Character Roster Trend

[Reyairia]

Forgive me if this doesn't belong here, I'm not sure myself, so move it if you must.

I don't know about much of you, but I've noticed a clear trend of how characters are added onto the roster from installment to installment, a trend which Sakurai seems to have held above popularity in some cases. We all know that the most "classic" franchises - such as Mario and LoZ will have the most characters, while retro games such as the Ice Climbers are unlikely to obtain a second rep. But as more characters are added as the roster expands I see a certain trend as to which characters are put in before others.

In case you were wondering, yes, this is a way to find out what characters are more likely to be added in the next installment instead of having a thread of popularity votes in Forum Games for a measure. The trend goes as follows, from "only needing one rep" to "most deserving of more reps."

1. Protagonist only. (G&W, Ice Climbers, Kid Icarus, Yoshi's Island, Pikmin, NES accessories, Warioware, Sonic the Hedgehog, Metal Gear Solid, FZero)
2. Protagonist + Sidekick** (Donkey Kong, Metroid)
3. Protagonist + Sidekick + Villain (Kirby, Star Fox)
4. Protagonist + Sidekick + Villain + 2nd Sidekick (Legend of Zelda, Super Mario)


From game to game, many franchises move up; the best example would be Star Fox; only having Fox as the protagonist in the first Brothers game, Falco added as a sidekick in Melee and finally gaining a villain as Wolf in Brawl. Other franchises seemed to have jumped a step, such as Kirby - which went from only having a protagonist in the original and Melee to gaining a sidekick and villain rep in Brawl. Metroid's Ridley probably wasn't included over Zero Suit Samus because Sakurai didn't think Metroid needed the third villain rep (at least not yet). Similarly with Krystal (who is considered more popular than Wolf, albeit that is debateable) who wasn't included because that would mean having a fourth sidekick rep, and putting Star Fox on par with Pokemon, LoZ and Super Mario would have been too much.

I did exclude some from what I put up there as exceptions, because This is not a perfect trend, nor am I claiming it is. It is only a model - sort of the same way you study about Ideal gases when there's no such thing and I cannot predict what will happen to the franchise representation on the ones with already four representatives in the next installment.

Fire Emblem and Earthbound* are exceptions because they have no fully recurring characters, so instead of having a protagonist and a sidekick added they have two protagonists instead.

Pokemon, however, is interesting. It seemed to follow the trend from the original Smash to Melee (Pikachu as a protagonist and Jigglypuff as a sidekick to having Mewtwo as a villain rep and Pichu as a second sidekick in Melee), but that pretty much went to heck in Brawl; Mewtwo was scrapped in favor of Lucario - a character that can't be called a villain - and Pokemon Trainer was added which could count as a protagonist. Pokemon, like Fire Emblem, does not have a recurring protagonist (Pokemon Trainer is defined by the starter he carries). The closest thing we have is Pikachu which has been representing the franchise for the longest time and is the first pokemon to come to mind when one hears the the world Pokemon. Hence, Pokemon depends on popularity much more than any other franchise included in Brawl (Jigglypuff), the only character that really NEEDS to be there is Pikachu. Fire Emblem may not follow the trend perfectly, but there are still other measures aside from popularity that may indicate which characters may be included in the roster. Earthbound doesn't have many games to choose from, so it isn't too hard to come up with the viable contenders.


*I'm not exactly sure what to call this franchise because I'm not familiar with it. If someone can correct me please do.
**When I say "sidekick" I don't really mean an actual sidekick always there with the protagonist and helping out, but an important recurring character on the protagonist's side. ZSSamus seems to be Metroid's answer to this, as such separate character does not exist in Metroid.

Questions? Comments? Rude gestures?
This is only a theory, not fact. The only way to know it as fact would be if I were a staff member which I am not, nor am I claiming it to be.

 

[Linkforce]

So according to this formula the next smash bros (if there is one) will have:

- Tails, Eggman and Shadow
- Snake, Greyfox, Older Snake(?)
- (insert random popular NES game protagonist here)
- 1 extra character from each franchize (asuming they don't already have 4)

Could be true I guess..

 

[lumberheartwood]

I think that the way we are given now, we can look forward to at least 45 to 50 characters in our next installment, if there will be another one. We can look forward to that, not counting guest characters, since usually guest characters never become recurring ones.

At the rate of the way Nintendo is going, we can look forward to some new titles being added to the Super Smash Brothers roster, since Nintendo puts characters in SSB from games they have published (this is proven at Saki Amamiya's inclusion in Brawl as an assist trophy).

I think that our best bets for new playable characters for our next installment would be:

King K. Rool (as a villain from the DK series)
Kamek (as a villain from the Yoshi series)
Captain Syrup or some Warioware character (as a villain/rival/sidekick from the Wario games)
Krystal (as a 2nd sidekick from the Star Fox series)
*Mewtwo or some other generation "sinister" pokemon (as a villain from the Pokemon universe)

**Fire Emblem has no consistent protaganist so they have used the main characters that have been in most Fire Emblem games, hence Ike and Marth. This same reasoning goes to the Earthbound/Mother franchise and Ness and Lucas.

***Future characters to be in SSB4 (whether as assist or playable or trophy) will come from upcoming or recently released games published by Nintendo. These would be those from ASH: Archaic Sealed Heat, Soma Bringer, and Glory of Hercules. The Conduit has been rumored to be published by Nintendo as well. If there really is a Super Mario Galaxy sequel or some other future Mario platforming/adventure game, we can look forward to the new main character(s) (whether as a 2nd villain or 3rd sidekick) to possibly be in SBB4. This also goes for a future Legend of Zelda game. Anything else published by Nintendo in the coming years is up for grabs, as long as they are sold to the public before the final production of SSB4.

At the moment, this trend seems liable. But due to there only being three games so far released for this franchise, nothing really is set in stone.

 

[Luigi player]

So according to this formula the next smash bros (if there is one) will have:

- Tails, Eggman and Shadow
- Snake, Greyfox, Older Snake(?)
- (insert random popular NES game protagonist here)
- 1 extra character from each franchize (asuming they don't already have 4)

Could be true I guess..

lol

I doubt 3rd parties will get another rep.

 

[Reyairia]

So according to this formula the next smash bros (if there is one) will have:

- Tails, Eggman and Shadow
- Snake, Greyfox, Older Snake(?)
- (insert random popular NES game protagonist here)
- 1 extra character from each franchize (asuming they don't already have 4)

Could be true I guess..

No. You misunderstood what I said.
It is not a rule, and I doubt that Sonic or Metal Gear Solid will have more than one rep. It is just an order of the adding of representatives not a measure of how many representatives are added. It's more of a if Sonic were to get another rep it would be a sidekick character (Tails). If they were to get another rep it would be a villain, either Shadow or Eggman. If they were to get a fourth rep it would probably be Knuckles.

First we need to know if there's gonna be another character included, then I can apply the theory. However Sonic and MGS is unlikely to gain a second - much less a third or a fourth - representative.

 

[Reyairia]

King K. Rool (as a villain from the DK series)

Follows my theory.

Kamek (as a villain from the Yoshi series)

Does not. I just mentioned in my theory that there needs to be a sidekick character added first before a villain is.

Captain Syrup or some Warioware character (as a villain/rival/sidekick from the Wario games)

See above once again. I just based my whole theory on the order of inclusions, which means a sidekick character has to be added before a villain is. The villain is always the third representative.

Krystal (as a 2nd sidekick from the Star Fox series)

Follows the theory, but unless Mario and LoZ get a 5th rep I doubt Star Fox will get a fourth one.

*Mewtwo or some other generation "sinister" pokemon (as a villain from the Pokemon universe)

Once again, I made a paragraph just describing why Pokemon is a complete exception to the trend.

**Fire Emblem has no consistent protaganist so they have used the main characters that have been in most Fire Emblem games, hence Ike and Marth. This same reasoning goes to the Earthbound/Mother franchise and Ness and Lucas.

I did mention that FE was again, an exception, along with Earthbound/mother.

 

[Charizard92]

I think I know why Pokemon is a what the heck series, most pokemon are sidekicks. Here is an entire list:

Pikachu: obtainable by capturing it with a Pokeball, it eventually became Pokemon's mascot due to It being the most recurring Pokemon in the anime (being the first Pokemon of Ash, the series Protagonist). As Pokemon's mascot, it has to be somewhere in every major Pokemon game and in every smash game.

Jigglypuff: Again, another sidekick like character who's popularity is also boosted by the anime (famous for putting everything with ears to sleep, getting angry for no one staying up for it's performance, and uses it's Microphone/marker to doodle on the audience's faces). This likely led to Jigglypuff's inclusion in the original smash, and because Sakurai couldn't get rid of a veteran, he sticks.

Pichu: Again, a sidekick who is in because it is a cuter version of Pikachu. It is unknown if Pichu was supposed to be in Brawl, but Hackers have not found any evidence of Pichu data, meaning that Pichu may not be supposed to leave Melee.

Mewtwo: While no Pokemon in the game it self is evil, Mewtwo is deemed the evil Mastermind of the first anime, distrusting humans after having to work for Giovanni, the Boss of team Rocket. Also upset about the fact that Pokemon become "slaves" of humans, Mewtwo decided to destroy Pokemon and human life on Earth and replacing them with clone Pokemon. Ash's own sacrifice to stop Mewtwo and Mew battling each other for the sake of the Pokemon in Mewtwo's lair (both the originals and the clones) Mewtwo was untouched. The other Pokemon, were, and they eventually revived Ash. This is when Mewtwo realized that he was wrong about humanity and their realationship with Pokemon, and took his clones and left to a remote area. So technically Mewtwo was a villain, but why he wasn't in brawl is a different story. Hackers did find data for him, along with Roy and Dr. Mario, but for reasons unknown (time might be the main reason), Mewtwo was left out.

Pokemon Trainer: Based off Red, the main protagonist from Firered/Leafgreen and Red/Blue, he is the first Pokemon character who can be considered a Protagonist. Disclaimer, Red is NOT Ash. Red never appeared in the anime, but his design would be the basis of Ash's. Red's Pokemon, are the series first (and most popular) starters at different stages of their evolution. Charizard and Squirtle were somewhat famous in the anime, so that may be the reason to have them in. To have a mid-stage evolution, Bulbasaur's next step in it's evolution, Ivysaur, was used instead.

Lucario: There is more proof that this is the Lucario from the anime than that he is an average Pokemon.
1: he does not pop out of a Pokeball, which weren't around when the Lucario was alive (although something similar was used, and kept the anime Lucario in it until the modern era)
2: he talks! no other Lucario in the anime can do so.
I have not seen this movie, so I'm going to refrence a site with a summary:
http://www.serebii.net/movies/mew/
This is also Proof that Lucario is a protagonist as well.

 

[Reyairia]

Pokemon is dependent on popularity, and special appearances in movies and the cartoon would boost such popularity. It's not surprising there's tie ins with the cartoon.

 

[Yukiwarashi]

Nice topic. Going to have to address one minor point though. I do not feel that Pikachu is the only character that NEEDS to be there. Sure, he's the most popular and recognizable Pokemon, but I'd say that a trainer with a Poke Ball is also very recognizable. Not only that, but thus far Red is the only Pokemon trainer that's been present in all 3 generations (and who knows if he'll make an appearance during the fourth), so while Pikachu is based off popularity, I'd say Pokemon Trainer is actually a significant character, and his set of starters + Pikachu have been the only ones to be mascots of the games, while the others belong to legendaries.

 

[Reyairia]

but I'd say that a trainer with a Poke Ball is also very recognizable. Not only that, but thus far Red is the only Pokemon trainer that's been present in all 3 generations (and who knows if he'll make an appearance during the fourth), so while Pikachu is based off popularity, I'd say Pokemon Trainer is actually a significant character, and his set of starters + Pikachu have been the only ones to be mascots of the games, while the others belong to legendaries.

I think that the fact that Red wasn't included until Brawl shows that raw playable character pokemon are held higher than he is.

 

[Yukiwarashi]

How do you know that he didn't make it because of difficulties of implementing him in until now? If I recall correctly, for Melee, Red was the third most wanted Pokemon character after Mewtwo and Mew.

 

[Reyairia]

How do you know that he didn't make it because of difficulties of implementing him in until now? If I recall correctly, for Melee, Red was the third most wanted Pokemon character after Mewtwo and Mew.

Zelda was implemented.
Well, I guess you're right though, who knows?

 

[Charizard92]

I have also noticed that the trend will loop around too, so once four reps have been reached, it goes back to protagonist. Legend of Zelda is the only series that has this many characters, which is where I got this observation.

Here is a list

List order: Protagonist, Ally, Antagonist, Ally#2
Mario: Mario, Luigi, Bowser, Peach
DK : DK Diddy
Yoshi: Yoshi,
Warioware: Wario
LoZ: Link, Zelda, Ganondorf, Shiek,
Toon Link*
Metroid: Samus, ZSS**
Kid Icarus: Pit
Ice Climber: IC
Misc: ROB
Kirby: Kirby, MK***, Dedede
Pikmin: Olimar
Starfox: Fox, Falco, Wolf
F-Zero: C. Falcon
G&W: G&W
MGS: Solid Snake
Sonic: Sonic

Exception A: Fire Emblem, Mother
Exception B: Pokemon

*Because LoZ has five reps, it loops around with Toon Link
** despite the fact that ZSS and Samus are the same person, ZSS can fit into the trend
***Despite the fact that Kirby faces Meta Knight often, Meta Knight himself is rarely the antagonist and fits into the trend

Exception A means: Because the series doesn't have a set cast, there can be two Protagonists (Ike and Marth along with Ness and Lucas)

Exception B means: This series is heavily dependent on popularity. While Pokemon could fit this trend in Melee (Pikachu=protagonist, Pichu and Jigglypuff= ally, Mewtwo=Villain), this was thrown out the window in brawl, having around three Protagonists (Pikachu, PT, and Lucario) and four allies (Squirtle, Ivysaur, Charizard, and Jigglypuff).

 

[Ilex]

Baby Mario Bros should come before Kamek because they are sidekicks to Yoshi, sweet <3

Would Leon from Star Fox count as an antagonist or sidekick, because in a way he is both.

 

[mariofanpm12]

i wonder what they'll do with cahracters like toon link.
for melee, it wa sthe young version of link
for brawl, it was the windwaker version
assuming they don't make another zelda game with link in some new form, will they simply add a new zelda character or perhaps make sheik a completely seperete character to cover?

 

[Charizard92]

I also realized that it is possible to calculate when a series will STOP adding reps. If the cycle keeps on repeating, than there will be a point where the well of a certain type of character will run out (mainly the protagonist) so you can calculate the Max # of reps if the trend continues in most series.

Here is yet another list of potential maximums

Mario: 8 (Dr. Mario is the Protagonist of his own series, and will allow for double the amount)
DK: 4 (due to the lack of Protagonists, this will have a maximum)
Yoshi: 4 (see above)
Wario: 4 (see above)
LoZ: above 8 and below 16 (considering how many Links there are, the trend might continue until they run out of antagonists)
Metroid: 4, potentially 3 (see DK)
Kid Icarius: 1 (lack of allies)
Ice Climber: 1 (see above)
Misc: potentially infinite
Kirby: 4, potentially 3 (see DK)
Pikmin: 2 (lack of any main antagonist)
Starfox: 4 (see DK)
F-zero: ? (hard to determine by non-fan)
Pokemon: potentially infinite (does not follow trend)
Fire Emblem: ? (does not follow trend)
Mother: ? (does not follow trend)
G&W: 1 (what is this anyway?)
Metal Gear: potentially 12 (Three protagonists [Solid snake, Ralien, and Naked Snake], a load of antagonists, and tons of allies allow for this series to outshine Mario)
Sonic: 4 (see DK)

again, this is only if the thread doesn't self destruct.

 

[wiimaster23]

well if there gonna make another one they should wait till the start of the nww system while wii is till sort of hot or like a year before the new concisel

 

[WolfCypher]

The only trend the Fire Emblem reps seem to follow is that there are always two characters...Marth and the current hero. When Melee came out, Fire Emblem 6 had just come out in Japan, and FE6 featured Roy, so Marth and Roy were included. When Brawl came out, the 2 most recent FE games featured Ike as a main character, so Marth and Ike were included.

Let's say SSB4 comesd out in 2012, and by 2012, Fire Emblem 14 (let's say their up that far) is the most recently released FE game, starring a hero name Valleri. So I'd assume, whether or not Smash 4 stays with the minimum of only 2 FE reps or if they expand, at least Marth and the most recent hero (in this case), Valleri from the most recent FE game, will be included.

 

[PCHU]

I think that Krystal is going to be in the next one, along with Ridley, Rundas (we need another ice character), Vaati (Awesome representation of Toon Link's villans), and a heck of a lot more than they gave us this time.
If I were them, I would start on it now.

 

[Deathcarter]

The only trend the Fire Emblem reps seem to follow is that there are always two characters...Marth and the current hero. When Melee came out, Fire Emblem 6 had just come out in Japan, and FE6 featured Roy, so Marth and Roy were included. When Brawl came out, the 2 most recent FE games featured Ike as a main character, so Marth and Ike were included.

Let's say SSB4 comesd out in 2012, and by 2012, Fire Emblem 14 (let's say their up that far) is the most recently released FE game, starring a hero name Valleri. So I'd assume, whether or not Smash 4 stays with the minimum of only 2 FE reps or if they expand, at least Marth and the most recent hero (in this case), Valleri from the most recent FE game, will be included.

To be honest, Fire Emblem will probably have 3 characters next smash. FE had 2 in Melee because Roy was a clone and it was simple to add another clone. In Brawl, every series represented in the original aside from Yoshi and F-Zero had at least 2 reps. FE might be given more room to grow because every series equal or greater than FE in Brawl will most likely have 3 or more characters.

 

[crosser43]

By the time the next Smash Bros. comes out, which will be quite a while, i doubt people will even know very well what a Pikachu is. Additionally, new characters, maybe even new franchises will replace the ones we have now. You never know what will happen in like a decade from now. The trend is pretty smart, but it's too hard to guess for something that will happen so distant in time.

 

[Johnthegalactic]

Ridley for Brawl 2.0(rumored to be known as Ultra Smash Bros. Fracas, now with Mastor Chiefz!1!!).

Anyway, interesting analysis, and yes, Ridley does need to be in the next game, who cares if he is too big, maybe Wario is too fat, huh?

Edit: Too appeal to female gamers, Sakurai is creating Super smash sisters, with Mama Luigi!

Sorry, had to!

 

[Charizard92]

My discovery went unnoticed didn't it?

 

[Reyairia]

LoZ: Link, Zelda, Ganondorf, Shiek,

I don't think Sheik counts as a separate character, but you may be right.

i wonder what they'll do with cahracters like toon link.
for melee, it wa sthe young version of link
for brawl, it was the windwaker version
assuming they don't make another zelda game with link in some new form, will they simply add a new zelda character or perhaps make sheik a completely seperete character to cover?

I doubt Sheik will come back after Brawl - I think the only reason she came back in Brawl was because of her Melee popularity, which didn't pass on to Brawl.
If the 5th rep slot is for an ally, there's a chance for Tingle (despite protests). If it is a villain it's likely to be Vaati.

The only trend the Fire Emblem reps seem to follow is that there are always two characters...Marth and the current hero.

At this point that is difficult to conclude and therefore prove. I have support for my conclusion; the series with three reps, and Zero Suit Samus seems to be another evidence to suggest that the developers went out of their way to follow the trend. If your pattern continues to the next smash bros game then there will be evidence but with only two games where they were included that is somewhat difficult.

I think that Krystal is going to be in the next one, along with Ridley, Rundas (we need another ice character), Vaati (Awesome representation of Toon Link's villans), and a heck of a lot more than they gave us this time.
If I were them, I would start on it now.

Krystal and Ridley would follow the pattern. I doubt Metroid will ever get more than three reps though, and Vaati is plausible but indeterminable. I can only suggest what would fit in the #5 rep spot - it could be a third ally or another villain.

I also realized that it is possible to calculate when a series will STOP adding reps. If the cycle keeps on repeating, than there will be a point where the well of a certain type of character will run out (mainly the protagonist) so you can calculate the Max # of reps if the trend continues in most series.

Here is yet another list of potential maximums

Mario: 8 (Dr. Mario is the Protagonist of his own series, and will allow for double the amount)
DK: 4 (due to the lack of Protagonists, this will have a maximum)
Yoshi: 4 (see above)
Wario: 4 (see above)
LoZ: above 8 and below 16 (considering how many Links there are, the trend might continue until they run out of antagonists)
Metroid: 4, potentially 3 (see DK)
Kid Icarius: 1 (lack of allies)
Ice Climber: 1 (see above)
Misc: potentially infinite
Kirby: 4, potentially 3 (see DK)
Pikmin: 2 (lack of any main antagonist)
Starfox: 4 (see DK)
F-zero: ? (hard to determine by non-fan)
Pokemon: potentially infinite (does not follow trend)
Fire Emblem: ? (does not follow trend)
Mother: ? (does not follow trend)
G&W: 1 (what is this anyway?)
Metal Gear: potentially 12 (Three protagonists [Solid snake, Ralien, and Naked Snake], a load of antagonists, and tons of allies allow for this series to outshine Mario)
Sonic: 4 (see DK)

again, this is only if the thread doesn't self destruct.

In honesty I doubt we'll see more than 6 reps for any given franchise, and I also doubt that any franchise will have more reps than Mario. Mario is the most important franchise to be represented and it is important it has the maximum reps. I also doubt third parties will have more than one rep, if they come back for the fourth installment.
When calculating additions to the roster don't only take account potential characters in the franchise but also which franchises are more strongly represented and why.

 

[Charizard92]

Reyaria, if you count doubles, then both Legend of Zelda and Pokemon have exceeded Mario. This is a calculation of going overboard with the trend, not an actual prediction of how many there will be by the last smash (if Brawl isn't the last one). The amount Metal Gear can reach is not a prediction, namely because Nintendo doesn't practically own it, but rather the amount if the creator of the next smash says "Hey, lets go overboard with the roster". The reason for Brawl was so the series can go over the globe, so I was originally doubting most of the veterans were returning and there will be a lack of newcomers because Wifi is pretty demanding (to be fair, when Zelda was revealed, it made me believe that if Zelda who wasn't in the intro movies can come back, then my friend's favorite character, Bowser, will come back too, Bowser was the next veteran revealed) so the prediction was small. If the next console from Nintendo supports a internet system better than wifi, than they can practically go overboard.

 

[Zombieoficer]

Reyaria, if you count doubles, then both Legend of Zelda and Pokemon have exceeded Mario. This is a calculation of going overboard with the trend, not an actual prediction of how many there will be by the last smash (if Brawl isn't the last one). The amount Metal Gear can reach is not a prediction, namely because Nintendo doesn't practically own it, but rather the amount if the creator of the next smash says "Hey, lets go overboard with the roster". The reason for Brawl was so the series can go over the globe, so I was originally doubting most of the veterans were returning and there will be a lack of newcomers because Wifi is pretty demanding (to be fair, when Zelda was revealed, it made me believe that if Zelda who wasn't in the intro movies can come back, then my friend's favorite character, Bowser, will come back too, Bowser was the next veteran revealed) so the prediction was small. If the next console from Nintendo supports a internet system better than wifi, than they can practically go overboard.

What about people like DK, Yoshi, and Wario? Their games are set in the Mario universe, so shouldn't they count as Mario characters, even though they have different icons?

 

[Reyairia]

Reyaria, if you count doubles, then both Legend of Zelda and Pokemon have exceeded Mario.

I don't count doubles, though.

What about people like DK, Yoshi, and Wario? Their games are set in the Mario universe, so shouldn't they count as Mario characters, even though they have different icons?

They do not.

 

[Genghis Krahn]

Captain Syrup or some Warioware character (as a villain/rival/sidekick from the Wario games)

Jimmy T.

...
(10Charizardssmokingcrack)

 

[Morveux]

Why do you think there will a SSBB4 ? [Just a question]

 

[Genghis Krahn]

Why do you think there will a SSBB4 ? [Just a question]

Why not?

Of course it hasn't been announced, so there are no guarantees, but nobody said it would be the last SSB game. So I guess we're just being hopeful. Why end it now?

And if anyone quotes the Brawl slogan, minus 1000 points.

 

[Reyairia]

Why do you think there will a SSBB4 ? [Just a question]

Smash is far too successful to be discontinued.
There was a whole building made for Brawl, why would it be made if it would just be abandoned soon after?
Smash being discontinued just makes no sense.

 

[Charizard92]

Jimmy T.

...
(10Charizardssmokingcrack)

I'm not. It is just a theory, not an actual fact. Besides, I don't really care how many characters there are, but in this case Wifi might be a limiting factor. Without Wifi, the list will likely be larger, how much is up to debate.

 

[Reyairia]

I'm not. It is just a theory, not an actual fact. Besides, I don't really care how many characters there are, but in this case Wifi might be a limiting factor. Without Wifi, the list will likely be larger, how much is up to debate.

I doubt wi-fi is a limiting factor. The limiting factor is the ability to balance the characters. Brawl is very balanced compared to other fighting games and I think it should stay that way, even it that means not adding as many characters. One thing I do think will happen in the next installment is that the developers will concentrate the amount on newcomers on previously unrepresented franchises (such as Golden Sun) instead of just adding to the already represented franchises.
I do think Metroid and Donkey Kong should get their villain rep though, at least.

 

[Charizard92]

I think Dark Samus would be better in Smash than Ridley though, and that the long list of Pokemon practically warrant new characters, along with the popularity of some characters.

 

[Noa.]

This idea is incredible! And it really fits well, and even explains the exceptions. If only there was a theory on how new francises are added.

 

[Ridley_Prime]

I'm only responding to this first part for Reyairia since she got banned for a week.

I think Dark Samus would be better in Smash than Ridley though

Dark Samus was only made for the Prime series though, which is done and over with now. Ridley on the other hand has lived after the events of the Prime trilogy (chronologically), which is more than I can say for that radioactive doppleganger.

Ridley's been around a lot longer too, and is the one who made Samus what she is today, not DS or anyone else.

In Brawl, Dark Samus didn't even become a Samus color swap. At least Ridley had 2 boss appearances (both with their own exclusive theme songs), his own stage (Norfair), etc.

If Smash Brothers still has a future, Ridley's bound to have more of a role (playable or not) than any Samus clone will ever have.

How would a 3rd version of a character that's already been included be better than a whole other character anyway?

and that the long list of Pokemon practically warrant new characters

Most of which have fanbases they don't even deserve , as far as the 4th Pokemon generation goes.

 

[Big-Cat]

I noticed this trend as well. However, I never thought that the trend could follow a cycle. Although, it's quite possible that after the fourth character, it can be anyone. Assuming that Geno was indeed planned as suggested by the salvaged data, it could be probable.

Here is my prediction for the most likely characters following this trend. Note, this is not a roster, just a trend prediction. Also, this list applies only to series that have character potential. So, Pikmin and the third party and retro franchises will not appear on this list.

Mario:

Mario
Luigi
Bowser
Peach
Geno or Bowser Jr.

Zelda:

Link
Zelda/Sheik
Ganondorf
Toon Link
Vaati

Metroid:

Samus/Zero Suit Samus
Ridley
Sylux

Donkey Kong:

Donkey Kong
Diddy Kong
K. Rool
Dixie Kong

Yoshi:
Yoshi
Baby Mario Bros.
Kamek

Wario:

Wario
Mona
Capt. Syrup
Ashley (This spot will depend on popularity)

Kirby:

Kirby
Meta Knight
Dedede
???????

Starfox:

Fox
Falco
Wolf
Krystal

MOTHER:

Ness
Lucas
Claus
Kumatora

Pokemon

Pikachu
Jigglypuff
Pokemon Trainer
Anyone's guess

Kid Icarus

Pit
Palutena
Medusa

F-Zero

Captain Falcon
Samurai Goroh
Black Shadow
Jody Summer

Fire Emblem:

Marth
Ike
Possibly a villain from either of their games or a new protagonist.
Possibly one of the girls from Marth or Ike's games.

 

[Ridley_Prime]

I noticed this trend as well. However, I never thought that the trend could follow a cycle. Although, it's quite possible that after the fourth character, it can be anyone. Assuming that Geno was indeed planned as suggested by the salvaged data, it could be probable.

Here is my prediction for the most likely characters following this trend. Note, this is not a roster, just a trend prediction. Also, this list applies only to series that have character potential. So, Pikmin and the third party and retro franchises will not appear on this list.

Mario:

Mario
Luigi
Bowser
Peach
Geno or Bowser Jr.

Zelda:

Link
Zelda/Sheik
Ganondorf
Toon Link
Vaati

Metroid:

Samus/Zero Suit Samus
Ridley
Sylux

Donkey Kong:

Donkey Kong
Diddy Kong
K. Rool
Dixie Kong

Yoshi:
Yoshi
Baby Mario Bros.
Kamek

Wario:

Wario
Mona
Capt. Syrup
Ashley (This spot will depend on popularity)

Kirby:

Kirby
Meta Knight
Dedede
???????

Starfox:

Fox
Falco
Wolf
Krystal

MOTHER:

Ness
Lucas
Claus
Kumatora

Pokemon

Pikachu
Jigglypuff
Pokemon Trainer
Anyone's guess

Kid Icarus

Pit
Palutena
Medusa

F-Zero

Captain Falcon
Samurai Goroh
Black Shadow
Jody Summer

Fire Emblem:

Marth
Ike
Possibly a villain from either of their games or a new protagonist.
Possibly one of the girls from Marth or Ike's games.

Posting for Reyairia again since she's banned for a week (this is from her point of view, not mine, even though I basically agree with it).

If the 5th representative of Mario is an ally, the 5th representative of Legend of Zelda has to be an ally too. That, and I always doubted that Geno would be icnluded, so I'm a bit skeptic to believe that he was planned, especially since Sakurai said he felt he had finished the game and that he didn't feel that any characters were missing.

And I doubt Metroid, Kirby, Mother, and DK will have more than three reps (that includes ZSS for Metroid's part).

 

[Big-Cat]

Apparantly, you didn't read the whole thing when I mentioned the fifth character. I said that any character added after the fourth might be up to whatever they feel like. Also, I said that the list was simply a trend prediction. It did not take into account of the likelihood of a franchise receiving that many characters in real life.

When did Sakurai say that no characters were missing? That couldn't be any further from the truth.

 

[Ridley_Prime]

Apparantly, you didn't read the whole thing when I mentioned the fifth character. I said that any character added after the fourth might be up to whatever they feel like. Also, I said that the list was simply a trend prediction. It did not take into account of the likelihood of a franchise receiving that many characters in real life.

When did Sakurai say that no characters were missing? That couldn't be any further from the truth.

Reyairia says:

I don't think they'd abandon the trend. If it ends up being a third ally, we have Geno (but again, I doubt Geno ever had a chance, and I don't think we'll be seeing him in Smash Bros unless he at least appears in another game). A villain for Mario would be Bowser Jr. An ally for LoZ would be Tingle, and a villain would be Vaati.

I don't think they'd just decide to be random for no reason. As for the interview...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=fWXDbL07yv4