No bingo is more useful then scum surviving past lylo unless it's an auto-win, you're thinking of it just as something they want to accomplish instead of considering it's power as a deterrence tool and I sure as hell don't believe that you never considered that possibility, you've been around the block WAY too many times for that.
If we accept your conclusions and scum chose to make 13 their strongest player all scum needs to do is confirm their guy's number and it's a free trip for him to lylo, especially if it's later revealed that bingo is very powerful. With your plan of passing it the likely lynch target, this gets revealed when he's vulnerable, wouldn't that be perfect for scum?
um, I DID consider this. as evidenced by the post you just quoted. Like i said if they put their scum player on 13 than they're trying to bus the scummate. Unless they don't care about getting bingos in which case then yea they'll put scum on 13 cuz it looks better for them.
I'm operating under the assumption that scum wants bingos. Your alternative is that they're foregoing bingos in favor of making one of the scum players look good for being on 13. This is already a huge gambit and risk that 13 won't get lynched and that they won't need whatever the bingo thing is. Also, when lylo hits, it looks REALLY bad if 13 hasn't been night-killed yet, ESPECIALLY if bingo would be possible by night-killing 13. (Which i'm confident that near end-game, that will be the case)
even if scum is going the route you're suggesting, DISCUSSING THIS IS USEFUL AS ****.
ok so assuming scum is going your route. they would want 13 revealed sooner rather than later. chaco and orbo didn't choose to out 13. would you think that makes them less likely to be scum?
I take back my earlier statement though, this was useful, certainly made me more confident of macscum, especially if we end up with a scum on slot 13 or mac himself is slot 13.
thanks for gracefully losing the argument.
(also I would laugh if I was 13, and I agree it'd be a tad-bit incriminating, but not very much imo since this strat is still risky and the chance that mafia did it is still low)
Deterrence.
Scum's positioning depends entirely on their plans the fact is that no board positions will actually give us scum or even a reasonable chance at knowing scum until we have a better idea of how scum is looking to manipulate the board. However, certain analysises of where scum might put themselves are scummy, as oyu just illustrated, thank you
i still fail to see how any of my analysis has been scummy. You yourself agreed that discussing this **** IS useful for scumhunting. That's like saying that I'm scummy for discussing why scum might have decided to night kill some person.
should I as town not brainstorm this board **** at all? would that be way better for you? or should I have just kept these thoughts out of the thread?
but lemme make sure i'm getting you straight. You think I'm scummy cuz i started analyzing this board stuff openly and you think that only scum would want to do that so they could use the board stuff to manipulate town. And it's even worse cuz i brought up the idea that 13 is very much likely not to be scum so I could probably be using that to highlight me or one of my scummates as town if 13 is revealed. Is that correct?
quote="adumbrodeus, post: 17415789, member: 70774"]
You're talking about "lets just stop scumhunting and discuss the board", which is still substantially info over analysis. Without actual contrasting of numbers to alignments we have no way to to actually use the board to scumhunt as you suggest.
I'm trying to paint you as scummy since I think you're scum, what's hard to understand about that?
[/quote]
i never said we should stop scumhunting. why do you keep making it seem that way?
How is there no way to use the board to scumhunt, literally a ****ton of the analysis i've been talking about is specifically for helping determine who scum / town is and how scum might be trying to operate in this game. Which is what scumhunting is