Ok so a few things I noticed:
You need to work on your movement a bit more, it's getting there, but you can be a lot faster. Consistency and speed are just things you build up through a lot of practice. Grind out wavedashing different lengths, SHFFLing, wavelanding on platforms and out of bair or fj fireball.
Also don't approach with fireball, because it doesnt have hitstun or priority so jason just cced it and punished. Retreating fireball is ok though, try to do that more.
You don't have to approach right away, bait things and find an opening to get in. Mario isn't a spacey.
But yeah, those were the major points.
Game 2 your movement was a lot smoother.
You had a really nice UpB walljump recovery in there
It seems like you are trying to predict a LOT more than you are reacting. You kind of just seem to throw out moves sometimes and you get punished for it.
Also be really careful with some of those capes... not sure why you throw some of those out there, but yeah... try to do that less. A lot of people will bait those out of you and punish it.