All Characters Match-up Chart (9/07 update)

[HyugaRicdeau]

Just a statistical note for everyone:

If a character matchup is "6," this means that the most likely outcome is a 5-4 set, or that the character wins 5/9 = 55.555...% of matches. This does not however mean that he will win 55.555...% of best of 9 sets.

In fact, the character will win 62.423% of the best of 9 sets. If it were a best of 3 set, it would be 58.3%. The acutal chance that the set will be -exactly- 5-4 is 17.4%, but it is the most likely outcome.

If it's "7," it will win 83.71% of best of 9 sets. If it were a best of 3 set, it would be 74.074%
If it's "8," it will win 96.127% of best of 9 sets. If it were a best of 3 set, it would be 87.38%
If it's "9," it will win 99.79% of best of 9 sets. If it were a best of 3 set, it would be 96.57%

Since most people are used to best of 3 sets, you can use those percentages along with your past personal experience to make your judgement about rating. Feel free to check my math, the combinatorics aren't that simple, I may have messed up somewhere, but I'm certain that these percentages are correct within about 5%

 

[Luck-NYC/NJ]

hey i noticed tht is says peach doesnt do well against marth does everyone agree with this and why?

 

[arrowhead]

marth has range

 

[mood4food77]

marth has a sword, speed, range, and disjointed, peach hates all of them

 

[JFox]

a couple questions: how does Puff does well against IC's? I would probably switch the numbers...puff gets like a 3 against IC's. And why is does Peach have the advantage against Falcon? I always thought it was the other way around? I personally feel you should give Falcon the 6 to 4 advantage over Marth, but thats just IMO.

Lastly, I feel that you strongly underestimate Y.link's and Link's matchups. For Y.Link, I think he does much better that you give him credit for against Samus, and IC's(at least 4's if not 5's). And I personally think he goes even with Puff, Doc, and Mario. Also Link has either has the advantage over Y.Link, or they are even at best.
Link a 2 against Fox?! You think Fox is just as hard a matchup as Sheik?! Wow...I would give it a link a 4 in the matchup, and the same goes for Falco. Marth I would say is even with Link. Also Mario, Doc, and Ganon are at least a 5, if not 6 in Link's favor.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Marth ***** Falcon's recovery too hard. But Falcon combos Marth easily at ANY percent. A claim Marth can't make. He has to wait until slightly higher percents to begin comboing Falcon.

 

[JFox]

IIRC, I believe Ken believes Marth to have the slight disadvantage against Falcon. And if any Marth knows the matchup, its Ken since he's been playing the best Marth for years, and has been playing against the best Falcon for years.

 

[BigRick]

A Tier List is a List of "Tourney Viability."

Untrue. Our Tier list is like this because the SSBM community just tried to be original. The majority of Tier lists rank characters simply in terms of their strentghs/weaknesses.

Heck, I think that the old SSBM Tier lists followed these criterias... that's why there was a big buzz when the latest list got released.

So basically you make your list by ranking the characters while following a set of rules. So if sum ppl in this thread just want to add up the scores for every matchup, then make a Tier list based on that, let them be.

I like how some of you try to use a statiscal approach by using this chart in order to create ''Tourney viability'' list, but the accuracy of this won't be good because there's mistakes in the chart and you would need to poll the entire SSBM community in order to know the ratios of mains and secondaries that are used at a tourney. Also, there's other factors like stage bans, counterpicks (char or stage) that can affect the viability of sum chars so trying to go there is not a question.

Hmm, so basically I think that this thread deserves a Tier list, one that is based on matchups only. It won't be the official Tier list though, and it would be a nice complement to the chart. There is 2 ways to make a list based on matchups: either you add all the scores, or you add-up the number of positive/negative/equal matchups.

Btw, I also think that the official Tier list should be remade into one that takes account of the characters' attributes. Making a list about the metagame leaves too much room for subjectivity IMO.

EDIT: If you take a look at 3S, I think that they have a list based on matchups, and another based on metagame... so I guess there's room for more than one list round here also

 

[Mogwai]

Untrue. Our Tier list is like this because the SSBM community just tried to be original. The majority of Tier lists rank characters simply in terms of their strentghs/weaknesses.

Heck, I think that the old SSBM Tier lists followed these criterias... that's why there was a big buzz when the latest list got released.

So basically you make your list by ranking the characters while following a set of rules. So if sum ppl in this thread just want to add up the scores for every matchup, then make a Tier list based on that, let them be.

I like how some of you try to use a statiscal approach by using this chart in order to create ''Tourney viability'' list, but the accuracy of this won't be good because there's mistakes in the chart and you would need to poll the entire SSBM community in order to know the ratios of mains and secondaries that are used at a tourney. Also, there's other factors like stage bans, counterpicks (char or stage) that can affect the viability of sum chars so trying to go there is not a question.

Hmm, so basically I think that this thread deserves a Tier list, one that is based on matchups only. It won't be the official Tier list though, and it would be a nice complement to the chart. There is 2 ways to make a list based on matchups: either you add all the scores, or you add-up the number of positive/negative/equal matchups.

Btw, I also think that the official Tier list should be remade into one that takes account of the characters' attributes. Making a list about the metagame leaves too much room for subjectivity IMO.

EDIT: If you take a look at 3S, I think that they have a list based on matchups, and another based on metagame... so I guess there's room for more than one list round here also

On the contrary, a strengths/weaknesses chart is more subjective. Tournament viabilty is something you can determine from tournament results, strength/weaknesses are theoretical. I mean, I no longer care very much about this, but hey, I can't turn down a debate that involves real points, I'd like to know how you think strengths/weaknesses are more concrete than tournament results.

 

[BigRick]

Hmm our current tier list is based around Tournament Viability, but I doubt that Tournament Results were the only thing that came into its creation.

But if a Tier list was based 100% on tournament results, then I totally agree with you, it would be more objective than a list based on character attributes.

I gotta go to sleep now, but I don't mind exchanging about this in the next few days.

 

[Emblem Lord]

JFox: I think it's even. I think it's one of the most even fights in the game. Second only to Fox vs Marth in terms of how even it is.

 

[pockyD]

looks like ness doesn't have a single negative matchup in the low tiers o_o

i don't play ness (though maybe i should if he's that good?) but is that right?

 

[Mogwai]

looks like ness doesn't have a single negative matchup in the low tiers o_o

i don't play ness (though maybe i should if he's that good?) but is that right?

I'm pretty sure this is wrong, but I'm not sure how. . . I don't understand how he's good vs. luigi, Link, Y.Link or Roy to be honest.

Hmm our current tier list is based around Tournament Viability, but I doubt that Tournament Results were the only thing that came into its creation.

But if a Tier list was based 100% on tournament results, then I totally agree with you, it would be more objective than a list based on character attributes.

I gotta go to sleep now, but I don't mind exchanging about this in the next few days.

Well, I think the theory is that the primary driving force in its creation were tournament results, but let's put the current list aside for a second.

I want to prove here that strengths and weaknesses and tournament viability are more or less the same thing. Let's say we were to put together a chart based soley on what you're calling strengths and weaknesses, which in the case of a matchup chart involves simply adding all the matchups.

HYPOTHETICAL
Now, lets use an extreme case here, where we have smash bros, but the matchups are far more broken, with say, Fox having a 7 matchup against everyone but himself, and Shiek having a 9 matchup against everyone but herself and Fox(who she has a 3 against, since he has a 7 on her). Simple addition leads us to the conclusion that Shiek is a stronger character (Shiek would have a 224 and Fox would have a mere 180), despite the glaring weakness against Fox, because all her other matchups are a ****. But Fox still more or less ***** everyone, even Shiek, so as a smart player, you're surely going to play fox because you can still expect to beat everyone else.

So where did the addition screw up if Fox is pretty clearly the better character in this example? The fact is that strengths and weaknesses can't just be looked at in terms of adding all matchups up. I suppose one could argue that Shiek is still the stronger character in the example above, and while I don't believe this, either way, she shouldn't be 44 points better than the most tournament viable character. I guess what I'm really trying to get at is that after a certain point, extra strength in a matchup starts to lose value. Whether your character expects to 4 stock Bowser every game, or just expects to beat him by 2 stocks, it doesn't really matter, the match doesn't give poor Boozer much of a chance. In actuallity, it's the strengths that give you the edge you need in an otherwise close matchup that really define a resiliant and powerful character.

 

[blast_ssbb]

where ever wesley is having a discussion about anything im sure to follow.

 

[pockyD]

right... matchups against the top 7-8 or so are much more important and should carry more weight than the matchups against the bottom few

 

[Coen]

Phanna, if you need Pichu matchups, just ask.

 

[phanna]

Phanna, if you need Pichu matchups, just ask.

The more feedback, the better.

 

[mood4food77]

ness only does really bad against g&w in the low tiers, he does surprisingly well against the rest, and also, his sparkle has insane range, it's what keeps him getting completely ***** by high tiers (especially peach and sheik)

 

[Earthbound360]

Wait, Ness is ***** hardcore by Sheik. Peach, I may understand, but Ness barely stands a chance against a Sheik from my experience. BTW Phanna, the matchup thread in the Ness forums is getting better. You should take a look.

Ness looks pretty good to me actually. He does do well against Links and Roy.

 

[mood4food77]

he has some chance, he does better than most low tiers do, it's gotta be the sparkle

that's what i think, and ness is my secondary

 

[StripesOrBars]

Ness gets his *** ****ed by Shiek.

Like every character under Peach on the tier list.

End. Of. Story.

 

[mood4food77]

not ICs and the marios, i don't feel ness gets *** ***** by sheik, yea it's a very bad match-up, i don't feel he doesn't completely *****, he has somethings he can do, but it's a sheik and she'll win

 

[Mogwai]

I understand that sparkle is really powerful, but does it seriously make up for all the problems Ness has against Link, Young Link, Roy, Luigi? I mean, it's good and all, but Link and Young Link out speed ness and out projectile him and have detatched hit boxes. Roy out speeds him, also has a detatched hit box and can kill him retardedly early with fsmash. I guess I can see Luigi having problems here, but the other 3 seems like they should at least have an advantage vs. Ness.

 

[cradmazy_SKAG]

Also Link has either has the advantage over Y.Link, or they are even at best.
Link a 2 against Fox?! You think Fox is just as hard a matchup as Sheik?! Wow...I would give it a link a 4 in the matchup, and the same goes for Falco. Marth I would say is even with Link. Also Mario, Doc, and Ganon are at least a 5, if not 6 in Link's favor.

Well said. your my boy, JFox... YOUR MY BOY!!!

nah but seriously its tough stickin up for link, he gets no respect these days... for having top tier recovery and all kinds of cleverness...

 

[ToP CaT]

hey phanna, ask me if you need anything on zelda matchups

 

[mood4food77]

ness is the 3rd fastest character in the game, only fox and falcon out speed him, falco comes in a close 4th, i guess you haven't seen the **** of the uair from ness, have you?

 

[Gimpyfish62]

ness is horrible lol

i'll give some bowser matchups sometime too

 

[Luck-NYC/NJ]

EH YO SKAG U MY BOY!!!! i agree with skag man link gets no respect now a days because of all those gay fox falco players now. FRIKIN TIER HORS

 

[HyugaRicdeau]

ness is the 3rd fastest character in the game, only fox and falcon out speed him, falco comes in a close 4th, i guess you haven't seen the **** of the uair from ness, have you?

I think you take things Simna says too seriously. Aside from the fact that one can't even make this comparison without a well-defined idea of what "fast" is, I'm pretty sure that no matter what definition you use, Ness is far from 3rd fastest.

And I may post Zelda and GW matchup ideas later.

EDIT: One more thing, that 6 for Sheik against Kirby is just baseless. The only reason anyone ever produced for Kirby nearly going even with Sheik is that one extremely old video of Isai's Kirby vs Ken's Sheik. It should be at least an 8.

 

[mood4food77]

ness is fast, not at approaching but in juggling, and it requires almost as fast fingers to use ness as to use fox, ness is fast

 

[JFox]

mood4food, ness is no where near fastest. anyone can DJC and Lcancel, and whip out moves quick as hell. Watch Ryoko play his Peach. A lot of characters can do this actually. Watch a Zelda player double Fair or Bair, thats a lot of quick moves. Hell, Ganon can even throw out quick moves. But do these characters have an offensive approach equal to Fox, Falcon, Sheik, Falco, etc.? Nope.

and juggling speed is irrelevant because juggling implies comboing. And combos are combos no matter how slow they link up. Finger speed really means very little either.

And since when is speed so crucial? Pika is fast, but does anyone use that as a reason for why he should be top tier? Marth is not as fast, but he certainly has a stronger game. Speed is not always that important.

 

[sagemoon]

correct me if im wrong, but shouldnt counter jigglypuff because of his 1 hit ko from the reverse B-up

 

[Mankosuki]

especially since Jiggs can also CC to avoid death from Roy's reverse up-b.

 

[mood4food77]

i know speed is not that important, but ness is fast, no one sees it

yea peach is fast, but is she able to perform 8 seperate moves in 10 seconds, i don't think so, he combo's like the top tier characters do, fast, but he still sucks, but just like spacies, in the right situation he can rack up damage, with spamming

 

[ToP CaT]

doesnt jiggs die from a shield break??? AUTOMATIC BASEMENT TIER!!

 

[BigRick]

Hmm, it seems the current tier list isn't affected only by tournament results, but also by character matchups.

I want to prove here that strengths and weaknesses and tournament viability are more or less the same thing. Let's say we were to put together a chart based soley on what you're calling strengths and weaknesses, which in the case of a matchup chart involves simply adding all the matchups.

[...]

Sry I cut down on the exemple that you provided... cause this would have made my post too long...

Sry I think I wasn't clear enough in my explanations... I always considered that a tier list based on a character's strentgh/weaknesses wouldn't be the same as a tier list based on a character's matchups. Furthermore, a tier list based on tournament viability would be another thing again... what I wanted to point out in my original post is that you could make an infinite amount of tier lists, it's just that you have to choose how you're going to rank the chars.

In my words, a tier list based on a character's strentgh/weakness (or attributes) would rank characters based on the facts that we currently know about their KOing ability, recovery and other stuff that would help them win a matchup.

Exemple: Fox is one of the best characters because he's fast, can deal damage, and has some good KO moves. Peach is a good character, but we could say that Fox is better because he is faster and he has better KO ability... she has better recovery though.

^^The main problem with that kind of list though would be to determine which attributes are more important in order to achieve victory. A list like this should be strickly based on facts though, like frame data and stuff...

On the other hand, a matchup chart like one Phanna made is created by comparing the attributes of 2 chars, and by estimating who should win the matchup if they're controlled by evenly skilled players.

So basically adding the scores up for each char's matchup and ranking the chars accordingly would make a character matchup based tier list, but not an attribute based tier list... even though the outcome of character matchups are estimated with attributes.

Kinda tired of typing... lemme know what you think of this before we discuss about a ''Tournament viability'' type of tier list...

 

[Earthbound360]

Well, no one will take me seriously since they will think I am biased, but Ness truly is fast. Probably since no one respects him some disagree. All his aerials have quick startup and little lag. Ness can DjC which is twice as fast as a shuffle. Ness also has the fastest DjCing ability in general (Mewtwo's fair is faster, but that's only one aerial).

 

[Silent Wolf]

For the record, Fox has about a 70/30 lead in the match up vs Sheik.
</From experience.>

 

[Gimpyfish62]

who cares, ness is horrible lol @ earthbound

 

[mood4food77]

bowser is worse =0

there is also a reason why ness is considered to have one of the best air games, in the game

at least ness can hold up against some of the high tier characters unlike bowser