TWEWY Mafia | scumbags victorious

[Delvro]

Sho? What has Sho done that's scummy? Why not Swiss?

 

[vanderzant]

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch!

I am Zim!: (3) Cello_Marl, Swiss, Delvro
Not voting: (5) I am Zim!, X1-12, Sho-Minamimoto, BSL, Afro Horse

A deadline has been set for Midnight on the 12th Feb EST (10am AEST). That's just over 7 Days!

Mod note: X1-12 is V/LA until Sunday the 6th of Feb.

 

[Cello_Marl]

@Delvro: I don't really care too deeply about either of them for the moment. I could see Swiss as mafia, but I don't want to discount X1 entirely simply because he just hasn't been here.

Anyway, Zim, you are at L-2 with anti-town in the game that would definitely love to see you dead regardless of your faction. If I were you, I'd claim to speed this along. But, if you would like to be difficult, then let's go ahead with putting you at L-1. Dangerous, dangerous L-1.

@Everyone else: DO NOT put Zim at L-1. Simply declare your desire/intent to do so. We will accept that as L-1.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Someone else: "That flowerbed looks really pretty."

Cello: "Yeah, the sky IS blue."

 

[Swiss]

Hey, Cello. My maths WAS right. Get in.

Delv I was far too busy playing backyard monsters (great facebook game) to post here. But ofc being SK I'll add in pseudo content later so I don't get lynched.

This game has had almost no content. Fail to see why SK Zim would stick by his maths like that when he KNOWS what you're like, he'd have backed off when his gambit failed.

We aren't playing mafia here, and unless we start doing so I'll be replacing out, no disrespect to nay players. I didn't sign up for a game of maths.

 

[I am Zim!]

Ahaha! Finally all caught up. *Brofists self* Omnibro you're quite right Cello is scum and it's horribly obvious haha. Now I see what Swiss was talking about in NBC. Cello your scum play is just horrible. I've found 3 contradictions in your supposed thought process plus what you're proposing is the absolute worse strategy for town.

(btw on wiinet and multi-quoted some others so this post may be a bit messy.)

The main points about Cello before I go through the posts:

1.
-Cello calls Omni out for wanting to get scum trails. He says that he feels this is not the way town should talk. (btw Cello, Omni is pro at SK. He got his gold jugs from SK. You think you can deduct him as SK from wording things like that you're wrong. We'd def be on your town list. Town Omni is reckless activist like myself; therefore, we are town).
-Cello then says in a folliwing post that Omni is focusing too much on catching the SK and that we need to worry about catching scum too!

Cello doesn't truly believe Omni to be scum because this is a disconnected thought process. This shows to me that Cello is simply trying to put target on us with any reason he can even if the reasons don't match up logically. He simple is reaching for any reason he can grasp on.
[]You're trying to catch the mafia, you're not town.
[]You're trying to catch the SK, you're not town.

Yeeeeah- No. If anything this is more of a town tell since we are trying to catch both haha.
2. Furthermore, after Cello calls Omni out for initially focusing indy-hunting, Cello later states himself that we should primarily be focusing on catching the indy. lolwut, calling someone scum for something you agree with?

:D

3. Cello states in one post that it would be terrible to get in a situation where SK is catching scum. In a later post, he contradicts that belief and states that such a case is to towns benefit.

4. Cello is taking the town down the absolutely worse path. I agree and disagree with my counter-self's ideal on the game path we should take. In my factualopinion, from best to worse on how the day should be played:

1.) No Lynch at the very beginning with no info for indy. This was proposed by Delvro early on and definitely would have been the best choice of play. I originally would have probably been more sided with Omni in that info was more important, but after looking at the numbers, this would have been our best option. Unfortunately it is too late for that now so now we move onto the second best which is to fully utilize the day and go with either of the two following options.

2.) Lynch if there is a strong case built up and much info to go off. If not much certainty in anti-town flip, then no lynch.

I currently feel like the first of the two is best, looking at Cello's play. I really do not think he is on the town's side, plus he has already claimed not FBI like a dumb*** (something that is only adventageous to scum btw). Omni's point about no lynching after gaining info is still viable however, and Cello is a ****** for thinkinb it not so. The info increases SK's chance for not hitting scum, but it also INCREASES FBI's CHANCE OF HITTING SK as well as keeping an extra townie in the probability as opposed to a mislynch.

3.) Lynching with uncertanty; mislynching. As has been shown, a mislynch puts us in a pretty bad position with a town NK.

4.) Randomly lynching; mislynch/ Cello's path. Cello is propising to lynch us, Zim, based off of nothing but BS. He has made little of a case and wants the lynchbti be set in just a couple of days. This is the most horrible play I've ever seen by Cello, and this pretty much would pretty much put town in a ****hole. Not only does it have the same disadvantage as #3 but Cello also wants to limit the info by doing this. Right now, indy can make a pretty informed kill. FBI however is not as fortunate. It's eaier for scum to sniff out PRs than for town to catch Indies. FBI and town are benefited more from utilizing the day and gaining as much info as we can. Cello's play right now is completely anti-town and takes away from any advantages town has in the other scenarios. Cello is a smart dude and I know he wouldn't be proposing this bs as town.

Now for the posts:

SK vs FBI.

But obv SK has to shoot a mafiat as soon as possible too.

Vote No Lynch

This is deffo the best way to go about it.

Why did you simply agree to this if you hadn't even thought through? More precisely, what made you agree to it at this time?

If we start lynching and 'playing properly' D2 then we will effectively BE in D1 just with one less players who will probably be town. 2/7 SK kills scum, 1/7 FBI and 4/7 VT. Assuming FBI doesn't magically get it right.

We are not No Lynching. Statistically all that will happen is that we'll go into D2 with one less townie and one townie known by one player to not be SK.

If we somehow strike lucky on the FBI investigation then whoop dee doo, but other than that it is BAD. We cannot play the numbers with no reads.


There. That's my actual, reasoned stance. Sure that's right.

I'd vote Delv but Cello would call me inde for it.

Nah dude, no lynching is beneficial because we may end up in the same position, but we get more by the time we get there.

How are we 'possibly' in MyLo now?

Seriously I have a degree in Economics and cannot fathom how your maths makes sense.

Do you really?? I'm just curious at this haha.

yes, Swiss, but basically it's almost mylo either way

but it's better to be mylo D2 then mylo D1 so investigator can have an extra clear + with more people in the pool the chances of SK targeting investigator toNight is more slim

also there would be 0% chance of us accidentally pushing our investigator to a lynch toDay

^^^

You know what would be awesome? X1 and Afro Horse not getting prodded to death. And to a lesser extent (though not by much, really) Sho-Minamimoto.

Anyway, Omni, the biggest problem with your analysis is that the SK isn't going to be killing randomly. He is going to be killing based on information available.

If we spend the Day collecting information then No Lynching, then all that does is allow the SK to AVOID killing mafia during the Night and PUSH for their lynch during the Day. And THAT, is abso-freakin-lutely terrible. That you would suggest that is...

Unvote Vote Zim

That you would suggest this...what? Finish the sentece. Cmon you can do it!

This is the post relating to my #3 point on Cellio. You're saying here how terrible it would be here for SK to help us catch scum, yet later you put it in a part of your plan to FORCE SK into helping us catch scum and pose it as a benefit. You're just saying crap this game.

ohhiitsx1hix1lolol.

tl;dr I forgot that X1 was V/LA, then laughed. Then laughed again at the tl;dr being longer than the message.

omgLOLOLOL

:/

Avsolutely no point in posting this.

You keep saying stuff that sounds good but doesn't actually do us any good. You talk about paper trails connecting mafia, but that sounds like SK talk to me. Mafia's only good chance for success is for both of them to remain alive with at least one mislynch and town kill. A single mafia



Blah, blah, blah, percents, percents, percents. And those percents just get WORSE for town the more that we talk, since SK can IGNORE the people we believe to be connected as potential mafia. Which is the very sort of information that you want us to bring forth. And then go No Lynch.

You aren't thinking about this like Town. You're only concern is the SK; but after the SK, we still have to worry about the mafia, remember? Simply letting someone die (probably town if we line up the mafia, derp) means that we down a full mislynch once we eliminate the SK.



This is essentially correct. YOU want to find "mafia paper trails" after all since SK won't leave ally-based trails. Whom the SK can then avoid killing. Your strategy does nothing but support the SK.

I'm not No Lynching. If it happens, then it happens because scum wants it to.

This is the post I am refering to in point #1. You contradict thought process in the same post! Calling him mafia for wanting to catch indy, and calling him indy for wanting to catch mafia. This is not town trying to call someone out on scummy actions. This is scum trying to paint someone in a bad light with whatever they get.

Screw it. No lynch is dumb at this point.

Swiss is flip-flopped from "no lynch is deff the best choice" to "I don't care" to "I don't see what good a NL does" all in one page. He's also playing dumb in a lot of different ways. Swiss isn't dumb -- it's a facade.

Vote: Swiss

Zim is making a lot of mechanics and percentage arguments, but I have as well -- I don't see how I can blame him for that.

Noting this for later.

Further, if we lynch, then SK has incentive to help us, both with scum hunting AND through his Night Kill.
Mislynch/town kill, mislynch/town kill is a mafia win.
Mislynch/town kill, mislynch/mafia kill and Mislynch/town kill, mafia lynch/town kill keep us, and the SK, in the game.
With a No Lynch, we lose that, since SK has no incentive to help us to maintain enough numbers against the mafia. Instead, his focus is trying to kill our FBI guy, since we MUST have done the work for him to live (else our numbers dip too low to win).

This is the other post regarding point #3. Earlier you stated that it would be terrible having indy on the scum catching side, but here you are speaking of it as a benefit.

BSL, vote for Zim.



That's NOT our goal! Our goal is to win; the optimal to accomplish that is to eliminate the SK first, then the mafia. Reducing risk to our FBI agent doesn't help us accomplish that.



Then why sacrifice that body to a needless NK?



Then knowing that, why are you supporting double NL/double investigate? THAT is the very situation that forces the SK into a corner. Besides, only the first investigation would be of use; even a successful 2nd investigation would be tainted and useless, since 2v2v1 means we couldn't kill the SK anyway.

This post is what I'm referencing in point #2. Here you directly state that we should be trying to eliminate the SK first, yet you get on Omni's *** earlier for this focus. This adds to the fact that you're simply trying to call us scum from anything, and your contradiction shows this.

BSL, Zim is the SK. Put your vote on him, please. Your earlier hesitation is a town tell. Good. Do it.

Tell me, since hesitation is a town tell, what does that make Swiss?

Don't you love it when a standard open set-up mafia game turns to a battle of math which hurts my head also the fact that the math impaired can see the points are wrong just screams not to follow it.

What happened to scum hunting?

Join us.

...dude, are you okay? are you on drugs or something? what are you talking about anymore. you say don't guess who the SK is but you're... pegging me as SK now so you're not sure if I'm SK? you lost me like on page 1

i think it might be best just to ignore Cello for a while.

This. The last 8 posts or so, Cello has made little sense, avoiding the main points, and bein a full out tard.

@Zim:

But, the player's name is Minamimoto, not Miniamoto. The character is Miniamoto (according to Vand).

That would explain why you thought I was referring to the player when I said Sho-Minamimoto. But, why wouldn't you call me out earlier for acting dumb/******** when I said "Why shouldn't we believe Sho-Minamimoto is Sho-Minamimoto"?

But you didn't. You waited until my messed up math to say that. THAT makes it seem like you knew what I was talking about when I was talking about his name. But...how could that be if you JUST NOW read the opening flavor, unless you ARE Miniamoto?

What the heck are you saying?

Wtf.... Double No Lynch? You mean like what they did in Dgames road trip? NO!!!

Unvote Vote: Zim

Is this your only reson for voting us? You really thinks this makes us scum? What happened to that strong Swiss read (See noted post above). You go from "No Lynch or you're dumb" to "Lynch Swiss! Zim aint really scummy" to " Zim lynch, he uses logic. ". This vote is almost as bad as Cello's entire play, like what are you even thinking, seriously? A double no lynch a long with 2 town NKs puts town in the exact same position D3 as ONE mislynch & ONE town NK would by D2. lolhurrdurr

Someone else: "That flowerbed looks really pretty."

Cello: "Yeah, the sky IS blue."

Quoted for multi-quote.

The contradictions Cello has made are too much to think he is town. I don't see any town motivation in his posts and he is pushing town in a horible direction. Both halves of this hydra think that Cello is likely scum. I would be up for a Cello lynch, but must confer with my counter-self before voting.

btw the most distinction you'll probably get from our posts is that Omni tends to type in a lower case which is difficult for me to do out of habit haha. So capitalized posts with a bunch of spelling mistskes and typos is likely Zen, and uncapitalized posts with correct spelling is likely Omni. Not definite though. You can pretty much treat us as one.

 

[I am Zim!]

Also Swiss why Cello think you're indy for voting Delvro? Can you explain that. I do realize it probably wasn't fully serious, but I don't get the joke either.

Afro: In one post you said indy can't kill scum at 3v2v1 or something. This isn't true. Indy lives until he is lynched. He doesn't require scum help, he simply has to blend in to win.

 

[I am Zim!]

why would Cello*

 

[Swiss]

When Cello is town (which he is FYI, unless he's SK...so not scum o_O) he always calls me scum or indie until I die or mechanically prove myself as town, dat Oddworld. Also Cello said he could see me as scum, not indie, so he definitely isn't scum - he'd know that would be a 'mislynch' in his eyes.

It doesn't really matter though. Because if Cello or me is alive by D3, we are pretty much confirmed SK (WIFOM plz).

I'm not really considering replacing out now. I failed to spot this game has actually started now when I skimmed read this morning.


wrt your questions:
Bait
Maths
Yeah >_>


Not read rest of post.

 

[BSL]

i dont understand how Zim's lack of comment on your confusing question makes him the SK. i mean.. only Sho and I commented on it.

Zim, your #2 and #3 are the same thing. ive noticed you are trying to overplay Cello's contradictions and stuff, and this is a good example of it.

 

[Cello_Marl]

@Zen: When was the first time that you viewed this thread? Is #126 your first post?

Yeeeeah- No. If anything this is more of a town tell since we are trying to catch both haha.

Oh, of course. Because scum never tries to pretend to be town. I can't believe I misunderstood that this whole time. Although, interestingly, you DO actually have a point (that you didn't actually make), in that people that focus on catching the more "dangerous" SK are more likely to be mafia. I'm surprised you never said that as a point against me, really.

Furthermore, after Cello calls Omni out for initially focusing indy-hunting, Cello later states himself that we should primarily be focusing on catching the indy. lolwut, calling someone scum for something you agree with?

Our objectives are NOT the same. Omni is interested in protecting the FBI agent, mine is in destroying the SK. Even if you consider those the same goal, it can still be considered the tactics we use to effect our strategy.

And so, I'm not calling Omni out on indy-hunting, I'm calling him out on inefficiency. This is the same as what happened in Tree Stump, when tHe-Man wanted to modify my system and stump an arbitrary number of people before lynching, rather than stumping anyone and everyone that we needed to until we found scum. My suggestion prevented Mafia Night Kills until we lynched scum. His suggestion allowed the possibility that we lynch town, then allow mafia to get a Night Kill on top of that. His system was objectively worse for Town.

The same idea applies here. Double No Lynch is less effective than Lynch Pardon Mafia. Omni refuses to even address the issue. How is his method, which he should realize is objectively weaker, the same as mine? It is not. (Aside for Swiss: Town doesn't yet realize as a whole that LPM is better than DNL, so that's why Zim is comfortable in their current position)

3. Cello states in one post that it would be terrible to get in a situation where SK is catching scum. In a later post, he contradicts that belief and states that such a case is to towns benefit.

I made those two statements, yes. The former situation began TODAY, in which an SK can promote his towniness proactively by virtue of pushing lynches against the mafia, while focusing on killing town with his Night Kill. The latter situation is when we go into mylo/lylo, when forcing SK's optimal strategy to be to aid town with his Night Kill rather than mafia is objectively better (accomplished by Lynch rather than No Lynch). He can't gain town points for using his NIGHT KILL to aid us. These statements are not mutually exclusive, and so not contradictory.


Zen, so I take it you disagree with Double No Lynch? What is your personal opinion of Lynch Pardon Mafia?

I currently feel like the first of the two is best, looking at Cello's play. I really do not think he is on the town's side, plus he has already claimed not FBI like a dumb*** (something that is only adventageous to scum btw). Omni's point about no lynching after gaining info is still viable however, and Cello is a ****** for thinkinb it not so. The info increases SK's chance for not hitting scum, but it also INCREASES FBI's CHANCE OF HITTING SK as well as keeping an extra townie in the probability as opposed to a mislynch.

That was unintentional. After all, I'm not really thinking about concealing all of my statements like you seem to be. But, do you really think a slip like makes me non-town?

More importantly, look at the bold section above. You admit that information gathering makes it more likely for the SK to miss scum...but doesn't that by it's very nature INCREASE the chance of hitting the FBI agent? Doesn't that run completely counter to your strategy of FBI-investigations, especially since, at this point, the SK can discount me? If we figure out who the two mafia are (or even not; considering two townies or 1 mafia/1 town as the mafia team still discounts them from the pool, and FBI guy will be forced to claim before we lynch him), then that means SK has a 25% then 33% chance TO KILL OUR FBI GUY.

Randomly lynching; mislynch/ Cello's path.

Bull****. There's nothing random about my knowing you are the SK. My above point that your ideas make SK about 4 times more likely to kill our FBI guy is more than enough proof of that, since you appear to have taken the time to consider the ramifications of what has transpired, yet insist on your bull**** path.

Tell me, since hesitation is a town tell, what does that make Swiss?

Town. Thanks for pointing that out, I might have missed it on a reread. (Not that it would have mattered, it was something else that changed my mind)

You (Delvro) go from "No Lynch or you're dumb" to "Lynch Swiss! Zim aint really scummy" to " Zim lynch, he uses logic.

Delvro still probably supports No Lynch (for some reason). What he doesn't approve of is Double No Lynch, which is what your partner supports.

 

[Swiss]

Afro where are you? What do you think of Zim and Cello's case on him?

Cello is probably town. Zim town. Delv townienull. Afro's hidden behind numbers, DH when you post, post in red/blue like always. BSL suddenly has balls - BSL I said this about you once before, where was it and what alignment were you? You're that again. Shio you say you want scumhunting to happen yet offer no actual attempt to do so - why?

Unvote Vote Afro

I feel like I should be using more emoticons than usual in this game.

 

[Cello_Marl]

EBWOP: ...SK about 4 times more likely to kill our FBI guy than our FBI guy is to successfully investigate the SK and report the results in time is more than enough proof of...

 

[Cello_Marl]

Zim isn't Town, Swiss. Why do you believe that he is?

 

[Swiss]

I love how pathetic my content looks after Cello's.

Cello, if Zim were indie, he would have made sure he was playing the numbers. There is no reason for a SK to put himself in the firing line.

 

[Swiss]

That one reason is sufficient to counter most of what you said.

Also, when you say Zim 'isn't town', are you implying he could be mafia? Does your reasoning for him being anti-town stand with ScumZim as well as IndieZim?

 

[Delvro]

Is this your only reson for voting us? You really thinks this makes us scum? What happened to that strong Swiss read (See noted post above).

No Lynch is not a good option anymore. I have town reads at this point. You probably have town reads, too. Well, so does the SK.

Regardless, how could you ever in a million years, as a TOWNIE, suggest a double no lynch?? The insanity of it astounds me. The premise of your double no lynch idea is that we want the FBI agent to survive as long as possible. Two things make this completely ridiculous:
A) A townie's life is not worth a single investigation
B) The FBI agent STILL has a fairly high chance to die

...wouldn't any normal townie consider these things?

Regardless, if you are town, you should have your vote on Swiss.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Zim is the SK, not mafia. I said "Zim isn't Town" because you said "Zim Town". Zim isn't interested in steering us toward an easy target (which would be what mafia would do in this set-up).

Cello, if Zim were indie, he would have made sure he was playing the numbers. There is no reason for a SK to put himself in the firing line.

He's trying to present his theory of Double Lynch as better than No Lynch and Lynch, in that it provides the greatest chance that the FBI agent will survive. They actually BELIEVE that this is for the best course of action. He simply has not addressed Lynch Pardon Mafia yet, a major point in my suspicion of him and one that simply continues to grow with each passing moment.

Suggesting that SKs as a whole would not act the way that YOU would act as an SK is foolish. Omni/Zen are going to act according to their personalities, and may not have number crunched every single possibility. Again, look at Tree Stump. Theoretically, even mafia should have supported my idea, because it was objectively better. tHe-Man did not. He thought that he could pull the wool over the eyes over the town; if the town BELIEVES that a given course of action is statistically the best, then scum can urge town along that path. Zim has tried to do that, by "supporting" the FBI guy.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Ninja'd, above is @Swiss.

 

[Swiss]

His reaction was town. Why attempt to pull an indie gambit like this? What gain is there? Does Omni really think he can power through such a blatant plan?

Tell me why I'm not convinced. Something in this game is hollow.

 

[I am Zim!]

i dont understand how Zim's lack of comment on your confusing question makes him the SK. i mean.. only Sho and I commented on it.

Zim, your #2 and #3 are the same thing. ive noticed you are trying to overplay Cello's contradictions and stuff, and this is a good example of it.

I think I copied down the wrong thing. I know I had another point there, hold up.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Afro Horse, are you still convinced that Zim is scum? Put him at L-1 so he'll claim.

@Zim: Why aren't you discussing which of Double No Lynch and Lynch Pardon Scum is better? Have you abandoned Double No Lynch?

@Swiss: No Lynch LOOKS better at a glance. We're at an even number of players, so it puts us at odd with an investigation under our belt. He THOUGHT that he was pursuing the best course of action. When shown to be wrong, he brought up DOUBLE No Lynch. Their GAIN is that they THINK each plan they come up with is the best, at the time that they think of it. The problem is, now that Lynch Pardon Scum is in play, they DON'T want to pursue it. They are taking their time to probe for possible weaknesses. If it were being discussed publicly, they may appear to be doubtful and actively TRYING to probe for weakness in the LPS plan.

Think about it. What would you have thought of someone that suggested that we lynch with an even number of people, and if we choose to lynch someone that claims mafia, we then CHOOSE TO NOT LYNCH SCUM. That sounds crazy. Indy wouldn't even THINK about exploring the possibilities of something so controversial, so they would never realize that it is the best plan.

 

[Swiss]

Delv, do you fully agree with what Cello's saying wrt Zim?

@ Cello - K. Pseudo supporter for now, he can claim but don't hammer without my AOK.

 

[Afro Horse]

Nabe head here. Gonna go ahead and shoot my load -- Delv and Swiss are mafia, Zim is likely indy. Is the kid at L-1? L-2 is fine regardless, claim dat ****.

Cello -- have you dropped the name issue with Miniamoto v. Minamimoto? Haven't seen a post re: that in a little while when it seems to me that's a pretty important point? Are you letting it slide?

 

[Cello_Marl]

@Afro Horse: It's not being accepted as an important point. There is other material available that is more readily digestible, and somehow people believe that a point they do NOT agree with somehow reduces the validity of other points made.

About your choices, I agree 100% and have for some time. I just didn't really want to risk losing Delvro's vote.

@Zim: There you have it. Effectively L-1. Claim if you're mafia or FBI. Otherwise, die.

 

[Cello_Marl]

EBWOP: ...agree 100% that Delvro is mafia...

Not entirely sure about Swiss, but he's still certainly viable.

 

[Swiss]

Delv you think I'm scum because of my intro posts. That's a null tell, I was busy with more important stuff. Call it a town tell anyway. Goddamn.

If it really matters check Chisa's facebook, we've been playing Backyard Monsters together, you could even find my attack logs. Nabe is a ******.

 

[I am Zim!]

OK bsl:

#2 is saying that Cello called us out for indy-hunting, but then says later that indy-hunting is the best option.

#3 is saying that he sees indy catching scum was bad for town, but later sees that indy catching scum is good.

So no, they aren't the same. I'm not overplaying Celoo's contradictions, Cello is overly playing contradictory.

@Zen: When was the first time that you viewed this thread? Is #126 your first post?

I've been skimming it whenever I have gotten the chance. Last night was the first I actually head time to really read and yes that was my first post.

Oh, of course. Because scum never tries to pretend to be town. I can't believe I misunderstood that this whole time. Although, interestingly, you DO actually have a point (that you didn't actually make), in that people that focus on catching the more "dangerous" SK are more likely to be mafia. I'm surprised you never said that as a point against me, really.

So then you agree that we were looking at both things, thus playing town as opposed to your reasons for thinking we were scum by just looking for one faction? The answer is yes.

Our objectives are NOT the same. Omni is interested in protecting the FBI agent, mine is in destroying the SK. Even if you consider those the same goal, it can still be considered the tactics we use to effect our strategy.

The objectives are the same. FBI living, increases the chance of catching SK. However, the fact that you guys have a different perspective on this is not the concern.

You explicityly stated that you felt Omni was too focused on SK:

":You aren't thinking about this like Town. You're only concern is the SK; but after the SK, we still have to worry about the mafia, remember?"

Then you later state that we should be focusing on the SK:

"That's NOT our goal! Our goal is to win; the optimal to accomplish that is to eliminate the SK first, then the mafia."

bsl read this. I want your analysis on this entire case since supposedly you feel I'm over playing his contradictions.

And so, I'm not calling Omni out on indy-hunting, I'm calling him out on inefficiency. This is the same as what happened in Tree Stump, when tHe-Man wanted to modify my system and stump an arbitrary number of people before lynching, rather than stumping anyone and everyone that we needed to until we found scum. My suggestion prevented Mafia Night Kills until we lynched scum. His suggestion allowed the possibility that we lynch town, then allow mafia to get a Night Kill on top of that. His system was objectively worse for Town.

The same idea applies here. Double No Lynch is less effective than Lynch Pardon Mafia. Omni refuses to even address the issue. How is his method, which he should realize is objectively weaker, the same as mine? It is not. (Aside for Swiss: Town doesn't yet realize as a whole that LPM is better than DNL, so that's why Zim is comfortable in their current position)

I assume Lynch Pardon Mafia means a mislynch?

[U]LPM[/U]
D1:  5 v 2 v 1                                                      5 v 2 v 1       
N1:  4 v 2 v 1                                                      4 v  2 v 1
D2:  3 v 2 v 1                                                      3 v 1 v 1
N2:  2 v2 v 1                                                       2 v 1 v 1 (Town/SK lose if SK shoots town)
D3:  2 v 1 v 1 or lose (must lynch SK)                              2 v 1 or lose
     (mislynch; town NK n1)                                  (mislynch; scum NK n1)
        

[U]DNL[/U]
D1: 5 v 2 v 1                                                       5 v 2 v 1
N1: 5 v 2 v 1                                                       5 v 2 v 1
D2: 4 v 2 v 1                                                       5 v 1 v 1 
N2: 4 v 2 v 1                                                       5 v 1 v 1
D3: 3 v 2 v 1                                                       4 v 1 v 1
N3: 2 v 2 v 1                                                       3 v 1 v 1
D4: 2 v 1 v 1 or lose due to town hit.                              etc.
   (Town NK n1 and n2)                                      (Scum NK n1)

As you see, there really is no problem with a DNL. D2 of LPS and D3 of DNL are the exact same scenarios, only FBI has a greater live possibility thus more investigations and more info for town to make the best lynch choice D4. With a scum NK n1 on a no lynch path even more possiblities open up. I ran the scenario of a DNL with a scum NK N1, but I think town would definitely be in a great position to lynch D2 if things were to play out in such a way. DNL and SNL provide much benefit for town, and for you and Delvro to call us scum for thinking it a good scenario is hupingshnagif.

I made those two statements, yes. The former situation began TODAY, in which an SK can promote his towniness proactively by virtue of pushing lynches against the mafia, while focusing on killing town with his Night Kill. The latter situation is when we go into mylo/lylo, when forcing SK's optimal strategy to be to aid town with his Night Kill rather than mafia is objectively better (accomplished by Lynch rather than No Lynch). He can't gain town points for using his NIGHT KILL to aid us. These statements are not mutually exclusive, and so not contradictory.

This is fine and the answer I was hoping for.

Zen, so I take it you disagree with Double No Lynch? What is your personal opinion of Lynch Pardon Mafia?

I don't disagree with a DNL. I'm more sided with lynching someone if we have enough evidence to make a solid lynch though. But either lynching or no lynching are paths I'm willing to take.

That was unintentional. After all, I'm not really thinking about concealing all of my statements like you seem to be. But, do you really think a slip like makes me non-town?

It's part of a towns duty. You're just a bad player and very egocentric so I wouldn't really expect you to understand if you were town, so not it doesn't determine you as scum. But since you are likely scum regardless.

More importantly, look at the bold section above. You admit that information gathering makes it more likely for the SK to miss scum...but doesn't that by it's very nature INCREASE the chance of hitting the FBI agent? Doesn't that run completely counter to your strategy of FBI-investigations, especially since, at this point, the SK can discount me? If we figure out who the two mafia are (or even not; considering two townies or 1 mafia/1 town as the mafia team still discounts them from the pool, and FBI guy will be forced to claim before we lynch him), then that means SK has a 25% then 33% chance TO KILL OUR FBI GUY.

Info increases his chance of not hitting scum. Info is already out there; therefore, he has increase of not hitting scum. However, the more town players there are, the less chance there is for him hitting FBI, so a no lynch could be a possible favor even though information is already out.

I disagree with Omni that we should just automatically no lynch. I think we need to decide at the end of the day. If we don't have a solid case then I would favor a no lynch; however, atm I feel we can catch scum today.

Bull****. There's nothing random about my knowing you are the SK. My above point that your ideas make SK about 4 times more likely to kill our FBI guy is more than enough proof of that, since you appear to have taken the time to consider the ramifications of what has transpired, yet insist on your bull**** path.

Cello it is random. You have no case. Your want to lynch us based on a different perspective on how the game should be played. You're disregarding the intentions of our posts which are town. Your random mislynch favors anti-town more than our scenarios give little boosts to SK (which is just a bi-product of boosting town. The net result is town favor).

Town. Thanks for pointing that out, I might have missed it on a reread. (Not that it would have mattered, it was something else that changed my mind)

Swiss didn't hesitate. He simply voted.

Delvro still probably supports No Lynch (for some reason). What he doesn't approve of is Double No Lynch, which is what your partner supports.

He doesn't support a no lynch.

No Lynch is not a good option anymore. I have town reads at this point. You probably have town reads, too. Well, so does the SK.

Regardless, how could you ever in a million years, as a TOWNIE, suggest a double no lynch?? The insanity of it astounds me. The premise of your double no lynch idea is that we want the FBI agent to survive as long as possible. Two things make this completely ridiculous:
A) A townie's life is not worth a single investigation
B) The FBI agent STILL has a fairly high chance to die

...wouldn't any normal townie consider these things?

Regardless, if you are town, you should have your vote on Swiss.

Reply to the rest of my post.

Why have you changed your views so drastically? Do you think Omni's DNL proposal is scummier than Swiss' actions? No? Then why are you voting us? I've shown why DNL is in no way detrimental. And you're vote on me is unwarranted based on your said beliefs and previous actions.

Why do you not think Cello is scum? Do you not agree with any of my case? Can you tell me explicityly why you disagree with what you do?

 

[I am Zim!]

Nabe head here. Gonna go ahead and shoot my load -- Delv and Swiss are mafia, Zim is likely indy. Is the kid at L-1? L-2 is fine regardless, claim dat ****.

Cello -- have you dropped the name issue with Miniamoto v. Minamimoto? Haven't seen a post re: that in a little while when it seems to me that's a pretty important point? Are you letting it slide?

I could see Delv-Swiss. Why do you think us to be indy however? Swiss is pretty much right in why we aren't indy. To make such a gambit would be ********. Omni and I are not ********; therefore, we are not making such a gambit. Omni is a PRO SK. It's how he got his gold jugs (See Mario Kart). He wouldn't play like this as SK, we would be blending in the background if we were scum. Probably play like FBI if we were SK. Our meta is fact. Cello you should know I'm town simply for the fact that I oppose you. You think I'm going to break the fact that I will never oppose you as scum for a small game like this? No. You should know with fact that I'm town. +5 facts.

 

[vanderzant]

With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch!

I am Zim!: (2) Cello_Marl, Delvro
Afro Horse: (1) Swiss
Not voting: (5) I am Zim!, X1-12, Sho-Minamimoto, BSL, Afro Horse

A deadline has been set for Midnight on the 12th Feb EST (10am AEST). That's about 7 Days!

Prods: None yet

Mod note: X1-12 is V/LA until Sunday the 6th of Feb.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Interesting. While writing out a response to Zim (not quite done yet), I found out that it is mathematically in Town's interest to lynch a townie over a mafia on D2 if we don't catch scum on Day 1.

 

[Omni]

B) The FBI agent STILL has a fairly high chance to die

...wouldn't any normal townie consider these things?

how much did you skim, Delvro? i specifically said

D1: 12%
D2: 14%

those are FBI's chances of dying. stop spitting out fluff.

your second line is also smelly. are you talking to me? or are you trying to persuade everyone else? seems like an indirect way to justify your reasoning on starting to lynch me. didn't earlier you say something to the extent of "i couldn't lynch Zim over his own math cuz i did the same"

Cello Marl is playing the worst game I've ever seen out of anyone. He better BETTER be scum/SK for his own sake as a reputation of a mafia player.

more importantly

riding on the cello marl train of death is very, very opportunistic of scum. ive been playing mafia for a long time and the fact that someone as horrible as cello (regarding how he is playing this game) can dictate and sway some of you (DELVRO and to an earlier extent Swiss) was disgusting

and im not even going to get started with people already claiming to know who SK is when we have some players who have not even posted (X) or some who have barely posted (Sho).

zen will probably taking the lead moreso now because i've never been so irritated in a mafia game like this before. but i will call out people on bogus points if i find it

so

@Delvro: care to explain your opportunistic change of attitude towards us?

btw i like BSL


@Cello: oh, your math is off again. big surprise there

 

[Omni]

reread our posts, Zen. didnt notice that you hit the same point up with Delvro. *brofist*

Vote: Delvro

 

[Omni]

ugh, my bad. forgot i was on this account :o

 

[Cello_Marl]

I've been skimming it whenever I have gotten the chance. Last night was the first I actually head time to really read and yes that was my first post.

You didn't actually answer my first question. When was the first time you looked at the thread? Do you remember a particular post that you saw that stuck out in your mind?

Swiss didn't hesitate. He simply voted.

Doesn't matter to me. I didn't reread to check whatever it was you were talking about. Hesitation is a town tell though, which was the question you put forth. (Sidenote: what I said to Nabe is my own business. It's the best way to keep him against you, and that's what matters at the moment)

So then you agree that we were looking at both things, thus playing town as opposed to your reasons for thinking we were scum by just looking for one faction? The answer is yes.

I agree that you are publicly hunting for a grouped faction while seeking an individual that wishes to conceal himself. Hunting for the FBI agent is the very same exercise as hunting for the SK.

The objectives are the same. FBI living, increases the chance of catching SK. However, the fact that you guys have a different perspective on this is not the concern.

No, no no no no. It is the very HEART of our concern. How do we accomplish our goal? If one method is shown to have a 74% chance of success considering all factors (including those not simply mechancial) and another is shown to have an 84% chance, then those that support the former are acting in a manner that is anti-town. We will debate this point further after we discuss DNL versus the true version of LPM, which is NOT what you proposed (which was simply Lynch).

You explicityly stated that you felt Omni was too focused on SK:
":You aren't thinking about this like Town. You're only concern is the SK; but after the SK, we still have to worry about the mafia, remember?"
Then you later state that we should be focusing on the SK:
"That's NOT our goal! Our goal is to win; the optimal to accomplish that is to eliminate the SK first, then the mafia."

The first statement was made as an argument against No Lynch versus Lynch. No Lynch (when compared to Lynch AND ONLY to Lynch) provides a greater percent chance of successfully lynching the SK on the first try. However, it severely damages our ability to defeat the mafia faction afterward. At the time, No Lynch and Lynch were the only options being considered. Neither Double No Lynch nor Lynch Pardon Mafia had been brought to the table.

The latter statement was made when No Lynch, Lynch and Double No Lynch were under consideration. No Lynch was shown to be ineffective, and at any rate was already abandoned by Omni. That particular argument was in support of Lynch versus DNL. Omni purported that DNL maximized the chances of eliminating the SK by virtue of providing the maximum protection for our FBI guy. "Not our goal" is in reference to Omni's notion of protecting the FBI guy.

Further, "only concern is the SK" and "eliminate the SK first" are two different notions. We want the maximum possible chance to eliminate the SK with the maximum possible chance to eliminate the mafia afterward. Put more succinctly, and accounting for the possibility that those two objectives are mutually exclusive, we must find the choice that reduces Town's loss chance to the minimum. A very simple concept. Omni's notions do not move us toward that goal.

I assume Lynch Pardon Mafia means a mislynch?

You assume incorrectly.

Lynch Pardon Mafia is explained in post #93. Basically, we agree to a lynch candidate. That person then claims. If FBI agent, we try again. If Mafia, we try again and agree to lynch that person the next Day. If neither, then we lynch that person. This system prevents the SK from claiming mafia to save himself. Mafia would claim because it is in their interest to do so. One way or the other, they would lose that member. But, it is still in their best interest to find and eliminate the SK.

The numbers deserve their own post.

I don't disagree with a DNL. I'm more sided with lynching someone if we have enough evidence to make a solid lynch though. But either lynching or no lynching are paths I'm willing to take.

You don't disagree with DNL, you agree with Lynch, you agree with No Lynch. You're willing to do whatever Town wants to, aren't you? I'm not even sure what you were arguing AGAINST when you were supposedly arguing against LPM.

It's part of a towns duty. You're just a bad player and very egocentric so I wouldn't really expect you to understand if you were town, so not it doesn't determine you as scum. But since you are likely scum regardless.

If my slip had no bearing on my alignment, why bring it to the attention of a theoretical SK that isn't you that may have missed that piece of information? Was it your duty to point it out to said theoretical SK as well?

He (Delvro) doesn't support a no lynch.

Yes he does. He just also supports a Zim lynch because Zim supports Double No Lynch.

Info increases his chance of not hitting scum. Info is already out there; therefore, he has increase of not hitting scum. However, the more town players there are, the less chance there is for him hitting FBI, so a no lynch could be a possible favor even though information is already out.

This is only partially correct. No-Lynch-then-Lynch carries with it enough risks and undesirable side effects that it may be discounted. If you do not understand this, tell me so that I may educate you.

Let's examine DNL first, under the assumption that scum can discount two people for being the mafia and me for being a normal townie. 5 people left, one of whom is the SK, so 4 targets. That's a 3/4 chance that he will hit the agent. Then, there IS A 2ND KILL. Because we went NL TWICE. That's a 2/3 chance that he will miss the agent. Simple arithmetic puts that at a solid 50% chance that our FBI guy dies. 3/4 * 2/3 = 6/12.

Now let's look at the same scenario under the assumption that we discount no one except for myself (the bell cannot be unrung). There is a 5/6 chance to miss N1, then a 4/5 chance. 5/6 * 4/5 = 20/30, or a 66.67% chance of a total miss, which is a 1/3 or 33.33% chance that our FBI guy dies. How is this safe?

Let's go the extra mile and assume that I AM the SK. 6/7, then 5/6 is 30/42, or 5/7 or 71.43% of miss, or 28.57% chance of being killed. That means that if and ONLY if I am the SK, your plan of DNL has at it's VERY BEST a 28.57% chance of the FBI guy dying with a return of two investigations. Something else of note: He will have two investigations under his belt. There is a 5/7 chance that the kill and investigation will NOT overlap (1/7 is the FBI guy himself, and the other is the investigation). But, there are TWO possible overlaps for N2. So, there is only a 3/6 chance that there will be no overlap on D2, assuming that it did NOT overlap on N1. That's only a 15/42, or 35.71% chance that both investigations are intact. If and ONLY if both investigations remain intact is DNL more effective than even simply lynching, and even then only marginally so in that we have another person who cannot be the SK (changing a 33.3% chance of finding the SK to 50% IF THE FBI GUY lives). Now, let's go back a step.

Assume that the FBI guy knows that I am not the SK, and the SK knows that I am not the FBI guy. Situation 2. In this case, There is a 4/6 chance of no overlap N1 and a 2/5 chance of no overlap assuming that it didn't occur N1. 8/30, or 26.67% chance.

And so we are back to the beginning, which would be "examine everyone then go No Lynch" which IS EXACTLY WHAT YOUR SLOT SUGGESTS THAT WE DO. Omni's suggestion. The Pro. 2/4 chance of no overlap N1, then a 1/3 chance of no overlap N2. 1/12. 8.33% chance that, assuming the FBI survives and does not find the SK, that his investigations will be of greater use than lynching.

Let's look at those numbers again.

Find scum: 50% chance of FBI guy dying, 8.33% chance of his investigations being more helpful.
Ignore Cello: 33% chance of FBI guy dying, 26.67% chance of his investigations being more helpful.
Include Cello: 28.6% chance of FBI guy dying, 35.71% chance of his investigations being more helpful.


Now, let's look at lynching. 1/8 chance of hitting the FBI agent, which is effectively the same thing as him dying to an NK, right? Since a claim being forced means he will die that Night. Since someone is dead, he knows that his investigation won't overlap for the one Night that he investigates. That Night, there is a 1/4 chance that the FBI guy will die (assuming that I am being excluded and we bagged a single mafia using LPM. Otherwise, the chance is 1/5, which gives greater support to my argument). That's 7/8 * 3/4, or 18/28, or 65.63% chance of survival, or a 34.37% chance of survival ALONG WITH THE ADDED BENEFIT OF KNOWING WHO ONE OF THE MAFIA TEAM IS. If we DON'T isolate mafia first, then we have a 7/8 * 4/5 chance of FBI survival, which is 70%, or a 30% chance of death.

Let's look at the numbers again.

DOUBLE NO LYNCH
--------------------
Find scum: 50% chance of FBI guy dying, 8.33% chance of his investigations being more helpful.
Ignore Cello: 33% chance of FBI guy dying, 26.67% chance of his investigations being more helpful.
Include Cello: 28.6% chance of FBI guy dying, 35.71% chance of his investigations being more helpful.

LYNCH PARDON MAFIA
-------------------------
Mafia claims: 34.37% chance of FBI guy dying, 1 known mafia member
Lynch town: 30% chance of FBI guy dying

No SK in their right mind thinks that I'm actually the FBI guy, so that means there is 3 point difference in favor of LPM than DNL when it comes to the FBI guy surviving. That's assuming that the SK is deaf, blind, and stupid and has no read for who is mafia. If he has two reads, that's close to a 16 point difference, or almost a 50% increase in the FBI's survival rate.

I'll fully expand what can happen with LPM in my next post.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Omni, you're at L-1. Are you the FBI agent?

 

[Cello_Marl]

That's assuming Swiss's support along with Nabe's, both of whom pledged it for purposes of claim.

 

[Cello_Marl]

Also, "your math is wrong" is pathetic. If you intend to contest it, then prove it. Which calculation are you even referring to?

 

[Delvro]

Zim, it's very simple. Screw all the crap that Cello has put out of you.

Your double no lynch idea is the scummiest move I have seen in a long time. You were (now you're back to voting) trying to get two townies killed before we even make an ATTEMPT at ONE of the scum. Can you not see how outrageous it is? You should.

And no, I don't see why Cello/others are claiming you to be the indy. The double no-lynch strategy above is BAD for the sk, GOOD for the mafia.

Even further, you apparently semi-agree with me about Swiss, yet you consciously decide to vote me over him. Why are you doing that? Trying to appease somebody?

Just die. Or lynch Swiss, I don't care. They're both scum. Delv/Swiss team for the win, right Swiss?

 

[Cello_Marl]

EBWOP: Let's examine DNL first, under the assumption that scum can discount two people for being the mafia and me for being a normal townie. 5 people left, one of whom is the SK, so 4 targets. That's a 3/4 chance that he will MISS the agent.

The math is all accurate.