Not totally sure about striking to Yoshi's; if you like Yoshi's a lot, it's probably fine.
You start the game by jumping at the middle platform with a fair, then bombing. ... Meh. Samus wants to be on the ground; putting yourself on the top platform is generally not great. The only reason you don't get punished is because Medz misspaces the nair from the platform and then the fj bair from the ground due to your bomb; that's a good sign, I guess, but more his bad than your good.
You get him with a shieldpoke upb vs his running shield, and then he nairs past you sorta stupidly, and you shieldpoke bair him, and he SD's. Welp.
Next, he tries to upthrow upair you, but you bomb out, yay. Then you bomb again, twice, to cover your descent. This somehow works, probably because he's surprised by the bomb. He dashes away, and you uptilt. Why? After he's hit by the bomb, you should probably ftilt, because if he'd reacted properly to the bomb (probably jc grab, since you're in a bunch of lag from morphball and he's nearby -> he expects you to shield), your utilt won't come out in time.
(for reference we're at 42:37 right now)
The other problem with utilt is that it has a lot of ending lag. He punishes that by dd -> dairing you, overshooting; you both shield, and then you try to upb oos, it looks like (?). Since he's far enough away to not get hit, he bairs you twice (you try to escape by doublejumping; dunno if I agree with that) for your upb attempt. Don't reach for super-far-away upbs; too much risk for too little reward.
You slide away and dtilt, but again, he's nowhere close (maybe you didn't think you'd slide that far?) Luckily he responds too slowly and you shield his bair, but you don't do anything out of shield (well, you drop your shield)! He dashdances, a common option from many characters after this kind of spaced aerial, probably hoping to bait upb oos. If you expect him to do that, you should have wavedashed forward oos -> jab / ftilt, which would've caught him out of dashdance.
Anyway after the dd, this time he does the other kind of upb bait, nair -> shield. You shield it in time, spotdodge (what are you hoping to dodge here? nair -> grab?) and immediately dsmash his shield. He waveshines you oos, which will punish fsmash/dsmash/dtilt/unspaced ftilt on shield, and maybe utilt on shield as well; don't hit shields with laggy moves! You slide all the way off the stage, which can be prevented by flicking down on the control stick to fastfall for a few frames to the ledge. (see
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZYFovQ3vRY), and now you're in a pretty bad situation.
Luckily he does a pretty bad edgeguard (grab ledge -> drop shine when you've sweetspotted your grapple), but you react to him doublejumping back onto the stage by attempting a normal getup -> dsmash. Normal getup is too slow. Choose a faster way to get on the stage (AI) if you want to dsmash, or do a ledgehop aerial instead (which would've caught him here because he was just standing there). Doing a really far waveland into the middle of the stage could? successfully reset you to neutral as well. Anyway, he reacts by shining you again, and you're busy trying to dsmash so you dair. He again screws up his edgeguard, so you recover.
He does an empty shorthop, shines your shield, and wavedashes out, probably again trying to bait upb oos. You do a fulljump oos instead (I'm guessing you tried to upb?), realize you're in trouble, and bomb. This lets you dodge his nair, and forces him to shield while you land. But here (42:51) you elect to... fulljump upair? This doesn't accomplish very much, even if he did get stuck in his shield, especially because you misspaced the uair so that only the first few hits would hit his shield (I'm pretty sure). As it happened, he shielddrops as expected (he's from AZ bruh, he's got the shielddrops), but instead of punishing you, he's scared and rolls (maybe afraid of a dsmash because he landed beside you right before you fulljump upaired?)
He tries to cover your landing with a dair, but you bomb and escape again. Seems like a panic reflex for you, but it's working out for now. It won't be as good when he adapts to it.
He runs away and lasers, so you run up to him, good. But you run up and... dtilt? He definitely has time to shield that dtilt, but I think he lightshields or something, and he slides all the way off the stage. You respond by wavedashing back, which is a bit baffling; before wavedashing back, you're in good position to cover his doublejump back to stage with an ftilt, but now you're too far away to do anything!
Now that he's back on the stage, you wd forward -> shield, which is decent. He jumps to the platform and drop -> bairs your shield, which is spaced, so I'm happy you didn't upb. You then wavedash back, causing his dashdance nair to PERFECTLY miss, but instead of punishing it, you jump backward!! (missed wavedash?) When you see the nair at that spacing, that's an immediate crouch -> dsmash/dtilt! Either he'll miss completely, or he'll hit with the weak end of the nair and you'll be able to cc that. (42:56 right now)
Ok, not only did you jump backward, I think you doublejump backward (dangerous!!) before bombing. He runs away, which is a little weird, but maybe he's scared of the bomb by now. You missile, so he jumps to the top platform, and you jump below that platform and BOMB! Wow. Why? If you think he's gonna fall there, wouldn't you prefer to place a nair there instead?
As it happened he falls into the bomb, causing you to pop up onto the top platform. This now sucks for you because Fox is below you! You're scared and bomb some more (pretty questionable here), and he hits you with a weak upair and then a strong upair. The reason you got into this bad position is that bomb below the top platform from earlier, so this might be a reason you don't want to bomb all the time in neutral: bombing can pop you up, and you almost never want to be above them!
You miss your waveland, instead airdodging onto the stage -> shield. He jumps onto the platform, drops, and also shields (I don't really agree with this decision by him, lol; shoulda punished your airdodge I think). (43:06 now.) You catch his jump with upb, good patience. You direct your upb so that you miss the platforms (and fastfall; good!), landing on the ground while he misses the tech on the top platform. I guess this puts you in a decent position, though I'm pretty sure that if you up-bed onto the platform, you could've gotten a techchase dsmash. Oh well.
He drops naively into your uptilt, nice, but manages to bounce and grab the ledge. I have no idea why you shoot this small chargeshot here (trying to catch the approach? but it does so little hitstun...), but he stops to shield it and you get your shield up before he running shines you. You do nothing out of shield (probably should wd out), and he fulljumps out of shine -> shieldpoke bair.
Another recovery situation, which he again botches. Good grapple, followed by a good edgeguard (though it probably wouldn't have worked if he weren't going for Randall, lol.)
You charge and run around the stage, fine. You manage to shield his running shine in time, good. He wds out and dashes back and you bomb oos, pretty cool lol. He tries to jump over the bomb and nair you but you spaced yourself and shoot him; nice!! Still, I wonder if a dsmash would've been better here, since you were basically _at_ the right ledge, so dsmash would hit him off the ledge. He misses the tech, and you run forward and hope he'll do a getup in place, or something? with a grab. I don't think grab is good here; almost every option he has beats it! He chose roll back -> slide onto ledge (something Fox / Falco can do from their knockdown roll on basically every stage, so watch for it), and punishes you by running up and grabbing, probably since he expects you to shield after a missed grab (and also you're shielding a lot.)
You bomb out of the upthrow, fall and bomb again. He doesn't even try to follow up the upthrow but tries to catch your descent with a bair instead, missing embarrassingly (he should've hit that bair.) He nairs off the platform but fades back due to your bomb, so your utilt also misses (I think this utilt might've been ok, actually, since he was on the platform and you had a bomb covering your front?)
You both do some sloppy movement (why are you turning around during your wavedashes? why is he missing that waveland?) and you catch his poor drop bair from top platform attempt (lol why would he try that) with wavedash back dsmash, nice. You try to edgeguard with some super missiles, which would've been ok if he'd DI'd higher. (I guess the high missile could've caught his doublejump, but unlikely.) Maybe sh homing missile instead of sh super missile could've worked here (??)
Anyway, he doublejump -> fastfall -> illusions, which is pretty decent, I guess. Another possible edgeguard could've been just to wait to see if he doublejumps or not, and just cover the ledge with utilt / dangled ftilt / dangled fsmash (going to the ledge is the safest recovery, and you know he's a pretty decent Fox so going to the ledge is pretty likely).
You uptilt immediately after the second missile, which might cover... like... normal getup or something? It aaaalmost hits his terrible ledgejump, so maybe it was ok, but it would've lost to a correct ledgedash, maybe? would've beat Fox's ridiculous "platform ledgedash," and was too far away to threaten the ledge so it would've lost to "wait" as well. I would've maybe chosen wavedash back to center here, though I dunno, utilt was probably the best attack to use here. (43:38)
He goes for some fancy shielddrop bair stuff here, but you dash wd away, good. He's shielding after missing the bair, and you dash back in and respond to his shield by shielding? huh? and then jumping? Not sure what you were trying to do here, lol. After wavedashing back you should've ftilted or something to cover his landing, maybe?
You both panic here; you bomb and he rolls. He nairs you but gets hit by the bomb. You miss your grapple, bleh.
You use your invincibility to shoot two missiles, fine, but he escape to top platform. Then you try to chase him with a doublejump (???) while he drops, and your invincibility ends with you bombing above the top platform and him on the ground. This positions SUCKS!
Luckily you make it down (43:50) because he misses his nair. You do some cute walk forward -> wd back stuff, but he's just content to laser you. You punish him for shdling too close with an ftilt, good. You follow up with a standing missile, but he just doublejumps back to the ledge... and misses his ledgedash. SDs woooo.
Now you're at a commanding lead: 3 stocks 5% to 1 stock. It goes downhill from here.
You charge, run into center stage, shield, and jump -> bomb oos. He knows how to punish this now: he ignores the bomb and nairs you, and grabs your landing. Jump -> bomb is not that good an option!!!
You doublejump out of his uthrow, and bomb to avoid his attempted juggling uair, nice. Then you drift toward him without a move (???) and get shined. Either drift away or put out a move; you're just asking to get hit here.
Some more neutral happens, and then you fulljump -> bomb oos AGAIN. This time you don't get immediately punished, but he backairs you when you pop into the air from the bomb landing. You shield the next bair, and then doublejump up to the top platform to challenge him... with bomb? No!! Don't go to the top platform!! Somehow you escape from his attempted nair with another bomb, but now you're STILL on the top platform! Life sucks! You bomb again and he bairs you for it. You miss the tech but spotdodge his followup nair, nice. He shields, expecting run off bair or something from you, but you run off bomb and escape, I guess; fine.
He's running around on platforms and you throw out a random utilt. He's too slow to punish and you upb his dair attempt, good. (44:16 right now) You again ff all the way to the ground, which is pretty good, but you could've again gotten a platform techchase from the upb! He techs in place and drop -> aerial shines, expecting a shot, which you wisely don't shoot. But instead of punishing that shine with a wd ftilt, you run up and shield
What is he gonna do out of shine, lol? He can't get any horizontal mobility if he's just shining there like that.
He jumps back to the top platform, and you... wd back grab? Huh? He gets a nice punish string off on you for that (20%) but you do some nice DI to the ledge on his dthrow. You get up and spotdodge, baiting out his dd grab which you dsmash, nice; this is your chance!! This time you choose to just do a standing missile when sh super missile would've caught his doublejump
You react to his upb by taking ledge, which is fine, but he goes straight and recovers.
To punish his recovery, you do a ... normal getup again!! Why??? You try to walk up dsmash him but (1) you're too far and (2) his shield is long up. Once you saw him going forward, you should've done a ledgedash -> ftilt / dsmash / dtilt / whatever. But you were too slow and he shines you for it. You get ledge and follow by ledgejumping... again, why? Oh, maybe you don't know how to ledge AI / ledgedash? o.o
He gets first hit upair and you bomb in panic again, which he bairs you for. He again screws up the edgeguard horrendously and you get the ledge. Now Fox is shielding at the ledge facing away from you. I'm pretty sure ledgehop fair -> upb works here, and will probably shieldstab. Alternatively, AI -> shield, or just wait for his shield to deplete a bit. You chose to do a slow 100% getup while he jumped. You wd forward -> shield while he dd -> shields, and you manage to poke him with upb, nice. I'm pretty sure you could've tried to shield asap after landing, but instead you get clipped by his drop -> weak bair and fall into his techchase upsmash (maybe could've doublejumped here? but you were probably mashing bomb lol.)
You respawn and shoot some missiles which is fine, and take center stage, good. You throw out an utilt which he shields, and you slide back from it before you dtilt, which totally whiffs. He wds back oos anyway (wrong, should've wd shined you; also he got 0 waveshine upsmashes on you this whole game, which is pretty sad.)
He lasers a bit, you move forward, he spaces a dair to hit you there, you wd -> really slow ftilt, lol. Fine. He gets knocked down and misses the tech, so you... wavedash on top of him and shield? I'm not saying I can do this yet, but you can learn to react to missed tech (there's a green flash) and you could dsmash him at that range for missing the tech. But even if you didn't do that, why would you possibly want to wd on top of him and shield? So you can up-b his getup attack?? That's not that good...
He rolls right and you reset to neutral. He hits with a drillshine this time (work on SDIing drills so that the shine doesn't hit; I still have to practice this too :/), to a pretty fast jc grab (pretty sure?) followup. He fthrows you (??); you seem to be DIing up? and doublejump bomb while he dd nairs your landing; luckily your bomb hits him so it wasn't worthless. Still, your bombing habits are becoming very very obvious. You try to doublejump fair him onto the platform here, which is maaaybe ok but I think you'd probably prefer to just grab the ledge here (on the other hand, you're not that comfortable with ledge options so maybe not.)
You manage to shield his retaliation bair, good, but now you just stay on the platform and try to spotdodge / cc dsmash his bairs? I think you're out of cc % for strong bair now (39%), and yeah he spaces the bair well and fades back so your cc dsmash misses. (45:01) You spotdodge again (?? why? if he does an aerial and you spotdodge it, what do you gain? get off the platform!!) and he just waits and bairs you for it. You do another doublejump fair, which can't possibly hit him because he's under the platform, and land... back on the platform. And dsmash when he's not even on the platform. You're not Peach
You get baired again and thankfully fall onto the ledge this time.
You do normal getup->shield, which is somehow fast enough (again, not that good because normal getup is slow) to block his plat drop bair. He shields, maybe hoping for upb, and you get a super nice shieldgrab on him... but you don't follow up the upthrow at all!!! When you notice forward DI, you can't just jump forward; you probably need to dash forward 1 frame before jumping. Even then, you maaaaybe could've clipped him with nair, but instead you do nothing as he doublejumps out onto the top plat. Then, you bomb before hitting the ground... why? What does this bomb accomplish?? (45:08)
You do your standard low bomb -> utilt wall but he just runs away. Some more neutral-game stuff happens, and you get clipped by a sh nair while walking forward. You miss the tech so he nairs you again, and you do a doublejump -> early upb recovery. This upb clips him, but he DI's out and lands first, and jab upsmashes you because you upb'd onto the stage. Ugh. Considering how poorly he was doing with his earlier edgeguards, you should've probably just gone for a sweetspot grapple again... this whole sequence is an example why "high upb to hit them" is sorta risky, because if they get out, you get hit for free.
You're starting to look pretty nervous now. You do your standard respawn missiling, which does nothing as usual (try mixing it up?) He's sitting on the left plat, and you try to approach him with wd in shield (45:27) but he's doing another sloppy waveland on the top plat by now.you wd oos forward and get clipped by his plat drop bair as you turn around (you should've expected that bair.) But that was a weak bair and you're at 0; where's the cc dsmash?
Instead you do shield, followed by missing a wavedash toward him. He does a kinda bad drill (probably could've upb'd / dsmashed again since it was misspaced) but you shield again. These shields are "panic" shields I think: you wanted to shield before, but now you're too late, and you think "oh well, better late than never!" This is wrong! Adapt to the situation at hand! (45:29)
He shines and wds through while you... ouch, doublejump oos -> bomb. The doublejump lets you dodge his fj bair, but now you artificially put yourself in a bad position AGAIN. You get baired for it. You bomb again, bleh.
Reset to neutral. You missile, he lasers, nbd. Then you run, jump at him and nair? What? Did you suddenly become Fox?? (45:34) Why would you run all the way across the stage and nair when you haven't tried something this silly at all the whole match? Maybe you're just super nervous, heh...
More footsies, and then you end up crouching in front of his shield. You panic and dsmash. Wavedash away! Dash away! Wavedash/dash THROUGH him and cross him up! Do jab pressure! Do your favorite move, bomb! Hell, you could grab! Instead you choose one of the worst options, and ah, there's the first waveshine upsmash of the game. You're out of crouch-cancel % now.
You get back on stage, he starts lasering again and you walk toward him... but without putting out a move (ftilt!) so you get naired while trying a ridiculous grab (hoping he'll shield because you're approaching him? but you haven't conditioned him to be threatened by ftilts!). Luckily you make it to the platform and ledgecancel, so his upsmash followup misses, and of COURSE you doublejump bomb from that position. He doesn't punish.
You do a cute walk off plat -> bomb -> fadeback bait, but he doesn't fall for it. Luckily for you, he runs away instead of keeping pressure on you, and you drop with a missile (which gets blocked by a fly guy, rip.) More neutral game stuff happens; you're just wding around without throwing out moves, even though you probably could've punished his roll with an ftilt or something.
You do a risky dash attack in neutral but he doesn't punish. Instead he drops next to you and shields, which you panic up-b. He misses his waveland and airdodges right on top of you, but you... shield???? NOOOOOOO that was a free dsmash or at least an upb! And then you spotdodge, which is pointless because he's facing away from you and can't grab, while nair/bair oos will just hit you anyway.
You do some cute crossup stuff and fsmash towards him, which maybe would've covered wd forward, but he messes up his wd back instead. You bait him into a bad dair, which you get a super nice grab for... and then you totally botch the punish!!!
The fair is fine, though you should prefer nair, but then he's in a position where you can get more followups! Then as he doublejumps (45:56), you... fsmash the middle of nowhere??!
He bairs you for that and grabs ledge. You dj fair at the empty stage and he bairs you again (why did you do that?) He gives you ledge for free because he's scared, and goes to the platform. You ledgehop fair the empty stage again and he bairs you yet again. You up-b waaaaay too high and he bairs you AGAIN. Repeat. Third time you actually catch him with upb and now you're on stage and he's offstage.
This is a super hard angle for him to sweetspot, so you reaaaally slowly turnaround and try to uptilt... but there's no way uptilt will be fast enough! Fsmash would've worked! You get hit by upb, fly up, come back down, predictably bomb, and get baired into oblivion. GG.