Mission complete. X1 is scum, Nabe is indy. I'm thouroughly convinced. Swiss is so obvtown it isn't even funny and J I'm sorry for letting my instinct get to me before re-reading and thinking you were scummy just because you had a poorly crumbed and non-favorable claim. Anyway, here's my analysis.
Concerning X1 and why he his Cello's partner:
Early on in the game, X1 and Cello barely interact at all. Neither of them seem to be addressing each other in any significant manner, until Cello's inactivity comes under the spot light and deadline draws near. Then what happens? X1 goes on a spree of posts all pushing for Cello's lynch. What's this all about? All of a sudden he just decided that pushing for an inactive over his other reads was a good idea minutes to deadline, all conveniently when people started picking up on Cello's inactivity and general unhelpfulness? Wow, that's not the most obvious bus in the book. And posts like these are quite telling.
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11860887&postcount=243
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11861208&postcount=271
Where is he all of a sudden getting this confidence that Cello is scum? More importantly why not indy? We know it wasn't from a PR since well, it was day 1 AND even if he had used his powers, we know now thanks to his "claim" that he couldn't have had any info to help him draw that distinction anyway. So where is he drawing the distinction from? Oh yeah, the fact that that's his buddy. Wouldn't you think that if X1 was ACTUALLY this confident (somehow) that Cello was scum this early in the game he'd have, ya know, put some pressure on him prior and been grilling him? That would actually be genuine scum hunting, and not last minute bussing near deadline in a pathetic attempt to get cred from an inactive, apathetic scum partner.
Beyond all that is the issue of the claim? Why in gods name would Cello claim "Black Bear, VT"? If he wanted to fish for a PR, don't you think claiming, uh, a PR makes more sense? Of course not though, he wouldn't do what makes sense because this was pretty obviously a last ditch plot to maximize the effect of the bus and help set up X1's safeclaim's legitimacy in the late game. How in the world would Cello even
know that Black Bear was a PR in this game? There's absolutely NO INDICATION of what PR's might be, and there are PLENTY of bears outside of black bear, so I don't exactly buy it that Cello just got lucky and "happened" to claim what X1 would later claim. So how did he decide? Oh yeah, his partner had it as a safeclaim and he was using it to help set him up.
All of this combined with how unverifiable X1's claim is (there is no way for us to cross check any of your claims at this point in the game), and the fact that I don't see a way to figure a vig into this setup (even a one shot vig) and keep it balanced and not crazy swingy all makes it pretty obvious that X1 is our last mafia.
Concerning who the indy is:
So, since Swiss has been pretty obvtown all game, and Nabe's claim pretty much clears him (I'm willing to believe that Nabe can both track AND immunize every night, definitely not unheard of for indies to have multiple powers at night, reference All star mafia for perfect example [SK tracker]), he's out of consideration and doesn't require explanation.
Now Savage's claim IMO, is the weaker of the two when comparing Nabe vs. Savage. Watcher/voyeur is far less informative than a tracker, and just as difficult to verify, which makes it a great safeclaim and/or indy/scum power to give to a player. That's why, at first glance I though "well Nabe just cleared Swiss which helps us and thus is protown, and J's lame *** crumbs + weak/unverifiable claim make him look reallllllly bad, so he's probably the indy". However, after re-reading the game, it has become incredibly obvious to me that Nabe is the indy, despite the claim disparity.
Why Savage is town:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11862127&postcount=284
Townie recklessness, at its finest. If this is indy Savage pulling the ****** card as a gambit, then bravo, you've done it quite well. I really just can't see indy immunizer Savage feigning ignorance of what is OPENLY ANNOUNCED, MOD CONFIRMED INFORMATION REGARDING THE INDY. Like holy crap, if this was all just a gambit to be "so bad at being the indy that he cant be the indy", then hats off to you because you sold the act and sold it well. Though missing information like this due to skimming is typically a scum tell, I just don't see indy savage thinking that pulling this, putting in so much effort into that post, running all those numbers, and ultimately just pretending to not understand how the game was designed and draw a ton of attention to himself, would be a good plan of action.
Outside of this, Savage has maintained pretty good activity and has had consistent contributions throughout the game. Nothing, other than his shoddy claim, stands out to me as significantly scummy. There is too much about his play that points to him being a townie.
Why Nabe is the indy:
This became obvious when I was reading his interactions with Kuz while deadline was approaching. Kuz was pushing for him hard and called him as the indy at one point. This is how Nabe reacted.
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11927265&postcount=538
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11928903&postcount=543
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11943944&postcount=576
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11944314&postcount=580
LOOK AT THE OBSESSION OVER THE INDY ACCUSATION. Looks like Kuzi hit a nerve. Why would a townie care whether or not someone his calling him scummy or indy scummy? Point is, he's being called scummy and would want to know why. To a genuine townie, what's so important about distinguishing between why someone thinks you are indy vs. scum? There isn't, hence, this isn't a genuine town reaction, as if the sheer obsession over the indy accusation wasn't telling enough.
Then Kuzi goes on to DO ****ING WORK on Nabe with his omfgepicxbawkshuge case on him which
should have been the nails on on the coffin for Nabe IMO but somehow he managed to dodge the bullet.
There's also the whole ordeal with Kuzi fake hammering as a gambit and Nabe
walking right into it. Nabe then proceeds to get all butthurt about being tricked and pretty clearly out of frustration tries to discredit Kuzi and make him look scummy in order to try to deflect attention away from the fact that he gave the exact reaction Kuzi was looking for. TownKuzi had Nabe by the balls and he kneejerk reacted, just like Nabe kneejerk reacted to my accusation of him here on D4.
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11920711&postcount=508
^^^ Town Kuzi gettin' off on Nabe. You guys should seriously review this exchange if you still have any doubt in your mind at this point.
Oh and there's also this little tidbit that kind of confused me:
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11946727&postcount=603
I was like WTF HOW DID NABE GET LYNCHED OVER KUZI IF THIS QUOTE IS LEGIT, but then I figure it was probably just Swiss trolling. Swiss please confirm or deny this. If it's a legit quote though, WTF WERE YOU DOING AND WHY THE HELL IS NABE STILL ALIVE?!
As for Nabe's claim, now that I look at it again, it fits as an indy safeclaim, probably because he actually IS a tracker, just an indy one.
http://www.smashboards.com/showpost.php?p=11992962&postcount=736
Of course on D4 when he has 3 people immunized all he's looking for is a quick and easy lynch. Right out of the gates, completely unprovoked, he claims to put pressure on Savage and hope for a smooth lynch so he can immunize his last target and take the game. If he really was genuinely thinking about all this game balance **** that he took his sweet time to write up and post for all of us, don't you think that his eagerness to claim sort of contradicts the conclusions he draws? If he was really conscious of and wary of the independent and the threat he posed this late in the game, why in the world would he immediately vote for a player who he tracked to a corpse, when at this point it was pretty damn clear the indy wasn't killing people, the scum were. Shouldn't he, if he was a truly responsible townie, have realized that lynching scum wasn't the best choice, or even a safe choice, at this point in the game? The answer is yes, but since he's the indy, he doesn't care. He just wanted that lynch, hoping Savage was the final scum (and thus, the last threat to his victory), so he could just immunize his final target at night and claim victory.
Also, concerning the fact that he cleared Swiss here in endgame via his claim, even though on the surface that seems protown, it is also pro-indy. It serves as an attempt to buy support from a townie (who he has likely already immunized and thus, doesn't want to kill), in order to garner support for his wagon on what he thought was the last scum. Plain and simple, clearing one townie at this point doesn't matter for him, since all he needs to do is lynch the last scum and get his last immunize off.
@ Savage: Forget the stuff I said about indy alpha striking. I was assuming that the indy was BP but upon further review and thought, I realized that in this setup the immunizer not being BP (but simply passively poison proof) made a lot more sense.
Vote: Nabe
If this isn't enough to convince you guys I'll go ahead and pick apart Nabe's terrible counter argument to my attack on him earlier today, but I really don't think that should be necessary. Also, if anything isn't clear obviously feel free to ask for clarification.
