TWEWY Mafia | scumbags victorious

[Cello_Marl]

You claimed to have first contacted Omni at 4-6 Mountain time, yesterday. That's 2-4 Eastern. Even if we assume that you meant Ante Meridiem, then that's still a lie.

I'm just really glad im in a hydra so Zen can deal with this. according to him this is normal and it's just "cello being cello"? just plain awful. if you're town you're single handling making this 10x easy for mafia/sk. i really hope you are SK/Mafia putting on a huge facade because at least i know you're acting this way for a reason

This is post #118, made at 12:28 am EST yesterday. Note the bold section, "according to him this is normal and it's just "cello being cello"?" He was in contact with you at that point. AT LEAST and hour and a half before you claimed that you had spoken.

 

[I am Zim!]

Yesterday = Friday

 

[I am Zim!]

I haven't gone to sleep yet. To me it's still Saturday.

 

[Swiss]

LPM would sound fine to me... if the person claiming it actually is mafia.

Problem is, if everyone knows that we Pardon claimed Mafias on Day 1, then everyone is going to do it, because it helps their faction win, regardless of which it is (except possibly SK, but he's screwed regardless in that situation). Heck, if I knew I was about to die today, I would claim mafia with LPM, as should everyone else in that situation. Knowing it would stop a mislynch for at least one day is a good thing. Of course, mafia members would do the same as it would ensure their survival to D2, where they can continue toward their wincon.

******.

More content soon.

 

[Cello_Marl]

EBWOP: That's 6-8 Eastern.

At 5 and a half hours before you claimed you had spoken

 

[Cello_Marl]

@Zim: Alright then. At 6 am EST, I hadn't said anything OTHER than the comments on Sho-Minamimoto. What then did you discuss about me, that made you think I was a bad player if you didn't talk about that. At. All. Nor. Care. Ever.

 

[I am Zim!]

wat? 4-6 pm after school going to my friends house after watching a movie after scool "the last king of scottland" in Amnesty International. We started the movie at about 3. I hopped on Aim on my phone on some time between school micky ds and my friends house.

 

[I am Zim!]

@mod: request replacement

dunno if omni is staying, but im out. sorry to omni and vandy both. It would be a great game without cello but i really cant stand playing with him. im just not enjoying this. sorry.

also delv is scum or fbi.

most likely scum.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Were you in constant communication, or did Omni ever leave to take care of anything, and if so, what?

 

[Cello_Marl]

Fine, fine.

Unvote Vote Delvro

You do it too, J or SephMasa, whoever that is. You've been watching this whole exchange.

 

[Swiss]

Zim is town.

Why exactly do you think Delv is scummy, Cello? I see Zim's reasoning but not yours (skim ftw).

Also, Delv, do you think your play style has changed since Discworld? Also, you stated that you found my intro and play scummy - do you think this is universally true? If I were to ever/have do/done this in another game, would you react the same?

 

[Cello_Marl]

I don't need reasoning, I'm Cello.

We're going to "lynch" Delvro, but he will claim mafia because he is and knows that it is in his faction's best interests to do so. Who would you recommend we lynch for D1, Swiss? I know who I want.

 

[Swiss]

Assuming LPM on Delv then Nabe or Shio.

Thanks to the hundreds of posts between them I have clear and concise reads. I'd take Shio first 'cuz dat J been online. Want something from Nabe. Anything.

Do not tell me you're going back to Zim. I will rage.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Why would I unvote if I intended to go back to Zim?

Agree with Shio first, but I'd be just as glad to go X1. I know he's V/LA, but having an excuse doesn't mean we still know anything about his slot. I'll accept a unanimous agreement that he be the investigation target, but I'd rather have Nabe known as non-SK over X1.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Actually, let's not discuss this any further. If mafia believes we intend to lynch their ally, they lose their incentive to actually aid us by claiming.

 

[Swiss]

I forgot X1 was in the game.

X1 then has to be complete null, so we only lynch him if we have leaning town or mafia-claims on everyone else. Which we won't have.

Unless you want to lynch him because he's useless, which I'd understand.

 

[Cello_Marl]

He'll be here later anyway, so he shouldn't remain null for long. We'll see.

 

[Swiss]

FYI just post some pseudo reasoning for Delv and I'll jump on the wagon.

 

[Swiss]

Or go offline.


Delv why did you respond to my #65?

 

[Cello_Marl]

LPM is the strategy I (in the background) suggested in my very first game of forum mafia, Newbie 3. I was in a non-killing Mafia against a Town that had a Werewolf detecting Seer as it's only power role and a group of Night Killing Werewolves (sound familiar?). Delvro was in my scum team. He knows LPM assists the mafia faction (I'm pretty sure it aids Town too, but I'm not entirely certain). He did not actively oppose LPM being used in this game.

 

[Delvro]

Townies will not claim mafia. It is already known that the claimant will the die the Day after, and it is intuitively obvious that the fewer people there are, the more likely it is that we will lynch scum. On the other hand, FBI agent can safely claim mafia to survive, since he will be unCCed the next Day.

What naive way to think.

In this game, a townie lynch is crippling more so than others. Why would a townie NOT claim mafia under LPM, in order to get a scum lynched d1 instead? If a mafia member happens to die before d2, then obviously an analysis would be made and the guy who claimed mafia may or may not die D2. It's at worst a null and at best saves town from a mislynch.

******.

More content soon.

I don't care.



With regards to your other post, this game is a unique situation. You're scummy because you flipped your stance on no lynch to three different viewpoints, all with no explanation of your own and all after analysis from different people. Your stances thus far have been completely fluid.

If I saw you considering a no lynch in a different (non-open setup) game, I would probably vote you immediately. The situation that has taken place here would never arise in another game.

 

[Cello_Marl]

In this game, a townie lynch is crippling more so than others. Why would a townie NOT claim mafia under LPM, in order to get a scum lynched d1 instead?

Because it is far more likely that a second lynch will hit a townie anyway. Hitting scum on the backswing isn't guaranteed. That's why we got shot down in Newbie 3, remember? Losing a townie with the very minimum possible information (not having an investigation as well as a body), then another due to his lie is what would be crippling. That's 2v1v1 if we get LUCKY and scum hits one of the actual mafia. Even then, we'd only have an 8.33% chance of winning.

 

[Delvro]

8.33% chance of winning? You seriously need to stop abusing statistics.

Say a townie claimed Mafia. Then the chance of a scum lynch after claim, assuming random, is 50%. (3 remaining plain townies, 3 anti-town) "far more likely to hit a town" is a complete lie. It's one out of two. In fact, there's a low chance that both mafia would die before D2.

Even on the 50% that we DO hit a second townie, there are 2 out of 6 mafia that the SK could hit during the night, although this is not

This is assuming only the person who is about to get lynched realizes this. But, the point is that it's still a sensible thing to do.

 

[Swiss]

A townie claiming mafia will gte them lynched anyway, all it does is give the SK a free kill.

No townie will ever claim mafia.

 

[Swiss]

I don't care.

I wasn't insulting you as a person, but the post which was ******** i.e. incorrect logic or clearly incorrect reasoning. (Note I forget exactly what your post was). Do you still 'not care'? It's a very easy way to brush off my remark, but offers no insight. You made no attempt to convince anyone that your post was correct or reasonable. Why?

 

[Cello_Marl]

Fake claiming mafia is never a good idea for vanilla town, Delvro. Ever.

You say that there is a 50% chance of hitting scum if they do so. 50% town, 33.33% mafia, 16.67% SK. Mafia will not NK the claimant, so it's a 40% chance of SK hitting mafia on NK, and a 20% chance of hitting our FBI agent. We will then lynch the claimant, leaving alive [40%]1+1/2/1, [20%]2/2/1, or [40%]2+1/1/1. That 50% chance of hitting town has a 60% chance of leaving two scum alive, which means SK has to make a 50/50 shot, meaning a 30% chance of guaranteeing our loss. Compare to if they simply wilt and die like they should. We wake the next Day with an investigation 1/6 of overlap, 1/6 investigate SK, 2/3 no overlap, 50% Town NK chance, 33.33% mafia and 16.67% FBI Agent. That's a 5/9 chance for two definite non-SKs. If it's a mafia, then we have another mislynch available, and SK is forced to kill the investigation and hope that he is mafia (else he would be investigated into a corner, even if he hit the other mafia, and hitting the FBI guy is an auto loss if he missed before). If Town, then we would have an (unknown) 75% chance to lynch scum. Even on overlap, that's still 60%. And correctly investigating the SK is obviously great.

Both 75% and 60% chance of hitting scum by simply dying is better than 50% for fake claiming.

 

[Delvro]

A townie claiming mafia will gte them lynched anyway, all it does is give the SK a free kill.

No townie will ever claim mafia.

I disagree. Say Cello claimed mafia by LPM, then we lynched Zim, who flips mafia. Then what?

You'd policy lynch Cello for claiming mafia? Yeah freaking right, because Cello and Zim OBVIOUSLY aren't partners.

THIS is why townies will claim mafia by LPM. Or just some of them, apparently.

 

[Delvro]

BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY LYNCH THE MAFIA CLAIMAINT BASED ON WHO HAS DIED!!!

that's the ENTIRE bases of my argument, Cello, and you totally lost it.

Good God this is getting annoying.

 

[Swiss]

TOWNIES HAVE NO REASON TO CLAIM MAFIA.

Townies will not do so. Ever.

 

[Swiss]

Delv if a townie claims mafia, after we lynch SK they are DEAD. What's to stop EVERY townie claiming mafia, then using this as an excuse later? We're playing to win LONG RUN not just lynch the SK. Townies claiming mafia will give mafia the numbers they NEED to hide in late game.

 

[Delvro]

TOWNIES HAVE NO REASON TO CLAIM MAFIA.

Townies will not do so. Ever.

ase;okjthhal your opinion doesn't matter scum

Like I said, at best it saves town from a freaking mislynch and at WORST it doesn't nothing that wouldn't be done ANYWAY.

Lord I'm ****** right now. Goodnight. Hopefully the rest of the town will see some freaking sense.

 

[Swiss]

Unvote Vote Delv

 

[Cello_Marl]

In all cases, DO NOT LYNCH FBI agent or Mafia claim. Lynch 1st Mafia claim the Day after claim.

Lynch Townie on Day 1, total 50% chance. On Day 2:
If Townie Night Killed (50%) 2+1v2v1, FBI Agent immediately claims. No SK CC will occur, as this would be suicide. Mafia may, but it is unlikely, as they ultimately gain no benefit. Investigation is NOT reflected in the percents, since there is an equal chance it will be mafia as it is to be town [As I said, we actually get better Day odds if we lynch a townie on Day 2 if two townies die on D1/N1. This is because it forces the SK to kill mafia on N2, which means that he cannot kill our FBI Agent]
---->Townie (40%) 1+1v2v1. SK must kill investigation. If mafia, that leaves us at 1+1v1v1. 16.67% odds.
---->Mafia (40%) 2+1v1v1. SK will kill FBI Agent. Leaves us at 2v1v1. 8.33% odds
---->SK (20%) 2+1v2.
If Mafia Night Killed (33.33%), 3+1v1v1. [optimal SK scenario] FBI Agent claims, with investigation if available. No CC will occur.
---->Townie (60%) 2+1v1v1. SK will kill Agent. Investigate is useless against mafia. 11.11% odds.
---->Mafia (20%) 3+1v0v1. SK will kill Agent. Effectively 2+1v0v1. 33.33% odds.
---->SK (20%) 3+1v1v0. 75% odds.
If FBI Agent Night Killed (16.67%) 3v2v1
---->Townie (50%) 2v2v1. SK must kill mafia to survive.
-------->Town NK(50%) Town/SK loss.
-------->Scum NK(50%) Leaves us at 2v1v1. 8.33% town odds
---->Mafia (33.33%) Death is 2v1v1 (Mafia win 12.5%), so Mafia will claim. Retry.
-------->2nd attempt
------------>Townie(60%) 2v2v1. SK must kill mafia (50% maf win). 2v1v1. 8.33% odds (total mafia odds 62.5%)
------------>Mafia(20%) Must lynch both claimants. Town/Mafia loss.
------------>SK(20%) Must lynch, followed by mafia claimant. 3v1, 75% chance of victory (25% mafia)
---->SK (16.67%)3v2. 12.75% odds.
-------->If mafia claim, outs self to mafia. Dead in any case, essentially odds-swinger.
------------>2nd attempt
---------------->Town(60%) 2v2v1
------------------->Town NKed(50%), 1v2v1 Mafia win
------------------->Mafia NKed(50%), 2v1v1, lynch claimed "mafia", 2v1, 33% odds.
---------------->Mafia(40%) 3v1v1
------------------->Town NKed, 2v1v1, lynch claimed "mafia", 2v1, 33% odds.
------------------->Mafia NKed, lynch claimed "mafia", Town victory.
-------->If no claim. 3v2. 12.75% odds.

Choose Mafia for Day 1 lynch, total 25% chance. Branching path:
If mafia claims mafia, try again. (total mafia odds: 16.14%)
-->2nd attempt
---->Townie(57.14%) 3+1v2v1. Assuming that SK does NOT target claimant to maximize his own odds.
------>Townie NKed(60%) 2+1v2v1, Lynch claimant. 2+1v1v1.
-------->Townie NKed(75%) 2v1v1. 8.33% odds.
-------->Mafia NKed(25%) 3v0v1. 25% odds.
-------->FBI Agent NKed(75%) 2v1v1. 8.33% odds.
------>Mafia NKed(20%) 3+1v1v1, Lynch claimant. Everyone "claims" an FBI target. 2+1+"1"v0v1.
-------->Townie NKed(50%) 1+"2"v1. All target "claim", before claim (may out liar). 50% odds.
-------->FBI Agent Clear NKed(25%) 1+1+"1"v1. Regardless of CC, 50% odds.
-------->FBI Agent NKed(25%) Clear's identity known. 2+1v1. 33% odds.
------>FBI Agent NKed(20%) 3v2v1, Lynch claimant. 3v1v1
-------->Townie NKed(75%) 2v1v1. 8.33% odds.
-------->Mafia NKed(25%) 3v0v1. 25% odds.
---->FBI Agent(14.29% - If uncountered, try again. If countered, lynch (no one will).
------>3rd attempt
-------->Townie(66.67%) 3+1v2v1
---------->FBI Agent NK(100%) - 3v2v1.
------------->Mafia (33.33%) Death is 2v1v1 (Mafia win 12.5%), so Mafia will claim. Retry.
---------------->2nd attempt
------------------>Townie(60%) 2v2v1. SK must kill mafia (50% maf win). 2v1v1. 8.33% odds (total mafia odds 62.5%)
------------------>Mafia(20%) Must lynch both claimants. Town/Mafia loss.
-------->Mafia(16.67%) 4+1v1v1
---------->FBI Agent NK(100%) - 4v1v1. Lynch claimant. 3v1. Go no Lynch, unless triple unanimous decision. 2v1. 33% odds.
-------->SK(16.67%)- No Night Kill means 4+1v2. Lynch claimant. 4+1v1. 80% odds.
---->Mafia(14.29%) - Lynch regardless of claim for consistency with SK false claim. SK will not target claimant.
------>Townie NKed(80%) - Lynch claimant. Everyone "claims" an FBI target. 2+1+"1"v0v1.
-------->Townie NKed(50%) 1+"2"v1. All target "claim", before claim (may out liar). 50% odds.
-------->FBI Agent Clear NKed(25%) 1+1+"1"v1. Regardless of CC, 50% odds.
-------->FBI Agent NKed(25%) Clear's identity known. 2+1v1. 33% odds.
------>FBI Agent NKed(20%) - Lynch claimant. 4v1. NK targets Townie. 3v1. No lynch. 2v1. 33% odds.
---->SK(14.29%) - Cannot false claim to survive. May be conflicting allegience report with known scum; unimportant. Lynch 2nd claimant to prevent time waste. 5+1v1 (87.7%). 5v1(80%).
If mafia does not claim mafia, lynch. 4+1v1v1. (Total mafia odds: 14.35%, better for them to claim)

Lynch SK on Day 1, total chance 12.5%. Branching Path:
If SK claims mafia, try again.
-->2nd attempt
---->Townie(57.14%) 3+1v2v1. SK is claimant.
------>Townie NKed(50%) 2+1v2v1, Lynch claimant. 2+1v2v0. 33.33% odds.
------>Mafia NKed(33.33%) 3+1v1v1, Lynch claimant. All "claims" an FBI target. 2+1+"1"v1v0. Investigation useless. 75% odds.
------>FBI Agent NKed(16.67%) 3v2v1, Lynch claimant. 3v2 25% town odds.
---->FBI Agent(14.29% - If uncountered, try again. If countered, lynch (no one will).
------>3rd attempt
-------->Townie(66.67%) 3+1v2v1
---------->FBI Agent NK(100%) - 3v2v1. Lynch claimant. 3v2 25% town odds.
-------->Mafia(33.33%) 4+1v1v1
---------->FBI Agent NK(100%) - 4v1v1. Lynch claimant. 4v1. 60% odds.
---->Mafia(28.57%) - Lynch regardless of claim for consistency with SK false claim. 4+1v1v1
------>Townie NKed(66.67%) - Lynch claimant. Everyone "claims" an FBI target. 2+1+"1"v1v0. Useless, 75% odds
------>Mafia NKed(16.67%) - Lynch claimant, town wins.
------>FBI Agent NKed(16.67%) - Lynch claimant. 4v1. 60% odds.
If SK simply wilts and dies, 4+1v2. 40% town odds.

Choose FBI Agent for Day 1 lynch, total 12.5% chance. Retry.
-->2nd attempt
---->Townie(57.14%) 3+1v2v1.
------>FBI Agent NKed(100%) 3v2v1
-------->Townie(50%) 2v2v1
---------->Townie NKed(50%) Town/SK loss
---------->Mafia NKed(50%) 2v1v1. Must lynch SK, then mafia, 8.33% odds
-------->Mafia(33.33%) 3v1v1
---------->Townie NKed(75%) 2v1v1. Must lynch SK, then mafia, 8.33% odds
---------->Mafia NKed(25%) 3v1. No Lynch. If No Kill is viable, 25% town odds, otherwise 33.33%
-------->SK(16.67%) 3v2, 25% town odds
---->SK(14.29%) 3+1v2v0 37.5% town odds
---->Mafia(28.57%) 4+1v1v1
------>FBI Agent NKed(100%) 4v1v1
-------->Townie(66.67%) 3v1v1
---------->Townie NKed(75%) 2v1v1. Must lynch SK, then mafia, 8.33% odds
---------->Mafia(25%) 3v1. No Lynch. If No Kill is viable, 25% town odds, otherwise 33.33%
-------->Mafia(16.67%) 4v0v1.
---------->Townie NKed(100%) 3v1. No Lynch. If No Kill is viable, 25% town odds, otherwise 33.33%
-------->SK(16.67%) 4v1, 60% town odds

 

[Cello_Marl]

@Swiss: What do you believe Delvro's alignment is? Why do you believe that he would be willing to argue with false statistics as scum, but that Zim would not?

 

[Delvro]

What's to stop EVERY townie claiming mafia, then using this as an excuse later?

EXACTLY!!! This is why we SHOULDN'T do LPM!!

NOT that townies shouldn't claim Mafia under LPM

-______________- duh

 

[Cello_Marl]

@Delvro: I've shown you how, under LPM, townies false-claiming LOWERS their faction's ability to win. Choosing to NOT lynch a mafia-claimant is NOT an option under LPM. Suggesting that it is isn't following LPM. What's so hard to understand about "If you claim mafia, you will die"?

 

[Swiss]

Delv is mafia, what he wants isn't pro indie.

Zim's reaction screams mad townie. Delv's does not, it's like a recycled version.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Me, you, and Zim, and we can assume Delvro is mafia since he's basically said he's claiming mafia if we choose to lynch him.

I'm still thinking Sho-Minamimoto is suspicious for not even answering his prod, and simply watching the whole Zim/Cello exchange. You think partner or SK? If SK, who is Delvro's partner?

 

[Swiss]

Partner, avoided opportunities to get involved with SK talk.

If SK, Afro - with X1 as a float depending on posts.

 

[vanderzant]

I am Zim has requested replacement, going to contact Ryker now.