Nothing gets this thread more active than ****ting on characters, lol
In regards to this
I tend to look towards results because I think common conceptions of MUs are very nebulous and short sighted. How often did we hear "Rosa gets shafted by Cloud,"? How often did we hear "Pikachu has a great MU spread"?
We make these MU spreads, and they are often colored by common perceptions. Majority opinion can sometimes lead to great solutions but it can often lead to massive groupthink as well.
If Cloud's MU spread is as good as in reality as it is in theory, then we should be seeing that reflected in his results. As is, we only see Cloud dominating at the low-mid level (highlighted in the peewee tournament Nintendo threw last week).
Going back to what I wrote here because even though it's right in technicality it isn't the complete picture it should have been.
Raw results are our observable data, and collected directly from tournament outcomes. It can never be wrong.
However, our assumptions based off of that data can be very wrong. For example, early Smash 4 had
as big tyrants, and we thought of them as top tier characters. In actuality, we just didn't know enough about the game. The same holds true for
.
It is correct to say that X character wins more tournaments than Y.
However, we must be careful in then taking that statement and making it into "X character is better than Y".
Because we can not set up a scenario where 58 top level players of equal skill can go at each other infinitely without fatiguing, we end up with tournament data that has a ton of extraneous variables:
1. Representation (Who showed vs who didn't)
2. Brackets (Who did you have to play?)
3. Out of game factors (Fatigue, family/relationship/personal stress, etc.)
4. Talent (How good is X vs the competition)
5. Rulesets (Miis, 2 vs 3 stock, 3 starter vs 5 starter, etc.)
and so on.
This all has to be considered when trying to figure out relative character placements and MUs.
As such, really think about the metrics and processes done to make sure that we are dealing with these variables properly.
Das Koopa
does a good job in regards to #1,2, and especially 4 (Large sample size+weighing the individual tournaments), but figuring out the rest remains a challenge.
From experiences against other characters, we start creating our theory (MU charts, possible options that can be used, etc.). This is useful as it allows us to predict things that may take awhile to happen (ie the rise of
after buffs). However, it is important to note that our theory might not hold, or even that theory may only hold for a certain point in time. There was a time in the world that people believed economic prosperity = holdings of gold. Can you imagine that today?
As we learn more about Smash 4, and
mains learn to use things other than
and
, our theories and results should change. Remember, if a theory doesn't match the results, it becomes a bad theory. Much like the theory of trickle-down economics, repudiate bad ideas. They are not helpful in our understanding of Smash. Reflect on what we got wrong and how to think things through in the future.
TL'DR: Rambled a bit, but in general just be careful in holding to tightly to both results and theory. Both can only paint incomplete pictures.
In other news, what has happened with
recently? Haven't seen him since San's performance at GOML.
PS: Don't take that extra shot of tequila, not worth it