Bear and Fish 11: Over. Everyone loses, Town loses a little less

[Swiss]

So why didn't you crumb?

Also, are you informed of 'known' actions or 'all' actions? This is painfully important distinction in the phrasing of your role. I need to know.

 

[X1-12]

why dey go offline


no-one else char claim until they do

 

[X1-12]

Nabe, if you were worried that I was mafia, why did you track J?

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Hard to think of something nonobvious to crumb with a role like this. I prefer not to get found out. "Follow my nose" seemed a little blunt. Anyway, I generally don't crumb.

I don't have either of those phrasings in my role.

 

[Swiss]

My bad. I got mixed up with roles. Thought you claimed watcher.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I thought J was our indy. It would've been nice if I had tracked a remaining VT obv, but luck was not on my side.

 

[X1-12]

Thinking about it but I have trouble seeing J as responsible for the NKs

I'm gonna sleep on it (yeah I didn't sleep last night I was at a party)

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

X1, I saw Larx targeting GLG. He confirmed as much.

So, if I'm scum, then I'm scum tracker. So if you don't think Larx made the kills, then you either think I'm scum tracker, or you're admitting to being one of two scum with FF being the second, since J and Swiss and myself being town leaves you two.

 

[Swiss]

If Nabe was scum tracker, that would make J obv indie. Did GLG flip immunized?

 

[Swiss]

J cannot be indie.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Swiss, do you think X1 immunizer is a no, the way he pushed the Kuz lynch? Or would getting rid of someone he genuinely thought was mafia outweigh the benefits of keeping around all three of his immunization targets? Do you think immunizer's wincon requires the mafia to be gone?

 

[Swiss]

Immunizers WinCon is that they win when all remaining players are immune, regardless of faction.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

If that's the case, then that would make FF the immunizer, and X1 town/mafia hinging on the alignment of Larx. But that seems like a hard wincon to achieve -- although, when is an indy win easy?

It occurs to me that the flips so far have stuck to the flavour, or that is to say, to real life. And I can't think of any creature that immunizes other creatures against poison, aside from perhaps humans. A park ranger? Matches the wincon you suggest.

 

[Swiss]

We're lynching whoever we decide is indie toDay, and X1 toMorrow.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

I'd like to hear Larx's other night results and character claim before I decide where my own vote is going. Although IMO the character claim is obvious if he's claiming voyeur, but we certainly shouldn't feed it to him.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

A full game analysis probably won't come for awhile, if at all, however I will be going over key pieces of info related to the flips we have to determine who our indy is and who Cello's scum buddy is.

What is our mass claim order?

@ Swiss: Why can Savage not be indy? I may find the answer to this on my own as a re-read and I think I have an idea of why you said this but I want to hear it from you.

@ Nabe: I want the full rationale behind each one of your track targets.

@ Savage: Who else did you target with your ability and why? Also, provide as specific of role detail as you can as far as your power is concerned and what you can observe using it (without getting modkilled obv).

 

[Swiss]

After J finishes his claim you, then X1. Maybe the other way round. I'll decide later.

If J were indie, GLG would be 'immune' and dead, not just dead. Indie cannot kill. He could be scum.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

@ Nabe: I want the full rationale behind each one of your track targets.

Sure.
GLG plays terribad and scummy when he's town and when he's scum. Good N1 choice for a track because it's easier than reading him (and I always think I can change his play, lol)

Swiss is Swiss, not much else to say. Swiss/X1 interactions are always worth looking at. Should've been my N1.

Larx is 95% J; J is always scummy to me and should've been my N2 for that alone, but I had to do Swiss first.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Immunizers WinCon is that they win when all remaining players are immune, regardless of faction.

Are you certain of this? If so how? If not, what is your conjecture that led you to this conclusion?

@ Mod: Does this game follow Natural Action Resolution for determining the order and priority of all night actions?

 

[Swiss]

It would be the most likely non-broken set-up.

Could be immunize scum team but w/e

 

[~The Savage Nymph~]

J side speaking

Alright you guys~ Finally I can announce one of my favorite PRs and in this game it is officially awesome.

Full Claim:

Sun Bear, Town Voyeur. This means that I choose a target during the night phase of the game in which I see what is done to them. (We should all know this role. AIM mafia, or Oddworld, or FF just being an elder ) Let me just start by answering a question people will be asking. "Did you crumb?" Naturally as a PR I would crumb. I crumbed my role (a bit) and my character I have been crumbing all game in every single one of my posts! :D Some of you are gonna be "lolwthishetalkingabout" But it's actually painstakingly obvious if you can guess from the name of my character. Sun.

Swiss, you off all people should remember I was extremely adamant in my changing of color or distinguishing who was who by color on this hydra. Reason being is because I was crumbing the Sun part of my flavour with all of my posts being yellow which is the color of the sun. Yes, Larxene in herself is blonde and uses yellow to define her but it was just coincidence the way it played out. So this is one of my crumbs now which is the color yellow. Now let's get to the other points of my crumbs.

@Swiss: Domo-kun! <3 Be nice and i wonder if the rumor/tradition is still gonna keep on going. I told my friend to keep an eye on you. Will she listen or will you trick her? What will you do Swissy? Must I troll you more?

This was my first crumb and albeit it wasn't a very good one. Keep an eye on you is the key part of this. However afterwards I realized I sounded more like a watcher but in the end it conveys the same message of watching what is happening to someone.

What is this? I really don't even know. Why such the hostility towards him putting a vote on you? How much hostility would you bear towards me if I were to do this?

Thought this was a typo didn't ya? Noooope~ I know how to spell my words. But yes I crumbed Bear as well. It's there in plain aaaand I did it again as well:

J Side Speaking

It's relevant to me to see you answer questions you have been asked. You have dodged EVERY one you can and/or given the bear minimum of what is required of you to answer.

I didn't do it just once, but twice which shows that it wasn't just a slip of hand crumbing bear. I decided to crumb bear but it was kindof well subtle to say the least. ._.

*FACEFLOOR*

Grawr, REALLY GLG?! Are you doing this to try and get Larxy even madder at you? That is what you post? THAT

Grawr? Really does that sound like me at all? Okay shut up maybe a little but really? That's what I think a bear sounds like at least ^^" It's basically a sound crumb which I did with other situations as well:

What I suggest everyone does? Pile the votes on GLG as if he had a Guilty verdict on him!!! Rawr!

Bear's rawr too right? If they don't then oops but I crumbed it here as well.

Dodge it.....I dare you to. *kunai gleam* I would love to peg all of these in you.

How do things gleam again? They need sunlight in order to do so~

Grrrrrrrrrrrrr.......

Awww and you thought I was genuinely grrring but nope that was a crumb as well because this really was not needed but I thought I should crumb that in as well since I did not have a grr crumb yet. After this crumb I believe that's all I could think of for sound effects....^^"

That leaves 4 people/roles left. With this set-up is it plausible to assume there is no cop...hmm. I am thinking more on the lines we have a Voyeur in this game since it would make a lot of sense however in this game that would be an extremely powerful role.

So much scum from you it hurts my eyes to hurt your posts.

Okay now this one was a big crumb right here. I even mentioned the role Voyeur in my post in which I wanted to make people consider there is a voyeur in the game. Out of all the PRs to pick and choose from why not choose something like Tracker or Watcher that are equally beneficial? Noooope~ I decided to use my own role here which albeit was risky. I believe my PR is quiet a powerful one in the sense that I see if anyone is poisoned the night (bad for mafia) see if anyone is immunized (bad against indie) see if anyone is NK'd or tried too (good for town) oooor see if anyone is targetted by another PR which helps strengthen their claim. (good for town)

I also did another crumb in mentioning that his scum hurts my eyes. Whyyyy? Cuz my eyes are my weapon to be the creepy voyeur.

Also I wasn't saying you were pulling the n00by card I am just warning you to not to because if you do. *shines Kunai* You get these instead of my fists ^^.

You need sunlight to shine 8). Another Sun Bear crumb.

@Larx: I don't think it matters if you're on a CPU or not, w.r.t. claiming a character. Surely you remember what type of bear you are? And you're sitting in thread and refreshing, meaning you're actively reading. Drop us a line.

Jeeeez gimme a break will ya? I left my itouch on when my friends were over and I wasn't refreshing o_o I mean how can you possibly know that if I was. (this is getting Cello creepy with the stalker stuff)

@ Savage: Who else did you target with your ability and why? Also, provide as specific of role detail as you can as far as your power is concerned and what you can observe using it (without getting modkilled obv).

N1: Targetted Swiss - Results Nothing ;_;
N2: Targetted Nabe - Results Nothing ;_;
N3: Targetted GLG - Resutls!!! He is NK'd -_-"

I'll say more when I can but I have to go for the night.

 

[X1-12]

FF has a point, glg could have been immunised after his death ergo he didnt flip immune.

 

[#HBC | J]

I would have seen him being immunized along with NK'd X1~

 

[X1-12]

hurr durr wat if u r indy doe?

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

It would be the most likely non-broken set-up.

Could be immunize scum team but w/e

I agree with the idea that the immunizer is probably a take on the marker from Toms original FFVII. Definitely makes sense as the least broken design.

FF has a point, glg could have been immunised after his death ergo he didnt flip immune.

Yeah this is what I thought at first but...

I would have seen him being immunized along with NK'd X1~

If J's claim isn't BS then this is true.

So here's the deal. I'm VT. Obviously this makes me look like ****.

However, one thing we can pretty safely say here, is that Swiss is a good guy, since claims says he hasn't targeted anyone, or been targeted. Either way, since we're dealing with loner scum and indy atm, it's not like Swiss is being covered for by a buddy's fake claim.

So, looking at this game's build, I have a really hard time seeing town having a poison blocker, tracker AND voyeur. Though we still are waiting on X1's claim, my inclination is that one of these two PR claims is lying, though maybe not entirely.

In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the immunizer also had a track or voyeur power on top of being able to pick to immunize people, in order to help give the indy a better chance at a win. Think about it, a well placed voyeur watch or track could give the indy very useful information on who to immunize the next night, so as to prevent deaths via poison at the hands of the mafia poisoner who could be chipping away at targets he wants to immunize. Or, better yet, he could use that info to NOT immunize people the mafia have poisoned so as to hasten to thinning of the game and increase his chances of winning.

Personally I think J's crumbs are realllllllllly lame but that's just me. Point is though, the crumbs are coming to me as a null tell because I think who ever is lying is simply lying about their alignment, but not the fact that they have the power they claim.

X1, wrap up the claims for us. Gonna have to do some hardcore analysis afterward to pinpoint who's the most likely liar.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Spoiler

Yeah, that's about right.

Before I get into this post, I want you to know: I absolutely expected a claim of this caliber from you.

The animal alone: totally believable. This claim makes sense with voyeur, and voyeur in general makes sense with the balance. Tracker/voyeur/poison doc with mafX/mafpoisoner and indy is pretty balanced, and there is very likely a voyeur in the setup because of the immunizer, like an arsonist/poisoner/piper game might have a voyeur as well. As such, it's most likely that you are town and somehow inexplicably decided to choose GLG and got really freaking unlucky.

Question: Why did you decide to use your ability on GLG? YesterDay, I distinctly remember a post where you said GLG was our scumpick at the end of the Day -- I'll look again for confirmation, but regardless, what were you expecting to see? In fact, extend that to all your targets and explain your rationale for each. Document the specific posts that led you to target those players if applicable.

Then we get to the crumbs.
You do understand the premise of this game, right? The entire town is made up of bears. If you're not a bear, you're a fish and would like to appear as a bear. This means nothing. What a completely useless thing to do.

That leaves us with two things: the colour yellow, and "gleaming". Both of which are just as easily in reference to your related KH character, by your own admission.

These are the most useless crumbs I have ever seen. It is only because you are you and would make crumbs like these as town that I have any inclination to think you might be town. That, and that there is very likely a voyeur in our setup.

Go ahead and answer the question I've asked above, while we hear a claim from X1.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Thought this was a typo didn't ya? Noooope~ I know how to spell my words.

Meaningless for the sake of scumhunting, but I chuckled here since "bear in mind" is the correct phrase. Bear as in carry. There's no error.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

Actually. Swiss, if it's okay with you, I'd like to hear FF's reads before X1 claims.

 

[#HBC | Nabe]

A look at balance

Start with 2v9 mountainous -- slightly anti-town. Add the indy; town and mafia suffer. Swap a goon with the mafia poisoner, giving mafia the ability to perform two kills every night after N1. (Note: we know this inference to be true, because there would be no motive to use poison in place of a regular kill. And we know that the mafia does possess a regular kill: one player has died every Night. Thus, the only benefit of poison must be multiple kills.) Out of fairness, the other mafioso is nothing more powerful than a goon -- mafia voyeur would be useless because it brings the mafia no closer to finding a PR or indy. Mafia tracker is a possibility but is too powerful when combined with the poisoner. Mafia doesn't need a tracker; two kills a night is what they use to sniff out roles. Brute force.

But two kills a Night, every Night after N1, is too much. Immunizer helps, but town is still at a distinct disadvantage. Cue the poison doctor. Tracker to help scout out scum as well. Is voyeur warranted? Voyeur is common in games with night flavours like poison or arson, and immunization fits in well with that mix. Good pick.

Goon
Poisoner
Immunizer
Tracker
Voyeur
Poison Doc
5 VTs

Is this balanced? Absolutely, if a bit swingy. Town can find scum at Day and Night and is only in moderate danger from the poisoner, thanks to some good roles and scumhunting as well. Mafia has their brute force method, which could be expected to bring them a couple excellent nights of kills. Indy, as long as they survive, has the mafia doing their work for them with a little luck; killing the players they didn't immunize.

What do we know for sure? The following: we know there's a poisoner, a poison doc, and the immunizer. We also know that I'm a tracker, because I called Larx out on being a targeting role and Larx confirmed it. Larx is either mafia or voyeur. I am town/mafia tracker but I've explained why mafia tracker is unnecessary, and why we know that mafia had the potential for two kills a night.

It is very likely that the above is our setup. As long as X1 doesn't claim voyeur or something equally probable, my scum are X1 and FF.

Night all.

 

[SummonerAU]

@Frozen: No, but it's close to being NAR.

 

[Swiss]

I laughed at J's crumbs.

 

[X1-12]

@J: your PM does clarify you see everything that happens to a person right? Also its possible that if immunisation occurs after killing, the immunising would fail and then not show up to voyeur

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

Jesus christ Nabe's posts are making my eyes bleed. Like seriously #786 almost made me choke on food while reading it.

So first, Nabe states that J's claim is both of a suggested "high calibur" and is "totally believable". He justifies this saying that the claim "makes sense with voyeur" (wait what?) and "makes sense with regards to balance." Ok, well atleast the 2nd justification makes sense (no really wtf does "your claim makes sense with voyeur" even ****ing mean), but is that really the best way to validate a claim? No. It's a decent supporting argument, but there are far more reliable things to look for in validating a claim, since using game balance as a primary argument ASSUMES THE MOD BALANCED THE GAME THE WAY YOU THINK IT SHOULD BE BALANCED. For a glaring example of how this doesn't always happen, reference the recently completed Soul Calibur mafia.

But anyway, here's the funny part. In the very same post, Nabe goes on to ask questions about both J's questionable night choice last night (btw, night choice analysis is usually the best way to determine whether or not a claim is legitimate), AND his lame-*** crumbs. Again, both of these aspects of the claim (night choices and crumbing) are far more important than stupid meta BS like game balance guesses and.... that collection of verbal spittle that was "your claim makes sense with voyeur".

Like dear lord, at first I wanted to believe Nabe and was leaning toward J as being the more likely liar but Nabe's horrendous assessment of the situation is making me take a huge double take.

And don't even get me started on the "a look at balance" treatise from pre-school. Nabe, wtf is even going through your head? Not only did you completely discount the possibility of there being an indy immunizer who can also track or voyeur (which should be a natural possibility to consider if you're already considering that the scum may have these powers), but you STILL COMPLETELY IGNORED THAT POSSIBILITY EVEN AFTER I SUGGESTED IT. Like literally, you don't even bother to explain why my suggestion isn't likely. You do plenty of legwork to justify why the scum likely don't have one of the two PR claims in question, which I can believe, but why is there no indy analysis? Selective omission much?

And I also love how he just concludes that "likely scum are X1 and FF" and calls it a night, when we all know not lynching the indy here puts in in threat of a loss to it overnight.

Why so scum in potential lylo.....

X1 claim already dude.

 

[Swiss]

FF if you had to lynch someone right now - who would it be?

I should probably be doing something - being confirmed town and all.

 

[X1-12]

FF you want me to claim but Nabe don't I'll sit on it for a while till inevitably swiss comes in and calls me an idiot and tells me which I should do

 

[X1-12]

lol

 

[~The Savage Nymph~]

Don't make fun of my crumbs ;_; At least it wasn't like someone's "I'm gonna jail watch someone tonight."

@X1: Yeeeeees. I see everything that happens to people. Hence why I was confident in saying that no one had targetted GLG with anything but a NK.

@Nabe: Here are my rationale behind each person.

GLG; The reason I chose to watch him was because what did kuzi go down saying? GLG is 100% town and he literally staked his life on it. Plus the fact X1/Swiss/You were ignoring me about the fact that I thought he was mafia just got be flustered so I thought I would put my thoughts aside to try and clear up some of my own doubt on him. I wanted to watch him because for one he seemed like the prime candidate for an immunization because he was proclaimed as the towniest of all of us (minus Larxene). Reason being he wouldn't be going anywhere for a long time in the lynch process. I had no clue the mafia would NK him because well tbh there were better targets then him and he had only claimed VT. I went to see him to satisfy town, help myself see GLG as town more if I found something on him.

Nabe; The fact I went to see you N2 was simply because well I had no better candidate at the time. You were sitting pretty as X1's right hand man with following with what he had done and I thought I could out mindgame the immunizer by hitting you because X1 was playing pretty townie but he would be the obvious one to protect/watch. Guessed wrong here sadly. =/ Also I needed more to believe you were town. I originally thought of you as town but if I found something it would've given me that extra edge but I didn't find anything. That is where my faith started to drop in you a bit in which I let it get to the point of almost hammering you.

Swiss; He had been ignoring me the entire day along with X1. However his actions seemed.....town to say the least. I was hoping the immunizer would pick him to be immunized but I just guess wrong here with Swissy. Also finding nothing on him was just a let-down cuz it meant at the time that all I had to go off of was my reads. I did end up on the Swiss wagon D2 cuz of this but I soon decided to go with my straight read instead of a nothing on a voyeur trip. Hence why I went onto Grump.


X1 needs to claim now. Then we go about what happens from there. Curious to see what else FF has to say.

 

[~The Savage Nymph~]

Ninja'd by everyone but Nabe -_-"

Reading now.

 

[#HBC | FrozeηFlame]

FF if you had to lynch someone right now - who would it be?

I should probably be doing something - being confirmed town and all.

If I had to lynch someone this very moment, it would be X1, reason being is I'm pretty damn sure that he's anti town, but I don't know whether or not he's the indy.

Currently, I'm still trying to figure out who's the indy and who's scum out of X1/Nabe/J but I'm having some trouble. Obviously our ideal lynch is the indy here, but a scum lynch doesn't necessarily GUARANTEE town loss. Only lynching you or me does that.

If we get the scum, I don't think we're guaranteed to lose but I still have to math that out. So yeah, basically if I didn't have time to do any more reading or checking or whatever, I'd want to lynch X1 to guarantee an anti-town lynch so we aren't guaranteed to lose.

Hope that makes sense.

@ X1: I'm pretty sure Nabe asked to wait for my reads before you claim? Well as I've stated I'm pretty sure our two anti-town are between you J and Nabe, and right now I'm leaning toward you being the scum.

I can't finalize my reads without your claim though, so waiting for me to give them in full is pointless since I need your claim to even be able to OFFER my best reads anyway.

 

[X1-12]

Ok guys, I'm Black Bear, Jack of some trades

N1 roleblock kuz
N2 fish count: 1 fish left
N3 immunise checker J: J is immune


pretty self explanatory