TWEWY Mafia | scumbags victorious

[Delvro]

whoops that last 1v1v1 should be 1v1 (1 town, 1 SK)

 

[Swiss]

Go back to school, Swiss.

This requires us to deffo lynch anti-town toMorrow though. We cannot guarantee this. If we mislynch toMorrow:

D2: 5/2/1 Mislynch 4/2/1

N2: 3/2/1or 4/1/1

 

[I am Zim!]

yes, Swiss, but basically it's almost mylo either way

but it's better to be mylo D2 then mylo D1 so investigator can have an extra clear + with more people in the pool the chances of SK targeting investigator toNight is more slim

also there would be 0% chance of us accidentally pushing our investigator to a lynch toDay

 

[Swiss]

I accidentally posted halfway through the maths.

Cannot be ****ed to do it again. I'll assume that this isn't a ridiculous gambit.


I hate this game already. Where's my control?

 

[I am Zim!]

also D2 would probably be 4/2/1 since SK would kill toNight. not 5/2/1.

 

[I am Zim!]

here i'll say it like this

with a no lynch
our best case scenario is that SK kills mafia tonight [20% chance]
the most likely scenario is that SK will kill a townie tonight [50% chance]
the worst case scenario is that SK will kill the investigator tonight [12.5% chance]
[investigator has a 0% of being pushed to a lynch and has a better chance of living to D2 with a clear (non-SK). the investigator also has a small chance of investigating SK. SK also has a 0% of being pushed to lynch, too.]

with a lynch (townie)
our best case scneario is that SK kills mafia tonight [28% chance]
the most likely scenario is that SK will kill a townie tonight [43% chance]
the worst case scenario is that SK will kill the investigator tonight [14% chance]
[this scenario risks accidentally pushing investigator to claim. it could also potentially net us into lynching SK. both of these are possible but have a small percentage of happening. if investigator is alive then he has a slightly better chance of investigating SK. SK also has a slightly better chance of killing investigator.]

basically, we're really banking on our investigator to live to at least D3. even with no guilty reports investigator can claim himself and 2 other people narrowing the lynch pool for SK between the rest of the people. this is assuming that investigator choices live. assuming they die we're even worse off. but we really need to let our investigator live as long as possible.

 

[X1-12]

Hey kids, do you like violence? wanna see me put nine inch nails through each one of my eyelids?

V/LA ish, its only tonight and tomorrow but its 24 hour prods

 

[BSL]

with a no lynch
our best case scenario is that SK kills mafia tonight [28% chance]
the most likely scenario is that SK will kill a townie tonight [57% chance] (71% if you count investigator)
the worst case scenario is that SK will kill the investigator tonight [17% chance]
[investigator has a 0% of being pushed to a lynch and has a better chance of living to D2 with a clear (non-SK). the investigator also has a small chance of investigating SK. SK also has a 0% of being pushed to lynch, too.]

with a lynch (townie)
our best case scneario is that SK kills mafia tonight [33% chance]
the most likely scenario is that SK will kill a townie tonight [50% chance] (67% if you count investigator)
the worst case scenario is that SK will kill the investigator tonight [17% chance]
[this scenario risks accidentally pushing investigator to claim. it could also potentially net us into lynching SK. both of these are possible but have a small percentage of happening. if investigator is alive then he has a slightly better chance of investigating SK. SK also has a slightly better chance of killing investigator.]


fixed your maths for you, zim. and stole your post color. i think you factored in the SK as a potential choice of the NK. SK can't kill himself. or won't, at least.

i have played a few games of mafia, so far. i have been in a game with everyone here except for half of you, Zim. and i think maybe every game i have been in has had swiss in it. not 100% sure, but i think so. so i guess he's the one im most familiar with.

and about the viewing earlier, i was at my friends house and checked the thread on my phone, but i dont particularly like playing mafia on my phone, so i waited until i got home.

 

[I am Zim!]

that's cool. forgiven on behalf of correcting my math =D (yah, forgot to factor SK not killing himself, lol)

i think you forgot to change the investigator's chance of dying on the 2nd part tho

 

[I am Zim!]

ignore. done with math

 

[Delvro]

0.84 base 4 = 0.3113002....

 

[Cello_Marl]

You know what would be awesome? X1 and Afro Horse not getting prodded to death. And to a lesser extent (though not by much, really) Sho-Minamimoto.

Anyway, Omni, the biggest problem with your analysis is that the SK isn't going to be killing randomly. He is going to be killing based on information available.

If we spend the Day collecting information then No Lynching, then all that does is allow the SK to AVOID killing mafia during the Night and PUSH for their lynch during the Day. And THAT, is abso-freakin-lutely terrible. That you would suggest that is...

Unvote Vote Zim

 

[Cello_Marl]

ohhiitsx1hix1lolol.

tl;dr I forgot that X1 was V/LA, then laughed. Then laughed again at the tl;dr being longer than the message.

 

[I am Zim!]

Anyway, Omni, the biggest problem with your analysis is that the SK isn't going to be killing randomly. He is going to be killing based on information available.

If we spend the Day collecting information then No Lynching, then all that does is allow the SK to AVOID killing mafia during the Night and PUSH for their lynch during the Day. And THAT, is abso-freakin-lutely terrible. That you would suggest that is...

Unvote Vote Zim

did you read what i said before? i already know that SK has enough information even before this point to make a non-random kill.

you realize that the SK has a 70% chance of hitting town toDay? it seems like you're banking on SK to randomly nail mafia today based on having no reads? when the chances of hitting town toDay with 0 reads is 70%?

No Lynch because good chance we'll lynch a townie. also, it avoids any possibility that cop accidentlally gets pushed to claim. that's now decided.

next question is early no lynch or late no lynch? you somehow believe that by ending the day prematurely that SK has a better chance of randomly hitting scum toNight. that's a horrible gamble. i'd rather get as much info as possible toDay and see if we can find people who shine as genuine town so the investigator can have more to go on when doing his search toNight. also, this same info can be used to help hunt mafia if/when we can get rid of SK.

 

[Afro Horse]

@Zim:

We are Nabe/Dark Horse. I (Dark Horse) was in Castlevania, Halo, DnD, FF6, Discworld, newbie 11, YT memes, a couple of ongoing games, and possibly more. Don't know about nabe.

I'm most familiar with Swiss and X1, and also somewhat cello and BSL.

@cello we haven't even been prodded yet.

Also,

Percent chance of anti-town lynch : 38%

Percent chance of FBI lynch: 13%

Percent chance of SK lynch: 13%

Percent chance of townie dying, then FBI agent shot: 17%

Percent chance of nl, then FBI agent shot: 14%

Percent chance of townie lynch, then scum being shot 33%

As you can see, today we have the same chance of FBI being lynched as SK being lynched. Also, There is only a 3% increase of the FBi agent being shot wether we nl or lynch. In addition, There is a much higher chance of mafia being shot

We're not nling.

 

[I am Zim!]

you didn't mention the % of a town lynch. u actually omitted a few %'s.

but if we mislynch and hit town we're not looking good tomorrow.

did u forget that by NL'ing that we also get a N1 investigation?

 

[Cello_Marl]

i say we play toDay normal for information and vote no lynch at the end of the day. we're going to need information for paper trails when trying to connect mafia.

You keep saying stuff that sounds good but doesn't actually do us any good. You talk about paper trails connecting mafia, but that sounds like SK talk to me. Mafia's only good chance for success is for both of them to remain alive with at least one mislynch and town kill. A single mafia

you realize that the SK has a 70% chance of hitting town toDay? it seems like you're banking on SK to randomly nail mafia today based on having no reads? when the chances of hitting town toDay with 0 reads is 70%?

Blah, blah, blah, percents, percents, percents. And those percents just get WORSE for town the more that we talk, since SK can IGNORE the people we believe to be connected as potential mafia. Which is the very sort of information that you want us to bring forth. And then go No Lynch.

You aren't thinking about this like Town. You're only concern is the SK; but after the SK, we still have to worry about the mafia, remember? Simply letting someone die (probably town if we line up the mafia, derp) means that we down a full mislynch once we eliminate the SK.

you somehow believe that by ending the day prematurely that SK has a better chance of randomly hitting scum toNight.

This is essentially correct. YOU want to find "mafia paper trails" after all since SK won't leave ally-based trails. Whom the SK can then avoid killing. Your strategy does nothing but support the SK.

I'm not No Lynching. If it happens, then it happens because scum wants it to.

 

[Afro Horse]

you didn't mention the % of a town lynch. u actually omitted a few %'s.

I only included percents that I found important

If we mislynch and
a townie dies, there is a chance we could get the SK, and nks are gone. In addition, there is a 20% chance the FBI agent can find the SK. In addition, if he knows someone is not an sk, there is a 25 percent chance that they could find the SK out of those reports.

A SK will also know that it's smart not to shoot during 3 vs 2 vs 1, as there is a 60% chance he could get scum and lose.

did u forget that by NL'ing that we also get a N1 investigation?

We'll get an investigation report unless we lynch the FBI agent.

Also, Don't hammer before claims

 

[Cello_Marl]

Afro, can you put your vote on Zim for me? Thanks.

Same to you Swiss, plox.

 

[Afro Horse]

I do see your point....

Want to discuss with my other head first

 

[Cello_Marl]

I'm suddenly intensely curious as to which head that is.

 

[I am Zim!]

no, cello. my objective is keeping investigator alive as long as possible. the more clears he gets the easier it will be to find SK. it just so happens that the SK and the investigator both profit in those scenarios.

@cello: ur the investigator. now what method benefits you most?

On iPhone

 

[Swiss]

K.

Unvote Vote Zim

 

[Delvro]

Screw it. No lynch is dumb at this point.

Swiss is flip-flopped from "no lynch is deff the best choice" to "I don't care" to "I don't see what good a NL does" all in one page. He's also playing dumb in a lot of different ways. Swiss isn't dumb -- it's a facade.

Vote: Swiss

Zim is making a lot of mechanics and percentage arguments, but I have as well -- I don't see how I can blame him for that.

 

[Swiss]

What does playing dumb mean?

 

[Delvro]

You didn't understand any of my analysis posts and you claimed now to know we were in mylo even though I specifically said "town,mafia,mafia lynch gives town the loss" in an earlier post.

you haven't been thinking about the words that come out of my mouth!

 

[Swiss]

Probably correct.

 

[Afro Horse]

I'm suddenly intensely curious as to which head that is.

Na be.

 

[I am Zim!]

nope, i looked this over and over again. i don't see how going throughout the day and ending in a No Lynch isn't a good route.

you guys keep talking about no lynch, make it random, not realizing that SK could have made a non-random guess right at that point. there was already plenty of information on the board of the SK to use.

If we mislynch and a townie dies, there is a chance we could get the SK, and nks are gone.

what? you mean if D1 we mislynch, N1 SK shoots, then D2 "there is a chance we could get SK"? that chance exist everyday and obviously increasing as the pool decreases. if we mislynch and a townie dies there's also a chance that we don't get the SK. i mean, wat

In addition, there is a 20% chance the FBI agent can find the SK.

20% that FBI can find the SK based on what? while we're down 2 townies? and FBI only has 1 investigation at this point? my point is by doing a NL at most we'd be down 1 townie which is already likely to happen and still have 1 investigation.

In addition, if he knows someone is not an sk, there is a 25 percent chance that they could find the SK out of those reports.

wrong again. because you aren't taking into effect that the SK could kill the investigator, or the actual person that the investigator investigated.

A SK will also know that it's smart not to shoot during 3 vs 2 vs 1, as there is a 60% chance he could get scum and lose.

what? 3 town. 2 mafia. 1 sk. that's a 40% chance he could get scum. a dramatic difference. what are you calculating?

We'll get an investigation report unless we lynch the FBI agent.

yes, but as i said before, we can have a report with 1 townie possibly dead or 2 possibly dead.

i asked this question to Cello but i want you to answer it as well. what's the best play as an investigator?

 

[Cello_Marl]

The people that are dead, the less people there are to choose from.

If we lynch, it's 1 in 6, then 1 in 3 or 4 depending on whether the "clear" is killed or not (assuming that we lynch mafia, since that's the only situation in which we'd need an investigation and are still capable of winning).

If we don't, then it's 1 in 7, then 1 in 4 or 5 depending on whether the "clear" is killed or not. But, we STILL pretty much have to lynch mafia. If we don't, then we're 2v2v1. In such a case, if we lynch SK, then we lose. If we lynch mafia, we're at 2v1SK or 1v1v1SK. SK would pretty likely be able to tell who the other mafia is, so we're basically looking at a loss.

Not much difference between the two since SK gets better odds at killing our FBI guy, until you consider that the lynch scenario gives us two lynches. The No Lynch gives us...one. Because we went...No Lynch. Four shots at getting the SK compared to 3, with better odds? I'll take that. Besides, we're looking at this as though the FBI guy dying makes us lose the game. No. We can still LYNCH the SK normally.

Which is why my vote is on Zim. Between me and the FBI guy, we can just lynch everyone else and win this game, so put your votes on Zim.

 

[Cello_Marl]

EBWOP: The MORE people that are dead...

 

[I am Zim!]

See? That's the difference.

You're relying on normal LYNCHES to catch SK. I'm relying on the INVESTIGATOR getting the most number of investigations to either:

a.) Get lucky and find SK
b.) Get at least 2 clears that are alive to make the pool where SK is smaller

You said if we don't it's 1 in 7.
Townie dies. It's now 4v2v1. (3 townies, 1 cop, 2 mafia, 1 SK)
Then you said we HAVE to lynch Mafia. If we don't it will be 2v2v1. I'm assuming this is as of D3.
But you're assuming two things:

1.) The SK doesn't hit Mafia himself N2.
2.) That we HAVE to lynch at all D2

Did you consider a D2 No Lynch IF the investigator lives?

 

[Cello_Marl]

Further, if we lynch, then SK has incentive to help us, both with scum hunting AND through his Night Kill.
Mislynch/town kill, mislynch/town kill is a mafia win.
Mislynch/town kill, mislynch/mafia kill and Mislynch/town kill, mafia lynch/town kill keep us, and the SK, in the game.
With a No Lynch, we lose that, since SK has no incentive to help us to maintain enough numbers against the mafia. Instead, his focus is trying to kill our FBI guy, since we MUST have done the work for him to live (else our numbers dip too low to win).

 

[I am Zim!]

SK trying to help with scumhunting doesn't mean squat. ALL of us are legitimitely scumhunting because there are 3 separate factions and we all pose a threat to each other. How does one come off scummy when everyone is searching for some kind of scum?

To expound, the chances of SK nailing the investigator goes:

D1: 1/7 = 14%
D2: 1/6 = 16%

Extremely low. And these %'s are the same for investigator nailing SK. Most importantly, it gives the investigator a good chance at living.

The variables are then (as of Day 3):
a.) SK could hit 1 Mafia (likely)
b.) SK could hit 2 Mafia (unlikely)
c.) SK could hit 1 investigator target (likely)
d.) SK could hit 2 investigator target (unlikely)
e.) SK could hit 0 investigator target (unlikely)

If cop lives to D3 with the most likely scenarios we'll have 3v2v1 at WORSE. And if the night actions go well then there will be more clears narrowing the SK pool. If it goes bad then we're in a true MYLO situation.

Tell me. Is my math anywhere in the above incorrect?

 

[Cello_Marl]

Did you consider a D2 No Lynch IF the investigator lives?

Hahaha. That's funny.

Why the **** would we do that? Double no lynch gives nothing that lynch doesn't already give us and more.

Investigate/kill, investigate/kill. If both are successful on the same Night (FBI investigates SK and SK kills FBI), then we get nothing. He's dead; no report. Two chances to die before he get the SK.

Lynch, kill/investigate. In this scenario, we get the opportunity to PREEMPTIVELY kill the SK. A person's flip is the same thing as a person being investigated, without the possibility that they will die and we lose progress. Because they are dead. Investigate happens, with only one chance to kill the FBI agent and his target. It is safer.

 

[I am Zim!]

What?

Double no lynch keeps the % of SK hitting Investigator at its lowest if our goal is to keep the Investigator alive. A lynch, however, lowers the pool giving SK a better chance at hitting Investigator. It also opens up the possibility of accidentally forcing cop to claim. And if SK gets cornered he'll claim cop which may force a CC and possibly **** us up in lylo situations depending on the status of the mafia.

I think we are ninja'ing each other.

But it seems to me that you're playing a much more riskier game by going for the lynch as opposed to working with low %'s to see what kind of results the investigator can get. I think the key to winning this game is keeping the investigator alive to D3. You think it's preemptively lynching the SK before D3.

So I disagree.

 

[I am Zim!]

Also, a person's flip is NOT the same as person being investigated because they are NOT alive and they don't add to the population count nor the vote count. Having another body = having another target for the SK to choose = decreasing the chances of investigator getting hit.

And having another body prevents certain scenarios where MYLO or LYLO could occur.

Cello, are you really thinking this through thoroughly?

 

[BSL]

im not voting NL.

 

[Cello_Marl]

SK trying to help with scumhunting doesn't mean squat. ALL of us are legitimitely scumhunting because there are 3 separate factions and we all pose a threat to each other. How does one come off scummy when everyone is searching for some kind of scum?

You completely missed my point. Mislynch/town kill puts us at 3v2v1. In such a situation, if we mislynch AND SK misfires (i.e. doesn't shoot mafia), then the SK has LOST. It MAKES SK's primary interest to kill mafia, whether through his kill or assisting the town.

Conversely, No Lynch/town kill/Mislynch/town kill/double investigate puts us at 2v2v1. In such a situation, the FBI agent is alive and has likely only has 1 clear. But, in such a case, we CANNOT lynch the SK, or else we lose. BUT, the FBI agent must come forward to give his results, which will certainly cause his death that Night, lest he reveal who the SK is for certain, who cannot afford to allow that. That's 1v1v1, and a town loss. At no point is the SK forced to aid us, as he is in the above situation.

 

[I am Zim!]

Yes, Cello, but you are betting on the fact that the SK will accurately be able to pinpoint Mafia who at that point are also genuinely scumhunting and look for the SK. Why are you putting so much push on the SK being successful and hitting scum? It's a 50/50 scenario that simply puts us RIGHT back where we started the Day before OR we lose.

I didn't say no lynch/town kill... mislynch/town kill double investigate.

I said no lynch/town kill... no lynch/town kill which puts us at 3v2v1. I already did the math above. If we are at 3v2v1 THEN if we get SK we'll be at 3v2 the following day.

Your math is off, Cello.