Yeah, Toad's chances are actually pretty good all things considered. He's like Bandana Dee, in that he's continually become more popular over time and has gained a pretty big role in his respective series, so as much as I want some different Mario characters to appear, if you broke my fingers and made me say which Mario character would be the most likely to get into the new Smash, I'd say Toad. (Not that I don't want Toad to not appear. It's just...... well, I don't care one way or the other, no skin off my bones either way).
Toad certiantly does have moveset potential, though. Based off his appearances and stats in games like Super Mario Bros 2, Super Mario 3D World, and the other times he's had starring roles (purposely not counting Captain Toad, who I consider to be a separate character entirely), I'd see Toad as a hardcore glass cannon, being both fast and hitting like a tank (like Captain Falcon), but at the same time, he's a lightweight who has poor jumping height and an abysmal recovery; basically, he can end you fast, but you can end him just as fast.