Toad/Captain Toad for Smash, Toad Brigade Assemble!

[YoshiandToad]

YoshiandToad Your moveset video is just the thing I needed this week. That spark of creativity it gives off just made my day. It also convinced myself to buy Treasure Tracker for the 3DS and inspired me to continue on doing fanmade copy abilities and movesets for Kirby XD That video also got another member in the Toad Brigade and I hope I'm not that late~

Although, I do admit that a jumpless captain is turning me off just a bit but the clever and quirky pros, such as the platform creation and wall-walking, just outweighed that single con. Overall, I'm still fanboying with this work <3 Kudos to you~*

I'm genuinely glad! and yes, same for buying Treasure Tracker a second time. I'll probably nab for the Switch as...honestly have no idea where my 3DS is these days. Oops.

I'm actually working on a follow up video which maaaay ease some concerns people have about him.

But keep being creative, keep trying new things and keep up the good work!

In other news; there was that leak today with Captain Toad being teased as a 'summoner' type character. Interestingly there's elements of that in my animated moveset, and whilst I doubt the leaks real(that Pokemon choice is REALLY obscure) I'm taking a bit of pride in people getting a little more creative with Captain Toad's gameplay styles than simply "can't jump, don't work"

With Treasure Tracker around the corner, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some Toad reveal tomorrow. Fingers crossed, eh, brigade?

 

[TumblrFamous]

Keeping my fingers crossed! Just remember that him not being shown tomorrow isn't a total deconfirmation.

I don't know if I see Captain Toad as an E3 Reveal, maybe a Direct reveal. But I'm hopeful and feeling really good about his chances, friends!

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

I can honestly see them revealing Captain Toad at E3. we'll get a trailer showing off the switch/3DS ports and then that'll segue into a smash trailer revealing him as playable.

BRIGADE! ASSEMBLE!

I've finished my Captain Toad moveset! It's animated!

I know we've all talked about giving the Captain small jumps but I thought I'd try and see if a NO JUMP moveset was even vaguely feasible.

Check it out and give me feedback. Feel free to share this on social media too and to anyone you think it'd benefit!

-YoshiandToad

That was really cool! super creative and well made too.
Awesome Job. I'm sure that'll help people see Captain Toad as a unique choice with a lot of potential.

 

[Ultra*HappyCharge]

I'm genuinely glad! and yes, same for buying Treasure Tracker a second time. I'll probably nab for the Switch as...honestly have no idea where my 3DS is these days. Oops.

I'm actually working on a follow up video which maaaay ease some concerns people have about him.

But keep being creative, keep trying new things and keep up the good work!

In other news; there was that leak today with Captain Toad being teased as a 'summoner' type character. Interestingly there's elements of that in my animated moveset, and whilst I doubt the leaks real(that Pokemon choice is REALLY obscure) I'm taking a bit of pride in people getting a little more creative with Captain Toad's gameplay styles than simply "can't jump, don't work"

With Treasure Tracker around the corner, I'm keeping my fingers crossed for some Toad reveal tomorrow. Fingers crossed, eh, brigade?

That's good to know and thankies for the support. Keep up the good work, too! ^_^

 

[ChronoBound]

I'm genuinely glad! and yes, same for buying Treasure Tracker a second time. I'll probably nab for the Switch as...honestly have no idea where my 3DS is these days. Oops.

I'm actually working on a follow up video which maaaay ease some concerns people have about him.

But keep being creative, keep trying new things and keep up the good work!

You did a very fantastic job on selling Captain Toad, you even convinced me that he might be able to work, even without conventional jumping.

As for Toad in general (Captain or otherwise), I said during the pre-Smash 4 period that Toad had one of the strongest resumes of any character from a veteran franchise not yet playable in Smash Bros. Toad has been a playable character in multiple mainline Super Mario games (Super Mario Bros. 2, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, New Super Mario Bros. U, New Super Luigi U, and Super Mario 3D World), as well as being the main protagonist for two games (Wario's Woods and Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker).

He is among the most popular, iconic, and well known Nintendo characters not yet playable in Smash Bros. Few other characters left have the resume that Toad has (Ridley, K. Rool, and Dixie Kong are the only other ones that come to mind). Like Ridley, there have been people hoping for him since the pre-Melee days, and also like Ridley, despite having been deconfirmed with the same role for three games in a row (aside from the Mii costume role that was added for Smash 4), Toad fans are somehow stronger and more numerous than ever.

Toad faces a lot of competition for a Mario newcomer slot. Geno has fan favoritism and Sakurai's possibly. Paper Mario has a popular sub-series, and a new game release that happened between Smash 4 and Smash Switch. Waluigi may have the most requests of any character not named Ridley or K. Rool. Of all these characters, Toad is the definitely the most "all-star" of them all. He has been a part of Nintendo's universe for over 30 years, and people have been able to personally play as him for 30 years this year.

I personally never got a Wii U, so I missed out on a lot of Nintendo's most notable titles from 2012 to 2017. However, one of the few Wii U games I wished that I could play was Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker. It looked like a fun interesting little title with a fresh gameplay twist. Thankfully, I do own a Nintendo 3DS, so assuming the 3DS port is good, I will finally be able to play this sleeper hit featuring one of Nintendo's unsung heroes.

I mentioned in an earlier post supporting Dixie Kong, that Toad (like Dixie Kong) deserves a lot more support than what is happening right now. Hopefully his support base will continue to grow.

Like many other characters I am sympathetic towards (or supportive of), I am doubtful of Toad's prospects, particularly Captain Toad. I feel that Captain Toad's inability to jump will make Sakurai automatically write the character off, and will probably just end up being included as an Assist Trophy. As for Toad, I feel that he will reprise the same role he had in Smash 4, as one of Peach's specials and a Mii costume. As with all the other character (particularly so Ridley), I am hoping that I am wrong, but the competition for a Mario newcomer slot is very steep with Geno, Paper Mario, and Waluigi all having major points in their favor as well.

We shall see what happens. However, as one of the original Ridley supporters who has been dreaming of him since 1999, please continue to dream. Toad, like Ridley, is a character that deserved to be in Smash Bros. a long time ago, and hopefully his time will finally be here with this upcoming installment. Whether it is Toad the platforming hero or the jumpless adventurer Captain Toad, either one deserves to represent this iconic Nintendo all-star.

Toad for Smash Bros.

 

[Opossum]

Here's hoping Smash gets another Captain tomorrow.

The fungus just beginning.

 

[Propeller Toad]

Whether our lovable fungi gets revealed or not tomorrow, I just want to let you guys know how proud I am to see so many Toad/Captain Toad fans here! Our hero may be pint-sized, but glad to see many of us share similar feelings of wishing to see the captain get in this time for Smash!

Stay optimistic and enjoy the show later on folks! Captain Toad has a very good resume right now, so the best we can do is to show our loyal support (send him more energy!). I wish our fellow passengers with their overdue character choices the best of luck too - it's been a bumpy ride so far, but things are bound to get wilder by the next evening! It can be scary, but I'm glad to have met such a great bunch of fellow Smashers this time!

Really appreciate the in depth post about Toad/Captain Toad ChronoBound . Indeed, it's tough to see the little star to miss his chance for Smash over the years, but it's quite nice to finally have some more support. I do wish the very best for Ridley as well - he too is super overdue.

YoshiandToad In regards to that summoner moveset, I do wonder if the bird (not Wingo according to the leak) that carries the captain for his jumps may actually be a flaptor from TT? Very interesting take in that leak to have Captain Toad being a summoner of sorts, and it could be hilarious seeing a little bird enemy bursting out of his pack and giving him jumps (almost reminds me of Banjo-Kazooie).

 

[fogbadge]

Sure.

done, welcome

 

[jreed3842]

Did you guys get a chance to watch the Direct?

What are everyone's thoughts?!

 

[Propeller Toad]

Looks like Toad's role for Peach has been expanded (to mimic some of her abilities?). Hard to say, but seems like the case.

Regardless, we have yet to see Captain Toad anywhere at this point - so he's still up in the air as a possibility. This is good news for Captain Toad as there is no confirmation or deconfirmation.

Very pleased with all the returning veterans; however (Pichu, my old favourite! ). This definitely surprised me, and goes to show how unpredictable Sakurai is. Looks like Daisy is in as an "Echo Fighter" as well while Waluigi has been confirmed as an assist trophy as quite the twist. Also very happy to see Ridley finally get in! About time especially for those awaiting all these years!

 

[Arcadenik]

Daisy got in and Toad didn’t.

Not only is Peach using The Toad as a meat shield, now Daisy is using Blue Toad as a meat shield as well.

Anti-Toad bias is real.

Well, there’s always Smash 6 (the game after SSBU).

 

[Albo]

I'm really happy for Daisy, I feel like her implementation is perfect for her. Waluigi...is fine as an assist trophy, to be honest. At least in my opinion.

I'm actually glad Toad seems to be taking a slightly more active role in Peach's moveset. It always felt wrong that he was always just held helplessly, but now it seems like he's "summoned" in a way to help...even if just for a split second.

But Captain Toad is nowhere to be seen, so don't give up hope!

 

[jreed3842]

Looks like Toad's role for Peach has been expanded (to mimic some of her abilities?). Hard to say, but seems like the case.

Regardless, we have yet to see Captain Toad anywhere at this point - so he's still up in the air as a possibility. This is good news for Captain Toad as there is no confirmation or deconfirmation.

Very pleased with all the returning veterans; however (Pichu, my old favourite! ). This definitely surprised me, and goes to show how unpredictable Sakurai is. Looks like Daisy is in as an "Echo Fighter" as well while Waluigi has been confirmed as an assist trophy as quite the twist. Also very happy to see Ridley finally get in! About time especially for those awaiting all these years!

I am STILL holding out for Captain Toad!! He hasn't been deconfirmed yet! No sign of him in the assist trophies... So... My hope is still afloat!!

And god... I want him in this game SO BAD. The game looks SO GOOD!!

 

[warelander]

If nothing else Toad at least seems to be more then a meatshield for once, but still....I already don't like Daisy and if she was seriously added, without Captain Toad anywhere in sight, then she can officially buzz off, as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Albo]

Some observations on Toad from Smash Ultimate:
Seems like he's still a counter for Peach/Daisy, bringing back the whole spore-attack mechanic. His animations look more active (though that could just be a difference between Daisy's Blue Toad and Peach's Toad):

However, Toad's role has also been expanded! It seems that he's at least part of Peach's grabs/throws, where he mimics her attacks. We don't know how this changes up her moveset (probably just additional damage), but hey, I'll take it!

Anyway, that's all I could grab from the very little we saw of the Toads.

 

[Pokechu]

Y'all know what I find weird? I feel like Daisy having Blue Toad kind of increases the Captain's chances?

Like yeah Toad and Blue Toad both got KO'd lol but why wouldn't Daisy use Toadette? Like if they're bringing out Daisy then I'd expect them to make a nod to Toadette and not Blue Toad...

and I feel like the Captain isn't a character that'll be absent for this Smash. Like I don't mean that in "oh he's gonna be playable" but that he's going to be in in some way. Like Pauline got in in the background of her stage. If Captain wasn't in then I think that he could have replaced Toad for Daisy or that Toadette would have... like I'm pretty surprised that Daisy's using Blue and not Toadette.

But IDK I'm not holding my breath of course and I know it means nothing, but just something that's a little strange, you know?

 

[warelander]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETVQLZV7J8g

I really do enjoy how Toads animations portray him as more of a fighter, it's a much nicer treatment of his character then what we had before.

 

[Propeller Toad]

Y'all know what I find weird? I feel like Daisy having Blue Toad kind of increases the Captain's chances?

Like yeah Toad and Blue Toad both got KO'd lol but why wouldn't Daisy use Toadette? Like if they're bringing out Daisy then I'd expect them to make a nod to Toadette and not Blue Toad...

and I feel like the Captain isn't a character that'll be absent for this Smash. Like I don't mean that in "oh he's gonna be playable" but that he's going to be in in some way. Like Pauline got in in the background of her stage. If Captain wasn't in then I think that he could have replaced Toad for Daisy or that Toadette would have... like I'm pretty surprised that Daisy's using Blue and not Toadette.

But IDK I'm not holding my breath of course and I know it means nothing, but just something that's a little strange, you know?

Definitely a good observation as it is quite random as to how Daisy is using Blue Toad instead. Perhaps this was also just meant to be a quick fill in as opposed to adding a complete Toadette model? Hard to say at this point; however, it is clear to see that both Captain Toad and Toadette are noticeably absent so far in the trailer.

Does feel odd to have Daisy before a playable Toad, but perhaps we might be pleasantly surprised in the near future. Ridley definitely stole the show with his newcomer reveal. Others like Bandanna Dee, King K. Rool, Dixie, etc were also not deconfirmed as assist trophies either, so let's see where Captain Toad and Toadette end up in the game.

 

[Pokechu]

Definitely a good observation as it is quite random as to how Daisy is using Blue Toad instead. Perhaps this was also just meant to be a quick fill in as opposed to adding a complete Toadette model? Hard to say at this point; however, it is clear to see that both Captain Toad and Toadette are noticeably absent so far in the trailer.

Does feel odd to have Daisy before a playable Toad, but perhaps we might be pleasantly surprised in the near future. Ridley definitely stole the show with his newcomer reveal. Others like Bandanna Dee, King K. Rool, Dixie, etc were also not deconfirmed as assist trophies either, so let's see where Captain Toad and Toadette end up in the game.

Yeah that's what I was thinking, it could just be a fill in but even then if Daisy also used Toad then it wouldn't be the weirdest thing. There's been instances where there's been multiple Red/Blue Toads so it wouldn't be strange at all in my opinion. That's why it stuck out to me since they could have easily left it alone and making a model for Toadette wouldn't be very hard since she has the exact same body as Toad.

We can only wait and see though, I'm not gonna hold my breath but I'm just gonna silently hope this was a hint at our Captain

 

[CWCPT00]

Y'all know what I find weird? I feel like Daisy having Blue Toad kind of increases the Captain's chances?

Like yeah Toad and Blue Toad both got KO'd lol but why wouldn't Daisy use Toadette? Like if they're bringing out Daisy then I'd expect them to make a nod to Toadette and not Blue Toad...

and I feel like the Captain isn't a character that'll be absent for this Smash. Like I don't mean that in "oh he's gonna be playable" but that he's going to be in in some way. Like Pauline got in in the background of her stage. If Captain wasn't in then I think that he could have replaced Toad for Daisy or that Toadette would have... like I'm pretty surprised that Daisy's using Blue and not Toadette.

But IDK I'm not holding my breath of course and I know it means nothing, but just something that's a little strange, you know?

Was about to say this, may not mean anything possibly but with no mention of Captain Toad or Toadette seen from the trailer I’m still hopeful.

It ain’t no Smash Bros ‘Ultimate’ without a playable Toad.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Okay so...as sad as I am we didn't get playable Toad...

...honestly?

It's an improvement! A step in the right direction!

Toad isn't some helpless useless weak looking meatshield anymore, he's getting active and helping defend his god damn Princess and her friend like a proper knight, guardian or ward. He looks a little badass even and THAT is a far more respectful way to treat one of the biggest faces in Nintendo than the previous Toad Counter.

Congratulations to the Daisy fans, only a handful saw this coming.
I still think Toad being her counter is...weird, but hey I guess Blue Toad is a mirror character to Regular Toad in the same way Daisy is to Peach. Kinda neat!

Captain Toad(and Toadette) is currently still in, but we'll have to see. He could be deconfirmed any day. Don't be disheartened though Brigade. Toad could eventually pull a Ridley after all.

Whilst not really much of a comfort right now I'll probably add to that Captain Toad moveset at some point soon.

 

[Pokechu]

to be honest though

the real mirror to Toad is Toadette

like Peach goes with Daisy, Toad goes with Toadette. That's why I'm surprised Daisy uses Blue Toad and not Toadette

 

[jreed3842]

Some observations on Toad from Smash Ultimate:
Seems like he's still a counter for Peach/Daisy, bringing back the whole spore-attack mechanic. His animations look more active (though that could just be a difference between Daisy's Blue Toad and Peach's Toad):

View attachment 147847
However, Toad's role has also been expanded! It seems that he's at least part of Peach's grabs/throws, where he mimics her attacks. We don't know how this changes up her moveset (probably just additional damage), but hey, I'll take it!
View attachment 147851
View attachment 147848
Anyway, that's all I could grab from the very little we saw of the Toads.

I love the way Toad looks here. I liked that they worked him in more, and I LOVE his booty bump with Peach's throw!

And... Correct me if I'm wrong but we haven't seen any Captain Toad related items yet have we? Stuff like Double Cherries, or the Super Pickaxe, or the potted Piranha plant! (I know they came from 3D World but they were a big part of Treasure Tracker!) So... Since we haven't seen even the slightest hint of Captain Toad... I am still feeling hopeful!

I jokingly told my boyfriend that they programmed some stuff for Captain Toad and then got better ideas and decided the stuff they had already they could just attach to Peach.
I doubt it! But that would be nice if that were the case!

 

[fogbadge]

so my favourite mario character was looked over in favour of my least favourite, its a little hard not to take that personally

 

[Arcadenik]

Well, at least Toad looks like a fighter when guarding Peach instead of a helpless meat shield this time.

Maybe SSB6 (the next game after Ultimate) will see Toad becoming more active... as an Assist Trophy.

Then SSB7 will have Toad upgraded from Assist Trophy to playable... that is, after Waluigi gets in SSB6.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Seriously this

vs. this

Although he doesn't always manage to protect...

Regardless it's really a no brainer for which portrays Toad in a better light. Hell, it portrays PEACH in a better light too. She's the all loving Princess of the Mushroom Kingdom, she doesn't use her subjects as pawns dammit!

I'm far too happy about Toad being showcased in a better light to even be too sad right now that he missed out to Daisy. I'm just genuinely glad Sakurai isn't being a jerk about Toad anymore even if he seems to want to keep him out of a true playable role.

I'll just be playing as Peach and grabbing and countering for this Smash as much as I can as my secondary. Peach is now a grappler character in my eyes.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Well Toad may not have gotten a slot but he got Dignity.

More than can be said of most.

Plus Blue Toad of 3D Land fame got to pitch in too with the new Princess.

 

[jreed3842]

Seriously this

vs. this

Although he doesn't always manage to protect...

Regardless it's really a no brainer for which portrays Toad in a better light. Hell, it portrays PEACH in a better light too. She's the all loving Princess of the Mushroom Kingdom, she doesn't use her subjects as pawns dammit!

I'm far too happy about Toad being showcased in a better light to even be too sad right now that he missed out to Daisy. I'm just genuinely glad Sakurai isn't being a jerk about Toad anymore even if he seems to want to keep him out of a true playable role.

I'll just be playing as Peach and grabbing and countering for this Smash as much as I can as my secondary. Peach is now a grappler character in my eyes.

Toad even as just part of a moveset has some personality to him. So I can appreciate that.

I like Toad's face in the Bowser picture. He's like "Try me B****!" And I love it.

Peach was always my main cause she's the closest I could get to Toad. So if we don't get the Captain I can at least appreciate my main using my favorite with more dignity this time around!

 

[Arcadenik]

Although he doesn't always manage to protect...

To be fair, Donkey Kong was only doing a taunt.

 

[YoshiandToad]

To be fair, Donkey Kong was only doing a taunt.

BUT HE WAS TAUNTING AGGRESSIVELY.

But yeah, overall I'm pretty glad Toad ended up a bit more dignified. We'll most likely get the Toad Mii outfit back for Brawler too as a wooden spoon prize, but we may get super lucky and get Captain Toad yet joining the fray. Don't bank on it, but it's not the darkest time we've had as Toad fans!

 

[Propeller Toad]

Definitely agree that this is a considerably much better depiction of Toad in Peach's kit. Toad's actually doing his best to protect her, and boy does he look pissed even for his usual standards. Even Peach looks more frightened than Toad!

If there's going to be a Pic of the Day situation for this game, I'd keep an eye out for July 13th when Treasure Tracker comes out. Perhaps there's still a chance for the good Captain (considering we have 3 Links and now echo characters - there's nothing stopped from having one actual playable toad).

Despite all this, very happy with the roster so far. I'm very happy to see all the returning content and hopefully this will be a game to remember ala traditional.

 

[Arcadenik]

It's weird. I was really upset when Rosalina got in over Toad in SSB4. And yet I'm not too upset when Daisy got in over Toad. And I think it's because Sakurai invested time and resources on Rosalina and made her an unique fighter whereas Sakurai only made Daisy a last-minute filler clone of Peach Peach's Echo Fighter.

 

[Albo]

It's weird. I was really upset when Rosalina got in over Toad in SSB4. And yet I'm not too upset when Daisy got in over Toad. And I think it's because Sakurai invested time and resources on Rosalina and made her an unique fighter whereas Sakurai only made Daisy a last-minute filler clone of Peach Peach's Echo Fighter.

Same here. I think something that helps is that Daisy's kind of been pushed to the side a lot, so it's nice to see her get some love, whereas Rosalina in SSB4 was just another instance of "Rosalina is in everything now so deal with it"

 

[jreed3842]

It's weird. I was really upset when Rosalina got in over Toad in SSB4. And yet I'm not too upset when Daisy got in over Toad. And I think it's because Sakurai invested time and resources on Rosalina and made her an unique fighter whereas Sakurai only made Daisy a last-minute filler clone of Peach Peach's Echo Fighter.

I feel the exact same.
I am actually excited to try Daisy! Peach is my main (closest I can get to Toad) so I am excited to see how she plays.
I am not bitter towards her at all like I was towards Rosalina and Bowser Jr. I have wanted Daisy as a costume (similar to Olimar/Alph and Bowser Jr./Koopalings) for quite awhile. And having her as a clone doesn't really upset me at all... She actually kinda makes me smile. So I am happy for the Daisy fans and eager to see how she feels compared to Peach. Maybe I'll like her better?!

 

[ThoughtfulWanderer]

I understand things look grim with the way they updated meatshield Toad's animations and I don't want to give false hope, but the Captain may not necessarily be considered the same Toad. The chances have definitely taken a hit, but the Captain hasn't been sunk by a disconfirmation yet.

I do like Daisy though, so even if that's all we get in the Mario department (R.I.P. the Wah), I won't be too upset.

 

[jreed3842]

I understand things look grim with the way they updated meatshield Toad's animations and I don't want to give false hope, but the Captain may not necessarily be considered the same Toad. The chances have definitely taken a hit, but the Captain hasn't been sunk by a disconfirmation yet.

I do like Daisy though, so even if that's all we get in the Mario department (R.I.P. the Wah), I won't be too upset.

My hope still floats! There maaay be a little hole in the bottom, or maybe a giant iceberg I can't see on this calm, clear night...

But I am not sunk yet! And hopefully this boat will reach it's destination and we shall celebrate a glorious Captain Toad victory in the future!

 

[Zzuxon]

*sigh*

So yeah, Captain Toad is possible, but frankly I doubt it. I feel like having hope at this point will lead to disappointment, and I personally consider Toad de-confirmed. I'd love to be wrong, but I don't think I am. Seems like this is it, at least until DLC comes around.

What I can say is its clear that Sakurai is making a concerted effort to make Toad's role less insulting, portraying him more as Peach's equal. So that's quite nice. I also think it means that Sakurai recognizes a tremendous demand for Toad(As also evidenced by the Mii fighter costume from 4), which helps his chances for DLC or ****ing hell, smash 6.

 

[Pokechu]

*sigh*

So yeah, Captain Toad is possible, but frankly I doubt it. I feel like having hope at this point will lead to disappointment, and I personally consider Toad de-confirmed. I'd love to be wrong, but I don't think I am. Seems like this is it, at least until DLC comes around.

What I can say is its clear that Sakurai is making a concerted effort to make Toad's role less insulting, portraying him more as Peach's equal. So that's quite nice. I also think it means that Sakurai recognizes a tremendous demand for Toad(As also evidenced by the Mii fighter costume from 4), which helps his chances for DLC or ****ing hell, smash 6.

Just curious, why do you doubt Captain Toad? I think even with Toad out CT stands a chance, Toad is a species after all. but idk

 

[Zzuxon]

Just curious, why do you doubt Captain Toad? I think even with Toad out CT stands a chance, Toad is a species after all. but idk

Yes he stands a chance, but I think it's a very poor chance. I get the very strong impression that Toad's more active and dignified role is meant to placate people who want Toad as a character, likely due to a recognized demand from the ballot. This would not be necessary at all if Captain Toad was playable. If Captain Toad was playable, they would likely avoid showing the toad elements of Peach's moveset entirely, not give them an overhaul and draw a considerable amount of attention to them.

 

[ThoughtfulWanderer]

Yes he stands a chance, but I think it's a very poor chance. I get the very strong impression that Toad's more active and dignified role is meant to placate people who want Toad as a character, likely due to a recognized demand from the ballot. This would not be necessary at all if Captain Toad was playable. If Captain Toad was playable, they would likely avoid showing the toad elements of Peach's moveset entirely, not give them an overall and draw a considerable amount of attention to them.

That's the impression I got too. It would be weird to go to the trouble of updating Toad's role to make him tougher if Captain Toad were to be added and serve that same purpose anyways. We have seen weirder from Sakurai, but I'm keeping my hopes small; alive, but small.