LEAST LIKELY SCUMMATES FOR RANMARU
Starting with the most obvious, ADUMBRODEUS. If you look at all the posts leading up to Ran's eventually push for the Adum wagon at the end of the Day 1, you'll see a distinct pattern of non-interaction between the two of them. In Ran's #82, he gives Adum "town-vibes" and he specifies that Adum's RVS vote as the reason (see post #84). For the rest of the Day, they don't interact at all, outside of Ran including Adum in various posts asking multiple people for reads.
On its own, you could say that this is pretty good distancing, but that argument completely falls apart at the end of Day 1. Ran was the first to push the Adum wagon, followed quickly by Kary (confirmed town), and Ro Laren. He never gives concrete reasons for the vote (mostly POE).
Ran pushed this wagon on his own when there were more attractive options abounding (Xatres, Ro Laren, Marshy, RR). In a scum!Adum situation, this would be a pretty horrible play to make. Adum had been pretty under the radar all day, and Ran had every reason to push an easy mislynch that could be pinned on someone else. (Mislynching town!Ro could easily be pinned on town!Xatres for a one-two punch).
Ran also made a big show of questioning Adum as if it were some kind of post-mortem and Adum was doomed. He could easily have used a town!Adum flip to show that he had acted reasonably during the lynch and ensured that Adum's thoughts were captured before death.
Of all the possible scummates, this is easily the least likely in my mind.
Next, we come to MARSHY. They're early-game play was very amicable, with sparring RVS votes, discussion on Ro Laren's identity, and Ran giving Marshy town-vibes in #82.
The relationship changed as the Xat v. Ro situation evolved. Marshy pushed Ran for feedback on the interaction, which Ran was reluctant to give. He eventually says its TvNull, with Xat coming off as genuine and Ro coming of as more passive / wishy-washy (#195). In the next post (#196), Ran comes out with and says he's not confident in any scumreads and he feels that "scum are playing it safe."
Marshy pushes again for Ran to give his current reads.
Note: Ran's reluctance here is telling, as he has stated openly that he likes to play very openly with his reads. And yet he was very reluctant to comment when pushed by Marshy.
In #212 - Ran says he's liked aspects of Marshy's play, but his reads aren't fully formed.
By #251, Ran's views on Marshy are changing, and he finally votes Marshy in #255 (with no direct explanation). Marshy countervotes, and in #271, Ran says that Marshy is the one "he most wants gone of his nulls."
Marshy's wagon quickly builds to L-1, but intervention by Kary (who had been on the wagon) kills the momentum.
Marshy then starts getting salty about Ran's play, as Ran's continues to banter and pressure Ro Laren without ever dropping his vote from Marshy. Marshy is eventually part of the wagon to lynches Ran.
The biggest issue with a scum!Marshy scenario should be obvious here. Ran kept Marshy as a town read until Marshy started poking and prodding him, and then very quickly Ran was pushing for Marshy to be killed. In return, Marshy began pointing out inconsistencies in Ran's play and contributed to his lynch.
Neither player had any reason to do this if they were a scumteam. Ran had no motivation to bus scum!Marshy when he did, nor did scum!Marshy have a strong enough reason to attack Ran.
My assessment is, quite simply, that this rivalry developed too naturally over the course of the Day to be faked. It was only through the intervention of Kary - who we know to be town - that Marshy's lynch was stopped.
(More incoming)
Starting with the most obvious, ADUMBRODEUS. If you look at all the posts leading up to Ran's eventually push for the Adum wagon at the end of the Day 1, you'll see a distinct pattern of non-interaction between the two of them. In Ran's #82, he gives Adum "town-vibes" and he specifies that Adum's RVS vote as the reason (see post #84). For the rest of the Day, they don't interact at all, outside of Ran including Adum in various posts asking multiple people for reads.
On its own, you could say that this is pretty good distancing, but that argument completely falls apart at the end of Day 1. Ran was the first to push the Adum wagon, followed quickly by Kary (confirmed town), and Ro Laren. He never gives concrete reasons for the vote (mostly POE).
Ran pushed this wagon on his own when there were more attractive options abounding (Xatres, Ro Laren, Marshy, RR). In a scum!Adum situation, this would be a pretty horrible play to make. Adum had been pretty under the radar all day, and Ran had every reason to push an easy mislynch that could be pinned on someone else. (Mislynching town!Ro could easily be pinned on town!Xatres for a one-two punch).
Ran also made a big show of questioning Adum as if it were some kind of post-mortem and Adum was doomed. He could easily have used a town!Adum flip to show that he had acted reasonably during the lynch and ensured that Adum's thoughts were captured before death.
Of all the possible scummates, this is easily the least likely in my mind.
Next, we come to MARSHY. They're early-game play was very amicable, with sparring RVS votes, discussion on Ro Laren's identity, and Ran giving Marshy town-vibes in #82.
The relationship changed as the Xat v. Ro situation evolved. Marshy pushed Ran for feedback on the interaction, which Ran was reluctant to give. He eventually says its TvNull, with Xat coming off as genuine and Ro coming of as more passive / wishy-washy (#195). In the next post (#196), Ran comes out with and says he's not confident in any scumreads and he feels that "scum are playing it safe."
Marshy pushes again for Ran to give his current reads.
Note: Ran's reluctance here is telling, as he has stated openly that he likes to play very openly with his reads. And yet he was very reluctant to comment when pushed by Marshy.
In #212 - Ran says he's liked aspects of Marshy's play, but his reads aren't fully formed.
By #251, Ran's views on Marshy are changing, and he finally votes Marshy in #255 (with no direct explanation). Marshy countervotes, and in #271, Ran says that Marshy is the one "he most wants gone of his nulls."
Marshy's wagon quickly builds to L-1, but intervention by Kary (who had been on the wagon) kills the momentum.
Marshy then starts getting salty about Ran's play, as Ran's continues to banter and pressure Ro Laren without ever dropping his vote from Marshy. Marshy is eventually part of the wagon to lynches Ran.
The biggest issue with a scum!Marshy scenario should be obvious here. Ran kept Marshy as a town read until Marshy started poking and prodding him, and then very quickly Ran was pushing for Marshy to be killed. In return, Marshy began pointing out inconsistencies in Ran's play and contributed to his lynch.
Neither player had any reason to do this if they were a scumteam. Ran had no motivation to bus scum!Marshy when he did, nor did scum!Marshy have a strong enough reason to attack Ran.
My assessment is, quite simply, that this rivalry developed too naturally over the course of the Day to be faked. It was only through the intervention of Kary - who we know to be town - that Marshy's lynch was stopped.
(More incoming)
