September Results Write-up, aka, the first quarter of Phase 3. By Das Koopa/Barnard's Loop/Zero_Destroyer.
From August, the changes were...
Bayonetta +2.7%
Mewtwo +2.4%
Other +1.3%
Fox +1.2%
Ryu +0.5%
Cloud +0.4%
Ness +0.4%
Captain Falcon +0.4%
Mega Man +0.3%
Greninja +0.2%
Marth +0.2%
R.O.B = 1.9%
Meta Knight -0.3%
Mario -0.4%
Sonic -0.5%
Zero Suit Samus -0.8%
Rosalina & Luma -2.0%
Diddy Kong -2.5%
Sheik -3.0%
OFF: Toon Link, Villager, Peach
NEW: Donkey Kong, Yoshi, Corrin
The only characters suffering from a loss in this iteration were high-tiers, sans Meta Knight. Sheik and Diddy suffered from staggering losses, with Sheik plummeting from trading 1st and 2nd to a far-back 7th. While Mr. R's lack of recent attendance undoubtedly has an effect on this, his share of 16% applied to this wouldn't give Sheik a significant enough boost to put her back. Thus, it's likely that Sheik is simply performing worse on a regional level, Sheik mains are not in attendance, or the tournament pile this month used a lot of regions where Sheik isn't prominent. VoiD's poor placement at Abadango Saga didn't help this.
Rosalina & Luma also suffered from significant losses, however, Dabuz accounts for a massive 38% of Rosalina's results, clocking in over 100 of her 269 points in the Summer of Smash/1.1.6 iteration. This is likely why she's ranked in the same position as Donkey Kong and Falcon.
Bayonetta saw a significant rise over the month, almost assuredly due to the continued efforts of Salem, with small pushes being from a re-invigorated Tyroy and 9B, alongside a good showing from Pink Fresh at Glitch 2. This is Bayonetta's best month in a while.
Cloud takes first in the weighted system for the (first?) time, at least, in a while, and with a solid 15-20 point lead on the closest competitors. Komorikiri's efforts in the U.S. alongside an increased density of Cloud users seen in the results chart are likely responsible. It's hard to say if this will persistent, but I detailed extensively how Cloud is likely overscored proportionate to the character's accomplishments. Tweek's return to form and Komorkiri proving himself at MSM and 2GGT:AS are two openings for Cloud to make himself a meta-relevant force at the upcoming Supermajor, The Big House 6.
Probably the most surprising gain, however...
Fox pretty much blew up, with a narrow second place finish on the September list. Continued performances from Fox players worldwide helped propel him into this position, including an incredibly Loser's Bracket run by Larry Lurr at 2GGT, SH and Shogun placing back-to-back at the most recent Sumabato in 3rd and 4th place respectively, and so on. His strong regional presence capped by a second place at a major has helped further solidify Fox as one of the most relevant and dangerous characters in the current meta game.
The Upper Category chart continues to be a bit of a fun one. These are the total tournaments used:
This demonstrates multiple things.
1: Marth has really stepped it up.
While most people are perfectly aware of how much better Marth has fared as of late, Mr. E's win at Glitch 2 is probably the best solo-Marth run ever and places Mr. E as the definitive best solo-Marth and possibly the best Marth as a whole. This is after months of dedication, and the scores are really starting to reflect this, with a very respectable 13th, ahead of a declining character (Toon Link) with his next biggest threat being more inconsistent top-level threats like Peach or Donkey Kong. With this, he's effectively crossed the threshold and should probably be referred to as a high-tier, assuming we separate "Top" from "High".
2: Mega Man does better when regionals are excluded.
At an impressive 11th, Mega Man's accomplishments are laid bare for all to see. Kamemushi's continued good performance (a 2nd, 4th, and 1st at significant tournies) continue to demonstrate the character's capacity and that certain oft-dreaded matchups like Sheik aren't stopping him or his rise at high-level tournaments, with both a pre-TBH6 local and TBH6 itself being potential places for Kamemushi to further demonstrate how far the character can go.
3: Ryu doesn't do so well at the top level.
While you have occasional testaments of Ryu's relevancy like Trela's run at EVO, you might find that Ryu's good scores on top 16 weighted lists are likely due to strong regional performances more than a national-level prevalence. I've touched on this before, but it really sticks out like a sore thumb that Ryu plummets 8-9 places when only high-skill pool tournaments are up for consideration. Venom, DarkShad, and other regional mains are helping this character's meta chug along, but Trela's rather unfortunate (read: disastrous, sans EVO) Summer performance caused a lot of questioning towards Ryu's impressive Top 16 weighted scores in spite of a bad run by the best national Ryu.
4: Olimar is apparently good I guess.
With Olimar's Unweighted Scores demonstrating a strong capacity for the character, the Upper Category list does much the same... albeit, with the asterisk of a lot of the score coming from Dabuz using the character as a secondary. This doesn't account for Shuton's dominance in his own region, although it does include Shuton's 9th at Umebura SAT.
Top 8 Weighted and the long-term tracking from March 15th to now:
Not much to say on either of these. The former has a lot of correlation with the Top 16 list with a few small move-arounds. Mr. Game & Watch having 32 points in the Top 16 iteration is something to note, with mild discrepancies allowing him to edge his way in to the tail end of the Top 8 weighted. Thank Extra for this, and the increasing number of decent regional G&W performances. Notably, he also had a significant gain in the long-term Tracking, now clocking in at 79 points over a near-7 month period.
Even more profound? Both Link and G&W, with a score of 79, beat out Pit's 78. Pit is in a very unique situation where very few incidental mains even exist. As in, characters like Link or G&W will randomly get bumps from one-off 13ths or 9ths, and this can add up, while Pit doesn't even have much of that. His life sorta sucks.
Oh, and you may notice something... different.
THE DEATH OF THE UNWEIGHTED SYSTEM
The primary reason for me dropping the unweighted charts is due to it being an additional time investment for no significant additional information, as anything statistically relevant in this regard is usually apparent without examinung number. High incidence of pocket Clouds, or characters like Olimar being boosted heavily due to Dabuz using him as a secondary, etc. I have to manually write in all of the numbers, and this takes a lot of time (especially with a massive number of tournaments during September) so even when a discrepancy exists it'd probably be easier to just investigate the raw data in the database.
BOTTOM LINE
September is a transitional month between months of results a new meta blast. We'll see how things level out in a month, as Phase 3 runs until the end of the year (where you'll get an end-of-year retrospective <3) but for now you should come to expect a lot of weird anomalies and oddities on a short time scale, like certain characters having abnormally low/high scores. This likely has to do with attendance of certain mains, which typically levels itself out unless certain characters simply see little-to-no usage.
Full results for every format:
Methodology: (This will updated next month)
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1m_3mnTm2CUhlxzi-vlN29OwEbQlUcJN6V1em2cX8aAw/edit
Results Thread:
https://smashboards.com/threads/tournament-placing-database-scoring-project.437773/
Previous Month:
https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...tive-impressions.440784/page-38#post-21431798
I will be updating the Results thread soon™. First week of October was lax of data, so I took the time I'd spend filling in scores to make this stuff, but I've been bad about updating the results database itself.
From August, the changes were...
Bayonetta +2.7%
Mewtwo +2.4%
Other +1.3%
Fox +1.2%
Ryu +0.5%
Cloud +0.4%
Ness +0.4%
Captain Falcon +0.4%
Mega Man +0.3%
Greninja +0.2%
Marth +0.2%
R.O.B = 1.9%
Meta Knight -0.3%
Mario -0.4%
Sonic -0.5%
Zero Suit Samus -0.8%
Rosalina & Luma -2.0%
Diddy Kong -2.5%
Sheik -3.0%
OFF: Toon Link, Villager, Peach
NEW: Donkey Kong, Yoshi, Corrin
The only characters suffering from a loss in this iteration were high-tiers, sans Meta Knight. Sheik and Diddy suffered from staggering losses, with Sheik plummeting from trading 1st and 2nd to a far-back 7th. While Mr. R's lack of recent attendance undoubtedly has an effect on this, his share of 16% applied to this wouldn't give Sheik a significant enough boost to put her back. Thus, it's likely that Sheik is simply performing worse on a regional level, Sheik mains are not in attendance, or the tournament pile this month used a lot of regions where Sheik isn't prominent. VoiD's poor placement at Abadango Saga didn't help this.
Rosalina & Luma also suffered from significant losses, however, Dabuz accounts for a massive 38% of Rosalina's results, clocking in over 100 of her 269 points in the Summer of Smash/1.1.6 iteration. This is likely why she's ranked in the same position as Donkey Kong and Falcon.
Bayonetta saw a significant rise over the month, almost assuredly due to the continued efforts of Salem, with small pushes being from a re-invigorated Tyroy and 9B, alongside a good showing from Pink Fresh at Glitch 2. This is Bayonetta's best month in a while.
Cloud takes first in the weighted system for the (first?) time, at least, in a while, and with a solid 15-20 point lead on the closest competitors. Komorikiri's efforts in the U.S. alongside an increased density of Cloud users seen in the results chart are likely responsible. It's hard to say if this will persistent, but I detailed extensively how Cloud is likely overscored proportionate to the character's accomplishments. Tweek's return to form and Komorkiri proving himself at MSM and 2GGT:AS are two openings for Cloud to make himself a meta-relevant force at the upcoming Supermajor, The Big House 6.
Probably the most surprising gain, however...
Fox pretty much blew up, with a narrow second place finish on the September list. Continued performances from Fox players worldwide helped propel him into this position, including an incredibly Loser's Bracket run by Larry Lurr at 2GGT, SH and Shogun placing back-to-back at the most recent Sumabato in 3rd and 4th place respectively, and so on. His strong regional presence capped by a second place at a major has helped further solidify Fox as one of the most relevant and dangerous characters in the current meta game.
The Upper Category chart continues to be a bit of a fun one. These are the total tournaments used:
This demonstrates multiple things.
1: Marth has really stepped it up.
While most people are perfectly aware of how much better Marth has fared as of late, Mr. E's win at Glitch 2 is probably the best solo-Marth run ever and places Mr. E as the definitive best solo-Marth and possibly the best Marth as a whole. This is after months of dedication, and the scores are really starting to reflect this, with a very respectable 13th, ahead of a declining character (Toon Link) with his next biggest threat being more inconsistent top-level threats like Peach or Donkey Kong. With this, he's effectively crossed the threshold and should probably be referred to as a high-tier, assuming we separate "Top" from "High".
2: Mega Man does better when regionals are excluded.
At an impressive 11th, Mega Man's accomplishments are laid bare for all to see. Kamemushi's continued good performance (a 2nd, 4th, and 1st at significant tournies) continue to demonstrate the character's capacity and that certain oft-dreaded matchups like Sheik aren't stopping him or his rise at high-level tournaments, with both a pre-TBH6 local and TBH6 itself being potential places for Kamemushi to further demonstrate how far the character can go.
3: Ryu doesn't do so well at the top level.
While you have occasional testaments of Ryu's relevancy like Trela's run at EVO, you might find that Ryu's good scores on top 16 weighted lists are likely due to strong regional performances more than a national-level prevalence. I've touched on this before, but it really sticks out like a sore thumb that Ryu plummets 8-9 places when only high-skill pool tournaments are up for consideration. Venom, DarkShad, and other regional mains are helping this character's meta chug along, but Trela's rather unfortunate (read: disastrous, sans EVO) Summer performance caused a lot of questioning towards Ryu's impressive Top 16 weighted scores in spite of a bad run by the best national Ryu.
4: Olimar is apparently good I guess.
With Olimar's Unweighted Scores demonstrating a strong capacity for the character, the Upper Category list does much the same... albeit, with the asterisk of a lot of the score coming from Dabuz using the character as a secondary. This doesn't account for Shuton's dominance in his own region, although it does include Shuton's 9th at Umebura SAT.
Top 8 Weighted and the long-term tracking from March 15th to now:
Not much to say on either of these. The former has a lot of correlation with the Top 16 list with a few small move-arounds. Mr. Game & Watch having 32 points in the Top 16 iteration is something to note, with mild discrepancies allowing him to edge his way in to the tail end of the Top 8 weighted. Thank Extra for this, and the increasing number of decent regional G&W performances. Notably, he also had a significant gain in the long-term Tracking, now clocking in at 79 points over a near-7 month period.
Even more profound? Both Link and G&W, with a score of 79, beat out Pit's 78. Pit is in a very unique situation where very few incidental mains even exist. As in, characters like Link or G&W will randomly get bumps from one-off 13ths or 9ths, and this can add up, while Pit doesn't even have much of that. His life sorta sucks.
Oh, and you may notice something... different.
THE DEATH OF THE UNWEIGHTED SYSTEM
The primary reason for me dropping the unweighted charts is due to it being an additional time investment for no significant additional information, as anything statistically relevant in this regard is usually apparent without examinung number. High incidence of pocket Clouds, or characters like Olimar being boosted heavily due to Dabuz using him as a secondary, etc. I have to manually write in all of the numbers, and this takes a lot of time (especially with a massive number of tournaments during September) so even when a discrepancy exists it'd probably be easier to just investigate the raw data in the database.
BOTTOM LINE
September is a transitional month between months of results a new meta blast. We'll see how things level out in a month, as Phase 3 runs until the end of the year (where you'll get an end-of-year retrospective <3) but for now you should come to expect a lot of weird anomalies and oddities on a short time scale, like certain characters having abnormally low/high scores. This likely has to do with attendance of certain mains, which typically levels itself out unless certain characters simply see little-to-no usage.
Full results for every format:
Methodology: (This will updated next month)
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1m_3mnTm2CUhlxzi-vlN29OwEbQlUcJN6V1em2cX8aAw/edit
Results Thread:
https://smashboards.com/threads/tournament-placing-database-scoring-project.437773/
Previous Month:
https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...tive-impressions.440784/page-38#post-21431798
I will be updating the Results thread soon™. First week of October was lax of data, so I took the time I'd spend filling in scores to make this stuff, but I've been bad about updating the results database itself.
