smash isnt canon, it can be modified how they want. Mario needs a fire flower before using a fireball. Adult Link in Melee shouldnt be using boomerangs.
That thing about an Awakening character doesnt really make sense. He consults IS for FE related stuff. With that type of attitude, that should apply to any FE newcomer.
Well, relative to an FE newcomer from the previous generation in the case of Roy. I think the only thing Roy has going for him is popularity, but there is no way for Sakurai to objectively measure that, so I'm not sure how much that could affect him. I dont know of any remake in development, and if were to be released, it would be doubtful it would be released prior to SSB4. In terms of uniqueness, he doesnt stand above other newcomers in any major way, not to say he cant be unique, but its not really something that works in his favor as opposed to someone like Robin. Within the FE fanbase, his popularity is lower internationally due to the fact his game was never released in the US, so only a small fraction of the US FE fanbase have ever played his game. His status as a member of the forbidden 7 would not aid him against any character created after Brawl.
I wouldnt say he has no chance, but Smashboards is quite the bubble, and the hardcore of the hardcore smashers, so its not really reflective of the overall Smash fanbase. He has a very low chance relative to the Awakening reps I would say. He's a smart choice for DLC characters though, and I think that he has a good chance if there are DLC characters.
There should be room for the chance of no rep.