On the subject of our ranking systems, an even matchup is not terribly difficult to quantify. Imagine both the opponent played optimally, and Bowser played optimally. For common opponents like Falcon, we've got plenty of players who have input, and videos to watch in order to learn about Falcon and what we should watch out for. For the rarer Jigglypuff, Palutena, or Falco, research needs to be less anecdotal until we can lock down what optimal play for them is like. Sure, we could ask them to come in to give input, but those sorts of discussions can get hairy. Nobody wants to think their guy loses, so they'll be as optimistic as possible.
There is one asterisk to our rankings. Let's say I got good enough to be in the Finals set at a major national. And my opponent is a Sheik main. As Bowser, I don't like fighting Sheiks, but I've taken on hundreds to get to this point. My opponent probably can't remember a time where he fought a competitive Bowser. My knowledge of the MU is greater. It's an edge, but not one to be considered for our rankings here. We have to assume that player skill and MU knowledge is equal between combatants. Only then do our ranking numbers matter.
Regarding Falcon, his lack of a projectile means he has to go in on us. Between Fire Breath, Jab, and Pivot grabs, we have tools to stuff his offensive options. If you ask me, Bowser's not at his strongest when he plays on the defensive though. OoS Fortress is very functional, but clocks at most 11% damage and leads into just a reset. Playing rushdown against Falcon will have very mixed results and penalties for error. Our reach is greater, but Falcon's also a heavyweight with hard hitting moves of his own. We can't do anything about his throw combo and Uairs. Being airborne at all is just a bad idea here. Falcon's great at approaching us, but I'd like to see which of his moves beat patient use of Jab and Utilt for anti-air approaching. He has none. Stand your ground against him. His mixup options are limited, so our responses should be kept limited.
Neither of us want to be edgeguarded. Bowser is a large, slow moving, Dair-able target when fortressing, and Falcon's linear recovery makes Fairs and Dair dunks very doable. If you mess up and get grabbed by his Up B and stage spiked, you can tech jump into a Fair on him before he can act out of his flip animation. But overall,
his recovery is asking to be hit so use jab 1+2 and Dtilt liberally to get him off the stage for some early stocks.
I want to believe that Bowser has an even matchup against Falcon, but our match histories and video evidence just don't support this, so a -1 seems to be the most accurate. Getting two stocked against a Falcon should not be normal and is definitely the fault of the Bowser.