the top tiers can abuse Greninja’s lack of oppressive tools.
Enter Venia. He’s getting a little ESAM-y with his comments regarding the character’s MUs and he doesn’t have strong national level results to back up his claims.
However.
This guy pretty much singlehandedly debunks everything I’ve just written by continuing to play button-vs-button with top tiers when he is able to, and seamlessly transitioning into a more defensive playstyle when required. It’s honestly amazing to watch and similar to what Leffen does with Melee Fox. Not to say Venia is as good as Leffen, but he emulates a playstyle which has proved incredibly effective. Retaining the ability to rush down the best characters whilst being able to disengage and “fall back” on his natural bait and punish status is, I believe, what Greninja needs to do to succeed at top level. Venia’s Greninja playstyle is certainly not easy, but it’s gonna be the way forward if this character is gonna crack the top tiers.
So yeah. Greninja’s solid. He gets outbuttoned but needs to mix pressure with b&p to succeed, which the top tiers can stop him from doing. His ability to get over this hurdle and continue to play his game against the top tiers, as Venia has shown might be possible, is what will ultimately define his viability in my opinion.