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TWEWY Mafia | scumbags victorious

Cello_Marl

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BSL, vote for Zim.

Double no lynch keeps the % of SK hitting Investigator at its lowest if our goal is to keep the Investigator alive.
That's NOT our goal! Our goal is to win; the optimal to accomplish that is to eliminate the SK first, then the mafia. Reducing risk to our FBI agent doesn't help us accomplish that.

And having another body prevents certain scenarios where MYLO or LYLO could occur.
Then why sacrifice that body to a needless NK?

And if SK gets cornered he'll claim cop which may force a CC and possibly **** us up in lylo situations depending on the status of the mafia.
Then knowing that, why are you supporting double NL/double investigate? THAT is the very situation that forces the SK into a corner. Besides, only the first investigation would be of use; even a successful 2nd investigation would be tainted and useless, since 2v2v1 means we couldn't kill the SK anyway.
 

I am Zim!

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Actually, you're math has been off for a while now.

You do realize there are 4 vanilla townies, not 3, correct?
 

I am Zim!

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I'm stopping here.

Cello. REREAD. Your math is OFF.

After 2 NL's, we are at 3v2v1 NOT 2v2v1.

Wtf dude? I keep repeating this to you but you keep saying the opposite.

We're talking about a D3 scenario were only 2 people die and you're giving me numbers that total up to 5. Wat?
 

Cello_Marl

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Yes, Cello, but you are betting on the fact that the SK will accurately be able to pinpoint Mafia who at that point are also genuinely scumhunting and look for the SK. Why are you putting so much push on the SK being successful and hitting scum? It's a 50/50 scenario that simply puts us RIGHT back where we started the Day before OR we lose.
I'm not banking on that event; I'm hedging my bets. Lynching forces the SK's optimal strategy to be "kill scum" if we fail. If we succeed in hitting mafia D2, then his strategy remains "kill town". BUT, No Lynch, Lynch makes his optimal strategy "kill town" no matter what under any circumstance in which we can still win.

I've already addressed why lynching is better than double no-lynch.
 

I am Zim!

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...

Cello.

...

Why are you not acknowledging the fact that your math is wrong? It's like your stuck in a timezone where you're reading my posts 30 minutes in the past.
 

Cello_Marl

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Double No Lynch gives us investigate/kill, investigate/kill. If both are successful on the same Night (FBI investigates SK and SK kills FBI), then we get nothing. He's dead; no report. Two chances to die before he get the SK.

Lynch, kill/investigate. In this scenario, we get the opportunity to PREEMPTIVELY kill the SK. A person's flip is the same thing as a person being investigated, without the possibility that they will die and we lose progress. Because they are dead. Investigate happens, with only one chance to kill the FBI agent and his target. It is safer.

The REASON that is the same as an investigate is because the lynch counts as both a kill AND an investigation. Double No-Lynch accomplishes the same task, but leaves it solely at the discretion of our enemy as to who should die. ENEMY.
 

I am Zim!

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I mean, I'm not going crazy, am I?

Are you like... purposely not addressing the points that put you in the wrong purposely? Is this some kind of new scum flailing tactic?

What are you doing?

Lol, let me just stop here and let everyone else read this just to make sure I'm not off my knockers.
 

vanderzant

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Mar 24, 2008
Messages
271
Location
Beneath my dreaming tree
With 8 Alive it takes 5 to lynch!

No Lynch: Delvro
I am Zim!: Cello_Marl, Swiss

Not voting: I am Zim!, X1-12, Sho-Minamimoto, BSL, Afro Horse

A deadline has been set for Midnight on the 12th Feb EST (10am AEST). That's 8 Days!

Mod note: X1-12 is V/LA until Sunday the 6th of Feb.


Mod Note: You must unvote before changing your vote or it will not count. I think the rule on this is ambiguous, so I'll make it clearer.

Edit: Rule #2 In Voting and Lynching is now as follows (change in italics and underline):

2. To unvote, use the command unvote. For example, Unvote Vote: vanderzant. You must unvote each time before voting another individual, or your vote will not be counted.
 

Cello_Marl

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Nov 4, 2009
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Lynching is simply better. If we screw up and hit the FBI agent, then who gives a ****? We can simply NOT lynch him and try again, in effect getting a self targeting innocent. IF it's a fake-claim, great. Instant CC, instead dead SK. It's not in mafia's best interests to CC simply because they need SK dead just as much as town does.

If the SK gets lucky, there is no do-over. FBI Agent is simply dead. No lynch is terribly unsafe for him, two doubly so.
 

Cello_Marl

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BSL, Zim is the SK. Put your vote on him, please. Your earlier hesitation is a town tell. Good. Do it.
 

Cello_Marl

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Sho-Minamimoto, I'm kinda leaning mafia for you. But still, you need Sho-Minamimoto just as dead as we do.
 

Cello_Marl

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Here's something else we can do. If we go to lynch someone and they claim mafia, then we'll agree to leave them alive for the Day and lynch them toMorrow. That way, SK can't fake-claim mafia to survive, and we'll both have a better chance to eliminate the SK to win. Which, if we decided to lynch a mafia member toDay anyway, the other teammate would still have to get the SK lynched at some point.
 

I am Zim!

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Feb 3, 2011
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Cello. You cannot erase your post history. Everyone's going to read this and be like,"wtf, how is Cello trying to lynch a guy based on his math when his own math was already wrong,".

And the fact that you're dodging your own mistake and trying to quick lynch me. Or the fact that you're already pegged me as SK?

This is either the worse town play I've ever seen, or the funniest scum flailing of all time.
 

Cello_Marl

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That's a 12.5% chance to hit SK, and a 37.5% chance to get a retry which would have a 14.28% chance of success and a 28.57% chance to have a retry with a 16.67% chance of success with a 20% chance of a retry with a 20% chance of success.
 

Sho-Minamimoto

J|Sephiroth's Masamune
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1
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Sine! Cosine! Tangent!
Don't you love it when a standard open set-up mafia game turns to a battle of math which hurts my head also the fact that the math impaired can see the points are wrong just screams not to follow it.

What happened to scum hunting?
 

Cello_Marl

Smash Rookie
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The fact of the matter is, I'm interested in winning. You are "interested" in the FBI agent not dying. The latter looks better, but is merely self-serving.
 

Cello_Marl

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@Zim: What is wrong with my proposition in post #95? How is this NOT better than your investigation tactics?
 

I am Zim!

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Cello. Calm down. Reread. You're Wrong.

you've been wrong for a long time. and you're not manning up to it. you're spiraling into this... abyss of craziness that i can't comprehend. and this is just a small write up so people can skip reading EVERYTHING and see where you're pretty much flawed in your argument and how you keep moving forward with it

You completely missed my point. Mislynch/town kill puts us at 3v2v1. In such a situation, if we mislynch AND SK misfires (i.e. doesn't shoot mafia), then the SK has LOST. It MAKES SK's primary interest to kill mafia, whether through his kill or assisting the town.
Correct.

Conversely, No Lynch/town kill/Mislynch/town kill/double investigate puts us at 2v2v1.
ah ah ah, stop skimming. i said double no lynch. but please, continue....

In such a situation, the FBI agent is alive and has likely only has 1 clear. But, in such a case, we CANNOT lynch the SK, or else we lose. BUT, the FBI agent must come forward to give his results, which will certainly cause his death that Night, lest he reveal who the SK is for certain, who cannot afford to allow that. That's 1v1v1, and a town loss. At no point is the SK forced to aid us, as he is in the above situation.
you are exactly right. IF i was suggesting NL into possible Mislynch. which i wasn't.

I didn't say no lynch/town kill... mislynch/town kill double investigate.

I said no lynch/town kill... no lynch/town kill which puts us at 3v2v1. I already did the math above. If we are at 3v2v1 THEN if we get SK we'll be at 3v2 the following day.

Your math is off, Cello.
hey buddy. just letting you know you're talking about something that wasn't even said. way off track.

That's NOT our goal! Our goal is to win; the optimal to accomplish that is to eliminate the SK first, then the mafia. Reducing risk to our FBI agent doesn't help us accomplish that.
lol reducing risk to our FBI agent gives us a maximum of 3 clears Day 3 which puts SK in a pool of 3 people. more likely a pool of 4. it DOES help accomplish that. especially when our FBI agent can actually succeed at getting a GUILTY.

Then why sacrifice that body to a needless NK?
idk wtf ur talking about here. i said two no lynches. i'm not sacrificing any bodies. SK has a chance of hitting mafia n1 and n2. we're simply pushing for our investigator to get more clears since the chance of him being targeted (14% and 16%) are VERY low which means VERY good for us.


Then knowing that, why are you supporting double NL/double investigate? THAT is the very situation that forces the SK into a corner. Besides, only the first investigation would be of use; even a successful 2nd investigation would be tainted and useless, since 2v2v1 means we couldn't kill the SK anyway.
wtf, dude? a double NL puts us at 3v2v1. not 2v2v1. you're driving me insane cuz you're blurting out statistics without actually being.... correct. lol.

Actually, you're math has been off for a while now.

You do realize there are 4 vanilla townies, not 3, correct?
I've never said there aren't. When did I say otherwise?
where? oh, i'll show you again.

Then knowing that, why are you supporting double NL/double investigate? THAT is the very situation that forces the SK into a corner. Besides, only the first investigation would be of use; even a successful 2nd investigation would be tainted and useless, since 2v2v1 means we couldn't kill the SK anyway.
Sho-Minamimoto, I'm kinda leaning mafia for you. But still, you need Sho-Minamimoto just as dead as we do.
are u okay man? you just somehow... deducted that sho-minamimoto was mafia and they didn't even post? and then you're suggesting that sho needs to die? did you somehow already 1 day into the game figure out everyone's alignment? this is amazing.
 

Cello_Marl

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What is better, a 1 in 7 chance that the FBI agent will guess correctly, or a 4 in 8 chance that we will either correctly lynch the SK/get a second chance?
 

Cello_Marl

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Also, it should go without saying, but do NOT try to guess who the SK is if we miss him toDay. Use Random.org. Anyone can say anything to avoid investigation, especially worthless number crunching.
 

BSL

B-B-B-BLAMM!!!
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i wouldnt simply refer to it as 'a second chance' because that implies that the second chance is just as good as the first one. after a mislynch, town is in a less favorable position than before the mislynch. im still opposed to no lynching though, becuase there's a 3/8 chance we hit anti-town, which isnt bad. and that's completely random. after discussion, we'll be able to narrow it down some.
 

BSL

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just to make this clear

we are lynching someone toDay.
 

Cello_Marl

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Nov 4, 2009
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The second chance is BETTER than the first chance. 1/7 is better than 1/8. Also, no one is suggesting we random lynch, BSL. I'm suggesting we lynch Zim. Who is the SK.
 

I am Zim!

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...dude, are you okay? are you on drugs or something? what are you talking about anymore. you say don't guess who the SK is but you're... pegging me as SK now so you're not sure if I'm SK? you lost me like on page 1

i think it might be best just to ignore Cello for a while.

@bsl: can you answer my initial question, please. it's very important to me.
 

Cello_Marl

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Also, what happened to Cello-scum? Not going to pursue that after all? But, the name please.
 

I am Zim!

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this is like debating with a 2 year older.

*reads flavor in OP* ah yes, the sk is name miniamoto. and miniamoto is also one of the player's name. what a coinencedence. i didn't read the flavor since it's not relevant. so that clears up one very minor discrepancy. i still think you're acting bonkers

and i never said u were scum. i said you're either the worst town ever or a very funny flailing scum. i don't have psychic powers like you so i'm not able to deduce everyone's alignment from the get go

seriously, cello, the you and i thing needs to stop. it should have stopped long ago and i shouldn't have entertained it and now i uberly regret it.
 

Cello_Marl

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@Zim:

But, the player's name is Minamimoto, not Miniamoto. The character is Miniamoto (according to Vand).

That would explain why you thought I was referring to the player when I said Sho-Minamimoto. But, why wouldn't you call me out earlier for acting dumb/******** when I said "Why shouldn't we believe Sho-Minamimoto is Sho-Minamimoto"?

But you didn't. You waited until my messed up math to say that. THAT makes it seem like you knew what I was talking about when I was talking about his name. But...how could that be if you JUST NOW read the opening flavor, unless you ARE Miniamoto?
 

Cello_Marl

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@Delvro: Can you see someone that didn't know what I was talking about with "Minamimoto is/isn't Minamimoto" NOT bringing it up in some way, shape, form or fashion? BSL did. Why didn't Zim?
 

BSL

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The second chance is BETTER than the first chance. 1/7 is better than 1/8. Also, no one is suggesting we random lynch, BSL. I'm suggesting we lynch Zim. Who is the SK.
of course the second chance has a better percentage of hitting the SK, but town as a whole is not in a better position.

@bsl: can you answer my initial question, please. it's very important to me.
what's the initial question? i thought i answered the one about who i am, who i know, etc.

@Delvro: Can you see someone that didn't know what I was talking about with "Minamimoto is/isn't Minamimoto" NOT bringing it up in some way, shape, form or fashion? BSL did. Why didn't Zim?
if by "BSL did" you mean i knew what you were talking about, i didnt. i thought it was something completely random. i thought it was equatable to saying "Should we believe Cello_Marl isn't Cello_Marl because he's Cello_Marl? (Or isn't, depending on how you look at it)". unless that is what you were saying, in which case, i caught on.
 

Cello_Marl

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BSL said:
if by "BSL did" you mean i knew what you were talking about, i didnt. i thought it was something completely random. i thought it was equatable to saying "Should we believe Cello_Marl isn't Cello_Marl because he's Cello_Marl? (Or isn't, depending on how you look at it)". unless that is what you were saying, in which case, i caught on.
My point is that you did NOT know. Because you did not know, you asked.

Yet Omni did not, and yet Omni is inquisitive. This is known from his personality and playstyle, and can be seen in the manner in which he interrogates others in his very first post (not simply that he does so, but how he goes about it. It is very "call-and-response", to keep a dialogue flowing. Further evidence of that can be seen in his rather lengthy exchange with me).

Therefore, with because Zim asked no questions, we know they knew what I was talking about.

We know it was Omni and not Zen, because the font is green, and because they did not claim different people were posting at that time (else that is what would have occurred to them to say instead of posting Goofy).

Yet, Omni did not read the OP until post #111.

How did Omni know what I was talking about unless he mistook Miniamoto for Minamimoto? Which then makes one ask, how did he know the name Miniamoto before reading the OP? It MUST have been in his role PM.
 

I am Zim!

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i posted goofy because you're intolerable and this is the worst case of mafia playing i have ever seen.

wtf makes you think i knew what you were talking about? i didn't read any flavor. miniamomto mianiamtao mianaonaa? i'm not paying attention to useless details like you. i didn't know the name miniamoto before reading the OP. that's why i found it ******** for you to tell J/whoever that they are mafia but they should kill themselves. just like how i found everything you've been saying for the past 2 pages to be ********

i really don't know what's worse at this point:
- this ridiculously awful play by cello
- people actually supporting cello
- the fact that no one elseis calling him out on his ******** play
- the severe lack of activity from anyone who isnt Cello

im just really glad im in a hydra so Zen can deal with this. according to him this is normal and it's just "cello being cello"? just plain awful. if you're town you're single handling making this 10x easy for mafia/sk. i really hope you are SK/Mafia putting on a huge facade because at least i know you're acting this way for a reason
 

Cello_Marl

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Have you already forgotten Down n' Dirty? You should have at least an inkling of how I would act.

Anyway, where would you go from here? What is your recommendation? How is Double NL better than my suggestion of Lynch and Spare Mafia?
 

Cello_Marl

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Nov 4, 2009
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C'mon guys, we only have seven days left, so we need to decide on a lynch in the next day or two if we're going to do this properly. We need time to pick a new target if our lynch target claims mafia. If you don't want to lynch Zim right away, I'm fine with forcing Sho-Minamimoto to a claim first.
 
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