Celebrity Rehab Mafia: Day 5 Begins! Deadline is Monday, May 28th at 11:59 PM EST!

[Rajam]

I'm with OS on this one

- KevinM claiming giving the gun to Macman is the most inconsistent thing around. If he didn't want to give the gun to me because he thought I could've mindlessly shoot him, at least he should've gave it to frozen then. OS is right in this point.

- Macman was already on L-1 toDay with real chance of getting lynched and he didn't shoot, with me and KevM supporting the hammer in fear of a "good-bye" Day-Kill

- Macman has a cop clear. vanderzant flipping framer has made me recover some faith on my sanity, and so far there has been no indication that my results are wrong.

- Why would Macman lie. Seriously, this is ********. There's no motivation at all in which Macman would lie regarding this. He could just shoot OS, or act "pro-townie" asking for town's oppinion on who to shoot, and it accomplish the same thing than saving the gun for later, without all these risks. It doesn't even fit number-wise, because it would need TWO NKills TONIGHT and NEXT NIGHT, AND severe scum "teamwork" to make it some sort of valid strategy (and scummies not betraying themselves later as well)

Most likely leaning towards a KevinM's lynch toDay.

 

[Overswarm]

make sure Macman isn't L-1 for a crazy rockin hammer. -_-;;

@mod request votecount

 

[Rajam]

vote: KevinM

Regardless of today's lynch and flip, I want J and Rockin targeting OS and frozen. I don't care which one you choose, and in fact I don't want you to ANNOUNCE on which of them are you going. That way we cover both of them more effectively. We already know JDietz doesn't have a NKill due to J's track, so just leave that slot alone for now. No need also to check on KevM/Macman if the one lynched toDay flips town, since we'll insta-assume the other is scum, and by checking OS and/or frozen, that will be either reinforced or we'll spot a hidden scum.

ok I made my mind. I want KevinM dead toDay. GO GO GO

 

[Rajam]

This will be the wagon:

OS, me, Rockin, JDietz, Macman

ok GO

 

[Overswarm]

and who are you investigating rajam

 

[Rajam]

Either Rockin or J, obviously

 

[#HBC | J]

Rajam, get the frick back on Macman. Da heck is going on in this game?

Reading this now. >=[

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Deadline set for 5/25 at 11:59 EST! With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch!

frozenflame751- (0)
KevinM- (3) Jdietz43, Overswarm, Rajam
Rajam- (0)
Rockin- (0)
Macman- (3) J, KevinM, frozenflame751
Jdietz43- (0)
J- (0)
Overswarm- (1) Macman

Not Voting- (2) Rockin

Woah is dat Gorf giving a vote count?!

 

[KevinM]

I have nothing to say.

Town loses because you're saying I made an incorrect play which I guess considering the amount of backlash it's receiving was wrong.

I thought by making it physically impossible number and gameplay mechanic wise to not lynch the person I thought was scum that I could sort of bully the game into following the target.

I really should have just given it to Rajam but I figured you would easily manipulate him into shooting something I disagreed with.

I figured giving it to Macman would have him either A. lie about it, or B. shoot you and then I could deal with him afterwards.

No matter what I say you're going to give some gigantic wall of text about how superior you are in mafia and how I'm guarenteed scum and then when I flip town you're going to be like omg worst play ever and continue to stroke your Epeen for the next forty or fifty games just as I've seen you do in every game

Arguing with you is fruitless, I could play tennis against a wall for hours, the wall still isn't going to give.

 

[Overswarm]

I have nothing to say.

Town loses because you're saying I made an incorrect play which I guess considering the amount of backlash it's receiving was wrong.

I thought by making it physically impossible number and gameplay mechanic wise to not lynch the person I thought was scum that I could sort of bully the game into following the target.

I really should have just given it to Rajam but I figured you would easily manipulate him into shooting something I disagreed with.

I figured giving it to Macman would have him either A. lie about it, or B. shoot you and then I could deal with him afterwards.

No matter what I say you're going to give some gigantic wall of text about how superior you are in mafia and how I'm guarenteed scum and then when I flip town you're going to be like omg worst play ever and continue to stroke your Epeen for the next forty or fifty games just as I've seen you do in every game

Arguing with you is fruitless, I could play tennis against a wall for hours, the wall still isn't going to give.

You don't get to pawn this off as something wrong anyone else is doing. If town loses, its literally resting all on your shoulders. Despite your complaints about everyone else's play this game, we've lynched 3 scum and one townie. That's it. (techincally you had two votes on him since I let you control my vote that Day to see how you'd go :B). Town has played well this game and they've done so by foregoing their own ego and instead using logic and arguments to make the correct calls.

If you ARE town, your play has been nothing short of horrendous. Putting town in a blind mans dare and then your reasoning being "Trust me, I put us in a situation where we'll lose if you don't listen to me" isn't how you win my vote. I specifically asked Rockin to look at you because you were one of the two people I'd have really wanted to look into today, the other being Macman. You having this crazy gambit and Rajam having a cop clear makes it pretty simple.

You want to blame the five people that are going to lynch you toDay because you gave someone you think is scum a gun and then said "trust me everybody", go ahead. But you've been useless as always. I don't know how you used to play mafia, but you're bottom tier now. I guess I should be more likely to entertain the idea that you'd do something idiotic given your more recent performances, but I'm not in the business of letting scum do openly scummy things and saying "but are you SURE?".

But hey, you know that already. That's why superior players like Marshy can guide town to multiple scum lynches while you have to come up with obscure gambits to bully town into doing something because no one would ever listen to you. You're a ghost.

Even now, when you're openly claiming that town is going to lose because macman is gonna kill us all (hey poisoner, take him out?), your defense has literally been "trust me" until you finally say "I have no words". The one time people would actually need your input, you just give up. Charming.

Your realization that you ****ed up is even backwards. "Town loses because you say that I made a bad play which considering all the backlash its receiving is wrong". Not "oh, I was an idiot and didn't think things through" but just straight up "other people think its stupid so I guess it is".


I'm glad you have such faith in my abilities that you could give it to the town cop and expect him to shoot someone of my choosing though.






Macman, where are you. You need to be posting. I'm volatile and willing to do crazy things.

 

[Overswarm]

Wait a minute...

You lie.


You specifically said earlier in the Day phase that you had given Macman the gun not caring whether he'd shoot me or pretend he didn't have the gun, and indicated that Macman shooting wouldn't end the day.

Yet here you're mentioning that you thought it'd be best to bully town into lynching Macman because it's the smartest move "mechanic wise". This could only make sense if you not only
A) thought Macman was going to pretend to not have the gun for no reason and
B) knew that the daykill would end the day

So did you or did you not know the daykill would end the day?

Inconsistencies all over your stories.

 

[#HBC | J]

KevinM! Do not give up especially when you have people like me or FF backing you up in this debate.

*cracks knuckles*

J/FF vs. Rajam/OS

I call Rajam.

Macman is getting lynched. You two need to realize this point.

 

[Overswarm]

Why?

What has Macman done ANYWHERE to put any suspicion on him prior to toDay that suddenly makes HIM the prime target?

What reason does KevinM have for his actions?

When looking at KevinM vs Macman we have a cop clear on Macman, inconsistent reasoning from KevinM, no evidence of KevinM's abilities or role, an admittance of mod-confirmation of his ability (which is unique, given that FF isn't notified about his BPness), and absolutely no motive for Macman not to shoot.

Seriously, why would Macman not shoot?

WHY WOULD HE NOT HAVE SHOT ALREADY?

8 people.

Assume Macman is literally the only scum left we need to worry about.

Macman gets gun. KevinM says "shoot OS". Macman says "okay". He shoots me, I flip town. 7 people left.

Night phase. Two people die. 5 people left.

We lynch someone, flips town. That someone won't be macman, because WTF would lynch macman for shooting me? 4 left.

Night phase.

One person dies, 3 man left. Lylo.

If he doesn't shoot, we lynch KevinM toDay. 7 people left.

down to 5 over Night.

Macman shoots immediately, killing one. Down to 4. Night Kill, down to 3.

Macman gets lynched immediately.


Macman cannot win by quick shooting tomorrow.

Given the 50/50 scenario, it is not possible for him to win if we lynch KevinM and he flips town.


Look at the numbers from a Day perspective.

Macman scum shooting today
Day 1 (today) - 8 players, one shot, down to 7.
Day 2 - Two killed over night, down to 5. Lynch one, down to 4.
Day 3 - One killed over night, down to 3. Macman might not be dead.

Macman scum shooting fast tomorrow
Day 1 - 8 players, one lynch, down to 7.
Day 2 - Two killed over night, down to 5. Macman quick shoots, down to 4.
Day 3 - One killed over night, down to 3. Macman instantly lynched.



Macman can't win on his own with that strategy. It is mathematically impossible. This doesn't even account for things like FrozenFlame's potentially bulletproofness (also, lol at the fact that FF of all people might have been shot at N1).

You know what Macman's only winning strategy would be? If KevinM flipped scum gunsmith and Macman just randomly happened to be the other scum and a godfather and he held onto the gun for multiple day phases and quick shot in lylo. That's it, literally. And that's easy enough to stop anyway.

 

[#HBC | J]

You are actually considering a scum gunsmith?

You are reaching with a terrible reason at the last line.

Also FF being shot N1 is like a tradition among vets and also FF's play makes me also wanna believe his claim much more. Plus if we are to talk mechanic wise, his role does make sense as town.

 

[KevinM]

I didn't imply the daykill would end the day... you're reading implications into things that aren't there.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

Fm l

 

[#HBC | Mac]

omfg I JUST DID IT AGAIN

atleast i copied and pasted some of what I had b4 i lost it

 

[#HBC | Mac]

i had a long post that I lost due to accidentally refreshing the submission page. im just gonna make a concise version and im not gonna bother with the good formatting my earlier post had.

J is super townie. He's been on all of our scum lynches so far. and this post was really good http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14306190&postcount=596. specifically his scum/lean scum reads. There's almost no way J is scum.

Rockin and J's roleclaim both back each other. Though their results have given very little info. Rockin's first 3 results were of people who already had their role out in the open. there are two scenarios: rockin and J are both on the same scum faction backing each other (this is highly unlikely) or their roles are both valid. However rockin can still be a scum flavor cop so I needed to look into his play in my reread.

Rockin's game d1 was full of comments on various things but no votes or concrete stances. normally something i would find scummy, but now that I think about it, this seems to be inline with rockin's townmeta. this post kind of backs that idea http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14297970&postcount=533 Also his change of heart on kantrip between d1 and d2 due to an investigation of Kantrip is completely town leaning. If he was scum and investigated the doc, I doubt he'd attempt to stop ppl from lynching kantrip. Essentially what Rajam was saying earlier. So rockins town.

Rockin and J are both easily town.

J's recent posts about JD are on point. That slot has done nearly nothing this game. I could easily see him being scum.

it's nearly impossible for FF to be on x1's/vands scum faction. heres copypasta from my notes explaining my reasoning:
X1 and FF stillll going at it, either huge distancing attempt or FF isn't part of infernos team
also vand appeals to FF and joins the kantrip wagon clearly in an attempt to divert the inferno lynch. whats interesting here is that he caters to FF which makes me think that Vand assumed FF was town and wanted to keep him on the kantwagon -- http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14309003&postcount=639
FF votes X1, vands ploy didn't work

Theres a chance that FF could be in the vinyl/dh camp. Especially since after x1 fake claimed cop, ff switched to kantrip and then later OS instead of Chaco who was the major lynch candidate at that point. I don't have too much faith in this idea though, especially since FF is on the vinyl lynch d2. FF's play has been generally solid all game (in typical FF fashion). He's a tossup between town and indy I'd say, with a slim chance of vinyl/dh/ff

OS's play at the end of d1 was some of the scummiest **** ever. You guys already know my reasoning for that. He also continued to bother me because it seemed like as the game progressed he was still just focused on self preservation and trying to lynch anyone who wasn't him. Esp how he held on to Rajam's results as a way to keep him alive. For example, today he wanted a rockin lynch despite overwhelming evidence of rockin being town.

but this whole self preservation concept completely broke down when he opted against hammering me. he could have EASILY gone for the hammer and noone would have blamed it for it, and he would still be alive to live another day. Knowing this, I had to reevaluate the lens that I looked at OS from. His play this game could really just be due to his meta. He seems to be overreliant on investigative roles and plans. idk, from that perspective, his play isn't nearly as scummy as I thought just complete anti the way I look at the game.

kevin's obvscum at this point

Kevin and JD are my picks for scum. Then in the suprising event that they die and the game isn't over, I'd look at FF as possible indy then OS scum.

 

[#HBC | Mac]

ah i forgot
vote: kevin

 

[Rajam]

J, there is no evidence of a gunsmith other than Kevin's claim (which was AFTER Rockin claimed toDay he investigated you last Night)

Also, J, frozen, if you want to lynch SOMEONE ELSE, you need to directly address my #1761 and offer better reasons than the ones explained there. Here:

I'm with OS on this one

- KevinM claiming giving the gun to Macman is the most inconsistent thing around. If he didn't want to give the gun to me because he thought I could've mindlessly shoot him, at least he should've gave it to frozen then. OS is right in this point.

- Macman was already on L-1 toDay with real chance of getting lynched and he didn't shoot, with me and KevM supporting the hammer in fear of a "good-bye" Day-Kill

- Macman has a cop clear. vanderzant flipping framer has made me recover some faith on my sanity, and so far there has been no indication that my results are wrong.

- Why would Macman lie. Seriously, this is ********. There's no motivation at all in which Macman would lie regarding this. He could just shoot OS, or act "pro-townie" asking for town's oppinion on who to shoot, and it accomplish the same thing than saving the gun for later, without all these risks. It doesn't even fit number-wise, because it would need TWO NKills TONIGHT and NEXT NIGHT, AND severe scum "teamwork" to make it some sort of valid strategy (and scummies not betraying themselves later as well)

Most likely leaning towards a KevinM's lynch toDay.

Rockin, where are you? Can you come here and offer some insight?

 

[Overswarm]

Where are people....

 

[KevinM]

Lurking as per usual when crunch time comes >_>.

Anyways Macman should die then we win

OS follow me baby :D

 

[Overswarm]

Macman always lurks. You know who else is lurking? Rockin and J. Hell, Rockin has disappeared every time he's been in any sort of danger or anything is really important.

I need reasoning KevinM. I'm not going to accept "trust me".

 

[Overswarm]

@mod request votecount

@mod request prod on Rockin

 

[Rockin]

Rockin, where are you? Can you come here and offer some insight?

Insight in terms of what? I've already spoke my opinion of the current situation.

Macman always lurks. You know who else is lurking? Rockin and J. Hell, Rockin has disappeared every time he's been in any sort of danger or anything is really important.

I need reasoning KevinM. I'm not going to accept "trust me".

Not intentional. Schedule for me has been hectic and I tend to just read and comment whenever I can. Sorry about that.

 

[Jdietz43]

(I'm still here, but can't read wall vs. wall right now. Gotta focus on other games for a bit)

 

[Overswarm]

You can't just post and disappear Rockin. Ditto to you JDietz. We need posts.

KevinM has one, and only one solid point against him being scum: Rockin was supposed to investigate him, and it appears Kevin believed this was the case. This just confirms his role though.

Although

wait a minute

Rockin

When did you say you investigated Kantrip

 

[Rockin]

I investigated Kantrip N1

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

I'm with OS on this one

- KevinM claiming giving the gun to Macman is the most inconsistent thing around. If he didn't want to give the gun to me because he thought I could've mindlessly shoot him, at least he should've gave it to frozen then. OS is right in this point.

- Macman was already on L-1 toDay with real chance of getting lynched and he didn't shoot, with me and KevM supporting the hammer in fear of a "good-bye" Day-Kill

- Macman has a cop clear. vanderzant flipping framer has made me recover some faith on my sanity, and so far there has been no indication that my results are wrong.

- Why would Macman lie. Seriously, this is ********. There's no motivation at all in which Macman would lie regarding this. He could just shoot OS, or act "pro-townie" asking for town's oppinion on who to shoot, and it accomplish the same thing than saving the gun for later, without all these risks. It doesn't even fit number-wise, because it would need TWO NKills TONIGHT and NEXT NIGHT, AND severe scum "teamwork" to make it some sort of valid strategy (and scummies not betraying themselves later as well)

Most likely leaning towards a KevinM's lynch toDay.

1.) Inconsistent doesn't make it a lie. He could have just made a rash decision. Bad play doesn't always necessitate one being scum. OS is right about who he OUGHT to have given the gun to. He's not necessarily right about WHY Kevin made the decision he did.

2.) Or, as the potential last remaining scum on his faction, he MUST save that shot if he wants to have his best shot at winning. Sure, he could have shot OS and avoided all this scrutiny, but if he's hedging his bets and hoping to secure another mislynch and save the daykill for a more crucial moment, he might have figured right now it's all or nothing. It's not like he can quickshoot to save himself. If he quickshot before a hammer to save himself he'd be obvscum and its game over for him the day after. He can't do that if he wants to win, so saying that "oh look he didn't shoot and he almost got lynched" it's meaningless.

3.) Framer and naive cop are not inconsistent. A framer can **** with a naive cop just as well as it can a sane one. Balance wise, I'm sympathetic to the notion that seeing a framer in the game, you get points for being sane. Im still not convinced though. I can definitely see putting a framer in to **** with a naive cop.

4.) You're just straight up wrong. It absolutely does not accomplish the same thing as "saving the gun for later" if he ****ing shoots OS. It accomplishes nothing close to that. A properly saved day-ending daykill can effectively put us in lylo a whole day phase before we even recognize we are in it. Like for real, use your head dude.

Macman absolutely WOULD lie if he was confident he could beat KevinM in the 1v1 face off about the gun thing, and that he could then also ride his "cop clear" through another day phase or two that are necessary for him to quickshoot to victory. It's risky and it isn't easy, but it's a ****ING REASON FOR HIM TO LIE. People do risky **** all the time in mafia. We usually call plays like that gambits. Ever heard of 'em?

I'm just straight up not convinced that one of Mac or Kev is scummier than the other. Bearing that in mind, Macman potentially having a daykill he's lying about and leaving him around is just plain stupid. It's reckless. I don't understand why people don't see this.

We absolutely have the tools and the opportunity to deal with Kevin if Mac comes up good. We don't have nearly as much safety if Kevin comes up good. We're needlessly putting ourselves at risk for no ****ing good reason. Can we please play this safe? Like seriously...

 

[Rockin]

I was getting ready to ask people if a gunsmith could give a gun to himself

But then I searched up the role name 'Gunsmith' on mafiascum wiki and found something totally different about the name

On the wiki, it explained that gunsmiths can only know if the person has a gun or not (and it'd be in flavor format). It doesn't explain ANYTHING about giving a person a daykill at all.

Soooo....either he's lieing or it's some sort of custom role Gorf put in the game, which I doubt highly.

 

[Overswarm]

I investigated Kantrip N1

How about answering my actual question? When did you SAY you did?

1.) Inconsistent doesn't make it a lie. He could have just made a rash decision. Bad play doesn't always necessitate one being scum. OS is right about who he OUGHT to have given the gun to. He's not necessarily right about WHY Kevin made the decision he did.

While this is true, you have to admit from his posts the decision wasn't rash. He admittedly says he planned it, and literally planned for this exact situation.

2.) Or, as the potential last remaining scum on his faction, he MUST save that shot if he wants to have his best shot at winning. Sure, he could have shot OS and avoided all this scrutiny, but if he's hedging his bets and hoping to secure another mislynch and save the daykill for a more crucial moment, he might have figured right now it's all or nothing. It's not like he can quickshoot to save himself. If he quickshot before a hammer to save himself he'd be obvscum and its game over for him the day after. He can't do that if he wants to win, so saying that "oh look he didn't shoot and he almost got lynched" it's meaningless.

Except if he shoots immediately tomorrow, he STILL loses. Plus, it's in the other mafia's best interests to kill him that Night. If he doesn't shoot today and we lynch KevinM, we see if KevinM was telling the truth.

If macman is scum, he dies today or tomorrow. Neither net a win.

3.) Framer and naive cop are not inconsistent. A framer can **** with a naive cop just as well as it can a sane one. Balance wise, I'm sympathetic to the notion that seeing a framer in the game, you get points for being sane. Im still not convinced though. I can definitely see putting a framer in to **** with a naive cop.

Irrelevant really. We have no evidence to suspect a naive cop and the remaining players aren't exactly pristine. A naive cop is merely a possibility, but given this setup I doubt it would be fair to town. If KevinM is telling the truth, we've had a grand total of one mislynch AND a scum killing another scum and yet its possible for us to lose? Wouldn't be close to balanced.

4.) You're just straight up wrong. It absolutely does not accomplish the same thing as "saving the gun for later" if he ****ing shoots OS. It accomplishes nothing close to that. A properly saved day-ending daykill can effectively put us in lylo a whole day phase before we even recognize we are in it. Like for real, use your head dude.

Macman absolutely WOULD lie if he was confident he could beat KevinM in the 1v1 face off about the gun thing, and that he could then also ride his "cop clear" through another day phase or two that are necessary for him to quickshoot to victory. It's risky and it isn't easy, but it's a ****ING REASON FOR HIM TO LIE. People do risky **** all the time in mafia. We usually call plays like that gambits. Ever heard of 'em?

But macman's gambit wouldn't change the scenario. Look at the Day examination I gave earlier. Shooting toDay or quickshooting tomorrow have the SAME results for Macman. Literally the exact same in every way... save one. If he had just shot me, he wouldn't be under any suspicion, even with my town flip. People would have just said "meh, KevinM gave him the gun knowing what he'd do" and you, J, Macman, and KevinM would have all agreed to it. Rajam wouldn't have protested.

I'm just straight up not convinced that one of Mac or Kev is scummier than the other. Bearing that in mind, Macman potentially having a daykill he's lying about and leaving him around is just plain stupid. It's reckless. I don't understand why people don't see this.

We absolutely have the tools and the opportunity to deal with Kevin if Mac comes up good. We don't have nearly as much safety if Kevin comes up good. We're needlessly putting ourselves at risk for no ****ing good reason. Can we please play this safe? Like seriously...

Except they're both equally dangerous.

Think about the numbers game if KevinM is the one lying. If he said that Macman had a gun, and we lynched Macman today (which he's obviously rooting for), how would Macman's town flip play into KevinM's plans? We'd just lynch him tomorrow, right? There's obviously more to the picture than we've been given if KevinM is lying, and its a gamble.

None of KevinM's actions are townie, none of them make sense, and they're all bad for town in every way and he's literally put an instant-win town in jeopardy of losing by attempting to bully them. That's not how a town member players, and I can't see his actions coming from a townie. No one is that stupid.

 

[Overswarm]

I was getting ready to ask people if a gunsmith could give a gun to himself

But then I searched up the role name 'Gunsmith' on mafiascum wiki and found something totally different about the name

On the wiki, it explained that gunsmiths can only know if the person has a gun or not (and it'd be in flavor format). It doesn't explain ANYTHING about giving a person a daykill at all.

Soooo....either he's lieing or it's some sort of custom role Gorf put in the game, which I doubt highly.

http://wiki.epicmafia.com/index.php?title=Gunsmith

Man, wish KevinM would have looked this up.

Playing as Gunsmith
When someone is cleared, the Gunsmith could give them a weapon, if eventually they may need it.
Another strategy involving a clear in setups with more than one Gunsmith is to have the clear tell each Gunsmith the name of another Gunsmith, allowing them to trade arms.
Giving unclears weapons is not a good idea, as they may be mafia. Handing out a gun on Night 1 is also a bad idea.
If you received a Gun, it might be a good idea to ask for the Gunsmith to whisper you and ask who received a Gun. If you know they're lying, shoot them!
Be very careful when CC'ing town as Mafia when a Gunsmith is in play.
If you are armed with a gun, it will carry over if you choose No One. It might be smarter to just hang on to the gun if you feel you won't be lynched or killed in the immediate future.
If there is an Insane Cop in your game, it's better to wait to give weapons to cops until the Insane Cop has been revealed.
If there is a Ventriloquist in the game, THINK BEFORE YOU SHOOT! What other people are saying might be the vent.

 

[Overswarm]

Also, just thought of a way KevinM's lying could be worthwhile.

Scum gunsmith

creates gun

give it to scummate, tells town he gave it to macman

town lynches macman

two die

down to 5

everyone lynches kevinM

one night kill

down to 3

scum member quickshoots

down to 2

scum member NKills and wins



Don't know how likely this is, but was thinking of the numbers and realized that would be a logical gambit, just thought it was interesting. It's possible there's some zany indie pair or third mafia faction that just has a one-shot daykill or something like that, but we don't really have any evidence either way. Just wanted to see what could possibly make sense for KevinM's lie. Still trying to think of others. May be focusing on the gunsmith aspect too much.

 

[Rockin]

How about answering my actual question? When did you SAY you did?

I hinted it out fairly well D2 and D3 (when I said I no longer had the need to lynch kantrip as well as suggesting others do the same). I openly told my findings of investigating Kantrip D4

 

[Overswarm]

link to posts please

 

[Rockin]

http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=14430859&postcount=1505

Here is where it'll show you and more.

First quote crumbs on D2. the link crumbs on D3 (well, crumbing my role I mean)

 

[Rajam]

1.) Inconsistent doesn't make it a lie. He could have just made a rash decision. Bad play doesn't always necessitate one being scum. OS is right about who he OUGHT to have given the gun to. He's not necessarily right about WHY Kevin made the decision he did.

2.) Or, as the potential last remaining scum on his faction, he MUST save that shot if he wants to have his best shot at winning. Sure, he could have shot OS and avoided all this scrutiny, but if he's hedging his bets and hoping to secure another mislynch and save the daykill for a more crucial moment, he might have figured right now it's all or nothing. It's not like he can quickshoot to save himself. If he quickshot before a hammer to save himself he'd be obvscum and its game over for him the day after. He can't do that if he wants to win, so saying that "oh look he didn't shoot and he almost got lynched" it's meaningless.

3.) Framer and naive cop are not inconsistent. A framer can **** with a naive cop just as well as it can a sane one. Balance wise, I'm sympathetic to the notion that seeing a framer in the game, you get points for being sane. Im still not convinced though. I can definitely see putting a framer in to **** with a naive cop.

4.) You're just straight up wrong. It absolutely does not accomplish the same thing as "saving the gun for later" if he ****ing shoots OS. It accomplishes nothing close to that. A properly saved day-ending daykill can effectively put us in lylo a whole day phase before we even recognize we are in it. Like for real, use your head dude.

Macman absolutely WOULD lie if he was confident he could beat KevinM in the 1v1 face off about the gun thing, and that he could then also ride his "cop clear" through another day phase or two that are necessary for him to quickshoot to victory. It's risky and it isn't easy, but it's a ****ING REASON FOR HIM TO LIE. People do risky **** all the time in mafia. We usually call plays like that gambits. Ever heard of 'em?

I'm just straight up not convinced that one of Mac or Kev is scummier than the other. Bearing that in mind, Macman potentially having a daykill he's lying about and leaving him around is just plain stupid. It's reckless. I don't understand why people don't see this.

We absolutely have the tools and the opportunity to deal with Kevin if Mac comes up good. We don't have nearly as much safety if Kevin comes up good. We're needlessly putting ourselves at risk for no ****ing good reason. Can we please play this safe? Like seriously...

frozen, I can give you points 1, 2 and 3. Nonetheless I left my point 4 for the end because I feel it's the strongest one:

"Properly saved" implicates two night kills both TONIGHT and NEXT NIGHT, AND different scum factions working together; that's how Macman would win by lying regarding this whole scenario. Here's the number analysis:

We're 8 now. After toDay's lynch we'll be down to 7. Let's assume we lynch KevinM and that he flips town

=> This implicates Macman is scum and hence will get lynched. Macman will shoot someone next Day though before getting lynched.

Best scenario for Macman scum is two NKills toNight. We'll be down to 5.

Next Day Macman shoots before getting lynched; we'll be down to 4 and we'll move onto Night again.

If Macman wants to win, he needs TWO Nkills this Night as well, or else, with only 1 Kill, his plan is crippled.

Note that in this analysis Macman hence needs the other scum helping him both Nights AND Macman needs not to shoot him neither toNight and neither toMorrow with the gun, and if that's not enough, he also needs the other scum NOT BETRAYING him the next Night.

So, this is a extremely fragile plan.

So? Let's see what scum-Macman could've done by simply recognizing receiving the gun and shooting:

He shoots OS toDay. No one really complains. If we didn't want to shoot town clears, I could've suggested shooting KevinM, or whatever player town suggested. Macman doesn't fall into bad suspicion anyways. So, we're down to 7

Next Day, best scenario, two NKills. Down to 5. Macman isn't under the either you-or-me scum scenario (in which he is now with KevinM) which makes it more factible for him surviving. With a lynch different than Macman's, we're down to 4. He'd then need just 1 NKill and make a good call / play in lylo. This plan is a lot less fragile than the one before, doesn't require the other scum's cooperation as much (in fact he can help in lynching the guy earlier), and is safer in terms of how much suspicion Macman falls in, at least compared to first plan.

So, again, why would Macman lie

I know Macman's lynch is safer, but it just feels wrong, and we're in this scenario because of Kevin's fault in first place. This is either extremely-dumb-town or plain-scum

But this is not Kevin's only inconsistence. here is a 5th point:

5.- He said N2 he targeted marshy. He claims targeting marshy the same Night marshy died. ok, maybe that was a reach or wifom, but it's something to consider, specially given that Kevin claimed this after Rockin outed J as a tracker, but before J claimed his results. But that's not the only thing: KevinM was also inconsistent here on N2. Why not giving the gun to me? or Kafka - kuz who had a cop clear? This actually sums a second ******** action (maybe not as bad as the one from last Night, but still has "********" on it).

So no, points 1 to 5 outweigh for me the alternative route of playing it safer and lynching Macman. It's just too much. Macman-scum, lying, needs opposite scummies cooperating between themselves UNTIL THE VERY END, not betraying themselves half the road. Let's assume we actually come to the scenario that Macman is the scum and we lynch KevinM, and that two NKills occur toNight plus Macman shooting before getting lynched, with none of those deaths being scum. What we'd have? Next Night (N6) there'll be 4 players, from which two are scums who can NKill. So? This super-bad scenario reeks to scummies wanting to betray themselves that Night, probably entering into cross-fire. Even in this bad scenario town can win by actually not doing anything lol

I read your points frozen; I understood them but even so I want Kevin dead toDay.

As a last request, I'd like you (frozen) to entertain ideas / scenarios in which scum-Macman could have a safer plan which would motivate him into lying regarding this gun-thing and have an actual decent chance of winning. With numbers and possible roles; as detailed as possible.

 

[Overswarm]

I can see Macman having a scum partner and winning out with this plan.

But if we're assuming another scum faction, KevinM could do the same thing.

What it comes down to is if Macman does win with this plan, its one that KevinM gave him. That has to be considered. If there's some hidden one in line for Macman, that's just dumb luck and poor play on Kevin M's part.

If KevinM is scum, it requires him playing a gambit tonight.

If Macman is scum, it requires both KevinM and himself playing poorly.

If Macman is scum with a partner, it requires KevinM making one of the worst plays ever and information we can't do anything but guess about... and if we would guess "there's a scum TEAM left" then it could go to macman or KevinM, and KevinM is the one that's still in control of this whole situation.

 

[Overswarm]

Deadline is MIDNIGHT tonight. Rockin, you're prolly gonna have to hammer later. Be here.

 

[#HBC | J]

Hammer Macman that is. ;P

I'm not moving.