We might be only getting the starting roster before release.

[Big-Cat]

Note this is excluding Sonic, Snake, and any other third party characters. Ever since the delay, we've had a decrease in the rate of character profiles being put up and this includes Veteran profiles.

So far, it's been three weeks since the last newcomer and exactly two months since the last veteran profile was put up. Before the delay, it was an average two weeks for every profile put up with the exception of Sonic.

Assuming that a three week gap is occurring, about 4 characters will have their profile put up by the time the Japanese release occurs. The likely ones for this treatment are Mr. Game and Watch (icon theory), Captain Falcon, The AC character, and the DS character.

This would keep every unlockable from Melee but G+W unlockable and Ness under the unlikely chance he's still in. This also gives us at least 27 characters for a starting roster.

Does anyone agree with this.

 

[thejbr12]

I've had that idea before, the idea of using average time between character announcements to determine how many starters there will be, IF they only announce starters (and Sonic and Snake). I do have 2 problems with your post though...

1. The average before the delay was NOT 2 weeks, it was more like 9 days. Remember that there were some weeks we got a character on Monday AND Friday of the same week. The longest span without a character had been 14 days, not the average.

2. Sakurai is unpredictable and erratic. He may announce EVERYTHING before the game comes out, or he may only announce 1 more character. Trends on the Dojo mean nothing because he's totally random. Heck, there's a chance this 3-week character delay is because he FORGOT to announce a character, haha.

At any rate, I have no idea about the final roster size, the number of starters/unlockables, or when who will be announced, and I don't think anyone else on the boards does either...

 

[Tony_]

Good op...you got the memo. =D

 

[Masque]

Hm...interesting thought. I considered that as well. If anything, we're guaranteed to see CF sooner or later. G&W is possible, if only so all of the Melee franchises are represented at least once.

It's interesting that you expect a DS / Touch Generations character--I can't imagine it happening. Then again, the theory is based upon the idea that an icon implies a character. I can't say for sure, mainly because I'm a firm supporter of the notion that there WILL be a playable AC character. Only time will tell, I suppose.

Nonetheless, interesting point. I agree that we will get the starting roster before release, although I can't say how the updates will be spread out. I also am unsure as to whether or not we'll see ANY secret characters before the release; Luigi is too obvious to bother hiding.

 

[KazenoZ]

2. Sakurai is unpredictable and erratic. He may announce EVERYTHING before the game comes out, or he may only announce 1 more character. Trends on the Dojo mean nothing because he's totally random. Heck, there's a chance this 3-week character delay is because he FORGOT to announce a character, haha.

I actually laughed at that =P So true.

Actually, a 23 character starter roster is quite enough already.
Though as I learned to know Sakurai, he won't make it to an obvious number, so both 23 and 25 won't be the character numbers, we should also remember that after the delay we still have a good 2 monthes(And 10 days) til the Japanese release, he won't possibly dump character updates for this long, so it can't be 24 either, if that's the case, I would dare to say that the roster would contain 26-27 characters as starters, without any more 3rd parties, that's quite alot, I know, but that's the only way I see right now.

 

[Magnacor]

I've had that idea before, the idea of using average time between character announcements to determine how many starters there will be, IF they only announce starters (and Sonic and Snake). I do have 2 problems with your post though...

1. The average before the delay was NOT 2 weeks, it was more like 9 days. Remember that there were some weeks we got a character on Monday AND Friday of the same week. The longest span without a character had been 14 days, not the average.

2. Sakurai is unpredictable and erratic. He may announce EVERYTHING before the game comes out, or he may only announce 1 more character. Trends on the Dojo mean nothing because he's totally random. Heck, there's a chance this 3-week character delay is because he FORGOT to announce a character, haha.

At any rate, I have no idea about the final roster size, the number of starters/unlockables, or when who will be announced, and I don't think anyone else on the boards does either...

Agreed. You hit the nail on the head there. Just because there hasn't been a character update in a whil people assume that this is the starting roster. I feel confident that this is not the starting roster and we have seen secret characters. Unless you are Sakurai, you cannot tell what Sakurai is going to do next so you might as well accept that this is not the roster.

 

[kunai_abuser]

^ Exactly!

 

[brawl1994]

i'm hoping sakuari only announces starters, if he announced all characters ,including unlockables, it would ruin the game

 

[Bassoonist]

I very much doubt this.

Sonic and Snake are unlockables, (yeah I know, you said excluding them. So what? They're still unlockable, sorry.) and Sakurai has said he wants to be the first to reveal the roster.

 

[Blubba_Pinecone]

Agreed... but Sakuri isn't random and erratic, he is a mastermind and we are all playing into his hands... this is what he wants us to think! Except me... I've seen his majestical plot... >.> lol just goofing.


But at any rate, as usual, this thread helps with nothing. But then again, it is a semi-interresting discussion.

 

[Deleted member]

Why would he unveil three Kirby characters if none were secret?

Anyway, hurry up with Captain Falcon, Sakurai. Gamefaqs grows restless...

 

[Darkurai]

Mr. Game and Watch (icon theory), Captain Falcon, The AC character, and the DS character.

The DS character obviously doesn't exist (what would it be? A stylus?). The DS Icon disproves the AC Character "Confirmation", as well as the Icon Theory, meaning Game and Watch is still in the air. The only character who has been confirmed by an icon is Falcon, since Assist Trophies have the Smash Bros. icon unless an icon is already existing for their series. The only other reason the F-Zero icon would exist is a stage, and to have a stage without the veteran character it belongs to (who just happens to be insanely popular) is a ridiculous theory.

 

[Tobi-]

There we go with that word "Might" again.

It's used here too much.

 

[T-major]

King Dedede has a 98% of being unlockable. he's on the Dojo. this theory of "secret characters wont be shown until after release" got Falcon Punch'd in the face a long time ago...

the gap is probably just due to filler updates caused by the delay.

 

[Tonic_Sonic]

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooo

 

[Takalth]

It's worth considering the best times for him to release character info. We saw Sonic and Dedede, two of the biggest announcements, to offset the news of the delay. We will probably get a character or two around Dec. 3, and another 1 or 2 around Christmas. Finally, there will be some big announcements right before release to make sure that anybody who wasn't planning to get the game right away changes their mind and doesn't have time to change it back.

With that logic, November will be a weak month (one new character announcement at most). December will be cool, and January will provide another weak month (apart from a possible big announcement on new years). February, will launch 2 or 3 big announcements in the few days it has before the game is released.

Atmittedly, I could be dead wrong on this, but after hearing about the delay, I expected a weak November, and I have been right so far.

 

[Super_alex2]

Smashes head through desk*

there will be no DS character. those icon theories are bogus.

 

[XACE-K]

Why does everybody believe trer will be a AC character or DS character just because there is a icon.

 

[T-major]

Why does everybody believe trer will be a AC character or DS character just because there is a icon.

because Animal Crossing is popular, and any character they make would be incredibly original. theres no real reason not to include an AC character; but a DS character doesn't even exist... so I don't see where that comes from...

 

[pass the syrup]

I mean this in the most intelligent way...

Does it really matter? What we get is what we get and we will all still buy it no matter how many veterans are confirmed or how many starters we will know before the game comes out.

 

[Bassoonist]

The DS character obviously doesn't exist (what would it be? A stylus?). The DS Icon disproves the AC Character "Confirmation", as well as the Icon Theory, meaning Game and Watch is still in the air.

Wrong. It disproves the alphebetical part of the icon theory, but not the part where it goes like this:

Super Smash Bros. 64 icons -> Super Smash Bros. Melee icons -> Super Smash Bros. Brawl icons

 

[Magnacor]

It's worth considering the best times for him to release character info. We saw Sonic and Dedede, two of the biggest announcements, to offset the news of the delay. We will probably get a character or two around Dec. 3, and another 1 or 2 around Christmas. Finally, there will be some big announcements right before release to make sure that anybody who wasn't planning to get the game right away changes their mind and doesn't have time to change it back.

With that logic, November will be a weak month (one new character announcement at most). December will be cool, and January will provide another weak month (apart from a possible big announcement on new years). February, will launch 2 or 3 big announcements in the few days it has before the game is released.

I'm not sure I'd call Dedede a big character and we'll probably get a HUGE update at the end of January on the Japanese release date. Other then that, I agree.

Smashes head through desk*

there will be no DS character. those icon theories are bogus.

Desk Repair $100. 555-DESK
Yes, the icon therory was destroyed after the DS icon appeared and I don't know why people assume there can't be a stage without a character. Smash has only had two other games so it's not like it is some tradition that can never be broken.

I mean this in the most intelligent way...

Does it really matter? What we get is what we get and we will all still buy it no matter how many veterans are confirmed or how many starters we will know before the game comes out.

I, for one, would prefer to learn as much as I can about all these characters, because I'll be up all night trying to think of the possible movesets if they don't do it for me.

 

[Big-Cat]

King Dedede has a 98% of being unlockable. he's on the Dojo. this theory of "secret characters wont be shown until after release" got Falcon Punch'd in the face a long time ago...

the gap is probably just due to filler updates caused by the delay.

Why, exactly, is he likely of being unlockable? Surprising characters like Claus, Marina, or Geno should be unlockable and, well, Dedede isn't.


As for this whole DS character thing, one does exist but you're not thinking right. The DS logo is likely just an umbrella term for every DS exclusive franchise like Nintendogs. We might be expecting the EBA as a playable character.

 

[Bassoonist]

Except, having three Kirby characters playable from the start would be odd. Trust me, (at least) one of them will be unlockable.

 

[xbrinkx]

Ok. Here's the deal about characters and how many there are. Now you have to notice that none of the characters in the game have similar moves. At all. Sakurai said himself that he wanted to try and get rid of all the clones and quite a bit of the roster in melee was clones. Although it sold well a lot of people got annoyed at the unneeded characters. One could say that this roster could be the official and complete one. Personally, I think this would be good. Although as a Luigi fan I think maybe a new appearance of him would be good because of his original flow in his games. Maybe take the form of Paper Luigi or Vacuum Luigi, but I digress. 23 characters and no clones is a lot guys.

 

[JaimeHR]

Secret characters being revealed could be possible.

In Soul Calibur 2, I guess Cervantes was confirmed as playable character before the game was released (still not sure about this) yet he was unlockable.

 

[Metalknux]

I just thought of something. Wasn't Ness deconfirmed last week? Perhaps he thinks deconfirmations are as important as confirmations, meaning that's the character for the next two weeks.

 

[soviet prince]

Ok. Here's the deal about characters and how many there are. Now you have to notice that none of the characters in the game have similar moves. At all. Sakurai said himself that he wanted to try and get rid of all the clones and quite a bit of the roster in melee was clones. Although it sold well a lot of people got annoyed at the unneeded characters. One could say that this roster could be the official and complete one. Personally, I think this would be good. Although as a Luigi fan I think maybe a new appearance of him would be good because of his original flow in his games. Maybe take the form of Paper Luigi or Vacuum Luigi, but I digress. 23 characters and no clones is a lot guys.

I heard somewhere that Lugi was accidently confirmed by a nintendo rep at E3.

 

[UsernameLink]

icon theory never showed characters, it showed series in the game, i dont get why people think there HAS to be a character to a series

 

[RedKnight]

No Really?

 

[Magnacor]

Ok. Here's the deal about characters and how many there are. Now you have to notice that none of the characters in the game have similar moves. At all. Sakurai said himself that he wanted to try and get rid of all the clones and quite a bit of the roster in melee was clones. Although it sold well a lot of people got annoyed at the unneeded characters. One could say that this roster could be the official and complete one. Personally, I think this would be good. Although as a Luigi fan I think maybe a new appearance of him would be good because of his original flow in his games. Maybe take the form of Paper Luigi or Vacuum Luigi, but I digress. 23 characters and no clones is a lot guys.

23 characters for a starting roster or the whole roster? That post was seriously flawed. So far none of the characters in the game have similar moves because Sakurai wants to sell games. He won't sell anything by showing 5 different versions of Mario. Your post sounds like you're saying you only want these 23 characters and no others. That, my friend, is crap. There is no way Sakurai would put only 23 characters in the game especially when there are characters like Capt. Falcon and Luigi who are all but confirmed. Which brings me to my final point. Luigi will be a clone. Luigi always has been, and will forever remain, a clone of Mario. In every game Luigi has the same stats as Mario with very little differences and this will not change with Smash. I'm all for getting rid of most clones, but Luigi is an important part of Nintendo's franchise, much more than Vacuum Luigi or Mr. L.

 

[ChaoticTH]

23 characters for a starting roster or the whole roster? That post was seriously flawed. So far none of the characters in the game have similar moves because Sakurai wants to sell games. He won't sell anything by showing 5 different versions of Mario. Your post sounds like you're saying you only want these 23 characters and no others. That, my friend, is crap. There is no way Sakurai would put only 23 characters in the game especially when there are characters like Capt. Falcon and Luigi who are all but confirmed. Which brings me to my final point. Luigi will be a clone. Luigi always has been, and will forever remain, a clone of Mario. In every game Luigi has the same stats as Mario with very little differences and this will not change with Smash. I'm all for getting rid of most clones, but Luigi is an important part of Nintendo's franchise, much more than Vacuum Luigi or Mr. L.

Correction, WAS more than Mr. L

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I don't know, it'd be kind of weird to have 3 starter kirby characters, unless Lololo or someone is a secret character. So far every series with more than one character got a secret character, I'd imagine that pattern would continue.

Either Metaknight or Dedede have a good shot at being unlockable, I believe the former to be honest, because Sakurai <3's Dedede so much.

 

[Brawler1432]

All the characters in brawl would probably add up to mid to high 30s, all of which WOULD NOT BE CLONES, I mean Luigi too, trust me Sakurai means it when he says no more clones.

 

[Big-Cat]

I don't know, that's kind of low. I'm expecting 45+, 50+ if we're lucky.

 

[Limey]

I personally think that it is crazy for anyone to assume that the characters up on the dojo are all starters. There are so many!

Granted, i'm not saying it's not possible, but i think people are having really high hopes when they think that all the characters up there are starters.

 

[Magnacor]

In the end All the characters in brawl would add up to mid to high 30s, all of which WOULD NOT BE CLONES, I mean Luigi too, trust me akurai means it when he says no more clones.

Well dang, if you said it, it must be true. A couple things:
That is an opinion
Luigi will be in
There will likely be at least 40 characters
Sakurai probably meant he wouldn't add any unnecessary clones. Luigi is necessary whereas characters like Dr. Mario, Pichu, Falco, Young Link, Roy, and Ganondorf are not or at least could get original movesets.

 

[Brawler1432]

Well i meant it as an opinion, and they will change luigi up a bit, he probably won't be a clone, but he will have a few of marios moves, of course though they can't get rid of him, he's been in smash since the beggining.

 

[KazenoZ]

It's worth considering the best times for him to release character info. We saw Sonic and Dedede, two of the biggest announcements, to offset the news of the delay. We will probably get a character or two around Dec. 3, and another 1 or 2 around Christmas. Finally, there will be some big announcements right before release to make sure that anybody who wasn't planning to get the game right away changes their mind and doesn't have time to change it back.

With that logic, November will be a weak month (one new character announcement at most). December will be cool, and January will provide another weak month (apart from a possible big announcement on new years). February, will launch 2 or 3 big announcements in the few days it has before the game is released.

Atmittedly, I could be dead wrong on this, but after hearing about the delay, I expected a weak November, and I have been right so far.

You should remember that the Japanese release is in Jan, that kinda throws your whole theory off.

@Whoever it was before asking of Luigi, yes, a staff member at the E4A(Not in E3) has unintentionally confirmed Luigi, and the stupid girl interviewing him haven't even noticed =P, you should easily find it on YouTube.

@Brawler, well, so was Ness, and apparently he's pretty close to the hang pit.

@Anyone who based their answer on the Kirby characters, remember how modest Sakurai is? He said in an interview that the only reason he haven't put any of his own characters as unlockables or secrets because he didn't find them special enough, while MetaKnight is a definite starter(He was one of the characters shown in the first trailer, how wouldn't he?), and so is Kirby, who was a starter throught both games, Dedede is the only one who has a chance of being unlockable/secret, but seeing how Sakurai is, he has less chance than other characters.
On another note, if PT isn't a secret I really don't see a reason for Dedede to be.

 

[Malkun]

nah i think there gonna give a few secrets like probably Sonic and Dedede will be and then the rest will me starters