Whose Mafia Is it Anyway - Game Over!

[#HBC | Gorf]

i promise the rest of these wont be post by post (not tryna clog the thread) but ill probably go like 1 - 3 pgs per post in case someone wants to talk to me about it in real time.

im gonna be really sad if youre scum #HBC | marshy because your start to eod1 is hella nice looking back

 

[Lore]

this is interesting looking back. i definitely didnt agree with those having a stark confidence on the oracle claim being a lie. even now i think its worth considering the possibility that its true. but i do definitely think its believable that a townie thats been playing bad (which frozen clearly thinks lore has) could have that sort of stark confidence.

ryker has stark confidence in it too so im curious how frozen will treat ryker later regarding it

Looking back at this post from FF, I'm also noticing that it's super open. He spends most of the paragraph talking about how bad it is but then goes "it could totally be townie or scum, btw."

When combined with his lack of a similar sentiment to Ryker, it feels weird.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Oh my god, **** off. Imagine if you were a town PR and you have people yelling at you and NOT listening to you. I don't know why the **** you're townread when all you do is posture yourself any chance you get.

can you give me an updated read on fandangox?

 

[KevinM]

I

are yall just not voting cuz youre resigned to soup?

took fandango off cuz i assume he is

I’m rereading before I resign a vote because him dying seems to make everyone think I’ll just tonight which is pretty feelsbadman

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

If you meatheads decide the best course of action is to repeat the same day over by lynching me at this rate you only have yourselves to blame when I flip exactly what I say I am.

I've pretty much absolved the fact Ryker/Marshy are going to tunnel me and then one of them will say 'he was playing bad' to lick their own wounds.

#HBC | Ryker and #HBC | marshy liking this post like the savages they are lmfao

 

[KevinM]

Page 10 of the reread going to just throw **** out there and see where my heads at.

Orange dying looks ****ing terrible for Ran

I think right now I could see Lore/Ran being a thing if that’s a thing your last scum is Pythag/Fandingo/Tom.

God all of Rans interactions in the first ten pages are bad though.

Same honestly goes for Fandingo, he isn’t committing to a single read but he’s also pressuring Soup for a read least.

If we default to Soup/Lore today I think it looks something like

Soup
Marshy
Gorf

Lore
Ran
Hard to Call

I don’t know what to think of FF but what he’s uncomfortable of in those first few pages especially the WIFOM gorf posts rings true with what I didn’t like. I hate his reads list though it rings so safe


Ryker laying back is always a null tell for me because he plays the game at his own pace no matter what the state of the game is but I will say the more I look at his initial reaction of the almost mislynch the more I dislike it... but that doesn’t necessarily ring as bad to me.

For what it’s worth I think the most important interactions driven by who we know is town at this point:

Kary being suspicious of Tom and Marshy
FF jumping suspiciously quick on the Orange Wagon
Literally all of Ran

Next ten pages I’m reading now I’ll see if I feel differently about the web I’ve got here

 

[Pythag]

There is only one corner of the universe you can be certain of improving, and that's your own self. - Aldous Huxley

Spoiler

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Before bed, I'll just make a summary of my argument:

If he had chosen me, he would have been the lynch target today instantly. By choosing a lower priority target, he raises his chances of living "to get another result" while simultaneously hoping that I'll get mislynched instead.

If he was a town oracle, he would have seen the value of targeting me, the literal only other wagon focus left alive outside of himself. This is especially true when you consider that if he was a PR, he would be target #1 for scum. Even knowing that they might not risk a protect role etc, he should still have chosen me in case he died.

But nope, he chose a self-serving target. I also assume he began his "Lore is probably town guys, so is Spak" push yesterDay for the same motive: earning points with town by defending town players who might get flipped. His swap to me as a wagon shows how thinly veiled his self-serving attitude was.


And that's the summary, worded best I can. I need sleep. Good night.

for clarity, are you saying scum!soup is faking a kevin oracle so that he could fight to live another Day to "get another result" for toMorrow, etc etc?

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Spoiler

pythag you have been a blessing to play with

 

[KevinM]

Adding in a quick note after reading Soups claim that if you guys ever want me back for a fun get together game that we lock the door the moment he tries to walk in JFC.

 

[Lore]

Spoiler

Can't see the image while at work, sadly. I'm looking forward to loading it later.

for clarity, are you saying scum!soup is faking a kevin oracle so that he could fight to live another Day to "get another result" for toMorrow, etc etc?

This is exactly it, yes. His target selection was entirely self serving, and he practically admitted so himself.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

This is exactly it, yes. His target selection was entirely self serving, and he practically admitted so himself.

unless im hella trippin soup can only be attached to one person at a time, and he cant change his latch unless they die. how does this buy him time?

 

[Lore]

unless im hella trippin soup can only be attached to one person at a time, and he cant change his latch unless they die. how does this buy him time?

Ah, didn't realize that. With that in mind, his target choice is even worse; he (assuming a hypothetical town!Soup) knew that he was likely to be killed or lynched. Why wouldn't he latch on to the other top lynch candidate, knowing that he was top of the chopping block as repeatedly said? It would help Town by confirming my alignment and allowing us to move on to more fruitful pastures.

Since he didn't pick me and instead picked a random other player, he can push for me to get lynched instead of himself. It was a survival tactic.

 

[Lore]

Like most of his posts responding to criticism of his target choice have literally been "yeah but what would I have gotten out of a Lore target?" He's focused entirely on self survival.

 

[Tom]

Wtf read the roles

 

[Pythag]

Ah, didn't realize that. With that in mind, his target choice is even worse; he (assuming a hypothetical town!Soup) knew that he was likely to be killed or lynched. Why wouldn't he latch on to the other top lynch candidate, knowing that he was top of the chopping block as repeatedly said? It would help Town by confirming my alignment and allowing us to move on to more fruitful pastures.

Since he didn't pick me and instead picked a random other player, he can push for me to get lynched instead of himself. It was a survival tactic.

I think this isn't as self servicing as you think. In fact, it might actually be pro town.

You and soup were literally the biggest topics all yesterDay.

Had there been some big discussion/agreement on who he should check, in this case Lore, what's stopping the mafia from just up and killing his oracle check (you)?
that wastes the oracle, and now we've got an even scummier looking oracle claim.

Yes he does protect himself with the rando kevin oracle, but it also makes the mafia sweat a little bit. If they just kill him, they don't know who he's on. and could reveal others. Heck, he could STILL be lying about this, just to try to get responses out of kevin and others.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Ah, didn't realize that. With that in mind, his target choice is even worse; he (assuming a hypothetical town!Soup) knew that he was likely to be killed or lynched. Why wouldn't he latch on to the other top lynch candidate, knowing that he was top of the chopping block as repeatedly said? It would help Town by confirming my alignment and allowing us to move on to more fruitful pastures.

Since he didn't pick me and instead picked a random other player, he can push for me to get lynched instead of himself. It was a survival tactic.

we can solve you. kevinm played in a way where solving him was gonna prove tough. so from town!soup pov, he latched onto him to give town a read on a super null player. and youre a townread of his.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

What abou the **** he said at me that was mad whack? He basically agrroed onto me for nothing. How did you read that? It might help me read you.

in short... i dont like it

 

[Pythag]

Fandangox How do your reads change if soup flips town?

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

done rereading eod1-present. gotta hit work but im feeling good about being refreshed for a full reread. may not finish tonight cuz i got work till 8 and work in the morning, but ill be sure to fully catch up when i come back home tomorrow.

in general, im feeling more and more fine resigning to a soup lynch by eod. all in all i can see both sides of the argument and hes null. if i HAD to give a direction, itd be the slightest leaning town, but i feel like theres a lot of which ways to go after his lynch (and if hes town, a clear on kevin). if theres anything that really strikes me that takes me away from this, id be open to it but its doubtful.

Look, there's only two votes on Lore right now and that's mine and Ryker's.


I disagree with a lynching an Oracle claim before they can feasibly make a target.

If this means Orange is the lynch by default I'm so okay with it.

If others want to load up a Lore wagon, now is the time.

8 hours remain.

I wonder how you came to thinking lore might be lynchbait

dont play coy man, anyone can SAY they want multiple lynches to signal consonance with prevailing group preference but when push comes to shove what you do with your vote under the gun can belie such posturing


your jump makes it sound like you were signalling for orange but really preferred another wagon and wanted to do what you could to tip the scales in that direction close to deadline. obviously it could also just be that you were truly ambivalent about the wagons and wanted to even them out and give each one you allegedly preferred a fighting chance. the way you went about it though came off to me as more likely to be the former than the latter hence my jab at you. I'm far from convinced this makes you scum but it pinged my radar, I wasn't going to just not comment on it

the problem lies in the fact that you neglect to acknowledge the difference in how it comes off from your original misunderstanding. I get this pov if tom put orange at l-1. But he didn’t. orange had momentum and it was not-soup, so he added a bit to a stronger not-soup wagon. Put orange at l-2. That’s a big difference from l-1. And then when he realized its worth at least trying to fight for the not-soup lynch you like more, he went and did it. Im curious why youre choosing to latch to this in this way.

hes a coinflip ima read into when i get some time. hes done a lot of argument/logical **** that i dont think is past his range as scum. speakin of which


#HBC | Gorf

whats your take on frozen?

I think I avoided depth on this earlier but now that im more adequately caught up:

Im pretty much null on ff right now. His eod read alright in terms of his take at the end of the gamestate and choosing orange, but theres something I don’t like about how he’s postured to take orange, and then turn to lore if soup flips town. The fact that his play (or lack thereof) has shown nothing to propose a different lynch toDay makes me wonder if hes content with a soup lynch and he goes for a town!lore lynch toMorrow, and boom you have three ml’s. But thatd require soup and lore to both be town, which is a tough sell. I resonate with what you said about the smell of scum yesterDay. But I could be wrong.

Anything you want to say about that specific Pythag post? You did say you wanted to push the slot Day 2 last phase.


Who else would your direction be for today. Aside from Lore and Soup, who else is in your radar?

At this juncture im getting a good look from eod1-current, and then imma do a full reread. But right now, I still saw play from his eod1 that gave me strong noobtown vibes (specifically his response to orange near the tail end of the Day really stood out to me). I also think it’s a stretch for him to exist with any of lore, soup, and possibly frozen. So im chillin for right now. If anything pings me on the full reread ill be sure to let you know

 

[Lore]

Wtf read the roles

I read it, just misunderstood it. I thought he picked an additional target each night he lived.

I think this isn't as self servicing as you think. In fact, it might actually be pro town.

You and soup were literally the biggest topics all yesterDay.

Had there been some big discussion/agreement on who he should check, in this case Lore, what's stopping the mafia from just up and killing his oracle check (you)?
that wastes the oracle, and now we've got an even scummier looking oracle claim.

Yes he does protect himself with the rando kevin oracle, but it also makes the mafia sweat a little bit. If they just kill him, they don't know who he's on. and could reveal others. Heck, he could STILL be lying about this, just to try to get responses out of kevin and others.

Considering the fact that the point of Oracleing me was to ascertain my alignment, my flip would let Town move further and put debates about me into the past. My death N1 would have helped Town, although obv I'd prefer to live.

In addition, I think that if Scum wanted to potentially avoid a protective role they would stay far away from me if I was said as the Oracle target. Not to mention how since I was wagoned yesterday I'm an easier mislynch.

I don't really see how clearing up two focused slots at once with Soup's flip is less beneficial than "making the mafia sweat." That's just wifom shenanigans.

we can solve you. kevinm played in a way where solving him was gonna prove tough. so from town!soup pov, he latched onto him to give town a read on a super null player. and youre a townread of his.

While true, the fact that I'm a wagon candidate even today means that I'm not "solved." Soup knew he had a strong, strong risk of death N1 if not D2 (assuming hypothetical town!Soup), so if he was town, why would he go for a complete unknown instead of a confirmation that would give huge insights into the state of the game?

These arguments from you and Pythag are also not addressing how he literally said he was looking for his own personal benefit when picking the target that he was going to say.

 

[Tom]

 

[Tom]

I like you too Gorf

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Gorf liked three different posts where I wanted FF to come play this phase.

He just wants me to push to lynch FF today so the man can go inactive and we can get two bingo slots at once.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

i cant tell if you were calling me out for something or if you liked the fact that i liked those posts by you. to be clear i dont expect most anyone to budge on soup, let alone you

 

[Tom]

Information wants to be free

 

[Tom]

Mostly I'm being cute

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

I'm sitting here waiting on FF, Tom, and KEvin to finish up here and then I'm going to be pushing to remove Soup again.

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

Also, RE: FF #HBC | Gorf

There's no world where I want to lynch FF without first getting a Soup scum flip.

 

[Pythag]

I don't really see how clearing up two focused slots at once with Soup's flip is less beneficial than "making the mafia sweat." That's just wifom shenanigans.

So here's how I'm thinking:

1.
soup claims oracle
town decides that soup should oracle you.
mafia kill you.
town learns nothing about soup. His claim is still just as dubious.

or

2.
soup claims oracle
doesn't tell anyone who he's seeing.
if mafia choose to eliminate soup, there's a chance that he's actually oracled a mafia, thus killing soup becomes something they can't do.


how I am understand your argument :

soup claims oracle
you want soup to seer you
that night, mafia kill someone else that night, or kill soup?
next day if soup isn't dead, we lynch soup, your towniness is reveal.
that night mafia kill you.


Unless this is what you're saying?

soup claims oracle
soup is actually scum
lynch soup.

not trying to be cute or cast shade. Trying to figure out where I'm missing you.


Lastly, you're right, I didn't look at his self servicing argument, but I think you're much more bothered about it than I am. I'm not sure if that is rightfully so or not.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

Also, RE: FF #HBC | Gorf

There's no world where I want to lynch FF without first getting a Soup scum flip.

idgaf about you vying to lynch ff without first getting a soup scum lynch

 

[Lore]

Pythag I'm about to eat, but the two possibilities you presented are either 1: town gets an absurdly relevant flip from my death or B: town gains nothing but Soup lives. That's the problem.

Tbh I now recall Soup making a salt-laden post where he said he might go against the "hive mind" and target specific people. I'll check later and see if Kary was on that list, but it doesn't change the game theory of the choice imo.

But if Kary was on that list, aren't you the main one bringing up that the Oracle stated target could have been killed? I don't recall anyone else bringing it up. Interesting.

 

[Lore]

Found the post.

I'm not oracling you. I've been ignored by the hivemind so they can kiss my ***. I'm oracling one of Kevin/Ryker/Tom, leaning on the first two.

I still stand by my statement that despite planning earlier to do this, his doing this was self serving.

The Kary bit was a dead end though, so nvm on that front.

 

[Pythag]

Pythag I'm about to eat, but the two possibilities you presented are either 1: town gets an absurdly relevant flip from my death or B: town gains nothing but Soup lives. That's the problem.

a flip is nice, but having people alive is nicer. I guess that's where I'm stuck.

 

[Lore]

a flip is nice, but having people alive is nicer. I guess that's where I'm stuck.

I'm a bit confused then, because unless we have a protect role and the protect got lucky, someone was dying either way. I'd rather it have been a relevant flip instead of a player who most people were reading as Town (Kary).

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

idgaf about you vying to lynch ff without first getting a soup scum lynch

I just don't have further to weigh in on your talk about FF and I want to. Most of my issues with the slot remain in the way he's treated Soup being in direct contrast with the way he's been in the thread.

He's certain Soup is town, but doesn't have the clarity to remember what was said on the last page. That's what bothers me about the slot and that bothers me a LOT less if Soup flips town.

 

[#HBC | Gorf]

well then itll be interesting when i say that his presence in the game bothers me more on a town!soup flip than a scum!soup flip now wont it

 

[Lore]

I just don't have further to weigh in on your talk about FF and I want to. Most of my issues with the slot remain in the way he's treated Soup being in direct contrast with the way he's been in the thread.

He's certain Soup is town, but doesn't have the clarity to remember what was said on the last page. That's what bothers me about the slot and that bothers me a LOT less if Soup flips town.

Why does that bother less if Soup is town? Wouldn't it bother you more instead?

 

[Fandangox]

At this juncture im getting a good look from eod1-current, and then imma do a full reread. But right now, I still saw play from his eod1 that gave me strong noobtown vibes (specifically his response to orange near the tail end of the Day really stood out to me). I also think it’s a stretch for him to exist with any of lore, soup, and possibly frozen. So im chillin for right now. If anything pings me on the full reread ill be sure to let you know

What do you think of his play this phase?

 

[Fandangox]

are yall just not voting cuz youre resigned to soup?

took fandango off cuz i assume he is

More or less, I could go for Lore if town wants that too, but Soup is my priority, Mostly not voting cause Soup got a lot of votes early on the phase and we still have time to figure things out.