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Official 4BR Tier List v2.0 - Competitive Impressions

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DunnoBro

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Mewtwo is not top 5 as long as Diddy exists. People understate how big a weakness his hurtbox is as well
Not only is the diddy MU fine, but losing to 1 character doesn't mean you're not top 5 lol

M2 only clearly loses to bayo. Even if he lost to diddy (possible but since top m2's learned the mu it's considered even except by aba) those are most likely top 1/2 characters that boast the most winning/even mus in the game, including the other top 5.
 
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FeelMeUp

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Sheik isn't lighter than M2. What?
She's around the same weight as ZSS and Meta Knight with the added bonus of being a fastfaller for vertical survival. You sure you're not thinking of something else?
She may be easier to TRUE combo than M2 with some of the cast, but the weight nerfs actually made comboing her become a good deal more difficult with some of the cast. Such as :4luigi: with dthrow interactions at 0 and :4diddy:with the guaranteed Hoohah %.
 

DunnoBro

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Sheik isn't lighter than M2. What?
She's around the same weight as ZSS and Meta Knight with the added bonus of being a fastfaller for vertical survival. You sure you're not thinking of something else?
She may be easier to TRUE combo than M2 with some of the cast, but the weight nerfs actually made comboing her become a good deal more difficult with some of the cast. Such as :4luigi: with dthrow interactions at 0 and :4diddy:with the guaranteed Hoohah %.
Checked and you're right, got confused since the weight changes were switched by exact values at the same time but not the raw weight themselves. Also recently did some testing on a kill confirm sheik dies earlier to, but forgot how big a factor gravity was for horizontal kill confirms so my perspective as a bit skewed I guess.

Anywho, the weight nerfs might've changed her low % strings, but it also changed how kill confirms work on her. There might be some nuances of her lower weight but it's... Still a huge hindrance.

Like, no way anti's usmash would've killed puppeh's sheik prepatch.
 
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Myollnir

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Wait, the fastfall thing allows you to survive longer in Melee, but not in Smash 4. Or does it?

I've found this on KuroganeHammer :
Higher gravity also increases the knockback taken by a character when they go into tumble. It affects all vertical angles between 0 and 180 degrees.
 

DunnoBro

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Wait, the fastfall thing allows you to survive longer in Melee, but not in Smash 4. Or does it?

I've found this on KuroganeHammer :
Higher gravity also increases the knockback taken by a character when they go into tumble. It affects all vertical angles between 0 and 180 degrees.
Fastfallers definitely die later to vertical knockback. Finishing touch is like the embodiment of that mechanic, ignoring weight entirely.
 

FeelMeUp

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May as well put insomnia to good use.
VoiD's kill percents in available VODs for both Abadango Saga and MSM 67
vs Nairo :4zss: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbmQS6vnJvg

Battlefield:
149% after needles to BF(started at 134%)

Smashville:
123% after fsmash punish(started at 109%)

Smashville:
155% after strong nair ledgetrap(started at 147%)
127% after uair>drag down dsmash(started at 114%)

Dreamland:
128% after Nair>Bouncing Fish(started at 112%)
135% after raw Uair(started at 130%)

Duck Hunt:
184% after Bair ledgetrap(started at 177%)

vs Elegant :4luigi:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXBTvlVucyc
Smashville:
110% after Ftilt>Vanish(started at 93%)

Final Destination:
151% after Ftilt>Bouncing Fish(started at 134%)

vs Falln:rosalina: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEtmX8r8qG8
Final Destination:
161% after double kick Bouncing Fish(started at 138%)
192% after extended edgeguard sequence(last hit at 185%, ledgetrap/edgeguard started at 116% until he died to a Luma dair while Falln was at at 161%. Falln spent the entire stock after 70% on the ledge)

Duck Hunt:
128% after Fair edgeguard(started at 123%)

Battlefield:
213% after a grenade(started at 198%)
114% after Bouncing Fish stagespike(started at 102%)

Dream Land:
128% after Usmash (started at 112%)
104% after tipper dtilt>Usmash (started at 83%)

vs SlowJoe :4fox: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsNwcJEasRs
Final Destination:
91% after rising Fair>Bouncing Fish to close out a ledge trap(started at 75%)
131% after Fthrow>Uair(started at 113%)

Town and City:
65% after rising Fair strings>Bouncing Fish(started at 37%)
97% after Nair>Needles>Ftilt>Usmash(started at 63%)

vs k9sBruce:4diddy: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkgzbd8OPoQ
Smashville:
131% after Ftilt>Vanish(started at 114%)

Final Destination:
132% after Usmash(started at 117%)

vs k9sBruce :4diddy: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np5SBMFzVhc
Smashville:
132% after Nair>Fsmash(started at 114%)
k9 then SDs around 148% so I won't count that.

Town and City:
103% after Ftilt>Usmash(started at 83%)
68% after needle edgeguard(started at 65%)

Town and City:
66% after Bair stagespike(started at 59%)
k9 then dies for going too low with no jump while VoiD hovered over him at 97%

Average percent the opponent died at: 126%
Average percent the opponent was hit at before they died: 112%

Conclusion and notes:
  • Most people probably think she sucks at killing because they only look at the percent the opponent's at, completely ignoring the fact that she's been ledgetrapping them for 30 seconds straight. When you have the best neutral and the most oppressive anti-neutral reset ledge kit in the game, you constantly get FREE damage that makes you miss your kill setup windows. It is generally the Sheik player's fault if the opponent lives past 140.
  • The only characters Sheik legitimately cannot kill out of neutral in a last stock last hit situation WITHOUT needles and a minor risk are :4bayonetta::4lucario::4mario:. With needles she forces every character in the game bar Luma-less :rosalina:and tree-less :4villagerf: to the ledge for free with two presses of a button, where she then immediately ledgetraps or edgeguards then kills you.
  • The characters with the best survivability when looking at how easy/hard they are to ledgetrap, combo, and edgeguard are: :4bowser::4zss::4wario::4mario:
  • If you hold the ledge too long and the Sheik dtilts you anywhere between 70 and 130%, you will die
  • Unless you have an absolutely insane OoS option, spaced Ftilt is safe on block. Walking/crawling and throwing out ftilts, jabs(which confirms into boost grab, fsmash, ftilt and tipper dtilt), and dtilts until one hits around 125 is a strategy no character besides :4bayonetta: can punish you for. You see this utilized flawlessly in this set:
Stop making up flaws this character doesn't have in an effort to downplay how stupid she is. I'm honestly tired of hearing it.
The "Sheik can't kill" meme needs to stop.
 
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Luco

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Not only is the diddy MU fine, but losing to 1 character doesn't mean you're not top 5 lol

M2 only clearly loses to bayo. Even if he lost to diddy (possible but since top m2's learned the mu it's considered even except by aba) those are most likely top 1/2 characters that boast the most winning/even mus in the game, including the other top 5.
Aba's known for some interesting MU opinions. There was a time he felt Pit v Mewtwo was a 7:3 MU in Pit's favour (no doubt because of Earth).

I'm pretty sure in terms of practice / results Aba is like 0-6 against all of the relevant Diddy's and hasn't won that MU in a very long time. I'm not too sure if we have any reason yet to believe the M2 / Diddy MU is anything but really, really crippling for M2's solo viability. And if that's the case, there is real justification for Mewtwo not being top 5. In my opinion while characters such as Bayo, Diddy, Sheik, Fox, Sonic and even maybe Mario/Rosa running around Mewtwo has a lot of competition for a top 5 position.
 
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~ Gheb ~

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Ho, pre-patch ZSS had a matchup against Diddy that's as bad, possibly even worse, than M2's Diddy matchup is now. That did not prevent her from being an undisputed top 3 character. And if you're one of the increasing amount of people that question Diddy's place among the top 3 then it'd definitely make sense to just see it as not that big a deal.

Diddy Kong is DEFINITELY not the best. Although he as a good neutral, his recovery is to easy to intercept. He has a losing matchup against Rosalina, Olimar, Mega Man, Sheik, maybe Fox, Marth and Lucina
Rosalina and Fox have enough results in top level play to confirm that Diddy does not lose these matchups.
Marth and Lucina are names you've pulled out of your ass ... there's nothing that suggests that Diddy loses.
Olimar is a maybe, there's still not really such a thing as anti-Olimar metagame so I still think it's up in the air.
Sheik I'd personally agree with but you'd have to argue against results that are, once again, even.

I don't think Diddy is the best either but if he beats M2, Bayonetta and ZSS while not losing to any of the other top tiers he's still a strong contender. Olimar and Mega Man are not characters you can just pick up as a secondary to deal with Diddy so I feel like the threat of these two characters is a bit overstated.

I also don't have much confidence in Sheik for similar (but different) reasons. I think they [Diddy and Sheik] both just narrowly miss top 3.
Your top 3 would be Bayonetta, Mewtwo and Mario [not necessarily in order], right?

Gheb's list would be more accurate ordered imo lol
See, that's where I'm not even semi-confident anymore. Having Sonic, who solo-won Umebura SAT in such a convincing fashion and who may not have any losing matchup at all [worth pointing out that both SM and San lost to a Sonic player at TBH6 so he now has two wins against the character he had the worst record against], at a mere 8th just seems not acceptable in any way to me. Mario has two major tournament wins with two different players and so does Rosalina. That means you somehow have to determine who is better. Even if you found an order for them you'd have to somehow fit in Fox who actually has the most consistent results - and why would you place a character that's never been lower than 5th on Das Koopa's rankings as low as 8th?

No matter in which way you order those 4 characters in particular, it just aways seems wrong to me.

:059:
 

FamilyTeam

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He has a losing matchup against Rosalina, Olimar, Mega Man, Sheik, maybe Fox, Marth and Lucina
Well, Marcina is debatable. People have been discussing the possibility of this matchup turning Even later (I think we had a few posts in this thread regarding that), but I doubt that it would ever somehow turn into an advantage. The very way Diddy exists just isn't gonna let them win this, at best they'll manage to survive this MU, I think.
 

DunnoBro

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I hope people don't think marcina beats diddy just because of Nairo. The MU is just hard for ZSS due to her SH based neutral being shut down by banana.

Fun Note: M2k swore up and down Marth went even or even beat pre-patch diddy after a weekend with Mr. E.
 
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FamilyTeam

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New I hope people don't think marcina beats diddy just because of Nairo. The MU is just hard for ZSS due to her SH based neutral being shut down by banana.
Yeah. Again, at most, after that match, I could see why that matchup could be even, but I am sure it's never gonna be positive for us.
 

TurboLink

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I don't see how any of this equates to him having a decent anti camp game... You can throw bombs, pellets, boomarangs, various charge shots, needles, lasers, etc all you want at Diddy and hes going to have a hard time dealing with it. Sheik on the other hand can just throw a single needle and stop you from throwing anything out or multiple needles and get a kill confirm off it from halfway across the stage
A 27 frame boomerang and bombs that can be caught aren't going to hold a competent Diddy back forever.
 

DunnoBro

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Only projectiles with inherent long-distance ground covering options like pellets and needles can effectively combat banana.

Roll, Powershield, even regular shield are too powerful options for laggy projectiles to combat on their own. Especially with banana in hand, along with a command grab flip kick.
 

Frihetsanka

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Some of my thoughts on top 5 candidates:

Sheik is an obvious candidate, as is Diddy Kong. Both have incredibly strong results and really powerful tools and MU spreads overall.

Sonic is, I think, underrated by many. Part of the reason is that he lacks a top 10 player representing him. I still think he's strong enough and his MU chart good enough to warrant top 5.

Bayonetta has been hyped recently, and I think top 5 is warranted for her.

This leaves 1 spot on top 5. Cloud has the overall results, a really good MU chart, and some really, really powerful tools, but he also has a somewhat exploitable recovery. His top level results are also somewhat lacking. Rosalina & Luma also has a really good MU chart overall, but she's rather weak to Meta Knight, and if people play against Luma correctly she falls off a bit. Mario has some really great top level results, but I think the competition for top 5 is a bit too much for him. Same with Zero Suit Samus and Mewtwo. Fox is really good as well, but I don't think top 5. Ryu doesn't have a shot right now, his meta is too underdeveloped.

So, top 5: Sheik, Bayonetta, Sonic, Diddy Kong, and one of the following: Cloud or Rosalina & Luma. I'm really not sure about the 5th spot though.
 

HoSmash4

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I think the main difference with pre patch ZSS was that her punish game was quite frankly silly, on top of her silly disadvantage that Mewtwo doesn't have either. With that punish game, No matchup was that bad for ZSS. In terms of record was pre patch ZSS ever as bad as Mewtwo vs Diddy? Nairo had trouble vs many Diddys like MVD but he still 2-0'd Zeros Diddy in sets at MLG and Mewtwo hasn't come close to that achievement.

Mewtwo is of course a very good character but his record vs Diddys (1 win vs Mvd and Anti's Diddy and a lot of losses) is really troubling because Diddy is an extremely common character by round 2 pools.

Personal characters I feel Mewtwo may lose to: :4bayonetta::4cloud::4diddy::4pikachu::4ryu::4corrin:

My top 4 is: :4sheik::4diddy::4bayonetta:
Rest of top tiers: :4fox::4cloud::4zss::4sonic::rosalina::4mario::4mewtwo:

Quite simply I feel that the first 3 have the least exploitable weaknesses compared to the other 7. (Fox/Cloud/Rosa disadvantage; ZSS commital grab/no rising aerials; mario range;sonic lack of direct shield pressure/exploitable landings; mewtwo fastest ground move FRAME 6/hurtbox/weight)
 
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Rizen

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On the topic of :4diddy: vs :4link:; Diddy wins with a small advantage but Link has good tools to fight Diddy's neutral. Bombs eat bananas and will be planted on the ground after bouncing off shields (unlike TL's bombs). Bomb planting can be done with Zair and stops Diddy's ground rushes. Boomerang has a +1 frame advantage on shield drop. Everything eats peanuts. Projectiles stop Diddy's command grab. Link has better reach than Diddy so his Fair isn't as scary to us. Link's N/F/B/Zairs all have a frame advantage on shield drops and 12 or less frames of landing lag.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GaDXAPQJlz0AiIYSSOWFwy_dg04Rrq4a-YF9-VDOhZI/edit#gid=0
Link is good at gimping Diddy because he can cover 2 (or more) places at once easily with boomerang and his sword.

Diddy wins because his CQC is obviously stronger once he gets in and his kill confirms are fantastic with Dtilt. Diddy is generally faster, more agile and has good damage from chains/combos/grabs to keep up with having to get in.

Most top players also think Diddy/Link is +1/-1.
 

DunnoBro

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I don't think Ryu's meta is underdeveloped at all. He's overall one of the simpler characters, aside from inputs perhaps the simplest good character.

Sonic I think is in the same boat as Sheik and to a lesser extent pika. Just, all kinds of safe and options out the wazoo. He can be successful aggressively, patiently, or even pure anti-meta as seen with KEN.

However, his less oppressive neutral lends to more losing matchups and situations than sheik. (With more reward, mind you.) His ledge trapping isn't the greatest and his disadvantage scales from "nearly untouchable" to "garbage" depending on the matchup.

Certainly a candidate for top 5, but his inability to "just kill" like most DLC/Diddy lends himself to being somewhat easy to mount a comeback against. And honestly this is the fatal flaw for all this allegedly godlike "safe" characters that lack easy kills with that safeness.
 
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Y2Kay

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Mewtwo players honestly have a very toxic mind set about the Diddy match up.

You'd be surprised by how many of them think the match up is unwinnable.

:150:
 

Ghostbone

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Mewtwo players honestly have a very toxic mind set about the Diddy match up.

You'd be surprised by how many of them think the match up is unwinnable.

:150:
The matchup is actually unwinnable though

Results don't support anything else
 
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Vyrnx

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Diddy's recovery isn't that bad. The way ZeRo does it, holding charge out horizontally from the ledge and then reacting to edge guard attempts, has kept him safe from almost all edge guard attempts ever since he started doing it. If Diddy has a drop off, it won't be because he struggles to kill and I don't think it will be because everyone is edge guarding him. Diddy hasn't dropped off, and probably never really will. People have been saying for most of the game's existence that players will eventually start edge guarding Diddy, and we're really seeing less of Diddy getting gimped.
 
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Y2Kay

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The matchup is actually unwinnable though

Results don't support anything else
But most of those sets are Abadango, and I have gone in depth multiple times already as to why he keeps losing. He could be doing so much better, but he has shown little adaptation in the match up, and I am starting to think he never will.

:150:
 

Zelder

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May as well put insomnia to good use.
VoiD's kill percents in available VODs for both Abadango Saga and MSM 67
vs Nairo :4zss: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbmQS6vnJvg

Battlefield:
149% after needles to BF(started at 134%)

Smashville:
123% after fsmash punish(started at 109%)

Smashville:
155% after strong nair ledgetrap(started at 147%)
127% after uair>drag down dsmash(started at 114%)

Dreamland:
128% after Nair>Bouncing Fish(started at 112%)
135% after raw Uair(started at 130%)

Duck Hunt:
184% after Bair ledgetrap(started at 177%)

vs Elegant :4luigi:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXBTvlVucyc
Smashville:
110% after Ftilt>Vanish(started at 93%)

Final Destination:
151% after Ftilt>Bouncing Fish(started at 134%)

vs Falln:rosalina: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEtmX8r8qG8
Final Destination:
161% after double kick Bouncing Fish(started at 138%)
192% after extended edgeguard sequence(last hit at 185%, ledgetrap/edgeguard started at 116% until he died to a Luma dair while Falln was at at 161%. Falln spent the entire stock after 70% on the ledge)

Duck Hunt:
128% after Fair edgeguard(started at 123%)

Battlefield:
213% after a grenade(started at 198%)
114% after Bouncing Fish stagespike(started at 102%)

Dream Land:
128% after Usmash (started at 112%)
104% after tipper dtilt>Usmash (started at 83%)

vs SlowJoe :4fox: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsNwcJEasRs
Final Destination:
91% after rising Fair>Bouncing Fish to close out a ledge trap(started at 75%)
131% after Fthrow>Uair(started at 113%)

Town and City:
65% after rising Fair strings>Bouncing Fish(started at 37%)
97% after Nair>Needles>Ftilt>Usmash(started at 63%)

vs k9sBruce:4diddy: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkgzbd8OPoQ
Smashville:
131% after Ftilt>Vanish(started at 114%)

Final Destination:
132% after Usmash(started at 117%)

vs k9sBruce :4diddy: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=np5SBMFzVhc
Smashville:
132% after Nair>Fsmash(started at 114%)
k9 then SDs around 148% so I won't count that.

Town and City:
103% after Ftilt>Usmash(started at 83%)
68% after needle edgeguard(started at 65%)

Town and City:
66% after Bair stagespike(started at 59%)
k9 then dies for going too low with no jump while VoiD hovered over him at 97%

Average percent the opponent died at: 126%
Average percent the opponent was hit at before they died: 112%

Conclusion and notes:
  • Most people probably think she sucks at killing because they only look at the percent the opponent's at, completely ignoring the fact that she's been ledgetrapping them for 30 seconds straight. When you have the best neutral and the most oppressive anti-neutral reset ledge kit in the game, you constantly get FREE damage that makes you miss your kill setup windows. It is generally the Sheik player's fault if the opponent lives past 140.
  • The only characters Sheik legitimately cannot kill out of neutral in a last stock last hit situation WITHOUT needles and a minor risk are :4bayonetta::4lucario::4mario:. With needles she forces every character in the game bar Luma-less :rosalina:and tree-less :4villagerf: to the ledge for free with two presses of a button, where she then immediately ledgetraps or edgeguards then kills you.
  • The characters with the best survivability when looking at how easy/hard they are to ledgetrap, combo, and edgeguard are: :4bowser::4zss::4wario::4mario:
  • If you hold the ledge too long and the Sheik dtilts you anywhere between 70 and 130%, you will die
  • Unless you have an absolutely insane OoS option, spaced Ftilt is safe on block. Walking/crawling and throwing out ftilts, jabs(which confirms into boost grab, fsmash, ftilt and tipper dtilt), and dtilts until one hits around 125 is a strategy no character besides :4bayonetta: can punish you for. You see this utilized flawlessly in this set:
Stop making up flaws this character doesn't have in an effort to downplay how stupid she is. I'm honestly tired of hearing it.
The "Sheik can't kill" meme needs to stop.
This is extremely good data gathering, but I don't know if percents tell the whole story. Wouldn't things like who got the kill first, how long it took to rack them to that percent, how much rage was generated (and whether the opponent was able to do anything with that rage), and the amount of time between Sheik taking you to kill percent and then actually pushing you off the stage also be important for this discussion (and how much damage she took in between)? In my mind, the real discussion has never been "Sheik is bad at killing", it's more "Sheik has to put you at high percent to finish you off, she's incredibly light, and rage is an ever present stressor even for the best Sheik"

Still, very good analysis.
 
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Ghostbone

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But most of those sets are Abadango, and I have gone in depth multiple times already as to why he keeps losing. He could be doing so much better, but he has shown little adaptation in the match up, and I am starting to think he never will.

:150:
Aight, then you go fight Zinoto and ZeRo and show how the matchup should be played lol
 

Laken64

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Rage bs not included, I think :4diddy: is going to have more trouble killing than :4sheik:as we move forward.
Just curious, but would you add :4mario: to that list? Though it isn't really seen as much as a problem to many people :4mario:'s Upsmash and most of his moves need reads in order to bag a kill unlike :4sheik:. if the meta gets more defensive I can see it becoming more of a problem in certain MUs, one example being the:4greninja: if players start incorporating more movement like Y2Kay Y2Kay has been saying. This can also apply to :4sheik: with needle camping, :4fox: mobility and laser camping and maybe :4bayonetta: BA camping with her tilts and other attacks.

Basically if the meta gets more defensive :4mario: will start to slowly but surely fall imo.
 

|RK|

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Mewtwo players honestly have a very toxic mind set about the Diddy match up.

You'd be surprised by how many of them think the match up is unwinnable.

:150:
I've heard some people saying camping more would help... and I recall ZeRo struggling against Blue a little bit when he first came back, in part due to Shadow Ball.

What do you think is the proper way to play that MU?
 

BSP

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Hey man, maybe I will ◥θ┴~◤

:150:
Forum arguing / explanation only gets you so far. You have to go out and beat people for your words to truly have merit.

I wouldn't be surprised if you're right though. Aba plays Pac-Man vs Luigi in a questionable manner as well.
 

Y2Kay

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Shadow Ball is easily the best move to use against Diddy. It eat straights through and hits Diddy when half way charged, and clanks when not charged. Mewtwo should never be committing to too much when Diddy has the banana, and nor should he have to. LoF Blue is probably the best at the match up (though I haven't seen WaDi fight Diddy yet).

Abadango's problem is that he takes too many risks when Diddy has the banana, doesn't bait Diddies into giving up the banana on his own terms, and doesn't punish monkey flips at all.

:150:
 

DunnoBro

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I mean Zero has adapted and learnt a lot more about the matchup, I haven't seen anti Diddy tech/options from many Mewtwos
Confusion in neutral covers roll, dash shield, dtilt/fair(somewhat), and of course banana toss. It mainly discourages the cross-up and boxing diddy does that makes the mu seem hard. Wadi doesn't mind the MU and is notably the only one I see use this option. (Though I did see Rich using it in friendlies at Xanadu vs Diddy's)

Regardless, with m2's vastly expansive kit there's nothing to suggest the MU won't get easier over time. Top tier MUs often seem worse before the meta develops.

This just seems like another "Diddy beats cloud" mentality because the diddy players are just better.

Basically if the meta gets more defensive :4mario: will start to slowly but surely fall imo.
Fludd + ledge traps discourages being overly defensive in most MUs.

The sonic MU is only so bad because he can react to being fludded by releasing spindsh to avoid getting pushed back.

Mario's main issue with the changing meta is that he (like the majority of the cast) lose to DLC
 
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~ Gheb ~

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He has been considered their 3rd best Toon Link for a while. He's stepped it up though and now it's pretty much a tie between him, Sigma and Hayato.

:059:
 

NairWizard

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What way is that?
Abusing Mario's lack of frontal coverage outside of jab by spacing b-airs.

ZeRo, with Diddy, also plays this matchup correctly now by abusing Mario's inferior horizontal range.

In general, playing the Mario matchup correctly involves mastery of horizontal spacing. Some characters, such as Marth or Rosalina, naturally play the horizontal spacing game in all of their matchups, which makes the Mario matchup relatively easier for players of those characters, but other characters, like Diddy and Fox, don't play that game usually, so players of these characters frequently end up playing the Mario matchup incorrectly.

NAKAT's an exception to the rule. For Fox, he's the only exception.

Your top 3 would be Bayonetta, Mewtwo and Mario [not necessarily in order], right?
Bayonetta's numbers are too strong for me to pick anyone else as #1. In the hands of a player like Nairo dedicating solo time to her, she would easily be winning every tournament. Salem is great, don't get me wrong, but he is now and has always been a somewhat inconsistent player.

In addition to sporting great tournament records against Diddy, Sheik, Bayonetta, and Fox, Mario has been shown to be able to overpower the matchups in which he supposedly struggles (Ally beating Dabuz, Abadango, and Marss) with his numbers. I have him as #2.

I would probably pick Sonic for #3 before I would pick Mewtwo. Sonic's similar to Sheik in that he doesn't really seem to lose any matchup if he plays it correctly, but he seems to require such a vast array of knowledge to get to that level that a single Sonic may never exhibit that in tournament consistently. That's why I would have him as #3 instead of higher. But I think he's better than Mewtwo because Sonic at his best (when Komorikiri takes a tournament or KEN wrecks everyone) is way more impressive a beast than Mewtwo at his best.

Mewtwo, Diddy, and Sheik are the next 3 for me, but I have a harder time ordering it.

Sheik's almost the same as Sonic in some ways, but Sheik is much easier to beat with a few reads in neutral, something I feel that people heavily underestimate when talking about the character. Sonic takes more damage in disadvantage but also weighs more and has more raw kill power than Sheik. Because you can make a similar argument for both Sonic and Sheik ("amazing at their best, but hard for one player to be consistently amazing with"), I'd be comfortable with placing her as #4.

Diddy's MU spread, much like Rosalina's, used to be quite polarizing and oppressive, but has been toned down a bit by meta shifts. He used to shut down most high- or mid-tier characters' gameplans with simple options like f-air and d-tilt--but now characters like Marth and Corrin have developed counterplay to Diddy's options in neutral (e.g., Cosmos' win against Zinoto, Nairo busting out the Lucina, Mr. E doing well vs. ZeRo although the circumstances of that tournament are questionable). I think Mewtwo will take much the same path as Diddy in that regard.

Thus either he or Mewtwo round out my top 5.
 
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FeelMeUp

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I never understood why people said Sheik is hard to be consistent with even though the two Sheiks almost always get top 8. I mean, hell, the most consistent player in the world is a Sheik main.
 
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NotLiquid

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After TBH6 I can believe that Sonic is Top 5 at minimum. Komo put on an incredible display in Top 8 using him and put up an admirable fight against ANTi and ZeRo. It definitely feels like this is a character Japan is leading the charge with though, I don't know if that's why he occasionally seems to be more subdued than a lot of other popular top 5 picks.

Despite falling just short of top 8 (what was that I said a few pages about my prediction looking kinda silly) Bayonetta doesn't feel like she has anywhere to go but up. Salem was highly inconsistent (as demonstrated by the numerous matches he had against Kame this weekend) but when he got into the groove, he was straight up eviscerating. Some of the SDI reads were tremendous and I was surprised even Mr R tried bringing her out once, even if I think it highlights that Rosalina is probably her most questionable matchup as of present.
 
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