You didn't mention his recovery. Obviously worst in game and may not even warrent mentioning as it is an assumably large weakness on all accounts. But it's actually SO bad it always deserves the note when listing weaknesses. This character will never be high tier with his recovery. He doesn't have the air speed or vertical recovery like Cloud either to not be gimped. As people play more and more lame, he will get more walled out. He can be counterpicked harder than anyone else in the game. Oh they picked Duck Hunt as a counterpick? You might as well no contest and go to game 3. Granted he does well on FD and benefits from For Glory being FD only, other projectile characters I feel can abuse it even more. Mac does have nice techs and options out of a Perfect shield though. He could be lower mid. But not much more.
You are overrating his recovery weakness, a lot of characters still have to take a guess in order to edgeguard Mac.
Yes, his recovery moves suck in term of distance, he also does not have a great air speed and good aerials to cover himself (basically the only reason why Cloud recovery does not look as bad overall) BUT he can mix up his recovery by recovering high or "medium" with sideB, using upB early, going low and try to clip the opponent standing on the ledge, using his walljump, using sideB from under the stage, counter, etc
As I said, a lot of characters do not have attacks to cover all his options and have to commit to a guess (granted, the Mac can die by guessing wrong, but it should not happen frequently, just look at some high level Mac footage and see for yourself)
Also, you are overrating (again) his weakness to being countepicked.
Mac actually does fine on most stages, and FD isn't even Mac's best stage. His best stage is actually pretty matchup dependent, usually it's town&city, but FD and BF are pretty solid too (even FD can also be a BAD stage for Mac, again, it depends on the matchup)
The only stage that give Mac something to worry are Smashville, Duckhunt and Dreamland, but none of those are even close to an insta-loss situation and again, it depends on the matchup.
If you choose something like DH with the intent of camping him till the timeout you have things to consider:
- if you can't get a lead you can't camp Little Mac
-- and with Mac's great neutral game and dammage output it can be no easy task
- if you have good defensive options
-- if you have ass mobility or bad OOS options you can't do much to a Mac pressuring from below and will eventually lose your lead
- if you have good ways to pressure from below yourself
-- you are not the only one who can camp on the tree, Mac has a great f3 upB oos that can kill you relatively early and he can also combo into it from his jab, leading to early kills
DL is a "bad BF" but again, it's not that terrible (his usmash actually still reaches the bottom platforms but you have to be really precise, so Mac can still shark from below)
SV is probably his overall worst stage but you should ban it straight away so you don't have to play on it
Anyway, about Mac.
I think he is a character, who is the most effected by what stage he is fighting on.
yes
I know someone pointed it out already, but almost all stages cause Mac to be easily camped and baited out.
it depends, but usually: no
Stages can turn a winning MU for Mac, into a losing MU. Especially with characters who have projectiles.
actually, Mac would rather go on platform stages against some projectile users than FD
I mean, every opponent Mac faces, does better then him on all stages.
no
(Final Destination/Omegas are probably his only good stage.)
no
Little Mac's ground game might be the best if he had an actual aerial game to complement it, but as things are he can be pretty predictable plus you can get some breathing room whenever you want if there are any high platforms. I'm more scared of Ryu and Diddy on the ground because they have good aerials to mix it up with (the latter's banana alone creates a better ground game than probably more than half the cast). Shield is decent against Mac as well provided you always retreat or run away for a while after shielding something heavy, which you can quite easily do on most stages.
I don't actually disagree with what you posted but I still want to point out a few things
"shielding something heavy", actually, all of Mac's smashes (bar a properly spaced down angled fsmash) are pretty unsafe on shield, you should try to punish him if possible, but yes, as you said Mac hits really hard and you have to be wary in order to not get your shield broken
also, while it's true that Mac options while grounded are extremely limited I wouldn't call them "predictable", Mac gets a lot of mileage by being creative with his frametraps and mobility -- if a Mac walks towards you and uses his dtilt/dafsmash/jab on your shield you now have to guess what to do and quickly because Mac probably will catch you while shield dropping and punish you (and this is where his baddish grab becomes useful as a mixup tool)
but anyway
I agree that Mac has no place in high tier, I personally feel like he belongs in the ever so muddy mid tier