I can agree with most of what you said, but there's one other thing that I'd like to add to this.
Based on the fact that Nintendo has put a large amount of effort into supporting this IP, and with the fact that this is their newest IPs in ages, they will most likely want to support it in the future in some way or another. While it isn't doing so hot out of the gate, neither is the games home system, and that's where this leads me to my next point.
First off, Nintendo has not promoted this game any more than their other games as of late, no more than Pikmin 3, Game & Wario, or more than they will for games this holiday. Heck, they even promoted third-party games like Monster Hunter as much as they promoted W101. And really the reason they have given all these games so much attention is because it's really all they've had these last few years to show for the Wii U. Also, just because it's a new IP hardly means Nintendo is going to choose to persue it in future installments, especially since it's done so poorly. There are probably a dozen new IPs Nintendo has created this past gen that never received a follow-up, with it's sales I wouldn't be surprised if W101 joined those ranks. Plus if they were to focus on any of their new IPs in the future, chances are it'd be Nintendo Land, that at least has decently marketability and a decent-sized audience.
Also, keep in mind that what is important to Nintendo and what is important to Sakurai can and do differ. Sure Nintendo can ultimately overrule Sakurai, but previously they've never attempted to force him into including a new IP, so chances are (especially since W101 will be relatively old news when Smash launches) they'll just leave him to his decisions like usual.
While Ridley and K.Rool are huge and popular choices (HA
) there is quite honestly nothing in Nintendo's agenda to add them to Smash (Moreso K.Rool, I guess not so much Ridley). His lack of appearances DOES hurt him, and Nintendo will likely want their new products shown off, and Sakurai had to of at least heard something about the Wonderful 101 if Nintendo was freaking out about it like they did. K.Rool has received little to no attention as of late, and because of that I find it very questionable whether he or Dixie will get the spot.
Again, Sakurai is the one who chooses the characters, not Nintendo. And even if Nintendo does have some input, obviously they've never forced a character from an unreleased IP (at the time of roster creation) into the roster, which really suggests that there'd be no precedent of them doing such this time either. Especially since one, Nintendo wasn't freaking out about W101 when Sakurai was creating the roster, the game was still in development then, two, by the time Smash releases Nintendo will want to focus elsewhere, on newer products, even if the W101 had done well, and three, W101 isn't Nintendo's only new IP, there's no guarantee they'd pick that one anyway. You're trying to argue the point of recentness when the game in question wasn't released during roster creation (which is obviously important for new IPs), won't be the "hot new game" when Smash releases, and has weightier competition from other unrepresented IPs. Recentness doesn't mean a whole lot for new IPs and Smash.
Also, I think it's too early to speak so definitively about K. Rool. Sakurai has added characters who haven't made impactful appearances in years previously, such as Marth, Ness, and Samus (who hadn't been seen for several years before their inclusion, over a generation in fact). Not that I think K. Rool is definitely going to be included, Dixie's chances are imo just as good, only that I'd hardly dismiss him at this point.
Olimar made sense to be added because Pikmin was a new game that was previously unrepresented. But now with Smash 4, we have very few brand new series that are a big deal at Nintendo. Basically, it has been W101, Xenoblade (Or X)...and that's all that comes to mind currently. If I remember correctly, Pikmin was never a huge seller with it's first two installments. Feel free to call me out on that because i'm too lazy to check because I just got out of work.
No, Olimar made sense to be added because Pikmin turned out to be a successful, multi-installment series with a notable fanbase, not because it was "new" and "unrepresented". By that logic, and IP that's come out since Smash began should be added. Also, I don't know why you're under the assumption Smash is in such dire need of
new series. Brawl's newest series was Pikmin, and that game came out at the beginning of the generation before. Smash 4 already has Wii Fit, which could be seen as a parallel. Sakurai has never been dogged about adding new series, he includes what he thinks merit inclusion, regardless of age. Sure, we might get a newer IP than Wii Fit, like Xenoblade, but it won't be because it's new, it's because it has other points in it's favour to combat being new, because honestly just being new isn't a point in a series' favour, as Sakurai could think it's not "proven" itself enough to match up to the series already added. Which would be a valid thought.
And both Gamecube Pikmin titles sold over a million iirc, which, for the Gamecube, could count a a "huge seller".
Wonder Red has a shot, whether it is small or bigger than we think. I personally believe that a lot of favored characters this time around are relying strictly on popularity, which isn't necessarily a good thing if they don't have other things that will boost them over others. Now before I go any further, I want to stress that again, nobody can know for sure what's going to happen. If you ask me, there are characters that we support relentlessly that have a border to break with recency, or unoriginality.
Relying on popularity is still better than relying on recentness. Especially since recentness in a new IP is not a positive to Sakurai. Popularity has gotten characters in before, while recentness has never got a new IP included. And sure, Wonder Red could be cool in Smash, and he could work, but who's to say these other characters that are "relying on popularity" also couldn't work? If you're talking about the three below, they all could definitely work in Smash and offer something new, just like Wonder Red could. The difference with them though is they have a much greater deal of overall importance and impact with Nintendo than the W101 has made. Like I said before, what does Wonder Red have, other than recentness (which isn't a point in his favour, it's not like he's a new Pokemon or FE lord) that other candidates for unrepresented IPs don't? Moveset potential? Characters like Isaac, Little Mac, Shulk, etc. have a fair amount of moveset potential as well, definitely enough for a unique moveset. Plus, they also have some measure of popularity and impact with Nintendo, which is more than Wonder Red can honestly claim to have.
K.Rool hasn't shown up in a major role recently, and it appears that he may not be in the newest game. In an era where Nintendo is struggling, it would honestly make more sense to add Dixie, that is unless K.Rool is in Tropical Freeze.
Yeah, I think Dixie very well might get in over K. Rool, but K. Rool still has points in his favour as well. However, this really doesn't relate too much to Wonder Red... it seems it's more of a K. Rool vs. Dixie debate. If you're meaning to suggest that Wonder Red has more going for him that K. Rool, I'd have to disagree with you on that.
Isaac is in limbo I'd say. Sure, he'd be cool, but he hasn't appeared in forever. You have to admit that it would be a little strange for him to pop up out of nowhere to a certain extent. If he had appeared in a new Golden Sun game, I would rate him in very strong standing, but because his last game was awhile ago, and he wasn't even the main character, I think he may struggle.
Forever? His last appearance was two years prior to the roster being created. His franchise can't even be declared as dormant yet, it's only been three years since the last one. And given the choice between a character who maybe hasn't had a playable appearance for a while, but still has an ongoing series, a series that has had both popularity and success, a series that has actually left an impact, or a series that's going to get its first game in a year, a game of undetermined quality, impact, and success at the time of inclusion, which do you think Sakurai would prioritize ahead of the other?
In addition, if the character merits inclusion in Sakurai's mind, "popping up out of nowhere" isn't his biggest concern. Look at the retro characters. Look at Samus, or Ness, who didn't have a title in their series for five years (not two) when they were included. Or Marth, who hadn't made an appearance since two console generations prior. Those characters, like Isaac (though obviously to a larger extent) had other points in their favour that outweighed their current absence from games. What will Wonder Red have? Not popularity or notable previous success.
Little Mac I see as a character that struggles with originality. I believe that he should've been in Brawl as a retro besides Pit. However because his character is based off of a boxer, a moveset that has other things other than punching would be out of character. There isn't much to work with. When Sakurai is looking for uniqueness, it is very possible that Sakurai will pass over him.
Why would he have been in Brawl with Pit? I mean, it could've been possible, but then Pit was the more popular contender, who had some measure of worldwide popularity, as well as the potential fact that Sakurai might've tried to add him previously. Sakurai clearly doesn't want to overload the game with retro characters, which Little Mac was at the time. Regardless, not getting in Brawl is anything but a nail in the coffin for Little Mac considering Punch-Out Wii was quite the successful game all things considered. Now he has better chances than ever before. As far as originality goes, if Sakurai can make a moveset for characters with absolutely nothing to work with, he can create a moveset for a character who has a limited method of attacking. That's like saying a character with a sword has nothing to work with because they only have sword attacks. Look how many variations of punching are already in Smash. Just imagine Little Mac with Marth's attacks, a charge-up punch, a forward combo of punches, an uppercut, and a parry. Sure, not the most creative or best use of Mac's potential, and definitely not how Little Mac would end up being implemented, but it works. Not only could Mac use his own punches, if Sakurai got creative he might even be able to use the tactics of other boxers in Punch-Out, or punching moves original to Smash, like many characters have. While Wonder Red might have a flashier moveset, they can both work in Smash.
Oi. So much typing. Sorry for the long response N30N. Things just keep coming to mind and I freak out and keep typing.
No problem, I'm no stranger to rambling. I'm guilty of it myself.
All i'm trying to say is, that while Wonder Red may not be on the radar for fans, he's absolutely on the radar at Nintendo, who has their hands in Smash Bros. I find it dangerous to set him aside as an impossibility, and I think he has a decent chance. Decent =/= absolute, but I don't think it's a bad enough situation to abandon all hope.
The thing is, he's on the radar for Nintendo (not necessarily Sakurai) now. Not a year ago, not a year from now, but NOW. And this will likely be the only time he's on a radar. Regardless of his reception, a non-retro IP with a sole game has never gotten in Smash before. Sakurai has never preemptively added an IP before. Nintendo has never forced Sakurai to include a new IP, certainly not one that has yet to be released. There are IPs with more weight to them than W101. IPs with more impact, games, and popularity. Why would Sakurai choose Wonder Red? And if he did, why would he not be unveiled by now, the absolute BEST time for him to be revealed? I'm not saying he's an impossibility, I'm just saying he is largely outweighed by not one or two other unrepresented IPs, but several. Because honestly, as cool as he'd be, what does he have going for him that would cause Sakurai to add him BEFORE HIS GAME EVEN CAME OUT? He didn't even do that for Pikmin.
