Britches and Hose Mafia - Game Over!

[#HBC | Dancer]

Red Ryu, Swords, and John. Then Asdioh and Soup if they feel like it. That's the order they should weigh in on this. Hurry up about it too; the longer you take, the more scummy you are.

...

lol whoops

I thought this was in order (RR > me > John), but I guess not.

Okay then, the response:

Well, okay.

First I'll like to clear up that in the end, I think Kantrip is town in this. From no PoV can I see Kantrip do this as scum. I don't think it would be worth it from a scum PoV to just randomly throw away one of their members (one of whom looks very townie, btw) just to out the cop.

Now, what that basically leaves me with is a town Kantrip who is either pulling a gambit, or has a legit guilty. Maybe he actually has a town result and is just pulling a gambit (as you can see, this is where the WIFOM part comes in).

From a cop point of view, some of his actions are wierd. I would think that he would claim earlier as a cop. Also, why go after the people Adumb was attacking (like me! ) if he had a guilty on him? Why is he asking people now what they think of it?

However, the gambit PoV REALLY doesn't make sense, just becuase I think the idea that Kantrip breadcrumbed just to pull a gambit latter seems way too elaborate. Occum's razor and all. Adumb's immediate reaction to it is bad (as in scummy). Kantrip's suspicion that he's insane is paranoid, but believable.

There's one other thing that I'm debating pointing out, but it could be bad if I do. Just trust me on that, it's what keeps me from fully believing Kantrip.

Overall I believe Kantrip more than I don't.

vote: Adumb

 

[Asdioh]

I would think that he would claim earlier as a cop.

Nah, the Day becomes a waste if you start it out by calling out a guilty. Scum's reactions after that point can be faked. See: D.gray Man, where the cop outed his guilty on July immediately, and then my scummate and I could craft our reactions easily.

Your point about Kantrip being town makes sense to me though. As much as I'd like to catch him as scum to redeem myself, it seems unlikely...

 

[Swiss]

I'll hold of commenting on that until everyone has weighed in.

Wouldn't want to bias the results.

 

[Asdioh]

Which is going to take until practically deadline, the way things are going.

Can we at least agree on a john or RR lynch toDay? Look at John's last post, and the followup... oh wait, there wasn't one.

ToNight Kantrip could investigate himself or someone else to determine his sanity, so we'll definitely know what we're doing toMorrow.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I believe Kantrip 100%, whether it being a gambit or not, i think Kantrip is town and the lynch on Adumb is viable even on a town-flip, which i doubt.

two things pique my interest, if Adumb does flip town, that back-door option that Kantrip has of unconfirmed sanity could lead to some interesting results, i will have to see.

i will hold my vote off of Adum until a vote-count, because i'm lazy and haven't even read the last page.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I had a TvT read (as i mentioned before) on Kantrip v. Adum early game, this latest interaction and guilty on Adum makes me think they aren't aligned, as this doesn't seem like a planned situation.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

SvS is out of the market, basically.
TvS is possible TvT is even more possible.

 

[Swiss]

Soup, stop being obtuse.

 

[Kantrip]

Waiting on one of John2k4 or Red Ryu at this point. The one that responds first is probably town and the one who responds after (or doesn't respond) is scum.

 

[Swiss]

Kantrip you know your avvy looks like GP and Renek had a terrible, terrible failure of a child.

 

[Kantrip]

I don't know who either of those are. *shrug*

 

[John2k4]

What am I responding to that you are looking for, Kanty?
I've been reading, and there's been a good share of general questions that I'm not sure who they are directed at, so feel free to point me to a post number or something.

 

[Kantrip]

I have a guilty result on adum, John. Are you honestly telling me you have nothing to say about that?

Do you think I'm town? Do you believe my result? Do you think it's an accurate result if legit? Do you think I'm scum if it's illegit?

On top of that, why don't you tell me who we're lynching toDay.

 

[Swiss]

Kantrip disappoints me.

John, who do you think is lying, if anyone, in the last few pages?

 

[John2k4]

Ah yes, your guilty result. Part of me wants to believe it, and I will accept it if I can go back and find the crumb you were referring to.
I feel that Kanty is town.

-
I'd be good lynching Adumb today.
Vote: Adumb

 

[adumbrodeus]

What am I responding to that you are looking for, Kanty?
I've been reading, and there's been a good share of general questions that I'm not sure who they are directed at, so feel free to point me to a post number or something.

Stop being obtuse, weigh in on whether or not I'm scum and why in light of kantrip's claim.

SvS is out of the market, basically.
TvS is possible TvT is even more possible.

Explain why.

 

[John2k4]

@Kantrip
If we lynch Adumb and he flips scum, you are 100% town to me.
If he flips town, I seriously question your cop claim, and the sanity of it.

-
Do you have any info on your sanity if you are the cop?

 

[Kantrip]

Why do I disappoint you, Swiss? Is it because I don't know who GP or Renek are?

@John, I again have to question if you've really been reading.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Why do I disappoint you, Swiss? Is it because I don't know who GP or Renek are?

Yes, and so am I.

 

[Kantrip]

Hey Asdioh, while we're waiting, could you tell me about that "posting restriction" of yours?

 

[Asdioh]

What am I responding to that you are looking for, Kanty?
I've been reading, and there's been a good share of general questions that I'm not sure who they are directed at, so feel free to point me to a post number or something.

Ah yes, your guilty result. Part of me wants to believe it, and I will accept it if I can go back and find the crumb you were referring to.
I feel that Kanty is town.

-
I'd be good lynching Adumb today.
Vote: Adumb

@Kantrip
If we lynch Adumb and he flips scum, you are 100% town to me.
If he flips town, I seriously question your cop claim, and the sanity of it.

-
Do you have any info on your sanity if you are the cop?

unvote
vote: John2k4

Hey Asdioh, while we're waiting, could you tell me about that "posting restriction" of yours?

It was pretty fun

 

[Sokr]

Can we please lynch John? Unless we get a better read/this cop thing gets resolved. His posts are starting to really annoy me.

For now

Vote: John

And no, I don't have a case against him, I don't really have a case against anyone. Well, I could probably think of one or two but not enough to actually think they are legitimate scum.

 

[John2k4]

What specifically about my posts is annoying you, Sokr?

 

[Sokr]

@John

what do i read? These questions weren't directed specifically at me so i won't answer them. what did you want me to answer? It doesn't seem like you're reading, you aren't doing anything, and everyone's having to hold your hand. You're currently, as swiss would say, "useless".

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

@Asdioh: Are you for a John lynch toDay? Would you be willing to go in that direction?

@Swiss: Still into the John lynch? If so, what keeps him from just being dumb town?

Also feel free about ignoring that question I asked you awhile ago (about who else you're looking into besides RR/John. With recent events, I don't really care.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Actually, a better version of the same question for Asdioh:

Is your vote one were you want to lynch him, or is it just for pressure? If the latter, then how willing are you to lynch him toDay?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Vote: John2k4

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Kantrip I still want to know what your results look like, this matters for later.

Unvote

Failure to answer this results in death.

~

Vote: Ambrodeus

Why are people not voting on the cop guilty? If Kantrip is to be trusted like this, which I will fully with how he gets his results, then he needs to be lynched.

John is possible scum, Adumb is confirmed scum. This is a no brainier.

Swords is cleared as not a scummate, though I suspect indy and I do not care to chase that atm.
Kantrip is town due to his play to the early pushes from Adumb and being the cop.

I'll need a full reread on a scum flip to confirm this. Town flip doesn't give me much at all, I'm still in the eh category.

Possible scum picks whom I see as likely aligned with Adumb, Asdioh and John2k4.

I've begone to dislike Asdioh more than before with his play today, John is turning up more scum with his active posts.

Don't feel like explaining atm, I wanna sleep.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

Vote: adumbrodeus

I'm an idiot.

 

[Swiss]

RR, I'm OK with trusting Kant over Adum (who wouldn't be) - but if we do get this wrong, and Adum flips town, we will have to lynch Kantrip.

You're OK with this plan?

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

RR why am I cleared from being mafia?

Swiss, my 985.

 

[Asdioh]

Swiss, you mind if I post my thoughts on #988 before RR responds?

 

[Swiss]

Yes, I do mind.

 

[Asdioh]

That's why I asked :3

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

RR, I'm OK with trusting Kant over Adum (who wouldn't be) - but if we do get this wrong, and Adum flips town, we will have to lynch Kantrip.

You're OK with this plan?

We have to.

Alternative is, leaving them alone. Leaving them alone is a set up for disaster.

11 atm, lynch one, goes to 9, lynch the other, go to 7. Number wise it's perfectly fine and avoids kingmaker with an indy, if there is one.

RR why am I cleared from being mafia?

Swiss, my 985.

Interactions.

 

[Swiss]

Post away, Asdioh.

Adum, I'll leave the ball in your court. I'm sure it's clear to you who I want dead.

 

[felipe_9595]

Nobody replaced me yet?

 

[Gova]

1. adumbrodeus (4) Kantrip, Sworddancer, John2k4, RR
2. John2k4 (4) Swiss, Asdioh, Sokr, Soup
4. Sokr ()
5. Kantrip (1) adumbrodeus
6. Sworddancer. ()
8. Swiss ()
9. Soupamario ()
10. Felipe_9595 ()
11. July ()
12. Asdioh ()
13. Red Ryu ()

Not voting - Felipe, July

With 11 playing, it takes 6 to lynch!

Deadline is December 2nd at 11:59 PM CST (GMT-6)!

 

[felipe_9595]

Okay... So.... Nobody have replaced me yet.

What is the plan???? Adumb Vs Kantrip?

 

[adumbrodeus]

Huh.

Not what I expected to happen.

Adum, I just wrote a long post. I'm not going to post it yet.

I want you to:
1) Analyse if Kantrip is scum or town
2) If town, is he actually the cop?
3) If scum, why?
4) If town & cop is the claim real, or fake
5) If real, what happened
4) If fake, why you, why now

Also include any other information you think might be necessary. You have one post, then I make my

decision as to what I do. No-one else weigh in on what they think wrt Kantrip/Adum until Adum does. Because I

really need to see him post without the 'thoughts of the masses'

I'm not gonna give all other information unless you don't get it, I want to avoid that unless I'm forced to

claim. If you don't get it then I overestimated you and try rereading my posts carefully.

He's not the cop, it would bring significant balance issues into play if there was a cop. The possibility

exists of weaker investigative roles like a reporter, a neighborizer, or a gunsmith, but not a cop. I guess

the possibility technically exists for a paranoid cop since cop sanities occasionally appear in the SWF meta,

but I find that extremely unlikely.


Note his 863, where he comments for the first time about my townieness or lack thereof. It's an upgrade from his null at best attitude which he had last game day. This struck me as really odd against a claimed guilty, he's not trying to pile votes against me, why? Why not attempt to take out the person whose obvious-scum according to you?


Then rereading the interaction, and this sort of stuck out.

How was his reaction "ehhhhhhhhhhhhhh."? Explain please.

I also want to hear other players check in on this.

But I want you to tell me if you believe it right nooooow, asdioh!

Why do you believe me 100%, Soup?

I see a strong intent on these, he doesn't seem as interested in the main copclaim and forcing everyone to vote for me as he is at trying to get people to comment on and react to claim.



His 940 just makes it blatently obvious when he agrees with me and prefers pushing people to respond so we can get more reactions.


So what have we learned by this?

Kantrip is town.
John is scum.
Asdioh is almost definitely town.
Soup is leaning town instead of solid town
RR is more townie from this, leaves him nullish
Sokr is still town
Swords is scum
Swiss is town
Got nothing on felipe and july