I'm going to admit that I skipped most of this thread after my first post, which was initially ridiculed. I was busy coming up with some numbers and facts to back up what I said. So, in classic GoldShadow Interesting Facts style, here is my anti-smoking argument:
CLAIM #1:
Much more tax revenue is lost due to smoking deaths than is made up for by the excise tax on smoking.
EVIDENCE: I’m going to use numbers for the United States, but this trend holds true in just about every country according to all sources I found. Let’s start here:
According to the CDC, in 2000 the average tax per pack of cigarettes was $0.76 (
http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/tables/economics/cigtax.htm
). According to the Federal Trade Commission, 398.3 billion cigarettes were sold in 2001 in the US; at 20 cigarettes/pack, this means 19.915 billion packs were sold. At an average tax of 76 cents per pack, the government made about
$151,354,000 in cigarette excise taxes. (
http://www.ftc.gov/opa/2003/06/2001cigrpt.shtm)
Also according to the CDC, about 440,000 persons die per year of a cigarette smoking-attributable illness, resulting in 5.6 million years of potential life lost (
http://www.cdc.gov/MMWR/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5235a4.htm).
The average life expectancy according to the CDC is 77.8 years (
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lifexpec.htm).
And finally, according to this BBC article which references a 50-year long study, the decrease in life expectancy for smokers is ~10 years on average (
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/3826127.stm).
I chose to examine the loss in income tax due to smoking deaths; to do so, I looked up data on the amount of income tax paid by age group (on average of course), data that can be found on the National Bureau of Economic Research web page; the data is from about 1996, so it’s pretty close to the 2000 data on cigarette taxes. (
http://www.nber.org/~taxsim/byage/)
Now, putting this all together:
Average life expectancy is 77.8 years. Using the income tax data from the NBER, assuming that the average smokers lives to about 68 years old but the average person lives to 78, we can calculate the average income tax lost by a single smoker by multiplying the age groups times the number of years:
Income tax age 68-70 = (2 years)($25100)= $50200
Income tax age 70-75 = (5 years)($13200)= $66000
Income tax age 75-78 = (3 years)($6632)= $19896
Adding these all together, we get $50200+$66000+$19896 =
$136096 lost per smoker on average. Multiply by 440,000 smokers dead per year, and that’s
$59,882,240,000 lost in lifetime income taxes.
In other words, in one year, smokers paid about $151 MILLION in cigarette excise taxes, but lifetime potential income tax that was lost due to premature death of smokers was almost $60 BILLION, or about $6 BILLION/YEAR.
Additionally, according to a study of the economic effects of smoking in various countries published in Salud pública de México (a Mexican journal on public health):
“…that tobacco consumption leads to high health care costs, involves a cost to employers due to productivity losses and worker disability, and represents a high social cost resulting from the occurrence of premature deaths in the society.”
It also concludes that, total cost due to health problems, lost productivity, second hand smoke, etc for men: $220,000 and for women: $106,000. (
http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?...0036-36342006000700023&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en)
And according to a similar public health study by a Scandinavian journal:
“The estimated total cost for Sweden 2001 was US 804 million dollars; COPD and cancer of the lung accounted for 43%. Healthcare cost accounted for 26% of the total cost. The estimated costs per smoker were US 3,200 dollars in the USA 1998; 1,600 in Canada 1991; 1,100 in Germany 1996; 600 in Sweden 2001; and 300 in Sweden 1980 (all in 2001 US dollar prices)”
Citation:
Scandinavian journal of public health [1403-4948] Bolin yr.2007 vol.35 iss.2 pg.187 -96
Smoking, healthcare cost, and loss of productivity in Sweden 2001.