Britches and Hose Mafia - Game Over!

[Asdioh]

Have we at all considered the possibility that both Swiss and Asdioh are both telling the truth and that one of the VT's are actually a scum bus driver/re-director? I personally don't see either Swiss or Asdioh as scum currently. The scum team I'm seeing right now is actually RR/Adum/July.
The scumJuly would make sense if both RB's are town seeing as she's trying so hard to push a RB lynch which, if she were scum, she would know is a mislynch. I also recall her trying to clear adum just like RR was, but I'm too pressed for time to bring up the relevant posts.

At least Sokr is smart.




Swiss, half the players seem unwilling to think outside the box and want to lynch two "contradicting" roles. I would love to take the easy path and just lynch you, but it's getting really hard for me to see you as scum.

SO. Dare I say..

wait for it...

we form a Town Voting Block?

You+Me+Sokr.

Kantrip and Felipe are also town, but they're currently

BUT FOR THE LOVE OF GOD IF YOU ALL GO FULL ****** ON ME AGAIN I WILL ****ING BLOW OP.

I need a break. **** life.

That. I'll assume that's the reason you popped into the thread again and just left in disgust?

So out of John/Adum/July, who do we lynch?

lol ninja, QUICK SWISS READ THIS

 

[Swiss]

I cannot express my level of disbelief.

 

[Kantrip]

My win con is to make Swiss ****ing blow op.

 

[Swiss]

My win con is to make Swiss ****ing blow op.

I can feel the rage descending.

Felipe - What. The. ****.

The ****?

WHY?

Just......wtf

I honestly cannot get my head around the sheer level of utter *********** this game is producing.

@ Asdioh - I'll think and let you know as I munch lunch.

 

[Swiss]

WHAT THE **** ARE YOU DOING FELIPE.

THAT HAS TO BE THE SECOND WORST GAMBIT I HAVE EVER SEEN IN THE HISTORY OF DGAMES.

Unbelieveable.

 

[Swiss]

Right. Read most of it, but not everything.

Kant, your case on Asdioh is a little meh. What do you think of Asdioh responding to it with "but im obv town"?

I believe I got redirected N1 and there is no scum jailer. Adum is scum with July. Lynch July first.

I reserve the right to change this stance when I've fully read. I skimmed on the train this morning and spent breakfast at work sat in sheer disbelief.

 

[Swiss]

Sokr, I'm not going to openly tell you what to do.

But whatever you do, make sure it's smart. Assume the redirector exists and will be gunning to screw you over. Protect yourself if you can.

 

[July]

You're still not taking a stance. We've established that it's a hard choice. I'm asking you to make it.

I'm having some trouble seeing Swiss as scum at this point unless Adum is scum, which is a huge condition, so not him.

I was actually leaning towards Adum.

I will address your case on Asdioh asap, but my thinking is that an Adum flip not only reveals whether or not his results are to be trusted or not, but it should give an answer about your sanity and if your gunsmith results are legit. So if Adum flips town, we know that Swiss is telling the truth, and that your guilty results are wrong; knowing that Adum's n1 results are correct and that your results are wrong and Swiss doesn't have a gun would point directly to Asdioh scum. If Adum flips scum, then we know his results can't be trusted and your results are legit. That points directly to Swiss as the last scum. So I think the best information we can get, regardless of if he flips town or scum, is through an Adum lynch.

@ July

How am I being a pain? I barely post! You said yourself that I need to post more! Am I just being a pain because I suspect you as town? There are numerous possibilities that would make Swiss and Asdioh telling the truth. Maybe sword lied and was actually VT and was just trying to draw the NK away from a town power role.

@ Felipe

WTF?

Hahaha I somehow knew you'd pull that out of my post. You're a pain in the same way I'm a pain; you're stubborn and its hard to get you to consider my post/theory when you are set in your own. But I find it pretty townie, you've deff been better about putting your thoughts out there since D1. I see what you mean with the Swords theory, but he was on lynch row and if it was a fake claim he would have revoked it before he was lynched; not doing so would clearly hurt us. Now can you agree that one of the claimed power roles is scum? If we assume that you and Kantrip are town, are you okay with lynch pool toDay being narrowed down to Asdioh/Adum/Swiss?

Felipe's gambit did not change my mind. You were the next person to look at anyways, after weighing Swiss and adum.

If they are scum, they are scum together. It is possible but not likely that adum is scum and Swiss town. It is highly unlikely that Swiss is scum and adum isn't.

Statistically, Asdioh scum is more likely. Now is when I ISO.

I agree with this. My only hesitancy in lynching Asdioh over Adum is that if Asdioh flips town, toMorrow is critical and while its possible but not likely Adum is scum and Swiss is town and vice versa, those are things that we would need to weigh heavily. Ideal situation is that Asdioh would just flip scum, and idk if its best to ride on that.

Vote: Asdioh

I can have reasoning later, I'm quoting up his posts. Summary in advance:

A VAST majority of his posts were useless and fluffy.
Bussed/distanced RR with no real pushes, lynch intent, or drive.
RR had a "case" to share against Asdioh when the direction for the day was already established. He didn't want to share this and even made excuses.
Fluffy interactions with Red Ryu to fake conversations to attempt to avoid lack of adressing connection.
Roleblocker claim and action choice that is illogical and doesn't match up with what is confirmed.

Adum tracked Swiss, Swiss claimed FOR adum, I am now doubting their scumteam and favouring Asdioh scum. Swiss is confirmed honest unless adum is scum with him. Asdioh claimed no roleblock N1 yet we are missing a N1 roleblock. Two town roleblockers is still dumb.
July should agree with this. I want Sokr and felipe's opinions, and if Swiss or adum are going to call me ******** I ask they at least try to be gentle.

I agree with most of this. One concern of mine was this:

@Felipe, where are you? I've had a town read on you, but only because it's you and I'm not sure what to expect of you. If practically anyone else had been playing like you, I would have thought they were scummy a long time ago.
You've been coasting along and I haven't seen any effort from you. Give me two scumpicks and why. If you'd like, give me two town reads and why. Otherwise, I'd want you vigged.



I've commenced my reread. Looking back at the first few pages, I'm remembering how scummy Kantrip looked


unvote
Vote: Red Ruy

Reading his earlygame posts: noncommital casual questions and discussion that wouldn't lead anywhere.
Recent posts: the same thing "July why didn't you vote me if I'm your scumpick" and "Voting Kantrip because I think he's scum"
I honestly don't remember RR's case on Kantrip, hopefully I'll find it in my reread.

@Swiss: I still don't have a townread on you. What the hell?

@Adum: What is your current read on Kantrip? Sorry if you've mentioned this recently.
edit after finishing this post: tell me what you think of this post when you're done reading it.


Oh hey time for maths.

adumbrodeus
John2k4 replaces Seikend
Sokr
Kantrip
Sworddancer.
Swiss
Soupamario
Felipe_9595
July
Asdioh
Red Ryu

11 of us left. We can probably all agree that there are at least 3 scum among them, right? Cool.
Ok, so I'm town, obviously. That means that it's a 3/10 chance to get scum instead of 3/11. Now, since having 3 strong townreads could **** me over like it did in Awkward Moments, where the entire scumteam were my townreads, I'll follow the simple theory that if you have 2 certain townreads, then at the worst only 2/3 of the scumteam could be in your townreads, and you still have a chance at catching scum.
Ok SO! Let's say me, Soup, and Adum are all town. Adum's thoughts have lined up with mine almost perfectly all game, and since I'm town that means he is too, or he's really good at faking it. And Soup is being too Soupy to be scum. That leaves 8 players, for 3/8. Now let's assume Swiss is the indy to make it 4/8. Nah, just kidding.

John2k4 replaces Seikend
Sokr
Kantrip
Sworddancer.
Swiss
Felipe_9595
July
Red Ryu


The bolded I would lynch. Throw Felipe in there too if he continues to be unhelpful, but I'd prefer a vig in that case.
I could reread Swiss to try and get a read on him, but it would probably be a waste of time.
I really need to look into Sokr some more. I noted him as town near the beginning of the game, but I completely and utterly don't remember anything he's done since then at all.
Kantrip and July are some alignment, whatever.
And I also have to look some more into Sword to see if he's really as scummy as I'm thinking, and into RR because I'm voting for him.

back the **** up I've got this

If he's scum he's scum with John, and if that's the case he listed his scummates as BOTH his scumreads? I have trouble believing scum would do that, but since he was riding everyone's "obvtown" read on him could be a really smart move because it makes him look hella good if both his scummates died, and RR/John were both on the chopping block.

I also forgot about the Asdioh case that RR threatened but never produced, had that case actually materialized I would be a lot more convinced that the conflict between Asdioh and RR was TvS and not SvS.

When I saw this I thought Asdioh was Bulletproof or Vanilla Townie, as some of his other posts around this one looked very night-kill draw-ish. Then he claimed a town PR. It doesn't match up.

I'm bored of looking at Asdioh's posts already, can we lynch him please?

July and adum, thoughts?

I would actually prefer Adum's lynch, there is substance to your Asdioh lynch but I'm an Adum lynch is safer imo. We get a clear direction to go in toMorrow with his lynch, either Asdioh if he flips town or Swiss if he flips scum.

 

[Swiss]

July, are you saying that if Adum is scum, I must be? Why?

Why can Adum not be.....the scum tracker *ta-da*

 

[July]

Right. Read most of it, but not everything.

Kant, your case on Asdioh is a little meh. What do you think of Asdioh responding to it with "but im obv town"?

I believe I got redirected N1 and there is no scum jailer. Adum is scum with July. Lynch July first.

I reserve the right to change this stance when I've fully read. I skimmed on the train this morning and spent breakfast at work sat in sheer disbelief.

Interesting, especially considering what I just posted.

If we lynch Adum and he flips town, scum team is Asdioh/John. If we lynch Adum and he flips scum, we all know that his scummate is either you or (according to you and Asdioh) me. In that case, by all means push my case toMorrow, and I'll be pushing yours, and the beautiful thing about that is even if you manage to lynch me first you'll be next in line.

If you and Adum are the scumteam however, you can push my mislynch toDay, push Asdioh's mislynch toMorrow, and, if nks go through after both mislynches, you win the game.

 

[July]

If Adum is scum and has a gun, that proves Kantrip's role is legit. That means YOU have a gun too Swiss my dear, or did you forget about Kantrip's gunsmith results.

 

[Swiss]

Haven't read your whole post.

OK. Lol.

I'd be impressed if I also had a gun.

Guys, I hold my hands up. I'm actually the least accurate shooter ever. I've tried to kill people everynight.

 

[Swiss]

I can't hold it against you, though. You're doing the best a woman could.

 

[July]

I can't hold it against you, though. You're doing the best a woman could.

I try my best but its so hard to know what to do when I'm not in the kitchen.

@John: You been quite quiet on this whole thing. Who are your scumpicks? Thoughts on things other than Felipe's gambit?

 

[Asdioh]

Kant, your case on Asdioh is a little meh. What do you think of Asdioh responding to it with "but im obv town"?

I think my responses were a little better than that.

I also forgot about the Asdioh case that RR threatened but never produced, had that case actually materialized I would be a lot more convinced that the conflict between Asdioh and RR was TvS and not SvS.

RR unintentionally did something that would incriminate me after his death. Now he's rolling in his grave (laughing)
Or you're just his scummate.

Why can Adum not be.....the scum tracker *ta-da*

If he's scum, he's almost certainly scum tracker.



My problem is that in this game, literally everybody EXCEPT John has displayed a lot of townie intent in my eyes. I also have my suspicions on July, but I can never read her correctly. I'm not sure at this point if, for example, she's reconsidering her read on me because she is trying to consider all the options, or if she's scum and trying to keep as many doors open as possible.
As I've said before, Adum was one of my strongest townreads most of earlygame. This makes it harder to want to lynch him.

 

[Swiss]

Let's lynch July and see what happens.

Planning shmlanning, that's what I say.

 

[Asdioh]

rereading early game (again)
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=13643236&postcount=186
This post among others, interactions with RR, etc. give me both "swiss is town" vibes and "Swiss is not scummates with RR" vibes, so Swiss is town.
By the way, did you really think Seikend's first post was super scummy, or was that just pressure?

 

[Sokr]

ATM, I agree somewhat with July. I think an adum lynch would be best. However, I disagree that Swiss has to be scum if adumb is.

 

[Asdioh]

surprise, turns out i have to go to work early!

afk

swiss would you consider an adum lynch? i feel like there are more connections to be had regardless of flip

 

[Asdioh]

ATM, I agree somewhat with July. I think an adum lynch would be best. However, I disagree that Swiss has to be scum if adumb is.

If Swiss is scum, Adum is almost certainly scum. However, if Adum is scum, Swiss is more likely town.

It's weird, I know.

 

[Sokr]

If Swiss is scum, Adum is almost certainly scum. However, if Adum is scum, Swiss is more likely town.

It's weird, I know.

I wholeheartedly agree.

Vote Adumb

My phone spellchecks adumb to scumbag.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Yep, I was right. Swiss is definitely indy.


His continued insistence about the possibility of double town roleblockers in game with no flips and a small of all things is simply terrible. The only possible reason to do this is that he doesn't wanna be lynched on an asdioh townflip.

There is nothing in night action analysis that suggests a redirector beyond the fact that if he's telling the truth it's the only way that there's not a third roleblocker.


Which begs the question, why would a scumbag switch sokr and swords?

If Swiss is scum, Adum is almost certainly scum. However, if Adum is scum, Swiss is more likely town.

It's weird, I know.

No, swiss is just scum, but not mafia.

 

[Asdioh]

adumb, you're the one who keeps saying you saw swiss visit sokr and that if he was bussed/redirected you would have seen, remember?

mod: request votecount >=(

 

[adumbrodeus]

*thinks for a sec*


Alright, we have 8 players right now. Given a lynch and 2 NKs we're down to 5 which means we're in lylo, if we don't kill the indy today and we don't manage to either nk or lynch scum then we're in a situation where we have 3 scum to lynch and only 2 lynches remaining, so we would have to both lynch and nk perfectly to kill them all.

Given that we don't have a clear mafia, only speculation about teams, I'd prefer to deal with the clear indy first and clear the air for lylo tomorrow.

vote: swiss

 

[Kantrip]

I don't know what you're getting at. "a lynch and 2 NKs?" How can this happen? Our vig can protect, then it's only on NK. That post is just dumb. The logic of "go for the clear indy" makes no sense.

 

[adumbrodeus]

adumb, you're the one who keeps saying you saw swiss visit sokr and that if he was bussed/redirected you would have seen, remember?

mod: request votecount >=(

After it was proposed, remember? To point out that it was a silly possibility.


I was saying that he wasn't redirected. Initially this whole thing made me suspect you were scum, but given swiss' stubborn refusal to let it be the 1v1 that it so obviously is when he knows better, it points quite strongly to swiss-scum.


Now I'm merely pointing to the fact that there's no real evidence of a re-director.


Double roleblockers is idiotic given how much further it muddies a partial flips game.


Swiss is the play.

 

[Kantrip]

Explain how Swiss's refusal to make this a 1v1 explains Sword being roleblocked.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I don't know what you're getting at. "a lynch and 2 NKs?" How can this happen? Our vig can protect, then it's only on NK. That post is just dumb. The logic of "go for the clear indy" makes no sense.

There no clear NK target other then the doc/vig himself, if he doesn't kill it's 6, which means mylo instead of lylo. For little chance of success he simply reduces the overall number of town kills.


Give another round of night actions to resolve who the potential scum are.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Explain how Swiss's refusal to make this a 1v1 explains Sword being roleblocked.

Swiss isn't a roleblocker at all. There is a scum roleblocker however, asdioh is still a possibility but I rather doubt it at this junction.

 

[Kantrip]

Resolve the lylo dilemna in advance by lynching you to confirm your results/scumminess, give everyone another night of Night actions.

Three town investigatives is also dumb, and with Sword confirmed and i know I'm confirmed, you're lying if anyone is.

 

[Swiss]

Swiss isn't a roleblocker at all. There is a scum roleblocker however, asdioh is still a possibility but I rather doubt it at this junction.

Laughed IRL.

 

[Kantrip]

Swiss isn't a roleblocker at all. There is a scum roleblocker however, asdioh is still a possibility but I rather doubt it at this junction.

Really? You think we have two claimed roleblockers and another person who didn't claim RB but is a scum one?

 

[adumbrodeus]

Resolve the lylo dilemna in advance by lynching you to confirm your results/scumminess, give everyone another night of Night actions.

Three town investigatives is also dumb, and with Sword confirmed and i know I'm confirmed, you're lying if anyone is.

No, actually more investigative roles is one of the most popular ways to go in a power-heavy game, which this very obviously is.


What exactly do you expect it to be replaced by, given that this has to be a power-heavy game due to it's nature as a partial flip game?

 

[Kantrip]

I expect scum to have one of the investigatives. Likely you.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Really? You think we have two claimed roleblockers and another person who didn't claim RB but is a scum one?

And why does this not make sense?


It's rather rare for scum RBs to claim their role in the first place because the role is perceived as naturally scummy.

 

[Kantrip]

And yet you think another scum player (Swiss) claimed it and isn't even a roleblocker.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I expect scum to have one of the investigatives. Likely you.

You misunderstand, why is 3 investigatives unlikely given the need for a power-heavy town and the fact that addittional protects naturally break the game?


Keep in mind that none of our powers have the effective ability to hard confirm anyone town or scum which means that it effectively eliminates the potential brokeness of having that many investigative roles.

 

[adumbrodeus]

And yet you think another scum player (Swiss) claimed it and isn't even a roleblocker.

He was depending on his gravitas to carry him through it for the inexperienced players, and he expected that the experienced players would never believe that he would as scum claim a scum roleblocker.

Note how quickly he managed to change your opinion and asdioh's when both of you had me as obvious-town not a moment before?

 

[Gova]

1. adumbrodeus (1) Sokr
2. John2k4 ()
4. Sokr ()
5. Kantrip ()
8. Swiss (1) adumbrodeus
10. Felipe_9595 ()
11. July ()
12. Asdioh (2) Kantrip, Felipe

Not voting - Joh2k4, Swiss, July, Asdioh

With 8 playing, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is December 13th at 11:59 PM CST (GMT-6).

 

[Kantrip]

Assuming I'm not paranoid and Sword's ability were to be used, then we do have enough to confirm people. Sure, maybe not on our own, but working together.

You're still suggesting the most absurd things.