Basic Mafia

[Xatres]

Apologies for the inactivity. Still on vacation. I'll get some posts up today.

 

[#HBC | J]

Hey, I'm here today should anyone want to talk and hash things out. I'm pretty lost at the moment as to who could be the final scum.

 

[#HBC | marshy]

what do you think of my last post and how i reached conclusions j? specifically on adum and ruy? if you write out your general thoughts on the cast thatd interest me

 

[adumbrodeus]

my thoughts atm are like

xatres i was worried about d1 but his big post this dayphase looked good in the sense that i doubt hed pull that **** as scum. im okay with him living past today

vinyl....ugh. i had him as a townlean d1 cuz he just looked like someone who wasnt sure of how to interact with slots. he looked lost in a "im trying to figure out how to play the game" kind of way thats more likely innocent than scum. usually noobscum just throw ****ty scumreads out and hes seemed cautious in a "im playing this at my own pace" way. ima laugh if hes the final scum but i wouldnt lynch him today

ro i had as probably town for his tone. he has also been the only one consistently to give a **** about this game so i laud him for that

that leaves ruy/j/adum

ruy and ran both hopped my wagon d1. ive been wrestling with that cuz its like would a 2 man scumteam really be THAT close to each other in terms of votes? it seems to me an awful strategy but i havent really been townreading ruy outside of that

j looked good to me d1 when he threw out the vinyl read. i think i talked about this before. he says hes a passive player which he is but i expected him to make a bigger post by now. he usually does one of his longass posts summarizing every slots actions and explaining why he reached the conclusion he did

and then theres adum. the only thing going for him that i remember is pushing a ro lynch today. i dont think ro is scum. i SEE the logic behind the ro push but with a gun to my head id guess ro is innocent. when adum is scum he usually just makes sure to pad his pushes with logic to come away scot free should he be wrong. yeah you know what ima vote adum

j tell me why youre voting adum. youve given a lynch pool im wondering if youll expand?

adum tell me why j doesnt bus the **** out of ran d1. i would have. talk to me about ruy plz

theres a lot of analysis floating around ran and his interactions but im not putting much stock in that in general. i just lost a game where ****ty analysis of scum interactions played a huge role and if i was scum i would have bussed ran and expect most players here to have done the same. hell the guy who died was OFF the wagon

vote adum

Marshy, I expected better of you.

Are you honestly saying that given the way Ran played around me last gameday that there's a chance in hell I'm scum? Hell that Ran would've tried a hard bus like that in the first place for me?

As for J, J would've taken the free lynch on me and then bused ran. There was literally 0 reason for a scum player to break the momentum on that wagon.

Come on, you're better then this and "always pads his lynches with logic" is outright paranoia, you just chided me on that in the mafiascum game. Do you think I'm faking the push? If so what makes you think that?

 

[adumbrodeus]

Honestly don't know where Ryu's heads at and I've been lazy at rereading the slot, he's in my potential lynchpool as a POE.

 

[#HBC | marshy]

Marshy, I expected better of you.

Are you honestly saying that given the way Ran played around me last gameday that there's a chance in hell I'm scum? Hell that Ran would've tried a hard bus like that in the first place for me?

As for J, J would've taken the free lynch on me and then bused ran. There was literally 0 reason for a scum player to break the momentum on that wagon.

Come on, you're better then this and "always pads his lynches with logic" is outright paranoia, you just chided me on that in the mafiascum game. Do you think I'm faking the push? If so what makes you think that?

i havent reread but

were you ever actually in jeopardy of being lynched yesterday? your rebuke seems to revolve around that. i dont remember that being the case. the only pushes with any meat to them that i recall yesterday were ro me then ran

 

[adumbrodeus]

i havent reread but

were you ever actually in jeopardy of being lynched yesterday? your rebuke seems to revolve around that. i dont remember that being the case. the only pushes with any meat to them that i recall yesterday were ro me then ran

Absolutely, Kary, ran, then Ro, wagon had momentum and a lot of people had expressed willingness for the lynch. If J had voted me I'm 100% sure I would've been the lynch.

 

[adumbrodeus]

And J was one of the people who expressed willingness to lynch me before.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I'm not threatened by you or Xatres at all. It's just two of you. I just think that cooperation among townies is the main factor that goes into winning this game. Xatres's lasts few posts were really good. I agree with a lot of it. Even though he came to the wrong conclusion on me, his line of reasoning doesn't look as facetious as I thought. Xatres also pointed out a lot of things that I had forgotten. I had forgotten that Ranmaru town-leaned you during RVS. The way he did it doesn't look like a scum interaction to me. I had doubts about your slot when you continued going after me toDay, but this dismisses them.

I don't really expect for you to accept my olive branch. You've been picking on me since RVS. I don't think I need for you (or Xatres) to accept it either. I just thought it would be nice to work with other players who are at least trying.

Dearie, yes town needs cooperation, but I don't think you are. I've been on you since d1 cause I don't like your slot for reasons I explained and trying to buddy both people scumreading you rings all kind of alarm bells especially since it's a 180 flip.

Do you just not understand why people would find that behavior... untrustworthy?

My two suspects at the start of the day were Xatres and J (your opposite!). They were the two reads that stood out to me in Ranmaru's read post. Xatres was the only read Ranmaru had that wasn't a lean or a null. Ranmaru's J read looked really apologetic. It looked like he was trying to tread lightly with it. He talked through the history of his read in a way that he didn't do with his other null reads.

As I said up there, Xatres looks really good from his last few posts. His posts weren't just babble. I was able to follow along with his thinking all the way. The only hiccup he had was coming to the conclusion that I am Ranmaru's scum mate, even though everything he presented on me shows the opposite.

Xatres was never babble, his early case on you was overly mechanical but he always had clear thoughts behind his actions. Explain why you think his points present the opposite.

J is my biggest suspect right now. This is just from process of elimination. J hasn't done anything remotely scummy. But there are little things from everyone else that have given me town reads at one point or another. I haven't gotten that from J. I haven't been able to pick up on anything in his play that distinguishes it from being townie and really really smart scum play.

Red Ryu and Vinyl are really unknown. I think there is the potential for scum there too. But a lot of the posts they've made and Ranmaru's interaction with them look townie. Still, I'm not willing to lynch J without exploring the two of them.

ehhhhhh, it's wishy washy but if it's just POE that makes sense. Explain why J could still be scum with ranmaru after scuttling my lynch.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Ro>Vinal>RR is my lynchpool right now, not willing to lynch outside of that.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Hm. Hard to say.

Town leans may go to Marshy and Xat
Null is Adumb and Ro.
Scum lean may be on Ryu or J, but what exactly should I provide to support this?

It's easy to read these posts but hard to make theories or analysis of these things. l'd want ryu to speak more to me first. He can go ahead with his push if it means getting more out of him.

Adumb, All I can tell of ran was his reaching on Xat and Ro. I can't imagine either being scum and I believe they are the least likely to bus.

Gross, says he's waiting for Xatres to make his omnibus post, doesn't even use it in his conclusion, could just be lazy play but also got POE suggesting him.

 

[adumbrodeus]

and now trying to get a solid bead on RR while I actually have a moment to reread.

 

[adumbrodeus]

#HBC | J since you're reading the thread, thoughts on Vinyl and RR?

I know you're unwilling to consider Ro atm, but how bout a Vinyl lynch?

 

[Maven89]

Spak is down to replace, if there's anyone whose heart isn't in this game let me know and he'll jump in

 

[#HBC | J]

I guess I'll just flesh out my reads a bit that way there is more from me and also to help my own mind out.

I'll start where my vote is at because that's the first thing. Xatres vs. Ro initially looked pretty TvT to me. The thing that tipped the scale is that was 100% of his content even coming into the start of the day. Xatres has been tunneling that slot almost relentlessly since his entrance into the game and I am not the biggest fan of that. However, I would like to stress that I did like him offering more insight to his reads and everything regarding the cast. His conclusions are looking incorrect from my eyes because they have one of my strongest town reads and myself as scum and I just do not agree with that logic. I'm not entirely sure on Xat being scum, but he was someone that I wanted to press today to get more information out of because also when looking back at the votes, his onto Ranmaru seemed the most likely to be a bus/not really true.

Ro Laren is someone that I actually find myself trusting out of the rest of the cast. Her case on Ranmaru was the thing that made me realize the inconsistencies in his play and also her push on him came naturally. It was organic. That is a big tell for me to look at her as more of a town read that actually found something they found scummy and pushed it. When looking at her play, there has not been much of anything that really makes me look at her as scum. To bolster that fact, I find the cases against her weak and also forced in some manners. It feels more like people are "wanting" her to be scum rather her actually "being" scum. If she turns out to be scum at the end of the game, I will say that I was fooled and I am okay with that because she has been playing a good game. It's a shame she reads me as a possible scum-read, but I understand her train of thought as to why.

Adumb is something of a second most likely to be scum-read. He is correct on the article stating that I was the sole decider of whether he lived or died yesterDay when looking back at the posts. My vote came at a time that seemed to sway the rest of the cast into the Ranmaru direction. The reason I decided to vote Ran over Dumb is that I also feel that his reactions to being lynched were genuine and something that read to me more as a town that got caught in an inactivity spurt. I would also like to point out that I do see Adumb trying to scum-hunt in his own fashion, though nothing has really bared fruitful yet from him. (To be honest, no one besides Ro Laren has actually nailed a scummy nor shown anything to indicated a reason to call someone scum for valid reasons yet so we are all in that boat)

Vinyl to me seems like the lost puppy of this town rather than slacker scum. He seems to be trying to go at the game at his own pace and as someone who is very much like that I understand what he is trying to do. An area that I would like to highlight again would be the situation where Red Ryu tried to push Vinyl into doing something he did not like and that he bucked back with a marvelous response stating that he was going to do things that he, himself, felt more comfortable with. This looked more like a Vinyl-independent-sole-minded Town rather than team-think-oriented scum approach. He seems to be actively trying when he is in the thread, but he has so little content it is harder for me to discuss him as a harder town read. I don't get RR's/Adumb's distaste for the slot and find myself nodding more along with Marshy.

Marshy is a hard one this game. Maybe it has just been a long time since I played with him, but he seems much more apathetic than the rest of the cast when he is in the game. I came into the game with placing my RVS vote onto him and then hopefully him dropping something that makes me believe he is town for the Day-Phase or at least comfortable with him, but as I said yesterDay, I was never given a reason to not be voting him until I voted for Ranmaru at the end of the Day Phase. His reaction to votes being on him and his notion that his "wagon" was anything more than an air-push to get him to post seems a bit hypocritical since it was the same thing he called me out on but then did it himself no more than a couple pages later. ToDay he has been playing much better when he finally posts, but it seems like pulling teeth with him to be able to do more substantial things. I don't mind the hemming and hawwing on certain issues; I am just not used to it from a player like Marshy. Kind of a null currently, I could see the rationale behind both scum and town for him. We have similar reads, but I am kind of in tune with him on our thought styles so it does come natural that I agree with his reads for the better part.

Red Ryu is definitely someone I would like to touch base upon because I feel like his posts have been more baseless when looking back at the game and thinking about the end-goal of his questions. It seems Red Ryu comes into the thread and asks a bunch of questions and says certain slots can die, yet I do not see much follow up after said questions. He just seems to be asking questions to garner some sort of thread life and also some presence for himself. When thinking back at Ryu's play, nothing sticks out besides things I do not like. The main thing I would say that I remember from his play is him popping into the thread to constantly change his "who can die" pile and the conversation with Vinyl that, if anything, gave Vinyl more town points.

After re-looking at some posts and also looking at the flow of the game, I think I would say that Red Ryu is my more likely candidate that I am okay with lynching toDay and willing to give Xat more of a benefit of the doubt that he is just not having correct reads this game and also tunneling a bit too hard.

Unvote
Vote: Red Ryu

I will not be voting Ro, I will not be voting Adumb, and I will nott vote Vinyl. This is where my vote is staying till deadline.

 

[#HBC | J]

*Adumb is most likely "NOT to be a scum-read

Quite the error there, but tl;dr version on my reads would be

Not lynching: Ro/Adumb/Vinyl
Up in the air: Marshy/Xat
Can Go: Red Ryu

 

[Ro Laren]

But why did you want to solidify it? Was there a strategic reason? I'd think it would be more reasonable to see if the situation had changed or new evidence had presented itself.

#HBC | J

 

[adumbrodeus]

Ro Laren

Feelings on Vinyl/RR?

 

[Ro Laren]

Ro Laren

Feelings on Vinyl/RR?

I'll let you know after I talk more with Vinyl and RR posts some more. In the mean time, did you ever ISO me?

 

[#HBC | J]

#HBC | J

I wanted to solidify my reasons because I did not want to be swayed further. I don't like moving my vote around and it was getting pretty close to deadline. Everyone was hemming and hawing on lynching an inactive spot in Adumb instead of something fruitful like Ranmaru. There was no strategy besides gut and intuition. Also at the time of my post nothing seemed to be coming out of new evidence nor intel because of the train of conversation was apathetic and just moving towards lynching Adumb.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I'll let you know after I talk more with Vinyl and RR posts some more. In the mean time, did you ever ISO me?

Forgot actually, been a couple of really busy days for me but just finished.

Didn't really change my impression of your slot, you're clearly a strong player even though I despise a fair amount of your theorycraft (but your shade was awesome), nothing really stuck out as a pure towntell though the case against ran seemed a lot more organic then I remembered.

Scumread on you is still mostly contingent of Ran's play around you plus the buddying really strikes me as odd.


As for Vinyl and RR, we're kinda running out of time so get on it ASAP. Thanks.

 

[adumbrodeus]

J's Xatres vote is curious. I just did an ISO and found this (the red):Nothing about his play had changed.

Morning everyone.

@#HBC | Kary The wagon I was talking about in that post you quoted was actually the wagon on me because I thought I had the most votes at the time even though it seems I was mistaken and tied with Xatres.

I will admit that I am playing more passively, but I would also generate that to the fact that I am also shaking off the rust and trying to remember certain things. I've also calmed down vastly as a person online due to events. My current goal is to garner conversations with people and also see where other heads are at because I do not really have a scum read at this time.

Xatres vs. Ro Laren is boring at it's essence because neither really have anything scummy against them and more so just not the best reasoning initially. If I had to choose out of the two to vote, I would lean Xatres due to his, what seems to be, over-confidence to call Ro Laren scum over something so small. Though, I'm not sold on that being a scum-tell over that of a possible over-zealous tell.

Currently, I am moreso looking at who I like for my town-reads and probably will vote the weakest of my reads if nothing continues to pop up for a scum-tell that I can really bite into. I've got my null-pile that I want to see more things happen from. (Previously stated as Marshy/RR/Adumb) I have some town points for some members of the cast, yet nothing solid.

My gut is telling me that scum for D1 isn't really located in Ranmaru/Vinyl. I'm not really keen on narrowing the lynch to Ro Laren/Xatres because as you said it is looking more TvT. So that just leaves my nulls and you (who I'm not really sure either way at the moment).

At the end of it, the reason I'm not really talking about my reads much is because they are a wash overall. Nothing really insightful nor telling.

#HBC | marshy what do you think about J?

Whose play hasn't changed? Xatres or J?

 

[adumbrodeus]

i havent reread but

were you ever actually in jeopardy of being lynched yesterday? your rebuke seems to revolve around that. i dont remember that being the case. the only pushes with any meat to them that i recall yesterday were ro me then ran

Ya could you please reread the thread, this isn't the first thing you seemed really unclear on and I really need you here.

 

[Ro Laren]

Forgot actually, been a couple of really busy days for me but just finished.

Didn't really change my impression of your slot, you're clearly a strong player even though I despise a fair amount of your theorycraft (but your shade was awesome), nothing really stuck out as a pure towntell though the case against ran seemed a lot more organic then I remembered.

Scumread on you is still mostly contingent of Ran's play around you plus the buddying really strikes me as odd.

I wanted to see if you'd notice the posts around #286. If you town read J for voting Ranmaru 》Adum at a critical point, then you should town read me for doing the same with Marshy. I made sure that someone couldn't "accidentally" hammer Marshy by pretending they didn't know he was L-1 (#277). Then in post #286 I offered Ranmaru as an alternative wagon. I continued to press Ranmaru long after this until an hour before the deadline.

Do you really think these are the actions of a scum mate?

Whose play hasn't changed? Xatres or J?

Xatres. His play hadn't changed between the point J town read him and the point J voted him.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I wanted to see if you'd notice the posts around #286. If you town read J for voting Ranmaru 》Adum at a critical point, then you should town read me for doing the same with Marshy. I made sure that someone couldn't "accidentally" hammer Marshy by pretending they didn't know he was L-1 (#277). Then in post #286 I offered Ranmaru as an alternative wagon. I continued to press Ranmaru long after this until an hour before the deadline.

Do you really think these are the actions of a scum mate?

Completely different context.

J could've literally dropped "vote: AdumbroDeus cause deadline" and gotten no consequences for it because it was a deadline compromise lynch he previously supported. If he wanted to bus ran next game day he could've easily used the excuse of not having a chance to fully read, expressed outrage that ran still wanted a lynch on me after that and bused him to hell and back for full towncred and just gained a day. Nor could J have known it would be read this way because I'm the only person pointing it out.


You didn't have that, you could've stayed silent or supported the lynch vocally but neither would guarantee he'd die without a quickhammer and the latter would definitely be noted and critiqued. Pretending you didn't realize he was at l-1 would've probably been worse given you've illustrated you're an organized analytical player.



No, the situation isn't remotely the same and I find it nasty that you're trying to argue they are. You strike me as way too good to not recognize how dissimilar they are.



Worth noting that it's pretty obvious ran was hoping for a quicklynch using the inactivity from the holiday weekend to drive it.

Xatres. His play hadn't changed between the point J town read him and the point J voted him.

Thanks for the clarification. Noted that you immediately recognized what I was getting at.

 

[Ro Laren]

So putting aside whether or not the situations are similar, you think scum would actively detract a towny's lynch in favor of their mate?

 

[adumbrodeus]

Not only do I think so, I've done it as scum.

 

[adumbrodeus]

That's why I put such an emphasis on whether a person seems to be genuinely in how they approach the game, the list of things town do that scum would never do is pretty thin. Flipped slots and night actions excluded.

The reason J's situation was unique was that it was absolutely free, he was perfectly set up to lynch me, take no blame, then execute any plans he desired with the ran slot next game day. It's a rare circumstance.

 

[adumbrodeus]

Question, would you as town use mafia theorycraft you knew to be bad as part of an argument to achieve a good end?

 

[Ro Laren]

I actually don't know what theorycraft means.

 

[Ro Laren]

You didn't have that, you could've stayed silent or supported the lynch vocally but neither would guarantee he'd die without a quickhammer and the latter would definitely be noted and critiqued. Pretending you didn't realize he was at l-1 would've probably been worse given you've illustrated you're an organized analytical player.

I could have stayed silent and lurked. I wouldn't have stood out since most of the players were inactive.

 

[adumbrodeus]

I actually don't know what theorycraft means.

Game theory about optimal play, things like your early game discussion with Xatres.

I could have stayed silent and lurked. I wouldn't have stood out since most of the players were inactive.

And if the lynch fails without your interference you gain nothing.

In your 10 years of play you've never encountered a scum defending a townie for towncred? I can point to an example right off the top of my head from my past games, a game with marshy in it actually.

 

[adumbrodeus]

https://smashboards.com/threads/bingo-mafia-the-end.364853 example


Still kicking myself for not unvoting on rake.

 

[Ro Laren]

Question, would you as town use mafia theorycraft you knew to be bad as part of an argument to achieve a good end?

Yes, my initial Xatres vote was just to get things going. The game wasn't moving much at that point. I think it's rare for any legit arguments to made on D1.

And if the lynch fails without your interference you gain nothing.

In your 10 years of play you've never encountered a scum defending a townie for towncred? I can point to an example right off the top of my head from my past games, a game with marshy in it actually.

You're right.

 

[#HBC | J]

I love that there are posts in the thread, but could we tone down the conjecture?

It's becoming a bit much of the WIFOM and "what ifs" of the whole Ranmaru voting situation because at the end of the day, it is circumstantial evidence that has no true like proof to it.

Take it with a grain of salt and look at more detailed actions.

 

[Ro Laren]

Vote: Red Ryu

 

[adumbrodeus]

Yes, my initial Xatres vote was just to get things going. The game wasn't moving much at that point. I think it's rare for any legit arguments to made on D1.

You saying that was a fake argument so yes, or you acknowledging that was a theorycraft argument?

If the latter, would you knowingly use theorycraft you consider bad to achieve a good end?

 

[adumbrodeus]

Guess I should probably finish my reread of RR

 

[Ro Laren]

You saying that was a fake argument so yes, or you acknowledging that was a theorycraft argument?

If the latter, would you knowingly use theorycraft you consider bad to achieve a good end?

I'm saying that if you think my reasong for voting Xatres D1 was theorycraft and that it was bad, then yes I would use it to acheive a good end, because that's what I did. Sorry if I'm still not getting you.

 

[Ro Laren]

Marshy let's L-1 RR.