Banjo-Kazooie Mafia: Grunty's Back! Game Over! Did Grunty win in the end?

[sneakytako]

I'm kinda tired, but I'll be posting my thoughts soon.

 

[RadicalRat]

I'm kinda tired, but I'll be posting my thoughts soon.

Understandable.

MOD REQUEST: Extend the deadline 'til Wednesday on account of incredibly low activity in Sneaky's absence? I can see why you'd not want to do that, but just throwing it out there.

 

[#HBC | J]

There will be no deadline extension.

 

[RadicalRat]

Well !@#$.

 

[sneakytako]

Don't worry, we should have a decision soon.

Pretty much what I predict is that either I will get lynched, or rake will get lynched, which still works out perfectly for town within the confines of my game theory.

I'm just going to come out and explain why I'm sure rake is scum. (I really haven't analyzed day 2 posts, this is all review of day 1 posts.)

Consider what bardul did day 1 from the perspective that he is confirmed scum. His first action was 3 fold; apply pressure to rake, explain some mafia to moosey, then defend moosey from rake by saying he should be excused for being a newbie. At first glance, this would seem to point toward moosey being scum, but taking the next few actions takes into consideration this makes way more sense that rake is scum. So let's continue.

The next thing that happens is that gheb calls out bardul for applying pressure, and I follow suit. Bardul pivots his attention to me, and mitigates the attention on rake. At this point, everyone seems comfortable that Rake is lean town; thus he further detracts attention with his 221, simultaneously detracting from gheb's call out against bardul by asking others to ignore him and focusing more attention on me. This is further emphasized by his 223.

This to me says that gheb was on the right trail here. At this point, Orbo and Rake are the most suspicious if you consider that gheb's 141 is on target; gheb is right to question orbo's defence on rake, and barduls hate on rake. Scum applying unconfirmable pressure that can't be followed up puts rake in a good position here, because he would seem to be more clear once the pressure is alleviated.

In his 339 he both defends bardul against gheb and me, and legitimizes bardul's attack on me. (which I still find to be BS, there was no correlation between me attacking bardul because I doubted rake but I digress). In his 340 he further elaborates by predicting that bardul would claim, even though bardul really has no reason to claim. This could be a sign that he knew that bardul was considering claiming based on scum chat, but this is still pretty shaky at this point.

In rake's 344, he tries to shake gheb off of bardul's trail (gheb is the strongest/cleanest player against bardul at this point) by trying to his displace his attention to other players.

Lastly, after bardul has been hammered, he predicts at this point that bardul is scum, and that I'm also scum. He puts no thought into what bardul's flip actually means, unlike maven's 463.

At the end of the day, he's either scum that bardul has constantly defended, or he's a town that I can't rely on to think like town. Honestly I'd say it's about 80 scum / 20 useless town at this point, totally a worthy candidate of tunnel lynching.

The real question is this, if I were town, isn't my play to call out bardul great? If I'm scum, how does anything I've posted make any sense? You gotta trust that while I'm not perfect (I ****ed up bardul's finish, I got held up by the fact the he might have failed at giving me a silent nod), I know how to play this game. Everything that I see with bardul being scum is to allow rake to fly under the radar, there's ALOT of attention from bardul into rake considering that he applies pressure once then pivots to defending him all game against gheb.

 

[sneakytako]

EBWOP: Ignore most of my last paragraph, it's unimportant to the discussion.

But mostly rake has been defended by bardul A LOT, albeit in subtle ways.

 

[sneakytako]

I'll be writing up my thoughts on day 2 posts, if I get lynched day 2 PLEASE consider my reads carefully.

 

[RadicalRat]

Ah, so you DID have things in mind...

My vote stands on Rake, I'm liking Sneaky a bit more now.

 

[sneakytako]

Questions that you probably will/should ask about my 645. (Yea yea I know it sound pompous AF, but we don't have a lot of time, the point here is that I have an answer for these questions.)

Q,) If I have so much faith in gheb's 141, why is so much of my attention toward rake and not obro?

A. While gheb's post makes me doubt orbo more than rake, really what sold me is his that he predicted that bardul would claim. You could write it off as a meta-read that he knows that bardul is prone to fake claiming, but that's exactly why it's it sounds like a practiced move that makes me think that Bardul would tell his scum mates first in their chat rather than choosing it on a whim. After this my attention was on rake, everything from there made sense from a scum perspective.

Man, I forgot what I was going to post. Going to sleep.

 

[Orboknown]

Why couldn't bardull have been defending you to make rake look bad for a double ml or at the least make you or rake look worse on the others town flip?

 

[Kaladin]

That was actually a really good press. That said, I am unconvinced. I'm more open to a Rake lynch now, but he's still leaningg town. I'll explain why in the morning.

 

[Zaixl]

##vote Shun Goku Satsu Rake
My 533 on OrBaRake might not be just a hunch after all

 

[Zaixl]

Generic, if you explain in the morning nothing will happen and it will be too late for a push.

 

[Kaladin]

Generic, if you explain in the morning nothing will happen and it will be too late for a push.

Huh? What? It's 1AM. What do you mean too late? The only thing it's too late for is to be awake.

 

[Kaladin]

You mean a majority will be reached? He's like at L-3, right?

 

[Zaixl]

Tuesday is the end of D2. People won't have time to discuss your post.
And it's never too late to be awake.

 

[sneakytako]

Why couldn't bardull have been defending you to make rake look bad for a double ml or at the least make you or rake look worse on the others town flip?

No matter how well bardul has planned ahead, there was no way for rake to predict that he would claim if he was town.

 

[sneakytako]

Also, lots of my points are about rake's posts after the whole claiming thing, which should be independent of bardul's interactions if rake were town.

 

[RadicalRat]

Sneaky, I'd still like you to explain your power trip before your disappearance.

 

[sneakytako]

I thought I explained that at the beginning of day 2.

My position should have been solid town at the end of day 1, I used that situation to herd all the attention toward rake. I knew that people would take it personally when I claimed it was clear rake was scum and not explain, which was me trying to bait agitated posts because at that point it would be much easier to tick off scum than town (Town should be ecstatic at this point, we're up 10-2).

Also, if people debated rake amongst themselves, it would be more clear who the last remaining scum would be. Which is why I asked for people to think about Rake rather than just have me explain.

 

[sneakytako]

Also FYI the bardul bandwagon for day 1 was Me, maven, gheb, generic, radical rat, and moosey (not in that order).

Which leaves Rake, Orbo, Zaixl, and Koopa (and bardul of course) for not joining the bandwagon.

Considering the fact that bardul got blind sided by me all at once, it is most likely that scum was not on bardul's bandwagon.

 

[RadicalRat]

I thought I explained that at the beginning of day 2.

My position should have been solid town at the end of day 1, I used that situation to herd all the attention toward rake. I knew that people would take it personally when I claimed it was clear rake was scum and not explain, which was me trying to bait agitated posts because at that point it would be much easier to tick off scum than town (Town should be ecstatic at this point, we're up 10-2).

Also, if people debated rake amongst themselves, it would be more clear who the last remaining scum would be. Which is why I asked for people to think about Rake rather than just have me explain.

Alright, I can understand that... I still just find it odd you were asserting yourself as confirmed Town. Really, until we get either a Cop or a Flip, we don't have definite proof that it WASN'T some crazy bussing.

As of right now though, you definitely read as Town. Just be careful assuming yourself confirmed.

 

[Kaladin]

So, as fate would have it, #HBC | J Mod request vote count

 

[Kaladin]

Ahk! ignore the as fate would have it bit. That's from a different post.

 

[Orboknown]

Also FYI the bardul bandwagon for day 1 was Me, maven, gheb, generic, radical rat, and moosey (not in that order).

Which leaves Rake, Orbo, Zaixl, and Koopa (and bardul of course) for not joining the bandwagon.

Considering the fact that bardul got blind sided by me all at once, it is most likely that scum was not on bardul's bandwagon.

Theres also the possibility scum jumped ontonit after you threw the cc while other players were offline. Who dya thinks scum off the wagon vs on the wagon? (Ie xontenders on and off the wagon)

 

[sneakytako]

If rake flips town, your first on my list day 3.

If rake flips scum, you move down to about third or fourth. Koopa would be the next logical target.

 

[Kaladin]

If rake flips town, your first on my list day 3.

If rake flips scum, you move down to about third or fourth. Koopa would be the next logical target.

Post #666 from Satan himself. If Rake flips town, we are going to take a long, hard look at your slot.

 

[RadicalRat]

If rake flips town, your first on my list day 3.

If rake flips scum, you move down to about third or fourth. Koopa would be the next logical target.

Reasoning for this?

 

[RadicalRat]

I'm leaning Town on Orbo, based mostly on good vibes, and null on Koopa.

You have any particularly incriminating posts in mind?

 

[sneakytako]

Reasoning for this?

If I'm wrong about rake and he's town, I'm still confident on my read that scum killed gheb because he was on the right track. As I explained earlier this points heavily toward orbo being scum.

If I'm right about rake and he's scum, while it's still possible for orbo to be scum we have bigger fish to fry. Koopa is first because he's a giant question mark, he barely posted anything since the game has started.

 

[sneakytako]

Post #666 from Satan himself. If Rake flips town, we are going to take a long, hard look at your slot.

You act like I'm going to somehow be intimidated by a lynch lol. Good luck with that.

 

[#HBC | J]

~Day 2 Vote-count 2.2~

1. Orboknown (0)
2. Zaixl

(1): MoosyDoosy
3. RadicalRat (0)
4. TheKingofKoopas (0)
5. sneakytako

(2): Rake, Generic
6. Maven89 (0)
7. *GenericHandle* (0)
8. MoosyDoosy (0)
9. Shun Goku Satsu Rake

(3): SneakyTako, RadRat, Zaixl

Not Voting (3): Orbo, Koopa, Maven

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to vanquish!
Deadline is set for Tuesday, 10/6 at 5:00pm MST​

Deadline is in less than 30 hours!​

 

[sneakytako]

That was actually a really good press. That said, I am unconvinced. I'm more open to a Rake lynch now, but he's still leaningg town. I'll explain why in the morning.

Still waiting on why rake is town.

 

[sneakytako]

Heading out to a smashfest, VLA until later tonight.

Feel free to hammer me or rake. My faction becomes more powerful once I've flipped, and you guys know how much I want to lynch rake.

 

[Kaladin]

Still waiting on why rake is town.

Swamped with school rn, and I feel this warrants a text wall. I'll try to get it in before deadline, but idk

 

[Orboknown]

Gheb prolly died because hes a solid player who wouldnt be docced n1

 

[Maven89]

Well I looked it up, yeah SneakyTaco has some good points. He semi-touched on this but I also think the strangeness of Bard's intial posts towards Rake make sense as scum distancing, especially since it went nowhere.

Really should have had this information posted earlier, but at the same time we shouldn't have been so lazy and just waited for him to respond.

Vote: Rake

Deadline is soon so lets get this done and if he's town we can discuss how terrible our play was today

 

[RadicalRat]

We need one more to hammer.

@MoosyDoosy
We lynch Rake toDay, and look at Zaixl a bit closer toMorrow? You're the only Town Read I have that hasn't voted yet.

 

[Orboknown]

Vote:Rake
For the record i dont think hes scum but im in no position to seing a different dorection at this point nor doni have the energy tonight to do so

 

[sneakytako]

Well I looked it up, yeah SneakyTaco has some good points. He semi-touched on this but I also think the strangeness of Bard's intial posts towards Rake make sense as scum distancing, especially since it went nowhere.

Really should have had this information posted earlier, but at the same time we shouldn't have been so lazy and just waited for him to respond.

Vote: Rake

Deadline is soon so lets get this done and if he's town we can discuss how terrible our play was today

Honestly in hindsight I probably should have just posted my reasoning. I figured somebody would come to the same conclusion, but oh well live and learn.