It's interesting to think how contextually-sensitive and ever-shifting the Smash roster is. Things change, old characters are usurped, new fighters join the fray in their stead, nothing is predictable and everything is open to interpretation, dissection, interjection and intervention; for better or for worse, it really is impossible to predict, and it's amazing just how different things could hypothetically be if anything was even a little bit altered. From the unexpected arrival of Ness and Captain Falcon in
64 to the clones of
Melee, the Forbidden Seven of
Brawl and the promoted alts of
Smash 4, nothing is expected and everything is subject to the whims of Sakurai.
With that in mind, here's a fun game~
Let's suppose that
Melee's development took a decidedly different turn. Rather than expand the roster with last-minute clones, Sakurai decided to go with his original plan and add Dedede as a playable fighter. In this hypothetical scenario, this is our roster:
Consequently, these characters never appeared in Smash:
How would this have affected future rosters? Would clones even be a recurring thing at this point, since Luigi (initially the only true clone) had been altered substantially in this game? Would Ganondorf have appeared in
Brawl? Would
Fire Emblem still be the breakout success it is?
Personally, I think it would affect
Brawl's development in a number of subtle, yet not indistinct ways:
- Ganondorf would likely be a top candidate for a potential newcomer, as
Twilight Princess demonstrated that he is indeed here to stay. Consequently, he would no doubt have a unique moveset, probably based around the use of a sword with some magic. This may have affected Ike's playstyle slightly, as Sakurai thought Ike would make a good "heavy" swordfighter, or Ike could have come first and Ganondorf would be considered a low-priority newcomer, and it's possible (albeit hilariously ironic) that Ganondorf could have ended up as an Ike clone. This is presuming
Fire Emblem took off at all: if it didn't, Ike very likely wouldn't be a thing, leaving Ganondorf to fill the niche and round out the
Zelda cast.
- Meta Knight would have been top priority if Dedede was already in the roster. Not much change there.
- Wolf would probably have stuck around, as he ended up being different enough from Fox that they wouldn't be considered true clones. It's also likely that Falco would appear as a newcomer and inherit what would be Wolf's moveset, in an ironically appropriate rehash of what actually happened in
Melee. Either way, I think we'd only see one and not the other.
- Lucas would probably be safe. He was added because of
Mother 3 hype, and as long as Ness exists, I don't think that'd change.
- Toon Link may or may not have appeared, and he may or may not have his own moveset if he didn't essentially inherit Young Link's playstyle. It's also very likely he just wouldn't have appeared at all, or he could be added due to
Wind Waker's success as a semi-clone.
- The Forbidden Seven likely wouldn't exist as we know it: Doc and Roy wouldn't have existed in the first place, and Tetra / Toon Zelda would be in an obscure situation, considering Toon Link may not even have existed in this case. It's also possible they would represent
Wind Waker in place of Toon Link, so it's just as vindicated to say that their chances would actually be better as a result. It's difficult to say how Mewtwo would have been affected - since I can't imagine it was clones that kept him out, I'd say he'd still be scrapped, unless Sakurai felt like there weren't enough characters to beef up the roster.
And as for
Smash 4's development:
- Lucina and Dark Pit more than likely wouldn't be separate characters, as Doc's
Melee playstyle was one of the big reasons they were separated in the first place. It's also possible that, without Doc, alternate characters wouldn't exist, which means Alph wouldn't exist either.
- If Wolf was added over Falco, he'd probably be in the base roster. If Falco was added over Wolf, I don't think Wolf would really be considered to the same extent. Alternatively, with
Star Fox U on the horizon, he could gain massive fan support for DLC (as he is right now) and would be considered as a brand new character with a new moveset. Lucas would remain unaffected.
- Let's imagine that Ganondorf and Ike were both in
Brawl: even if they weren't true clones of each-other in that game, I think they would see some tweaks here and there to distinguish them further in this game, and Ganondorf would probably get a slight aesthetic overhaul like Ike did to introduce elements of Demise to his overall appearance. If
Fire Emblem was a success and Ike was added in
Brawl, Robin would no doubt be safe. I can't imagine this would help Chrom's chances at all, though: if anything, it'd damn him even more harshly, as he'd then have
two heavyweight swordfighters to contend with, further reducing him to an "unoriginal swordfighter" role.
- Mewtwo would either be in or out depending on his appearance in
Brawl, and I think either way, future DLC would be unaffected: they'd probably just have another "ultra-hype" character as the poster boy for DLC.
He'd be too much of a series staple at that point.